Future Tracking From Exhibitors

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Screen203
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Screen203 »

I feel like Abominable could do better than most people expect. It has a strong preview that got a good reaction when I saw Pets, and it's arguably Universal's last major release of the year. I could see it doing 100 million.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by NicodemustheSage »

Agreed. "Abominable" is looking like a top-tier non-Pixar animated release. Wouldn't be surprised to see this one do $130M. A fantastic pick.

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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

I seem to be missing something with Abominable. Smallfoot had similar themes and failed to hit $100 million. And there was Missing Link possibly killing Laika with a gross under $20 million. So how is Abominable going to break the string of Yeti movies not making bank?

Also, the film looks low-rent and not up to par for DreamWorks.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


6/21 Toy Story 4 151/495
6/21 Child's Play 17/42.5
6/21 Anna 4.5/11

6/26 Annabelle Comes Home 31/101
6/28 Yesterday n/a

7/2 Spider-Man: Far From Home 90-120/405

7/12 Stuber 17.5/65
7/12 Crawl 18/47

7/19 The Lion King 201/650

7/26 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 50/165
7/26 Brahms: The Boy 2 n/a

8/2 Hobbs & Shaw 100/245

8/9 Dora and the Lost City of Gold 28/85
8/9 The Kitchen 11.5/34.5
8/9 Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark 10/26.5
8/9 The Art of Racing in the Rain 8.5/32
8/9 Brian Banks n/a





PROS:

Based on another best-selling book, The Art of Racing in the Rain will adapt author Garth Stein’s family-friendly story in hopes of achieving the kind of success enjoyed by the big screen version of W. Bruce Cameron’s A Dog’s Purpose two years ago. This Is Us star Milo Ventimiglia and the voice of Kevin Costner could add some star appeal.

Dora and the Lost City Gold brings to the famous Dora the Explorer franchise to life on the big screen for the first time. Not only could this adventure film present a strong option for kids and tweens before school starts back, we expect strong interest from Latinx families in general — in part thanks to stars Isabela Moner (Instant Family, Transformers: The Last Knight) and Eugenio Derbez (Overboard, Instructions Not Included).

The Kitchen unites a strong female ensemble of Melissa McCarthy, Elisabeth Moss, and Tiffany Haddish in an adaptation of the DC/Vertigo comic book series. That trio could help the film counter-program among adults if positive reviews/word of mouth come to fruition.

Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark adapts Alvin Schwartz’s series of horror books aimed at children, which will be most familiar to older millennials given their publication in the 1980s.


CONS:

Dog-centric films have proliferated theaters in recent years, and have generally seen diminishing returns. While A Dog’s Purpose was a solid success, this year’s A Dog’s Way Home and A Dog’s Journey have performed more modestly. That trend may easily carry over to Art of Racing.

Dora‘s primary source of competition will open one week later in the form of The Angry Birds Movie 2, which will hope to draw young kids during the final days of summer. The potential staying power of July’s The Lion King could also be a minor factor even in mid-August.

Adult-aimed adaptations of relatively obscure comic book titles have had a mixed history trying to find commercial success at the box office. While films like RED and V for Vendetta stood out in the past, examples like The Losers and Jonah Hex give enough reason for caution. The Kitchen also boasts a similar premise as last year’s Widows, which fell below box office hopes despite critical acclaim — while McCarthy herself recently wasn’t enough to change the fate of another late summer, adult-aimed, under-performer (The Happytime Murders).

A plethora of horror films will be opening this summer, including The Boy 2 in late July and 47 Meters Down: Uncaged one week after Scary Stories debuts. Given those circumstances and early trailer reactions, we’re cautious on forecasts at this time.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


6/26 Annabelle Comes Home 31/101
6/28 Yesterday 10/?

7/2 Spider-Man: Far From Home 120/405
7/3 Midsommar n/a

7/12 Stuber 17.5/65
7/12 Crawl 18/47

7/19 The Lion King 201/650

7/26 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 50/165
7/26 Brahms: The Boy 2 n/a

8/2 Hobbs & Shaw 100/245

8/9 Dora and the Lost City of Gold 28/85
8/9 The Kitchen 11.5/34.5
8/9 Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark 10/26.5
8/9 The Art of Racing in the Rain 8.5/32
8/9 Brian Banks n/a

8/14 The Angry Birds Movie 2 19/70
8/14 Blinded By the Light n/a
8/16 Good Boys 15/43
8/16 47 Meters Down: Uncaged 15/39
8/16 The Informer n/a
8/16 Where'd You Go, Bernadette 11/45




PROS:

The Angry Birds Movie 2, opening on Wednesday, August 14, will offer up the final animated pic of summer for kids before school resumes session, and there could be enough distance between it and July’s The Lion King to allow for a solid turnout by the young ones and their parents. The first film earned a respectable $107.5 million throughout its domestic run in early summer 2016.

47 Meters Down: Uncaged looks to build on the sleeper success of its predecessor ($44.3 million off an $11.2 million opening) two years ago with a late summer release that targets teens and young adults. Shark films have seen a mini-resurgence at the box office over the past few summers with the original film, as well as 2016’s The Shallows and last year’s The Meg.

Good Boys will hope to attract fans of raunchy R-rated humor with the added branding of producer Seth Rogen’s Point Grey Pictures behind it. Early industry screenings were met with very enthusiastic reactions earlier this year, suggesting potential for a late summer sleeper in the vein of Sausage Party.

Where’d You Go, Bernadette? will counter-program the younger-leaning releases of the weekend with director Richard Linklater’s latest likely to draw arthouse moviegoers, his own fans, and those of author Maria Semple’s original best-selling novel. With Cate Blanchett in the lead of a solid ensemble, this could be positioned for a healthy run into early autumn.


CONS:

Although a fair performer, the original Angry Birds Movie earned just a 2.81x multiplier from its $38.2 million opening weekend in May 2016 — abnormally low for a non-sequel animation. That suggests word of mouth wasn’t strong enough to kindle enough demand for a sequel to match the first film’s performance. We’re also cautious with Birds 2‘s proximity to Dora and the Lost City of Gold, plus the recent under-performance of a similar August animated release, The Emoji Movie.

It’s typically challenging for horror/thriller sequels to live up to the performance of their breakout predecessors, underscoring current forecasts for 47 Meters Down: Uncaged. Still, with another modest budget, it should be in position to achieve financial success.

Good Boys will have a challenging time selling tickets to a sizable portion of its target audience (teens and tweens) given the hard R-rating of the comedy. While that hasn’t prevented August releases like Sausage Party and Superbad from excelling in the past, word of mouth will be crucial among adult audiences for this reach the box office heights of those films. The recent under-performance of the widely acclaimed Booksmart is another cautionary tale.

Adult-aimed dramedy releases have a mixed history in late summer with many prospective audiences fitting in their last chance for summer vacations. While comparable titles like Eat Pray Love and Julie & Julia found considerable success upfront and continued to build from there, recent titles like Florence Foster Jenkins and The Hundred-foot Journey saw varying degrees of box office power despite their popular leads and built-in appeal.
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Buscemi2
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

Where Did You Go, Bernadette? is being way overestimated. United Artists hasn't had a hit, the film's been on the shelf forever, and who is the audience for this besides bored rich people?

The film won't even hit $10 million total.

Meanwhile, does anyone remember the first 47 Meters Down? I'm thinking Uncaged plays like The Hurricane Heist did last year.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by undeadmonkey »

Yesterday had a really good first trailer, but i feel like they didn't know where to go with it after that. hopefully that's not indicative of the movie

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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

I have a feeling the marketing is based on what Americans love that's English. The Beatles, Richard Curtis, James Corden, Ed Sheeran. And they throw in the inexplicably popular Kate McKinnon in there.

Anyway, I've noticed how the plot of Yesterday makes little sense. If Jack is the only person who knows the Beatles songbook, wouldn't he do the albums exactly how they did it? Why start with their later hits? Say that he remains the only one in knowledge with the songs, he's bound to fall into the same pitfalls every other popular act does by doing all the big ones early.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Buscemi2 wrote:I have a feeling the marketing is based on what Americans love that's English. The Beatles, Richard Curtis, James Corden, Ed Sheeran. And they throw in the inexplicably popular Kate McKinnon in there.

Anyway, I've noticed how the plot of Yesterday makes little sense. If Jack is the only person who knows the Beatles songbook, wouldn't he do the albums exactly how they did it? Why start with their later hits? Say that he remains the only one in knowledge with the songs, he's bound to fall into the same pitfalls every other popular act does by doing all the big ones early.
Depends on how well the guy truly knows the Beatles. If he's a staunch superfan who has every single one of their albums, has memorized every single song, and can remember the exact order they released them, yes. I've been a Beatles fan my whole life, but I couldn't tell you what hit was on which album and when each one came out. Obviously, if I were in the same position as this guy, I'd start with the biggest hits, because that's all I remember.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Chienfantome »

Yeah, Bernadette is wayyyyyyyyy overrated in terms of box-office prediction here. No way it does that much.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


7/2 Spider-Man: Far From Home 120/405
7/3 Midsommar n/a

7/12 Stuber 17.5/65
7/12 Crawl 18/47

7/19 The Lion King 201/650

7/26 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 50/165
7/26 Brahms: The Boy 2 n/a

8/2 Hobbs & Shaw 100/245

8/9 Dora and the Lost City of Gold 28/85
8/9 The Kitchen 11.5/34.5
8/9 Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark 10/26.5
8/9 The Art of Racing in the Rain 8.5/32
8/9 Brian Banks n/a

8/14 The Angry Birds Movie 2 19/70
8/14 Blinded By the Light n/a
8/16 Good Boys 15/43
8/16 47 Meters Down: Uncaged 15/39
8/16 The Informer n/a
8/16 Where'd You Go, Bernadette 11/45

8/23 Angel Has Fallen 12/49
8/23 My Spy 9/30
8/23 Overcomer 6.5/24
8/23 Ready or Not n/a





PROS:

Angel Has Fallen should attract fans of the previous films in the franchise (Olympus Has Fallen and London Has Fallen) with stars Gerard Butler and Morgan Freeman returning to their roles. Since this will be the fourth weekend of Hobbs & Shaw, competition for the target male audience could also be diminished by this point on the calendar.

My Spy will mark Dave Bautista’s second comedy this summer as the STX release hopes to attract his fans with a role that could be appealing to father/daughter moviegoers.

Overcomer will aim to repeat the success of Alex and Stephen Kendrick’s previous faith-based box office winners like War Room, Courageous, and Fireproof. The brothers have become a well-known draw among that target audience.


CONS:

Angel Has Fallen may endure some diminished returns from its predecessor, which itself earned 37 percent less domestically than Olympus Has Fallen in its original breakout run. Meanwhile, early metrics for My Spy and Overcomer are noticeably modest.
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Screen203
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Screen203 »

I feel like My Spy could be a bit of a sleeper. The previews always get good reactions in theaters.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

I think Overcomer does better and My Spy does less. The Kendrick Brothers average $36 million and the Evangelicals eat up their work. Meanwhile, My Spy looks like a cheap knockoff of The Pacifier and Bautista's really more of a character actor than a leading man (he's also starting to get overexposed). I figure Teenage Dora, Kevin Costner Voices a Dog, and More Angry Birds will get the less religiously-inclined families.

Also, I can't see Ready or Not making more than $10 million. This one has studio dump written all over it.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


7/12 Stuber 17/63
7/12 Crawl 15/39

7/19 The Lion King 201/650

7/26 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 50/165
7/26 Brahms: The Boy 2 n/a

8/2 Hobbs & Shaw 100/245

8/9 Dora and the Lost City of Gold 28/85
8/9 The Kitchen 11.5/34.5
8/9 Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark 10/26.5
8/9 The Art of Racing in the Rain 8.5/32
8/9 Brian Banks n/a

8/14 The Angry Birds Movie 2 19/70
8/14 Blinded By the Light n/a
8/16 Good Boys 15/43
8/16 47 Meters Down: Uncaged 15/39
8/16 The Informer n/a
8/16 Where'd You Go, Bernadette 11/45

8/23 Angel Has Fallen 12/49
8/23 My Spy 9/30
8/23 Overcomer 6.5/24
8/23 Ready or Not n/a

8/30 PLAYMOBIL: The Movie 4/10





Playmobil: The Movie
Opening Weekend Range: $3 – 9 million (4-day)

PROS:

Based on the German toy line, this feature film adaptation will make a play for kiddie audiences over the extended Labor Day weekend. STX’s recent pick-up of the film from Global Road could lead to a fair marketing campaign that might help raise otherwise minimal awareness later this summer.

CONS:

With Angry Birds 2 and Dora and the Lost City of Gold likely to remain solid holdovers by this point on the calendar — plus the consideration of the LEGO Movie franchise having tapped a similar market already in recent years — we’re bearish on domestic prospects for this release.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


7/19 The Lion King 201/650

7/26 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 48/158.5

8/2 Hobbs & Shaw 94/230

8/9 Dora and the Lost City of Gold 28/85
8/9 The Kitchen 11.5/34.5
8/9 Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark 10/26.5
8/9 The Art of Racing in the Rain 8.5/32
8/9 Brian Banks n/a

8/14 The Angry Birds Movie 2 19/70
8/14 Blinded By the Light n/a
8/16 Good Boys 15/43
8/16 47 Meters Down: Uncaged 15/39
8/16 The Informer n/a
8/16 Where'd You Go, Bernadette 11/45

8/23 Angel Has Fallen 12/49
8/23 Overcomer 6.5/24
8/23 Ready or Not n/a

8/30 PLAYMOBIL: The Movie 4/10

9/6 It: Chapter Two 136/305




It: Chapter Two
Opening Weekend Range: $110 – 150 million

Two years ago, It rocked the early autumn box office with a record opening weekend for the horror genre to the tune of $123.4 million, the first September release to ever pass the nine-digit mark. This year, Warner Bros. and New Line look to achieve a similar feat with the second and final part of Stephen King’s epic novel, It: Chapter Two, when it opens on September 6.

Not only did the first film crack the genre’s opening record — as well as the second highest R-rated debut ever, behind Deadpool‘s $132.4 million — it went on to surpass The Exorcist ($232.9 million) as the highest grossing horror pic in domestic history with $327.5 million. That’s not accounting for inflation, of course.

The first film was an instant smash for a variety of reasons: King’s original novel is one of the most popular in his vast oeuvre and horror literature at-large. It’s come to be considered classic — not just because of his original book, but also the popular 1990 television miniseries. The first trailer smashed internet records for the genre as the modern adaptation captured the type of nostalgic appeal which has driven a number of blockbusters at theaters in recent years. In the process, a new generation of young horror fans were introduced to the now-iconic Pennywise and the Losers club.

Worth noting is that the first film was somewhat front-loaded in the end, earning a (still very strong) 2.65x multiple off its domestic launch. (Globally, it reached a massive $700.4 million.) That domestic split is worthy of keeping in mind as most “first installment” horror films tend to be leggier than that (for example, The Conjuring earned a 3.28x multiple). Then again, not only was It only half of a film, it’s hard to compare that pic to a wholly original film given the built-in fan base that rushed out on opening weekend.

With director Andy Muschietti returning, the promise of this being the end of the story, and — perhaps most intriguingly — an ensemble cast with several popular adult actors the likes of Jessica Chastain, James McAvoy, and Bill Hader taking over their kid counterpart roles, there may arguably be just as much of a “must see” status for Chapter Two as there was for the first film. Perhaps, initially, even more of one.

As always, long-term playability will come down to word of mouth and how fans feel the story does justice to King’s complete novel once the narrative of both films are completely wrapped. Online buzz and social media trends following the first trailer release have been nothing short of positive, which are good indicators that It: Chapter Two not only has a chance to reach $100 million or more in its debut again, but it may have a fair shot at the R-rated benchmark held by the aforementioned Deadpool.

Another element in the sequel’s favor: not only is it the only true tentpole on the calendar between early August’s Hobbs & Shaw and October’s Joker, this has been a relatively quiet year (with exception to Jordan Peele’s Us) at the box office for the otherwise booming horror genre.

In short: not only are Stephen King fans eager for the epic conclusion, horror fans are hungry for the genre’s next big event. Chapter Two will undoubtedly be… it.
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