Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Discuss weekly box office numbers, PTA numbers, and date changes.

Moderators: Buscemi, BarcaRulz, Geezer, W

User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
Posts: 14273
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


10/26 Hunter Killer 7.5/20
10/26 Johnny English Strikes Again 3.2/7.1
10/26 Indivisible 2/6

11/2 Bohemian Rhapsody 35/125
11/2 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms 20/79
11/2 TP's Nobody's Fool 13.5/36
11/2 Suspiria (wide) n/a

11/9 Dr. Seuss' The Grinch 70/290
11/9 The Girl in the Spider's Web 14/40
11/9 Overlord 10.5/30

11/16 Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindlewald 75/222
11/16 Widows 20/78
11/16 Instant Family 18/?
11/16 A Private War (wide) n/a

11/21 Ralph Breaks the Internet 50/200
11/21 Creed 2 23/80
11/21 Robin Hood 9.5/26
11/21 Green Book n/a
11/21 The Front Runner (wide) n/a

11/30 The Possession of Hannah Grace n/a

12/7 The Silence n/a

12/14 Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse 22/90
12/14 Mortal Engines 16/55
12/14 The Mule 14/80
12/14 Second Act 9/40



Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Opening Weekend Range: $17 – 27 million

The brand name is likely to help this animated take serve as a strong option for young viewers in the market through the remainder of the holiday season, although it will probably still be contending with The Grinch and Ralph Breaks the Internet for general family audiences. Early social media buzz and Trailer Impact metrics are encouraging, with the latter earning a 79 percent Average Positive Interest score this week.

Mortal Engines
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 25 million

We’re conservative on this adaptation due in large part to modest social media activity following its trailer campaign thus far. Peter Jackson’s producing role has been featured heavily in marketing, which will be an asset toward attracting fans of The Lord of the Rings films, but the film needs to build strong word of mouth through Christmas and New Year’s to compete with action-driven releases like Aquaman and Bumblebee. Another possible advantage could be that it offers something relatively new in a month filled with more established franchise/universe titles.

The Mule
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 20 million

Tracking is very preliminary at this stage with the film and its trailer only having been announced in recent weeks. Still, we’re confident enough in the potential of star/director Clint Eastwood’s latest project to offer up initial forecasts thanks to encouraging trailer reactions. Bradley Cooper’s supporting role will be an added advantage, and an award season run could give the crime pic long life into early 2019.

Second Act
Opening Weekend Range: $8 – 13 million

Representing the only release of this weekend targeting a predominately female audience will help it serve as a fair counter-programmer. The release of Mary Poppins Returns five days later will likely cut into that target demographic, but there could still be room to attract adult women during the holiday corridor.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

User avatar
Buscemi2
Mad Max
Posts: 6662
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

I can't see The Mule doing that well. Yes, it's Eastwood's final film but it's basically a more mainstream version of The Old Man and the Gun and that really hasn't taken off in wide release. Also, Warner Bros. has really no plans to push it onto awards voters.

On the other hand, I think Spider-Man will do far better. Despite being unrelated to the MCU, I think the Marvel fan community will really push this film especially with it doing things the Spider-Man movies haven't done before (focus on one of the other Spider-Men, finally let Peter grow up). This might be Marvel's answer to Batman Beyond and I think it's going to do what the Teen Titans Go! movie couldn't do.

And despite the slight delay on Second Act, I'm still convinced it moves to January. That STX January 25th placeholder is still on the schedule.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

User avatar
numbersix
Darth Vader
Posts: 11545
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 2:34 pm

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by numbersix »

Disagree on The Mule. It looks more like Gran Torino than Old Man, which looks decidedly old fashioned and gentle in its approach, whereas The Mule seems to be more intense. Bradley Cooper's presence, plus Clint's fanbase loving a film dealing with the drug trade means it should be larger than expected. Mid 20s opening and high 80s cume looks good to me.

But agree on Spiderman. It should be a hit with the kids and the comic nerds. 100m seems right.

User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
Posts: 14273
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


11/2 Bohemian Rhapsody 39/117
11/2 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms 20/76
11/2 TP's Nobody's Fool 13.5/36
11/2 Suspiria (wide) n/a

11/9 Dr. Seuss' The Grinch 69/290
11/9 The Girl in the Spider's Web 13/38
11/9 Overlord 9/25

11/16 Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindlewald 75/222
11/16 Widows 16.5/65
11/16 Instant Family 18/?
11/16 A Private War (wide) n/a

11/21 Ralph Breaks the Internet 50/200
11/21 Creed 2 23/80
11/21 Robin Hood 9.5/26
11/21 Green Book n/a
11/21 The Front Runner (wide) n/a

11/30 The Possession of Hannah Grace n/a

12/7 The Silence n/a

12/14 Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse 22/90
12/14 Mortal Engines 16/55
12/14 The Mule 14/80

12/21 Mary Poppins Returns 40/350
12/21 Aquaman 45/175
12/21 Bumblebee 20/100
12/21 Second Act 7/40
12/21 Untitled Deadpool Movie n/a
12/21 Welcome to Marwen n/a





Note: due to the sometimes abnormal holding patterns of films around this time of year, tracking ranges and long-term forecasts are more volatile than with typical releases and could shift significantly in the weeks ahead.

Mary Poppins Returns
Opening 3-Day Weekend Range: $30 – 50 million

All signs point to another major holiday success from Disney with this long-awaited sequel’s appeal to multiple generations of fans. Star Emily Blunt (Into the Woods, A Quiet Place) has won early praise for her faithful take on the iconic Julie Andrews character, while co-star Lin-Manuel Miranda (Hamilton) provides another marquee name for a film that is bound to capitalize on the wave of successful musicals at the box office.

Trailer reactions are enthusiastic, and early social media trends are very encouraging. Industry buzz is additionally notable after the film won over a group of exhibitors recently, with rumors bubbling that the studio could make a push for top line categories like Best Picture in the nearing Oscar race. The main question remaining at this point is if younger audiences will gravitate toward the nostalgia-driven film, or if competing films in the market will divide that key demographic.

Either way, we currently expect big results with staying power that should extend well out from the film’s Wednesday, December 19 opening.


Aquaman
Opening Weekend Range: $40 – 60 million

The DC cinematic brand will be tested again with the universe’s first chapter since last year’s Justice League under-performed. A strong contingent of fans are excited for this character’s first big-screen solo adventure, while Jason Momoa, Amber Heard, and the ensemble cast should help translate to fair appeal among both men and women.

Social buzz thus far is comparable to Ant-Man and the Wasp, although a less front-loaded run is likely given the time of year. Reviews and word of mouth, as always, will be key for the comic book adaptation, but Aquaman is effectively looking to serve as the top option for moviegoers interested in an action-driven spectacle around the holiday break.


Bumblebee
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 25 million

Our immediate concern is that the Transformers franchise has lost a significant amount of goodwill among general audiences after the last two films displayed sharp declines at the domestic box office. That will be the initial disadvantage for this 1980s-set prequel (along with the opening weekend competition), but early trailers have started to win over fans hoping for a fresh take on the brand thanks to a new and accomplished filmmaker (Kubo and the Two Strings‘ Travis Knight) at the helm with a character-driven tone advertised thus far.

While Bumblebee is likely to finish third among the December 21 weekend’s new releases, family appeal and word of mouth could go a long way toward giving it healthy legs into early 2019.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
Posts: 14273
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


11/9 Dr. Seuss' The Grinch 69/290
11/9 The Girl in the Spider's Web 12/35
11/9 Overlord 8/22

11/16 Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindlewald 73/216
11/16 Widows 16.5/65
11/16 Instant Family 18/100

11/21 Ralph Breaks the Internet 50/200
11/21 Creed 2 30/100
11/21 Robin Hood 10/30
11/21 Green Book n/a
11/21 The Front Runner (wide) n/a

11/30 The Possession of Hannah Grace n/a

12/7 The Silence n/a

12/14 Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse 22/90
12/14 Mortal Engines 16/55
12/14 The Mule 14/80

12/21 Mary Poppins Returns 40/350
12/21 Aquaman 45/175
12/21 Bumblebee 20/100
12/21 Second Act 7/40
12/21 Untitled Deadpool Movie n/a
12/21 Welcome to Marwen n/a

12/25 Holmes & Watson 17/85
12/25 Vice ?/65





Holmes & Watson
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 25 million

The reuniting of Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly (Talladega Nights, Step Brothers) should bring back a lot of their fans. As one of the few comedies in the market around this time of year, there should be enough room for this send-up of the classic property to succeed on some level. Our primary concern at this stage is the film’s lukewarm social media growth and the fact that family appeal probably won’t be as widespread as it was for Ferrell’s Daddy’s Home franchise.

Vice
Opening Weekend Range: n/a

We’re currently holding off on opening weekend tracking given the film’s planned staggered release from distributor Annapurna. That being said, the film and its first trailer have already sparked Oscar buzz thanks to an all-star ensemble led by Christian Bale, Amy Adams, Steve Carell, and Sam Rockwell. As director Adam McKay’s follow-up to The Big Short, there’s reason to believe this could attract a similar audience as that 2015 award contender — although the more direct political aspects here might limit the interest of casual moviegoers compared to Short. Reviews and word of mouth will be key factors as forecasts evolve in the weeks ahead.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

User avatar
Buscemi2
Mad Max
Posts: 6662
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

Vice looks like a bomb to me. The similarly-themed W. was a box office disappointment and this looks to be a more stylish version of that film (at least McKay didn't base this one on the third act of another one of his movies). Also, will Annapurna have the money to push the film? The current situation there suggests no money will be spent on current and future projects (meanwhile, I'm convinced Destroyer will get delayed and sold off to Neon).
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
Posts: 14273
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


11/21 Ralph Breaks the Internet 52/210
11/21 Creed 2 34/113
11/21 Robin Hood 9/28
11/21 Green Book n/a

11/30 The Possession of Hannah Grace 2.5/5

12/12 Once Upon a Deadpool n/q
12/14 Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse 22/90
12/14 Mortal Engines 16/55
12/14 The Mule 14/80

12/19 Mary Poppins Returns 40/350
12/21 Aquaman 55/200
12/21 Bumblebee 20/100
12/21 Second Act 7/40
12/21 Welcome to Marwen n/a

12/25 Holmes & Watson 17/85
12/25 Vice ?/65

1/4 Escape Room 13/32
1/4 Eli n/a

1/11 A Dog's Way Home 12/40
1/11 The Upside 13/39
1/11 Perfect Strangers n/a
1/11 Replicas n/a




A Dog’s Way Home
Opening Weekend Range: $9 – 14 million

Co-adapted by A Dog’s Purpose author W. Bruce Cameron, we expect some fans of that film to turn out for this family-driven pic. Early tracking is modest, which is to be expected for a fairly low-profile title whose marketing campaign won’t fully kick in until the crowded holiday corridor has passed.


The Upside
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 15 million

Bryan Cranston and Kevin Hart should prove an attractive duo for their fans in this remake of 2011’s international hit, The Intouchables. Again, post-holiday tracking is lukewarm at the moment, but our primary concern will be the ability of the film to catch on during the heart of award season as many candidates will be targeting a similar adult audience.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
Posts: 14273
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


12/12 Once Upon a Deadpool n/q
12/14 Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse 30/135
12/14 The Mule 16/80
12/14 Mortal Engines 13/46

12/19 Mary Poppins Returns 38/320
12/21 Aquaman 58/212
12/21 Bumblebee 20/100
12/21 Second Act 7/40
12/21 Welcome to Marwen 4.5/22

12/25 Holmes & Watson 17/85
12/25 Vice ?/65

1/4 Escape Room 13/32
1/4 Eli n/a

1/11 A Dog's Way Home 12/40
1/11 The Upside 13/39
1/11 Perfect Strangers n/a
1/11 Replicas n/a

1/18 Glass 67/180
1/18 Arctic Dogs 5.5/17

1/25 The Kid Who Would Be King 15/50
1/25 Serenity 10/30
1/25 Untitled STX Action Thriller n/a




Glass
Opening Weekend Range: $55 – 80 million

PROS:

Split was a runaway hit two years ago when it exceeded expectations with a $40 million debut and leggy $138.3 million domestic total on the heels of strong word of mouth and critical reception. The film’s surprise twist connecting it to a previous Shyamalan hit left fans excited for the prospect of the long-discussed follow-up to Unbreakable after nearly two decades of waiting.

The return of Bruce Willis and Samuel L. Jackson as their Unbreakable characters, alongside James McAvoy and the tremendous praise he received for his Split performance, gives the sequel serious marquee appeal.

Superheroes are hotter than ever at the box office right now, and the promise of a unique, grounded action/thriller through the lens of Shyamalan could be very appealing to audiences looking for a fresh hook from the genre.

With plenty of distance between Christmas releases and February’s high profile titles, this is arguably the first and only tentpole release of January 2019.

Early Trailer Impact metrics are very encouraging with nearly 78 percent of surveyed audiences indicating interest in seeing the film. That’s comparable to the 82 percent earned by Halloween when it was first tracked six weeks out from release.


CONS:

Those unfamiliar with Unbreakable may not be as excited by the connection between that film and Glass, although part of the impressive success of Split was its ability to capture a young adult audience on its own merits without the recognition of the first film in the trilogy.




The Kid Who Would be King and Serenity

PROS:

The Kid Who Would Be King could benefit from its positioning as one of the first youth-friendly films of the year, getting a two-week jump on February 8’s The LEGO Movie 2. Initial trailers and the film’s high production value under director Joe Cornish could aid appeal to parents.

Matthew McConaughey and Anne Hathaway may provide enough star power for Serenity to counter-program the family-leaning opener.


CONS:

Early Trailer Impact and social media trends are mixed for The Kid Who Would Be King, which is to be expected given the glut of family-driven holiday releases before it.

Distributor Aviron has a young history, so it remains to be seen how much marketing is employed closer to release. Serenity will also have to fend off a potentially strong second weekend from Glass and, likely, a number of Oscar candidates in varying stages of expansion.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

User avatar
Buscemi2
Mad Max
Posts: 6662
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

I haven't seen really anything for The Kid Who Would Be King outside of a poster. Also, Joe Cornish's other film didn't do much of anything domestically after a lot of buzz out of Sundance.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
Posts: 14273
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

I've seen the trailer in front of several movies already. Looks cute.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
Posts: 14273
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


12/12 Once Upon a Deadpool n/q
12/14 Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse 31.5/140
12/14 The Mule 17/85
12/14 Mortal Engines 12/42.5

12/19 Mary Poppins Returns 38/320
12/21 Aquaman 61/223
12/21 Bumblebee 21/100
12/21 Second Act 6.5/39
12/21 Welcome to Marwen 4.5/22

12/25 Holmes & Watson 13/69
12/25 Vice ?/65

1/4 Escape Room 13/32
1/4 Eli n/a

1/11 A Dog's Way Home 12/40
1/11 The Upside 13/39
1/11 Perfect Strangers n/a
1/11 Replicas n/a

1/18 Glass 67/180
1/18 Arctic Dogs 5.5/17

1/25 The Kid Who Would Be King 15/50
1/25 Serenity 10/30
1/25 Untitled STX Action Thriller n/a

2/1 Miss Bala 10/28
2/1 Jacob's Ladder n/a
2/1 The Informer n/a



Miss Bala
Opening Weekend Range: $8 – 15 million

PROS:

Demand for more female-driven action films could result in notable interest for this film, especially among Latino communities thanks to star Gina Rodriguez. Counter-programming the male-dominated Super Bowl on opening Sunday could be another advantage.
CONS:

Early trailer trends and social media impact are lukewarm at this point in time with metrics drawing comparisons to films like Peppermint and Proud Mary.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

User avatar
Buscemi2
Mad Max
Posts: 6662
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

I haven't seen anything for Miss Bala. And the PG-13 rating (the original was R) won't help matters.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

User avatar
Screen203
Clark Griswald
Posts: 1170
Joined: December 1st, 2018, 3:38 pm
Location: Mullholland Dr.

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Screen203 »

Buscemi2 wrote:I haven't seen anything for Miss Bala. And the PG-13 rating (the original was R) won't help matters.
The only marketing that I've seen for it is the preview in theaters. I'm not sure if there is even a poster. I think it looks interesting (haven't seen the original), but I think that Sony is dumping it.

Sony seems confident in Escape Room, however. The film is probably terrible (I say this despite it being on my top ten most anticipated films of next year), but the previews and ads are slickly-cut and horror movies always seem to do well on the first weekend of the year.
It's not destroying. It's making something new.

Image courtesy of -
https://nerdist.com/annihilation-shimmer-ending-explained/

User avatar
Buscemi2
Mad Max
Posts: 6662
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

I'm not sure what Sony sees in Escape Room. It reminds me of the many horror dumps (Keep Watching, He's Out There, Patient Zero) they've had in recent years.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
Posts: 14273
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


12/19 Mary Poppins Returns 36/320
12/21 Aquaman 69/240
12/21 Bumblebee 21/100
12/21 Second Act 6/39
12/21 Welcome to Marwen 4/25

12/25 Holmes & Watson 12/65
12/25 Vice ?/65

1/4 Escape Room 13/32
1/4 Eli n/a

1/11 A Dog's Way Home 12/40
1/11 The Upside 13/39
1/11 Perfect Strangers n/a
1/11 Replicas n/a

1/18 Glass 67/180
1/18 Arctic Dogs 5.5/17

1/25 The Kid Who Would Be King 15/50
1/25 Serenity 10/30
1/25 Untitled STX Action Thriller n/a

2/1 Miss Bala 10/28
2/1 Jacob's Ladder n/a
2/1 The Informer n/a

2/8 The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part 60/213
2/8 What Men Want 25/63
2/8 Cold Pursuit 13/40
2/8 The Prodigy




The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part
Opening Weekend Range: $50 – 65 million

PROS:

The first film was a major hit across a variety of audiences and ages, translating to a fair amount of goodwill that should carry into this sequel with returning and new characters five years later.
This will mark 2019’s first animated tentpole, and the first major animated title to open since before Christmas. Family demand should be considerable.
Early tracking and social media trends are very encouraging, with 73 percent of surveyed audiences interested in seeing the sequel.

CONS:

The LEGO cinematic brand experienced some dilution with 2017’s Ninjago Movie as it performed well below the standards of LEGO Movie and LEGO Batman. As the fourth film in the “franchise”, some of the novelty may have worn off for older fans.


What Men Want
Opening Weekend Range: $20 – 30 million

PROS:

Taraji P. Henson’s fan turnout could be a significant driver here, as will the comedy’s point-of-view reversal from the hit 2000 film, What Women Want.
Leading into Valentine’s Day the following week could be excellent timing for what will likely be a female-driven film with plenty of “girls’ night out” potential.

CONS:

Reactions to the first trailers have left something to be desired with just 60 percent of surveyed audiences expressing interest. Then again, that’s to be expected for this genre — even among more successful releases.


Cold Pursuit
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 15 million

PROS:

Liam Neeson has developed a new wheelhouse in the thriller genre, and this film should squarely appeal to fans of the actor’s recent projects.
Coming off of Super Bowl weekend, a male-driven film like this is positioned to capture interest. Direct competition in the weeks ahead will be minor.

CONS:

Early tracking and social trends are modest at this time, coming in behind those of Widows.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

Post Reply