Future Tracking From Exhibitors

[Shrykespeare]

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

3/3 Logan 81/225
3/3 The Shack 7/25.6
3/3 Before I Fall 4.2/10.8

3/10 Kong: Skull Island 40/113

3/17 Beauty and the Beast 144/470
3/17 The Belko Experiment 7/16

3/24 Power Rangers 38/110
3/24 CHiPs 16/53
3/24 Life 15/50

3/31 Ghost in the Shell 40/105
3/31 The Boss Baby 24/83
3/31 The Zookeeper's Wife 5/19

4/7 Smurfs: The Lost Village 21.5/78.5
4/7 Going in Style 12.5/49
4/7 The Case for Christ 3.5/14

4/14 The Fate of the Furious 110/264
4/14 Spark 3/7.5

4/21 Unforgettable 10/23.5
4/21 Free Fire 8/24
4/21 Leap! 6/19
4/21 Born in China 5.5/19


Let's discuss their predictions for Beauty and the Beast, shall we? Holy bonkers numbers, Batman!

[Buscemi]

I'm not really seeing the hype for Beauty and the Beast. It feels more like Cinderella than The Jungle Book.

As for some of the other numbers:
- I haven't seen anything for CHiPs. And Dax Shepard is more known for being married to Kristen Bell than anything. I don't think it even hits $20 million.
- Power Rangers only does half that. They basically took camp and took out all the fun of the original series to make it look like something it's not.
- Ghost in the Shell won't hit $100 million. It's not Lucy and the fans of the original will avoid it. Also, Disney and Universal passing on it seems to suggest it's not very good.
- The Fate of the Furious will be bigger. It's the US version of the James Bond movies at this point.
- I'd be surprised if Free Fire hit even a third of that. Ben Wheatley is not a very mainstream director and his last one seemed to get a lot of hate from general audiences.
- Leap! will get pushed again. Weinstein cannot handle a foreign-made animated film to save their lives.

[transformers2]

I actually think $470 mil is attainable Beauty and the Beast. The hype surrounding it is fucking insane and I believe I read somewhere that its presales on Fandango were outselling Finding Dory (which opened with $135 mil and made $486 mil overall).

[undeadmonkey]

I think it's going to beat those projections. It's going to be yuuuge!!

[Shrykespeare]

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

3/10 Kong: Skull Island 40/113

3/17 Beauty and the Beast 144/420
3/17 The Belko Experiment 5/10.5

3/24 Power Rangers 38/110
3/24 CHiPs 16/53
3/24 Life 15/50

3/31 Ghost in the Shell 40/105
3/31 The Boss Baby 24/83
3/31 The Zookeeper's Wife 5/19

4/7 Smurfs: The Lost Village 21.5/78.5
4/7 Going in Style 12.5/49
4/7 The Case for Christ 3.5/14

4/14 The Fate of the Furious 110/264
4/14 Spark 3/7.5

4/21 Unforgettable 10/23.5
4/21 Free Fire 8/24
4/21 Leap! 6/19
4/21 Born in China 5.5/19
4/21 The Promise 2.2/4

4/28 The Circle 13/40
4/28 How to Be a Latin Lover 6.5/22
4/28 Sleight 5/11

[Buscemi]

The Circle will bomb hard. Audiences have not responded well to "technology is evil" movies and the last Tom Hanks/Dave Eggers pairing was one of his lowest grossing films (in addition, James Ponsoldt's films are more niche-appealed). I don't think it even hits $10 million.

Meanwhile, I think they are underestimating How to Be a Latin Lover. Instructions Not Included made $45 million and this one is supposed to be Derbez's breakout role for English-speaking audiences. I can't see this one not making at least $35 million.

[Shrykespeare]

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

3/24 Power Rangers 38/110
3/24 Life 16/50
3/24 CHiPs 10/31

3/31 Ghost in the Shell 37/95
3/31 The Boss Baby 24/83
3/31 The Zookeeper's Wife 5/19

4/7 Smurfs: The Lost Village 21.5/78.5
4/7 Going in Style 12.5/49
4/7 The Case for Christ 3.5/14

4/14 The Fate of the Furious 110/264
4/14 Spark 3/7.5

4/21 Unforgettable 10/23.5
4/21 Free Fire 8/24
4/21 Leap! 6/19
4/21 Born in China 5.5/19
4/21 The Promise 2.2/4

4/28 The Circle 13/40
4/28 How to Be a Latin Lover 6.5/23
4/28 Sleight 5/11

5/5 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 160/400

5/12 King Arthur: Legend of the Sword 23/67
5/12 Snatched 25/85
5/12 Lowriders n/a


Easily one of the most anticipated films of the year, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 at last joins our forecast this week as we take our first peek at the coming summer season.

The sequel is already well on its way to building from the success of its predecessor. Having earned $333.2 million domestically from an impressive $94.3 million debut in August 2014, the first Guardians was the runaway box office smash of its year. It not only kick-started a new franchise for Disney and Marvel, it also confirmed Chris Pratt as a box office star six months after he led the voice cast of The LEGO Movie (a fact compounded the next year by the success of Jurassic World). Guardians arguably remains the studio’s riskiest venture to date, and it paid off in an exceptionally big way.

Pre-release buzz leading up to Vol. 2 brings to mind a similar fervor that followed a budding blockbuster franchise into its first sequel: Pirates of the Caribbean. Like Guardians, the first entry of that series was a summer box office behemoth that very few saw coming. At the time, 2006’s Dead Man’s Chest sequel broke the all-time opening weekend record with its $135.6 million debut (which adjusts to around $179 million with today’s ticket prices).

Although we don’t expect Vol. 2 to approach Star Wars: The Force Awakens‘ existing $248 million record, it’s nonetheless trending for what should be another massive Marvel debut. Social media buzz has been afire with each new trailer release, and numerous audience surveys name it among the likes of Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Beauty and the Beast as one of the films audiences are most looking forward to seeing in 2017.

We’ll be monitoring and updating its box office potential in the months ahead, but for now, everything is firing on all cylinders for writer/director James Gunn’s return to the Guardians‘ corner of the MCU.



Director Guy Ritchie returns with another uniquely stylized period film aiming for mainstream success following 2015’s The Man from U.N.C.L.E. and his very successful two Sherlock Holmes films. Initial trailers have offered up the kind of frenetic energy fans have come to expect from Ritchie’s work, making it well-placed for an early summer release. Timing is crucial, though, and opening against the second weekend of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 is the opposite of an enviable task. Much like Ridley Scott’s Robin Hood opened one week after Iron Man 2 in May 2010, Legend of the Sword will be catering mainly to adult male crowds interested in the filmmaker’s take on the classic character.

For the ladies, Amy Schumer returns with her second feature film as the leading star following her success with 2015’s Trainwreck. Goldie Hawn’s motherly role to Schumer’s character should make this an appealing option for mothers and daughters over Mother’s Day weekend. Pre-release buzz at this time is comparable to that of Melissa McCarthy vehicles Tammy and The Boss.

[numbersix]

Not sure about Snatched opening that high - feels more like cheap counter-programming than a bona-fide Schumer hit.

Also think they're high on Ghost in the Shell and The Circle. Maybe a tad low on Guardians 2 and The Fate of the Furious.

[Buscemi]

Trailer reaction's been dead on Snatched when I've seen the trailer run before other films. It feels as if the film was written for Melissa McCarthy but became a Schumer film when her next project at Universal fell apart. And are audiences today familiar with Goldie Hawn? I understand that this intended to be a return for her in the same way the trio of Furious 7, Bone Tomahawk, and The Hateful Eight were for Kurt Russell two years ago but I don't think she really has had a following the way Kurt has.

It should do well for the Mother's Day weekend but I think it drops fast once word-of-mouth sets in.

As for the other two, King Arthur should do fine despite the many delays (pushing it from March in favor of CHiPs was a very puzzling move by Warner Bros.). I'm not expecting The Legend of Tarzan numbers but it should outdo The Man from UNCLE. And I think Lowriders could surprise. There has yet to be a hit from BH Tilt (or High Top or OTL Releasing or whatever it's called this week) but this should play well in larger markets. Plus, Brian Grazer's involvement suggests a classier than usual product from the label.

[W]

The Boss hit $23.5 M after the disaster of Tammy. I don't see why Snatched won't hit $25 from the goodwill of Trainwreck. Whether it hits $60 M or $90 M will depend on WOM.

The first Guardians was so well received I'm thinking it outdoes Beauty and the Beast's OW, maybe even Civil War.

At those estimates, I'm buying Fast 8, Boss Baby and selling Ghost in the Shell.

[Buscemi]

Tammy quadrupled its budget. Hardly a disaster (and McCarthy herself has a much darker and offbeat sense of humor than the scripts she's given so I think even the studio knew if was going to be a difficult film to sell, leading Warner Bros. to de-emphasize the heart of the film and base the marketing around the gags). The Boss was more of a mix of that Tammy-style of humor with the kinds of films she usually makes (and Life of the Party will more than likely do the same).

The thing with comparing McCarthy to Schumer is that McCarthy's style is a lot easier to sell to audiences. She's a physical-based comedienne and she has an average Jill kind of appeal that brings in those audiences in the markets the industry love to sell to. Schumer is a raunchier comedienne and it seems as if most of her humor is just the same "I just had sex" joke that gets boring after a while, in a way making her really nothing more than a safer Sarah Silverman (and much like Silverman, Schumer is a divisive comedienne). I feel that Trainwreck was really only successful because Universal tried to sell it as Bridesmaids 2 instead of a much more accessible version of Girls where you don't detest the main character (and the world doesn't revolve around Schumer).

From what I saw in the trailer, it feels as if that McCarthy-styled, easy to sell comedy does not fit an edgy comedienne like Schumer. The attempts at humor are also very lazy or lifted from better films (most notably lifting one of the more memorable gags from Spaceballs). It also seems to have some elements of Mary Sueism as well (I personally don't find the opening situation in the trailer very believable, but of course the whole film seems to be based around ridiculous situations).

[Shrykespeare]

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


4/7 Smurfs: The Lost Village 24/81
4/7 Going in Style 12/41
4/7 The Case for Christ 2.25/9

4/14 The Fate of the Furious 118/283
4/14 Spark 2.5/6.3

4/21 Unforgettable 10/23.5
4/21 Free Fire 8/24
4/21 Born in China 5.5/19
4/21 The Promise 2.2/4

4/28 The Circle 13/40
4/28 How to Be a Latin Lover 6.5/23
4/28 Sleight 5/11

5/5 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 160/400

5/12 King Arthur: Legend of the Sword 23/67
5/12 Snatched 25/85
5/12 Lowriders n/a

5/19 Alien: Covenant 35/90
5/19 Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul 10/32
5/19 Everything, Everything 8.5/26

5/26 POTC: Dead Men Tell No Tales 61/170
5/26 Baywatch 35/105



Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales
Disney

Several years and delays in the making, the fifth Captain Jack Sparrow adventure ends a six-year absence of the eponymous pirate from the big screen. The return of Johnny Depp alone should ensure that the film remains a globally viable property, and early reactions to the first trailer have been mostly positive. Fans of the series are looking to be won over again, though, after On Stranger Tides disappointed many die hard viewers. So far, Disney looks to be on the right course, but some further drop-off at the domestic box office is to be expected.


Baywatch
Paramount

Dwayne Johnson has become one of the most reliable box office draws over the last few years, a fact that makes this latest TV-to-film jump one to watch for. Adding Zac Efron into the mix — who proved his comedic chops in the Neighbors films — further validates the R-rated comedic potential of this film when it comes to star power. If the gang have adopted the 21 Jump Street playbook in a way that works for this particular brand, we may be looking at one of the biggest comedies of the summer (if not the year).

[Buscemi]

Baywatch won't come close to $100 million. It's another series that didn't need to get the 21 Jump Street treatment (just like CHiPs) and Zac Efron fatigue has clearly set in after the underperformance of Neighbors 2 and the failure of Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates (also, why is the industry still so convinced he can bring in audiences for male-aimed films?). And trailer reaction has been dead every time I've seen the trailer in a theatre.

It's a film no one asked for and trying to make a parody of a series that was already ridiculous camp to begin with is going to burn Paramount like it has on so many of their in-house flops lately.

As for Pirates of the Caribbean, this is a tired franchise that needs to make millions (though it's more likely to be a billion due to pre-production costs and how these films have never been cheap to begin with) to break even. $170 million is likely the ceiling but I think it goes much lower.

[Shrykespeare]

I disagree about POTC. I think it could do quite well. True, it runs up against Wonder Woman for the action crowd (and then The Mummy a week after that), but every now and then something comes along and surprises, like Jurassic World (which basically told the same damn story as all the other ones). It's been six years since On Stranger Tides, and I think the addition of Bardem could be another asset.

[Buscemi]

Jurassic World had 90's nostalgia on its side. Pirates of the Caribbean has a long cooled-off Johnny Depp (and has Bardem really ever carried a film in the US?). It's also another film with a bad trailer (it barely has any semblance of plot and doesn't even bother to mention the title) and though it mentions it's the last one, I'd say the franchise ended with At World's End (which was supposed to be the last one before Disney rewrote On Stranger Tides as a Jack Sparrow vehicle) for a lot of people.

Outside of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, May looks like a disaster and if the WGA strike runs long, things might take some time to improve.