Future Tracking From Exhibitors

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Screen203
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Screen203 »

I know about YouTube comments. I thought that this would be spared somewhat because of how popular superheroes are with the conservative crowds.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

Conservatives didn't really accept Black Panther. Their idea of a superhero is someone like Venom.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Screen203 »

You'll often see The Punisher or Captain America on those people's profiles.


And speaking about YouTube, why is there so much promotion for that Wayne show? There was an advertisement for it at the movies today.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

Wayne is a YouTube Premium series from the writers of Deadpool. They've been pushing content comparable to Netflix and Amazon pretty heavily lately ever since Cobra Kai was a hit (though mysteriously, they dumped Dallas and Robo despite the excellent cast that series had and the few reviews it got mentioned it was decent).

The Alamo Drafthouse here's screening the first two episodes next week as their monthly free Victory movie (last month was the first two episodes of the new True Detective season).

And yes, I've known about Captain America's conservative pull. The Punisher would seem like the hero for edgelords and Twitter users. I mentioned Venom because the crowd for that movie tended to lean conservative.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Screen203 »

Speaking about the pre-show, I noticed the AMC intro had different movies on the A-List promo last night. They showed the older one today, though.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


1/25 The Kid Who Would Be King 10/40
1/25 Serenity 5.5/15.6

2/1 Miss Bala 9/14

2/8 The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part 59/200
2/8 What Men Want 25/63
2/8 Cold Pursuit 13/40
2/8 The Prodigy 5.5/12

2/13 Isn't It Romantic 14/54
2/14 Happy Death Day 2U 20/52
2/14 Alita: Battle Angel 14.5/44
2/14 Fighting With My Family n/a

2/22 How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World 44/155
2/22 Rhythm Section n/a
2/22 The Turning n/a

3/1 TP's A Madea Family Funeral 27/68
3/1 Chaos Walking n/a
3/1 Greta n/a

3/8 Captain Marvel 160/465

3/15 Wonder Park 8/30




Wonder Park — slated to open March 15.

At this time, tracking metrics are comparable to the studio’s Sherlock Gnomes, which opened to $10.6 million last March. Wonder Park‘s debut between late February’s How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World and late March’s Dumbo could soften demand in the family market, although appeal to children too young for the Marvel blockbuster should be a source of strength. We expect a fair amount of staying power after opening weekend, provided its theater count holds up.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

2/1 Miss Bala 7.5/21

2/8 The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part 55/186.4
2/8 What Men Want 25/63
2/8 Cold Pursuit 12/37.5
2/8 The Prodigy 5.5/12

2/13 Happy Death Day 2U 20/52
2/13 Isn't It Romantic 15/57
2/14 Alita: Battle Angel 14.5/44
2/14 Fighting With My Family n/a

2/22 How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World 44/155

3/1 TP's A Madea Family Funeral 27/68
3/1 Chaos Walking n/a
3/1 Greta n/a

3/8 Captain Marvel 160/440

3/15 Wonder Park 8/30
3/15 Five Feet Apart 11/37

3/22 Us 42/135




Us
Opening Weekend Range: $35M – $55M

PROS:

Jordan Peele shot to immediate star filmmaker status with the wildly successful Get Out two years ago, which bowed to $33.4 million and legged out to $176 million domestically — earning praise from audiences, critics, and award guilds alike.

The first trailer has been strongly received since debuting at Christmas, earning more than 13 million views on the first day from Peele’s Twitter announcement post.

The studio’s decision to delay the film’s release until after a premiere at SXSW in March could serve to drum buzz up even higher. Incidentally, it also now has two weeks of breathing room after Captain Marvel‘s release.

Horror/thriller films have remained stalwart box office draws in recent years, and this is undoubtedly the first “event” original film from the genre in 2019. Fans will be hungry for something fresh and exciting.

Our most recent Trailer Impact survey indicates 73 percent of surveyed audiences are interested in the film, a strong representation for a horror title two months out from release.

Still riding the momentum of Get Out and its cultural impact, Peele’s profile should help Us to effectively behave like a spiritual sequel to that film during opening weekend — especially given the studio’s strong early marketing push.


CONS:

Until reviews and screening reactions are available, it’s challenging to assess whether or not Us will have the kind of staying power Get Out and films like A Quiet Place enjoyed — largely due to the widespread interest in what Peele has in store for his second directorial effort and how the film will play among the masses.

Pet Sematary will open during this film’s third weekend, which could siphon away some horror fans if that Stephen King remake builds significant buzz.
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Buscemi2
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

I'm thinking Us will be Jordan Peele's Unbreakable. Massive buzz but it ends up performing below expectations (I'm also convinced the trailer is selling a different film based on some hints the newer trailer gives).
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

2/8 The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part 55/186.4
2/8 What Men Want 24/63
2/8 Cold Pursuit 12/37.5
2/8 The Prodigy 5.75/13

2/13 Happy Death Day 2U 20/52
2/13 Isn't It Romantic 15/57
2/14 Alita: Battle Angel 16/45
2/14 Fighting With My Family 8/25

2/22 How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World 49/173

3/1 TP's A Madea Family Funeral 27/68

3/8 Captain Marvel 160/440

3/15 Wonder Park 8/30
3/15 Five Feet Apart 11/37
3/15 No Manches Frida 2 n/a

3/22 Us 42/135

3/29 Dumbo 59/175





Dumbo
Opening Weekend Range: $45 – 65 million


PROS:

Tim Burton returns in the director’s chair for another adaptation of a popular children’s title following his successful efforts with Alice in Wonderland ($334.2 million domestic), Charlie and the Chocolate Factory ($206.5 million), and Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children ($87.2 million). His fan base (in tandem with fans of his collaborative composer Danny Elfman) should help boost opening weekend intrigue.

Combined with a sense of nostalgia for the original animated film, an ensemble cast led by Colin Farrell, Danny DeVito, Michael Keaton, and Eva Green will aid appeal among parents.

Disney’s box office streak with their more well-known classic properties is hard to argue with. Opening three weeks after Captain Marvel and a full month before Avengers: Endgame gives Dumbo plenty of breathing room to find a family audience in April.

Early tracking shows interest scores in line with those of Mary Poppins Returns at the same point before release. Our Trailer Impact survey indicates 72 percent of responders are interested or definitely interested in Dumbo, compared 70 percent for Poppins two months out.


CONS:

Despite the studio’s average rate of success, Disney hasn’t been completely invincible at the box office when it comes to live action adaptations. Last year’s A Wrinkle In Time ($100.5 million) and 2016’s Alice Through the Looking Glass ($77 million) were viewed as under-performers relative to their budgets.

With DC’s Shazam! opening one week later, there could be minor crossover for young audiences depending on reception for both films.

As the third franchise film aiming for families and young ones since the start of February (LEGO Movie 2 and Dragon 3 being included), there could be less of a rush-out factor for those moviegoers.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

2/13 Happy Death Day 2U 20/52
2/13 Isn't It Romantic 15/57
2/14 Alita: Battle Angel 17/48
2/14 Fighting With My Family 8/25

2/22 How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World 49/173

3/1 TP's A Madea Family Funeral 27/68
3/1 Greta n/a

3/8 Captain Marvel 160/440

3/15 Wonder Park 8/30
3/15 Five Feet Apart 11/37
3/15 No Manches Frida 2 n/a

3/22 Us 42/135

3/29 Dumbo 59/175

4/5 Shazam! 45/144
4/5 Pet Sematary 28/65
4/5 The Best of Enemies 10/30





Shazam!
Opening Weekend Range: $40 – 60 million

PROS:

The promise of a coming-of-age entry in the DC film universe could provide a welcome change of pace for fans and general audiences alike, especially with initial comparisons to the modern classic Big. Appeal to teens could be particularly notable, which could drive significant upside to current forecasts.

Early social media buzz and trailer reactions have been very encouraging. The film earned a 77 percent interest score on Trailer Impact, not far behind the 83 percent of Aquaman nearly two months from its release.

This film’s strong comedic approach could represent another fresh aspect to attract moviegoers looking for a pure dose of popcorn fun from the genre leading up to a “darker” Avengers: Endgame later in the month.


CONS:

By and large, the character isn’t widely known outside of DC fans. That may not be a problem in the long run if reviews are strong, but it could translate to longer legs as opposed to the big debut typical of many superhero films.

Releasing one week after Dumbo, there may be competition for some of the family audience that often drives superhero titles. The aforementioned Avengers sequel opening three weeks later will represent a looming threat for that audience as well.


Pet Sematary
Opening Weekend Range: $20 – 30 million

PROS:

As noted many times in recent years, the horror genre has never been more lucrative than it is with today’s audiences.

The added fan base of Stephen King and fans of the original 1989 film and its sequel introduce an element of nostalgia that might benefit this remake’s opening.


CONS:

Releasing two weeks after Us could prove challenging if Jordan Peele’s next film earns strong audience approval.


The Best of Enemies
Opening Weekend Range: $7 – 12 million

PROS:

Taraji P. Henson and Sam Rockwell are widely respected actors whose fans may be intrigued by the chemistry the pair have on screen.

The spring slate is largely devoid of adult-leaning dramas from major studios, leaving an open space for this to catch on if reception hits the mark.


CONS:

Similar dramas like Marshall and Black or White weren’t able to catch on at the box office despite their important subject matter, leaving us on the cautious end of expectations for now.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by undeadmonkey »

I find it odd that Dumbo is tracking higher than Shazam, specially after the performance of Aquaman.

Now that Lego Movie flopped, How to Train your Dragon has a chance to clean up

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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

Dumbo is a more established brand name (that and we haven't seen DC do an outright comedy yet). It surprises me that people are still sitting on this one. This is a much easier sell than Mary Poppins Returns.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

2/13 Happy Death Day 2U 20/52 (WAY HIGH)
2/13 Isn't It Romantic 15/57 (PRETTY CLOSE)
2/14 Alita: Battle Angel 17/48 (PRETTY CLOE)


Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

2/22 How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World 48/170
2/22 Fighting With My Family 7/23

3/1 TP's A Madea Family Funeral 23/58
3/1 Greta n/a

3/8 Captain Marvel 160/440

3/15 Wonder Park 8/30
3/15 Five Feet Apart 11/37
3/15 No Manches Frida 2 n/a

3/22 Us 42/135

3/29 Dumbo 57/170

4/5 Shazam! 48/144
4/5 Pet Sematary 28/65
4/5 The Best of Enemies 10/30

4/12 Hellboy 22/46
4/12 Little 15/43
4/12 Missing Link 10/49
4/12 After n/a





Captain Marvel appeared on traditional tracking for the first time this week — and early indicators are as strong as previously expected. The film’s Awareness, Interest, and First Choice levels are registering higher than comparable films Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story at the same point before release. The upcoming MCU prequel is also trending ahead of other recent Marvel titles, suggesting more bullish prediction models are in play for now.

On our Trailer Impact surveys, Captain registered an 89 percent Average Positive Interest earlier this week — 2 percent higher than the forthcoming Spider-Man: Far from Home and just 5 percent behind Avengers: Endgame.

Contingent upon reviews closer to release, we continue to forecast Captain Marvel on track for an opening weekend north of $140 million domestically when it opens on International Women’s Day, Friday, March 8.


Hellboy
Opening Weekend Range: $17 – 25 million

PROS:

Guillermo del Toro’s 2004 and 2008 adaptations are well regarded among fans, having earned $59.6 million and $76 million, respectively, at the domestic box office. Comic book films have only gained in popularity since then, which could boost the profile of this reboot.

The casting of David Harbour (Stranger Things) has been generally well-received despite his having to take over the popular turn of Ron Perlman in the title role.

CONS:

With a complete change in cast and crew — plus the notable absence of del Toro’s involvement — fans are cautious in hopes for a film that stands up to the previous entries.

Opening one week after Shazam! (which is a notable breakout candidate) and two weeks before Avengers: Endgame will likely bottleneck this film’s potential.


Little
Opening Weekend Range: $12 – 18 million

PROS:

There aren’t many comedies on the docket this spring, creating a window for a solid counter-programmer against the higher profile titles in release.
Producer Will Packer has delivered a consistent string of successes appealing strongly to the African-American community, with his most recent hits including What Men Want, Night School, Breaking In, and Girls Trip.

CONS:

The “wish fulfillment” concept played in recent female-driven comedies like Isn’t It Romantic, What Men Want, and I Feel Pretty could create some fatigue when it comes to moviegoer interest in that sub-genre.


Missing Link
Opening Weekend Range: $7 – 15 million

PROS:

Laika Studios have developed a strong track record with critically and commercially acclaimed films like Kubo and the Two Strings, The Boxtrolls, ParaNorman, Coraline, and Corpse Bride.

Opening in Dumbo‘s third weekend could distance it just enough for parents with young kids to be a viable target audience in mid-April.

CONS:

The box office under-performance of similar stop-motion films like Early Man and Shaun the Sheep leave us cautious in projections despite Laika’s exception-to-the-rule type of success. The young distribution history of Annapurna’s wide releases adds reasoning behind conservative forecasts.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

I think Missing Link will make way less. Between Annapurna releasing it and it being stop-motion (there hasn't been a truly successful stop-motion feature in some time), I think $35 million will be the ceiling.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

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Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


3/1 TP's A Madea Family Funeral 23/58
3/1 Greta n/a

3/8 Captain Marvel 160/450

3/15 Wonder Park 8/30
3/15 Five Feet Apart 11.5/37
3/15 No Manches Frida 2 n/a

3/22 Us 42/135

3/29 Dumbo 55/164

4/5 Shazam! 48/144
4/5 Pet Sematary 28/65
4/5 The Best of Enemies 10/30

4/12 Hellboy 22/46
4/12 Little 15/43
4/12 Missing Link 10/49
4/12 After n/a

4/17 Breakthrough 15/56
4/17 Penguins 4.5/17.5
4/19 The Curse of La Llorona 20/45




Breakthrough
Opening Weekend Range: $12 – 20 million (3-Day)

PROS:

Faith-based audiences that have driven recent successes in the genre — such as last year’s breakout I Can Only Imagine — are expected to turn out in healthy numbers.

Star Chrissy Metz brings with her some of the fan base of This Is Us, which has become one of the most successful television dramas in recent years. Similarly, producer DeVon Franklin has plenty of experience delivering hit films for Christian audiences throughout his involvement with Miracles from Heaven and Heaven Is for Real.

Opening on Wednesday ahead of Easter weekend should provide ample opportunity for the film to generate word of mouth among churchgoers leading into the holiday weekend.

CONS:

I Can Only Imagine being an exception last spring, the faith-based genre hasn’t been churning out box office hits on quite the same level as it was in the early-to-mid 2010s.


Penguins
Opening Weekend Range: $4 – 8 million (3-Day)

PROS:

Disneynature’s latest documentary timed for Earth Day (Monday, April 22) should appeal well to families and fans of the series.

In general, Disneynature titles have proven fairly consistent at the box office across their seven previous entries dating back to 2009.

CONS:

Although generally successful on their own terms, Disneynature titles haven’t exceeded the $20 million domestic mark since 2012’s Chimpanzee.


The Curse of La Llorona
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 25 million

PROS:

Supernatural horror is hotter than ever at the box office, and early trailer reactions indicate this could be another micro-budget success for the genre.

Advertised “from the producers of The Conjuring Universe” could boost interest.

Opening over Easter weekend is an intriguing play at attracting viewers beyond Friday night. Latinx moviegoers will be of particular importance to the film’s potential.

CONS:

If Pet Sematary breaks out two weeks earlier, it could soften demand for another horror entry.

Reviews will be key to opening and long-term success given its proximity to the summer corridor.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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