Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Discuss weekly box office numbers, PTA numbers, and date changes.

Moderators: Buscemi, BarcaRulz, Geezer, W

User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
Posts: 14273
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

10/13 Happy Death Day 20/40
10/13 The Foreigner 10/31
10/13 Marshall 6/17.9

10/20 Boo 2! A Madea Halloween 23.5/59.3
10/20 Only the Brave 14/48
10/20 The Snowman 11.5/34.7
10/20 Geostorm 11/25.5
10/20 Same Kind of Different as Me 4/10.7

10/27 Jigsaw 13.5/29
10/27 Suburbicon 10/32
10/27 Thank You For Your Service 5/17.5
10/28 All I See is You

11/1 A Bad Moms Christmas 22/85
11/3 Thor: Ragnarok 100/250

11/10 Daddy's Home 2 30/95
11/10 Murder on the Orient Express 23.5/88

11/17 Justice League 150/330
11/17 Wonder 16/65
11/17 The Star 13/60

11/22 Coco 60/270 (Fri-Sun, opening Wed.)
11/22 Polaroid 2.5/7



This Week’s Notes

While we aren’t updating forecasts for Happy Death Day until next week, it continues to show very healthy signs across tracking. Its Friday the 13th opening will no doubt increase front-loading to opening night, but we wouldn’t rule out an opening weekend even higher than $20 million at this point. Final forecasts to follow next week.

Social buzz for Marshall, as well as marketing outreach, doesn’t appear to be as strong as once hoped. The film is currently trending more closely to the likes of Detroit and The Birth of a Nation rather than fellow Chadwick Boseman-led Get On Up. With the studio’s decision to no longer open it in wide release, we’re significantly lowering forecasts.

The weekend of October 20 remains muddied with five films slated to open in wide release. We still expect Boo 2! to lead the weekend, although The Snowman is slowly making gains. Geostorm is tracking behind Gods of Egypt, while Only the Brave continues to post lukewarm social media growth.

Chappaquiddick has been slated for a Thanksgiving weekend release from Entertainment Studios. Due to their limited history as a distributor, we’re holding off on official forecasts at this time.

Wide release dates for Death Wish and Molly’s Game have been shifted to 2018 by their respective studios and removed from the current forecast.

Now slated to open ahead of Thanksgiving weekend, Polaroid is likely to misfire given the amount of competition in the November market and the horror genre’s poor history around the holiday corridor in recent years (last year’s Incarnate, for example). Still, we wouldn’t completely rule out a last-minute surge in interest closer to release if marketing and reviews can strike the right tone.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

User avatar
Buscemi2
Mad Max
Posts: 6663
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

Marshall won't open that well in just 800 theatres. I'm thinking $2-3 million is more likely.

Chappaquiddick going wide is a puzzling decision, as the only audience for it seems to be old conservatives and most of them rarely see movies in the theatre (in addition, nothing's out for it so close to release). That $10 million spent on it's not going to be made back.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
Posts: 14273
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

10/20 Boo 2! A Madea Halloween 22/57
10/20 Only the Brave 13/44.6
10/20 The Snowman 11.5/34.7
10/20 Geostorm 12/27.8
10/20 Same Kind of Different as Me 3.7/1

10/27 Jigsaw 15/32.2
10/27 Suburbicon 10/32
10/27 Thank You For Your Service 5/17.5
10/28 All I See is You

11/1 A Bad Moms Christmas 22/85
11/3 Thor: Ragnarok 105/269

11/10 Daddy's Home 2 30/95
11/10 Murder on the Orient Express 23.5/88

11/17 Justice League 150/330
11/17 Wonder 16/65
11/17 The Star 13/60

11/22 Coco 60/270 (Fri-Sun, opening Wed.)
11/22 Polaroid 2.5/7
11/22 The Man Who Invented Christmas n/a

12/8 Just Getting Started (Villa Capri?) 8/36



PROS:

Just Getting Started (Broad Green Pictures) brings together Morgan Freeman, Tommy Lee Jones, and Rene Russo in an action comedy that could appeal well to older audiences, ala the likes of Going In Style and Last Vegas. Reviews and distribution plans will be key to the film’s long term prospects, but as a counter-programming option in the heart of holiday season, we expect it to perform on par with the aforementioned titles.

CONS:

One of the bigger question marks around Just Getting Started will be its distributor’s release strategy. The studio is still finding its footing after the disappointing runs of Wish Upon over the summer and Bad Santa 2 last year. The hope is that this title will at least be able to perform well relative to its presumably low budget.


This Week’s Changes & Other Notes

October 20’s releases continue to indicate signs of opening within a close proximity to each other. The exception of Boo 2! A Madea Halloween remains relatively strong, although we still expect it to decline from the first Boo!‘s debut. Only the Brave‘s forecast has slightly decreased due to recent social media growth, however, early screenings this weekend could again shift things in its favor before next Friday.

Jigsaw continues to show improving signs ahead of release later this month.

Thor: Ragnarok‘s marketing campaign has heated up early, with unofficial word from industry screenings suggesting this is another Marvel title audiences are going to fall in love with. If official reviews surge into the stratosphere when the embargo lifts, this may be a forecast that continues climbing upward.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

User avatar
Buscemi2
Mad Max
Posts: 6663
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

Yes, Just Getting Started is Villa Capri.

Interesting that they don't mention that Broad Green is no more and is only still around to distribute their remaining films. After this one (and whatever straight-to-DVD projects they produced before folding), they will be nothing more a distant memory and a cautionary tale of overspending at the festivals.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
Posts: 14273
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

10/27 Jigsaw 12/25.8
10/27 Suburbicon 8.5/27
10/27 Thank You For Your Service 5/17.5
10/28 All I See is You

11/1 A Bad Moms Christmas 22/85
11/3 Thor: Ragnarok 105/269

11/10 Daddy's Home 2 27/85.5
11/10 Murder on the Orient Express 25/94

11/17 Justice League 150/330
11/17 Wonder 16/65
11/17 The Star 13/60

11/22 Coco 60/270 (Fri-Sun, opening Wed.)
11/22 Polaroid 2.5/7
11/22 The Man Who Invented Christmas n/a

12/8 Just Getting Started 8/36

12/15 Star Wars: The Last Jedi 215/742
12/15 Ferdinand 20/150



Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Disney / Lucasfilm


PROS:

It’s Star Wars. The family component remains as strong as ever now that multiple generations of fans have embraced the new saga centered around Rey, Kylo Ren, Poe Dameron, and Finn. With Mark Hamill’s Luke Skywalker at the forefront of things this time around, and the late Carrie Fisher in her final role as General Leia, older fans will be eager to see their stories continue as well.

The film’s trailers have again excited die hard and casual fans alike. Twitter activity is comparable to that of The Force Awakens shortly after its October 2015 trailer release, while also coming in significantly ahead of last year’s Rogue One at the same point in the pre-release window.

Writer/director Rian Johnson is a highly respected and successful young filmmaker with creative credentials including Looper, Brick, and several highly acclaimed episodes of Breaking Bad. His involvement and direct input into this chapter’s creative direction have inspired a strong sense of encouragement among fans about what to expect from the franchise’s continuation.

As evidenced by last year’s Rogue One, the enduring appeal and cultural impact of Star Wars continues to transcend other franchises as even its spin-off films without established, familiar characters perform at a level most series never reach at their peak. With another return to the core saga films this year, Last Jedi should again reach heights achieved by very few films — pending positive word of mouth and reviews, of course.


CONS:

It’s Star Wars. No, that’s not a bad thing, but it does mean expectations will be astronomically high. Regardless of general sentiment, there will always be some sect of the audience not as thrilled with the final product as others. The phenomenal run by The Force Awakens to become the highest grossing domestic film of all-time will inevitably result in comparisons to Last Jedi‘s box office performance. It’s an apples-to-oranges benchmark, though, given that this is clearly known to be the middle chapter of a trilogy. Presumably, this will provide the fewest “standalone movie” characteristics of the new episodes — ala The Empire Strikes Back and Attack of the Clones, middle chapters that became the “lowest” box office performers of the previous trilogies. As such, any suggestion that this film would have under-performed in the event that it falls well short of TFA‘s records and/or lifetime gross should be wholly ignored.


Ferdinand
Fox / Blue Sky


PROS:

Blue Sky Animation and director Carlos Saldanha have a strong track record with the past successes of the Ice Age and Rio franchises. Of the eleven films released under the studio’s banner, ten of them have gone on to earn $100 million or more domestically.

The strong ensemble voice cast led by John Cena’s titular character lends itself to parental appeal, a key to success when it comes to animated breakouts — particularly around the holiday season.

As the only other major studio animated offering through the holidays besides Disney/Pixar’s Coco, family crowds will likely gravitate toward this over Christmas and New Year’s.

CONS:

The character — based on a little known 20th century animated property — doesn’t have the built-in awareness among kids to turn this into a huge debut out of the gate.
Likewise, opening weekend competition is stiff (to say the least) as plenty of family audiences will be turning out for Star Wars. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle will similarly be aiming for family audiences when it debuts closer to Christmas.

While healthy in general, social media activity currently lags behind that of last year’s Sing — particularly on Facebook.


This Week’s Changes & Other Notes

Jigsaw buzz has stagnated somewhat in recent days. As we continue expecting the Netflix release of Stranger Things Season 2 to keep many horror fans home over opening weekend, we’ve our lowered expectations for the franchise reboot.

Suburbicon has yet to build traction across social media. The film’s mixed reviews heading into a crowded November also remain a concern.

Daddy’s Home 2 remains a candidate to perform fairly well, but the recent history of comedic sequels again plays into our reasoning for lowered forecasts.

Murder on the Orient Express is building steam (no pun intended) ahead of its debut as marketing begins to peak. Social media trends are very encouraging. This is definitely an adult-friendly counter-programmer to keep an eye on.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

User avatar
Buscemi2
Mad Max
Posts: 6663
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

I wouldn't exactly think of Jigsaw and Stranger Things as having the same audience. Stranger Things is 80's Nostalgia: The Series while Jigsaw is playing to a younger crowd. Also, the way Happy Death Day dropped so quickly suggests that there is a market for another horror film.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

User avatar
W
Norman Bates
Posts: 7242
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 4:37 pm

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by W »

65% is fairly standard for a horror movie. Maybe on the high side of standard. It may not look like it this year with the three big horror breakouts (Split, Get Out, It). Those went mainstream and got people that don't typically frequent horror (like me). Basically everyone that's itching to see something like HDD shows up the first three days making the second weekend drop large. It'll probably end up around where The Shack did, but it's audience (older/conservative/Christian) will typically wait causing small drops. So it's 38% first weekend drop doesn't mean people are clamoring for the next Christian film (The Case for Christ) nor does it's $16 M OW mean it failed right off the bat.

Basically I don't think a 65% drop for HDD means anything for Jigsaw. It's October and I expect Jigsaw to have an inflated opening weekend and drop hard next weekend when you turn the calendar page.

I could, though, see Stranger Things impacting Jigsaw. It's free (with subscription) and horror fans DO like it. It drops the exact day of release and is one of the most binged things out there. If people are binging it, they may not get out to see Jigsaw. Some people that want to do Halloween stuff this weekend will absolutely be choosing between the two.
Tenet: Criterion Edition. Now with more Backwards Man.

User avatar
Buscemi2
Mad Max
Posts: 6663
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

Hmm, I could have sworn it dropped harder. Must have been looking at the Friday-to-Friday numbers (that was around 74%).
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

User avatar
undeadmonkey
Leon
Posts: 4413
Joined: October 22nd, 2009, 1:39 pm

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by undeadmonkey »

Yea, Jigsaw might do ok opening weekend but will fall off the face of the map after this weekend.

User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
Posts: 14273
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


11/1 A Bad Moms Christmas 17.5/64
11/3 Thor: Ragnarok 109/280

11/10 Daddy's Home 2 24/76
11/10 Murder on the Orient Express 25/94

11/17 Justice League 130/312
11/17 Wonder 16/55
11/17 The Star 13/60

11/22 Coco 60/270 (Fri-Sun, opening Wed.)
11/22 Polaroid 2.5/7
11/22 The Man Who Invented Christmas n/a

12/8 Just Getting Started 8/36

12/15 Star Wars: The Last Jedi 215/742
12/15 Ferdinand 20/150

12/20 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle 22/175
12/20 The Greatest Showman 11/75
12/22 Pitch Perfect 3 40/136
12/22 Downsizing 10/59
12/22 Father Figures 7/41




PROS:

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle has significant advantages in its favor: the combined star power of Dwayne Johnson, Kevin Hart, and Jack Black (not to mention Karen Gillan of Guardians of the Galaxy and Doctor Who fame), a release pattern similar to 2006’s Night at the Museum when Christmas last fell on a Monday, and what we think will be a healthy amount of nostalgic goodwill from the original 1995 film starring Robin Williams — which was a massive holiday sleeper hit that many 20- and 30-something audiences grew up on. Adjusted for inflation, that movie earned over $204 million domestically, which gives some indication of the potential here among family crowds.

Downsizing will aim for adult and arthouse audiences with stars Matt Damon and Kristen Wiig in writer/director Alexander Payne’s newest project. An awards push for the satirical sci-fi/fantasy drama could give it some longevity at the box office into early 2018.

Pitch Perfect 3 will rally fans of the franchise in what is reported to be the final film of the series (starring the current cast, anyway). A holiday release should help pad staying power relative to the second film’s slightly front-loaded run, especially as one of the season’s few releases with strong appeal to women.

Father Figures is aiming to serve as the holiday corridor’s adult comedy option for those of age. A solid first trailer suggests some modest potential as a counter-programmer.

CONS:

The biggest hurdles for the Jumanji sequel to overcome will clearly be competition for family crowds against the holdover business of Star Wars: The Last Jedi, as well as general sentiment for how the film stands up to the 1995 original.

Downsizing‘s initial reviews — while mostly positive — suggest it may be slightly esoteric for mainstream audiences, similar to the way 2003’s Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind succeeded in greater ways critically and on the awards circuit than it necessarily did at the box office.

As comedy sequels go, it’s rare for a franchise to improve upon itself once — let alone twice. We expect some diminished returns for Pitch Perfect 3 compared to the second film, but the perspective of this still generating a strong run relative to expenses and the first film’s unexpected sleeper success is important to keep in mind.

Father Figures may have a tougher time finding the kind of audience as Why Him? last Christmas, but reviews and word of mouth will ultimately be what matters.


This Week’s Changes & Other Notes

Thor: Ragnarok‘s strong reviews and marketing continue to impress, while traditional tracking has reportedly (but unconfirmed) now pegged it for a debut north of $120 million. Still, with Twitter activity closely mirroring that of Doctor Strange and trailing Spider-Man: Homecoming, we’re a bit more cautious with our increased forecasts this week.

In addition to competing for the female portion of Thor‘s audience, A Bad Moms Christmas has shown social media patterns consistent with that of Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising. As such, we’re slightly lowering expectations ahead of next week’s release.

On a similar track as A Bad Moms Christmas, Daddy’s Home 2 remains a candidate to follow in the footsteps of other comedy sequels to perform a bit more modestly than originally expected — particularly with increasing optimism around Murder on the Orient Express the same weekend.

While measurable Twitter activity trails that of both Suicide Squad and Wonder Woman at this stage, Justice League‘s first “traditional” industry tracking this week is in line with the former and noticeably ahead of the latter. We’ve lowered forecasts to more closely match those expectations for now, although reviews could still sway things again in either direction throughout the coming weeks.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

User avatar
Buscemi2
Mad Max
Posts: 6663
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

I think Joss Whedon's involvement will help Justice League. The falling out between him and Marvel hurt things a bit for them while Warner Bros. snatching him up to handle post-production and direct pick-up shots (I seem to recall reading that the DGA will credit both him and Zack Snyder as co-directors) as well as a future entry (reportedly Batgirl) will help the DCEU. I have a feeling it will pass Batman v. Superman but maybe not Wonder Woman due to the tougher competition.

Meanwhile, I can't see the new Jumanji doing that well. Too many family options for the Holidays and it doesn't have the 90's nostalgia interest Jurassic World and Beauty and the Beast had.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
Posts: 14273
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

11/17 Justice League 130/312
11/17 Wonder 16/55
11/17 The Star 12/44

11/22 Coco 60/270 (Fri-Sun, opening Wed.)
11/22 Polaroid 2.5/7
11/22 The Man Who Invented Christmas n/a

12/8 Just Getting Started 8/36

12/15 Star Wars: The Last Jedi 215/742
12/15 Ferdinand 20/150

12/20 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle 22/175
12/20 The Greatest Showman 11/75
12/22 Pitch Perfect 3 40/136
12/22 Downsizing 10/59
12/22 Father Figures 7/41

1/5 Insidious: The Last Key 19.5/34.5
1/5 Molly's Game (wide) 6/21



Minimal marketing and mixed social media awareness for The Star have lowered expectations for that film, particularly with Pixar’s Coco — opening five days later — trending well and generating strong early reviews.

Insidious: The Last Key will likely benefit from the recent wave of horror success, but the franchise’s declining returns and a history of horror titles with short staying power in early January are the main factors behind our current forecast.

Molly’s Game‘s limited release throughout December will be key to determining how much mainstream potential it has upon expanding in January. At the very least, fans of Jessica Chastain and writer/director Aaron Sorkin are expected to turn out for the strongly reviewed film. A strong award season push could significantly improve box office prospects.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

User avatar
W
Norman Bates
Posts: 7242
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 4:37 pm

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by W »

Still at $270 for Coco? I don’t see it. Bottom six for PIXAR (sub-200), I’m thinking, and maybe lower than Cars 3 (second worst sub-150).
Tenet: Criterion Edition. Now with more Backwards Man.

User avatar
Buscemi2
Mad Max
Posts: 6663
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

Reviews have been fantastic and it's going to play well in Latin American-heavy markets (in Mexico, it's already the fourth highest grossing film this year and it just opened two weeks ago there). It also has that Frozen short attached to it (bringing the final run time to over two hours) and we all know how kids love that snowman.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
Posts: 14273
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

11/22 Coco 60/270 (Fri-Sun, opening Wed.)
11/22 The Man Who Invented Christmas n/a
11/22 Roman J. Israel, Esq. n/a

12/8 Just Getting Started 8/36
12/8 The Disaster Artist n/a

12/15 Star Wars: The Last Jedi 215/742
12/15 Ferdinand 20/150

12/20 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle 22/175
12/20 The Greatest Showman 11/75
12/22 Pitch Perfect 3 40/136
12/22 Downsizing 10/59
12/22 Father Figures 7/41

1/5 Insidious: The Last Key 19.5/34.5
1/5 Molly's Game (wide) 6/21

1/12 The Post (expansion) 20/90
1/12 Paddington 2 19/70
1/12 Proud Mary 17/55
1/12 The Commuter 12/31
1/12 Condorito: La Pelicula 5/12.5




PROS:

The Post will open in limited release in December as part of what is expected to be a strong award season candidacy. The powerhouse trio of director Steven Spielberg with stars Meryl Streep and Tom Hanks in a true journalistic drama about the Pentagon Papers cover-up is seemingly poised to become a ‘movie of the moment’ in light of current real world events.

Proud Mary will aim to leverage Taraji P. Henson’s considerable fan base into a solid performance over MLK weekend in a film that may also appeal to fans of female actioners like Atomic Blonde and Lucy.

Paddington 2 follows on the heels of 2015’s successful live action adaptation and has already garnered strong early reviews and an excellent debut in the United Kingdom. As 2018’s first major animated release — and the first since Ferdinand one month earlier — it should have room for another solid U.S. run.

The Commuter reunites Liam Neeson with director Jaume Collet-Serra after their success with Non-Stop and Unknown. The director is also fresh off last year’s The Shallows as his resume continues to build a string of mid-range hits driven by word of mouth.

Condorito: La Pelicula will hope to appeal to Latino families with young children over the extended holiday weekend.


CONS:

For all its prestige characteristics, The Post will still need to convince audiences that a journalistic drama is must-see material on the big screen after the modest box office run of 2015’s Best Picture winner, Spotlight. Some audience aversion to political divisiveness in the world today could also spillover into impacting broader moviegoer interests toward the film.

Proud Mary‘s early social media activity is mixed, though that isn’t surprising for a title whose marketing has barely begun. The modest run of Atomic Blonde also gives us pause on predicting an even larger breakout here for now.

In general, animated sequels expand upon their predecessors’ runs almost as often as the opposite occurs. If films like Ferdinand and Coco are still playing strongly come January, they could limit demand for Paddington 2.

Initial social media trends for The Commuter are well below past Neeson-led actioners, falling more in line with Jackie Chan’s The Foreigner at the same point before release. Meanwhile, competition for the adult audience will be stiff against The Post and other holiday holdovers.

Condorito hails from Lionsgate, whose animated projects have unfortunately yielded underwhelming results at the box office to date (see Rock Dog, The Wild Life, and Norm of the North).




Dang. I'm hoping for slightly better numbers for The Commuter than that. I think they're a little high on Proud Mary (so far). The rest seems legit.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

Post Reply