Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Discuss weekly box office numbers, PTA numbers, and date changes.

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Shrykespeare
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

I've seen one trailer and a couple TV ads for Dog Days. Nothing at all for Slender Man.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


8/8 Dog Days 4/13
8/10 The Meg 23.5/60
8/10 Slender Man 15.5/40

8/15 Crazy Rich Asians 13/42
8/17 Mile 22 17/52
8/17 Alpha 8/22.6

8/24 The Happytime Murders 15.5/40.5
8/24 A.X.L. 1.75/4.4
8/24 Searching

8/29 Operation Finale n/a
8/31 Kin n/a
8/31 Ya Veremos n/a

9/7 The Nun 40/96
9/7 Peppermint 12/33.5
9/7 City of Lies 7/16
9/7 God Bless the Broken Road n/a

9/14 The Predator 28/65
9/14 A Simple Favor 14/40
9/14 White Boy Rick 7.5/24
9/14 Unbroken: Path to Redemption 2/4.9

9/21 The House with a Clock in its Walls 24/79
9/21 Life Itself n/a
9/21 Fahrenheit 11/9 n/a

9/28 Smallfoot 23/80
9/28 Night School 17.5/55
9/28 Hell Fest 9.5/22




Hell Fest
Opening Weekend Range: $6 – 12 million

As is the case with most original horror films, it’s too early to gauge the full potential of this title — particularly with the slew of genre titles set for release this fall. The film’s first trailer sparked respectable Twitter activity upon its release, but stiff genre competition in October will be something to watch for.


Night School
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 20 million

Kevin Hart and rising star Tiffany Haddish should be driving forces in this comedy from producer Will Packer, whose resume includes a long list of hits in recent years — including last year’s Girls Trip and fellow Hart films like the Ride Along series, The Wedding Ringer, and the Think Like a Man series.


Smallfoot
Opening Weekend Range: $20 – 25 million

Early social media growth is encouraging for what will be the first all-animated release in two-and-a-half months. An ensemble voice cast led by Channing Tatum and Zendaya will further enhance appeal to families with young kids. Competition from The House With A Clock In Its Walls and October’s Goosebumps: Haunted Halloween will be important factors, but the film otherwise has no direct run-in with animated films until November’s The Grinch.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

I think Night School's going to do much better than that. It's been marketed very well and $15-20 million would a disappointment considering the leads and the director being hot off of Girls Trip (a film that opened to $31 million with a hard R rating).
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


8/15 Crazy Rich Asians 14.5/47
8/17 Mile 22 18/55
8/17 Alpha 7/20

8/24 The Happytime Murders 15.5/40.5
8/24 A.X.L. 1.75/4.4
8/24 Searching

8/29 Operation Finale 6/19
8/31 Kin 5.5/13.8
8/31 Ya Veremos n/a

9/7 The Nun 40/96
9/7 Peppermint 12/33.5
9/7 City of Lies 7/16
9/7 God Bless the Broken Road n/a

9/14 The Predator 28/65
9/14 A Simple Favor 14/40
9/14 White Boy Rick 7.5/24
9/14 Unbroken: Path to Redemption 2/4.9

9/21 The House with a Clock in its Walls 24/79
9/21 Life Itself n/a
9/21 Fahrenheit 11/9 n/a

9/28 Smallfoot 23/80
9/28 Night School 17.5/55
9/28 Hell Fest 9.5/22

10/5 Venom 40/85
10/5 A Star is Born 30/117




A Star Is Born
Opening Weekend Range: $25 – 35 million

Social media buzz is steadily growing for this remake thanks to strong trailer reception over the summer. The mega-star power of director/actor Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga could prove to be irresistible for audiences even beyond their fans. If award season contention follows, long box office legs wouldn’t be hard to develop — especially considering the renaissance of successful musicals in recent years. The breakout potential of this one is hard to ignore right now, putting current forecasts in bullish territory.


Venom
Opening Weekend Range: $30 – 50 million

Since this film has no connection to the current Spider-Man in Disney’s sprawling Marvel Cinematic Universe, its biggest asset will be its star — Tom Hardy — who is compiling an impressive list of opening weekend performances (his last three starring or co-starring wide releases each opened north of $39 million domestically). Venom, of course, is one of the most popular anti-heroes in comic book history, so long-time fans of the character will provide additional opening weekend ammo.

While Venom‘s social media conversation is on fire currently, the ratio of positive-to-negative comments is much lower than we’d like to see as many fans are concerned with news that the film underwent extensive re-shoots and will be rated PG-13 — eschewing the more mature and graphic elements of the character in favor of a teen-friendly rating. In an era where Deadpool and Logan have proven the validity of comic book characters being allowed to stay true to their R-rated roots, that provides some trepidation among fans — and, by extension, long-term playability — until we get an idea of what actual word of mouth will be like.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

9/7 The Nun 39/93
9/7 Peppermint 13/34
9/7 God Bless the Broken Road 2.5/6.3

9/14 The Predator 30/66
9/14 A Simple Favor 13.5/38.6
9/14 White Boy Rick 10/32
9/14 Unbroken: Path to Redemption 2/4.9

9/21 The House with a Clock in its Walls 24/79
9/21 Life Itself n/a
9/21 Fahrenheit 11/9 n/a

9/28 Smallfoot 23/80
9/28 Night School 17.5/55
9/28 Hell Fest 9.5/22
9/28 Little Women

10/5 Venom 65/135
10/5 A Star is Born 44/150

10/12 First Man 20/90
10/12 Goosebumps: Haunted Halloween 14/45
10/12 Bad Times at the El Royale 13/40

10/19 Halloween 60/140 (WT actual F???)
10/19 The Hate U Give n/a
10/19 Serenity n/a

10/26 Hunter Killer 14/41
10/26 Johnny English Strikes Again 4/8/75
10/26 Indivisible n/a




A Star Is Born
Opening Weekend Range: $35 – 55 million (up from $25 – 35 million)

Following up on our initial analysis of the star-driven remake, the film continues to gain momentum as release approaches. Warner Bros. was confident enough to drop the review embargo today — over a full month ahead of opening day — and critics are praising the film, confirming earlier expectations that it could be a strong award season player.

From the numbers side, forecast models are even more bullish than before thanks to strong social media activity and interest metrics from our Trailer Impact surveys. On both fronts, A Star Is Born had been pacing closely to — and ahead of, in some scenarios — the trends of Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again at the same point before its release. That was before the review embargo dropped today, which should only serve to boost interest and awareness going forward.

For now, we’re expecting fans of the original films and the Gaga/Cooper pairing to drive some relative front-loading (compared to leggier hits like Greatest Showman and La La Land), but we’ll continue to look at the film closely in the coming weeks as it and Venom are aiming to combine for a stellar first weekend at the October box office.


Hunter Killer
Opening Weekend Range: $12 – 17 million

Lionsgate’s Hunter Killer will hope to follow in the footsteps of numerous male-driven action/thrillers that have performed well so far in 2018 when it opens in late October. The film’s ensemble led by Gerard Butler, Gary Oldman, Linda Cardellini, and Common will be definite advantages toward that goal, as well as the fact that not many films aimed at older male audiences will be opening around this portion of the calendar. Early comps include the likes of Mile 22, Den of Thieves, Geostorm, and American Assassin.


Johnny English Strikes Again
Opening Weekend Range: $3 – 5 million

This franchise is built for overseas play, underlined by the fact that 2011’s Johnny English Reborn earned 95 percent of its $160.1 million global revenue from outside North American borders. We’re expecting similar results to that sequel’s $3.8 million opening / $8.3 million total on the domestic side, which would be a healthy result driven by the franchise’s loyal fans looking forward to a new chapter in the series.



Halloween (2018)
Opening Weekend Range: $50 – 85 million

Longtime fans of the venerable horror franchise are ecstatic about John Carpenter’s return to the series in a significant producing role, as well as the involvement of modern horror master Jason Blum. The return of star Jamie Lee Curtis and strong intrigue around the screenplay from Danny McBride and director David Gordon Green have only added to the general hope that this will not only revive the franchise in a significant way, but also benefit from the wave of smart horror films that have continued to exceed even optimistic expectations at the box office.

As is typical with common-word titles, Twitter metrics will be volatile for the time being — but it is worth noting that the film is outpacing the likes of A Quiet Place and Split thus far, with very positive sentiment scores driven by strong reactions to the first trailer.

The cautionary tale here is that recent 80s-era franchise revivals like Blade Runner 2049 and Alien: Covenant haven’t caught on with younger audiences, a factor worth keeping in mind since this film is a continuation of the original 1978 film that ignores the events of its numerous sequels. The flip-side of that coin is obviously the runaway blockbuster success of last year’s It — which proved to be one of the most decidedly four-quadrant horror films of all-time — but it didn’t require any pre-existing knowledge of the franchise from newcomers.

The titular holiday’s landing in the middle of this film’s second week of release adds another dose of commercial synergy, which could further enhance prospects of appealing beyond the older fan base and capturing the nostalgia zeitgeist.

Reviews will be key to watch for, but with minimal direct competition, intense fan interest, and a strong early ad campaign, Halloween is well-positioned to deliver one of the best debuts ever for a slasher flick — needing only to top the 2009 reboot of Friday the 13th ($40.6 million) for the all-time record in that sub-genre. Adjusted for inflation, the slasher benchmark belongs to Scream 2 ($32.9 million non-adjusted / $66+ million in 2018 prices).

Halloween also has an excellent chance to post the second highest R-rated horror opening of all-time behind It ($123.4 million), needing to surpass Paranormal Activity 3 ($52.6 million) for that feat.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

I think the more ridiculous number is Venom opening to $65 million. I have a feeling this is going to be another Fantastic Four. And Jenny Slate needs to fire her agent if this is the best she can get.

And Bad Times at the El Royale I can't see hitting $13 million total. I can't help but see A Cure for Wellness and Hotel Artemis (another Jenny Slate film) with this one. The combined box office for those two: $14.8 million domestic.

Meanwhile, I saw that Fahrenheit 11/9 was tracking in the $5-10 million range for opening weekend. Though recent news events have likely brought interest, I still don't think there's much of an audience for things that are in the news every day. You need some sort of positive outlook or something that's not hammered by mainstream media to make a political documentary do well. This is why RBG made money and An Inconvenient Sequel didn't.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

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]Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

9/14 The Predator 31/68
9/14 A Simple Favor 13.5/38.6
9/14 White Boy Rick 8.5/27
9/14 Unbroken: Path to Redemption 3/7.5

9/21 The House with a Clock in its Walls 24/79
9/21 Life Itself n/a
9/21 Fahrenheit 11/9 5/?

9/28 Smallfoot 22/76.5
9/28 Night School 22/69
9/28 Hell Fest 9.5/22
9/28 Little Women

10/5 Venom 65/135
10/5 A Star is Born 44/150

10/12 First Man 22/105
10/12 Goosebumps: Haunted Halloween 14/45
10/12 Bad Times at the El Royale 13/40

10/19 Halloween 60/140
10/19 The Hate U Give n/a
10/19 Serenity n/a

10/26 Hunter Killer 14/41
10/26 Johnny English Strikes Again 4/8/75
10/26 Indivisible n/a

11/2 Bohemian Rhapsody 35/125
11/2 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms 20/79
11/2 TP's Nobody's Fool 15/40
11/2 The List n/a
11/2 Suspiria (wide) n/a



Bohemian Rhapsody
Opening Weekend Range: $25 – 40 million

Buzz around Rami Malek’s (Mr. Robot) anticipated performance as Queen front-man Freddie Mercury is driving strong interest and online conversation thus far, indicating potential for the film to follow in the footsteps of Walk the Line and Ray as an award-contending music bio released in November. The film’s director change midway through production may cause some initial concern, and while we expect some front-loading by Queen’s multiple generations of fans, early reactions from industry screenings of the film’s first half-hour have been very encouraging.


Tyler Perry’s Nobody’s Fool
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 20 million

Rising star Tiffany Haddish (Girls Trip) could be a notable driving factor for this comedy, not to mention writer/director’s Tyler Perry’s own consistent audience. We’re somewhat conservative for now given the recent availability of the film’s first trailer, but early trends suggest it could be a fair counter-programmer.


The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 30 million

Forecasting models for Disney’s next live action adaptation are volatile for now, due in part to what will be a stronger slate of kid- and family-driven releases later in November and December. Nutcracker‘s early trailers have generated a fair amount of positive sentiment online, staying power could be solid with the holiday season ahead, and the film’s notable ensemble cast may help appeal to parents. Still, we’re cautious given the mixed performances of Disney’s non-tentpole features in recent years. Initial trend and performance comps include the likes of A Wrinkle In Time, The BFG, and Alice Through the Looking Glass.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

Nobody's Fool and The List are the same movie.

Meanwhile, I can't help but be reminded of that Elle Fanning Nutcracker movie whenever I see a trailer for The Nutcracker and the Four Realms, which bombed with critics and had its wide release canceled despite millions poured into its promotion. The fact that much of the film was reshot suggests that this one's not too good either.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


9/21 The House with a Clock in its Walls 22/72
9/21 Life Itself n/a
9/21 Fahrenheit 11/9 5/?
9/21 Assassination nation n/a

9/28 Smallfoot 22/76.5
9/28 Night School 25/78
9/28 Hell Fest 8/18,5
9/28 Little Women n/a

10/5 Venom 65/135
10/5 A Star is Born 44/150

10/12 First Man 22/105
10/12 Goosebumps: Haunted Halloween 14/45
10/12 Bad Times at the El Royale 13/40

10/19 Halloween 60/140
10/19 The Hate U Give n/a
10/19 Serenity n/a

10/26 Hunter Killer 14/41
10/26 Johnny English Strikes Again 4/8/75
10/26 Indivisible n/a

11/2 Bohemian Rhapsody 35/125
11/2 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms 20/79
11/2 TP's Nobody's Fool 15/40
11/2 The List n/a
11/2 Suspiria (wide) n/a

11/9 Dr. Seuss' The Grinch 79/305
11/9 The Girl in the Spider's Web 15/45
11/9 Overlord 14/42






Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch
Opening Weekend Range: $70 – 100 million

Marking the first tentpole animation since midsummer (and the first animated option overall since September’s Smallfoot) is a strong advantage in itself, but the brand name is the big driver for this re-imagining of the classic story. Benedict Cumberbatch’s global popularity and increasingly hefty box office résumé lend credit to how much appeal his vocal presence behind the beloved title character could drive additional interest among parents/adults.

Some older viewers may not be eager for another take on the classic Christmas tale, but it’s been 18 years since the live action version starring Jim Carrey became an instant box office smash and a staple of holiday family movies since. That film’s $55.1 million / $260 million domestic opening / total translate to a $95 million / $446 million line based on 2018 ticket prices. While the 2000 film’s biggest novelty – other than Carrey himself — was representing the first live action, big-screen take on the character since the original 1966 TV animation, this updated effort could benefit from an entirely new generation of families that weren’t around for, or were too young to remember, the Carrey film in theaters.

A cautionary tale with these kinds of nostalgic comparisons, though, can be found in 2015’s The Peanuts Movie. Although it earned a respectable $44 million debut weekend, that animated revival ultimately didn’t capture the attention of today’s younger audiences on the level once expected before its release. Grinch‘s obvious and more direct holiday tie-in should translate to longer staying power (Peanuts topped out with a low-for-animation 2.95x multiplier at $130.2 million domestically by the end of its run).

Early forecasts are wide-ranging at this point due to mixed reactions from older demographics and social media search string limitations, but the volume of discussion itself is encouraging.

We expect Universal’s strong marketing arm to give the film a huge push as the holiday season approaches. Should strong word of mouth follow like it has for most of Illumination’s releases, this Grinch will enjoy a leggy run throughout November and December. Ultimately, though, reviews might be key to determining whether the film is a “mere” multi-hundred million dollar success or a bona fide holiday event.

Of note, the film needs only to surpass The Incredibles‘ $70.5 million debut as the all-time highest November animated opening. Adjusted for inflation, that Pixar title’s debut would be around $105 million today. If Grinch‘s final marketing phase in late October/early November fires on all cylinders, that type of figure is certainly within reach.


The Girl In the Spider’s Web
Opening Weekend Range: $11 – 21 million

Early models for this sequel to 2011’s The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo are relatively modest so far. Social media engagement and trailer reactions suggest this will experience notable diminished returns from that film’s $102 million domestic total, likely due to the seven-year gap between films and the fact that fan enthusiasm isn’t as high since this adaptation isn’t one of original author Stieg Larsson’s own. There’s also considerable competition in play during November, with Bohemian Rhapsody and Widows — among other candidates — competing for the target adult audience.


Overlord
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 20 million

Genre fans will probably be the driving force behind Bad Robot’s first R-rated film. While J.J. Abrams’ producing role could further entice some viewers, early social media trends are indicative of mid-range success following a packed month of October aiming for similar audiences.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by undeadmonkey »

Still wish they would have done a proper sequel to Gorl with the Dragon Tattoo... :lol:

They can't possibly think this pseudo sequel will be more successful

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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

"No Fincher, no sale" I feel will be the general response from audiences.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

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Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


9/28 Smallfoot 22/76.5
9/28 Night School 25/78
9/28 Hell Fest 6/14
9/28 Little Women n/a

10/5 Venom 65/135
10/5 A Star is Born 44/170

10/12 First Man 20/100
10/12 Goosebumps: Haunted Halloween 17/54
10/12 Bad Times at the El Royale 12/37

10/19 Halloween 60/140
10/19 The Hate U Give n/a
10/19 Serenity n/a

10/26 Hunter Killer 14/41
10/26 Johnny English Strikes Again 4/8/75
10/26 Indivisible n/a

11/2 Bohemian Rhapsody 35/125
11/2 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms 20/79
11/2 TP's Nobody's Fool 15/40
11/2 The List n/a
11/2 Suspiria (wide) n/a

11/9 Dr. Seuss' The Grinch 79/305
11/9 The Girl in the Spider's Web 15/45
11/9 Overlord 14/42

11/16 Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindlewald 75/222
11/16 Widows 20/78
11/16 Instant Family 18/?
11/16 A Private War (wide) n/a






Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
Opening Weekend Range: $70 – 80 million

Potterheads will undoubtedly unite again for this anticipated sequel to 2016’s first prequel/spin-off film, which earned a respectable $234 million domestically and $814 million globally. The returning and expanded cast — now including Jude Law as a young Dumbledore and Johnny Depp as the titular antagonist famous in Potter lore — could provide significant hooks to keep many casual fans interested.

This new series of films is probably best compared to The Hobbit trilogy, although we expect this entry to remain relatively flat with the 2016 chapter’s $74.4 million debut since Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them wasn’t met with the same level of familiarity and anticipation as the first Hobbit film.

Early social media trends are outpacing those of the first Beasts film, while our Trailer Impact‘s long view metrics are very encouraging with an 85 percent Positive Interest score among those surveyed — representing one of the best wide release PI scores since summer’s Ant-Man and the Wasp.


Instant Family
Opening Weekend Range: $14 – 24 million

The trailer has only begun to penetrate the market enough to gauge early interest levels, but Paramount’s recent announcement that the film is scoring highly in test screenings (comparing it to Wonder and The Blind Side) is a factor in current projections. Stars Mark Wahlberg (Daddy’s Home) and Rose Byrne (Neighbors), plus the film’s family-centric premise, could be strong draws over the holiday season.


Widows
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 25 million

Steve McQueen’s directorial follow-up to 13 Years a Slave promises a popcorn premise driven by a strong social message, a recipe which trailer reactions suggest could play very well.

The strong ensemble cast led by Viola Davis, Michelle Rodriguez, Elizabeth Debicki, Daniel Kaluuya, Colin Farrell, and Liam Neeson should entice adult audiences looking for more serious fare during the holiday corridor — an expectation backed up by excellent early reviews. If any award season buzz brews after release, staying power could have even more upside than we’re already expecting based on current trends.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


10/5 Venom 65/135
10/5 A Star is Born 44/170

10/12 First Man 20/100
10/12 Goosebumps: Haunted Halloween 17/54
10/12 Bad Times at the El Royale 11/34

10/19 Halloween 60/150
10/19 The Hate U Give n/a

10/26 Hunter Killer 14/41
10/26 Johnny English Strikes Again 4/8/75
10/26 Indivisible n/a

11/2 Bohemian Rhapsody 35/125
11/2 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms 20/79
11/2 TP's Nobody's Fool 15/40
11/2 Suspiria (wide) n/a

11/9 Dr. Seuss' The Grinch 79/305
11/9 The Girl in the Spider's Web 15/45
11/9 Overlord 14/42

11/16 Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindlewald 75/222
11/16 Widows 20/78
11/16 Instant Family 18/?
11/16 A Private War (wide) n/a

11/21 Ralph Breaks the Internet 50/200
11/21 Creed 2 23/80
11/21 Robin Hood 9.5/26
11/21 Green Book n/a
11/21 The Front Runner (wide) n/a




Fun fact: Disney currently owns the top nine three-day Thanksgiving openings of all time. If Ralph Breaks the Internet meets early tracking projections, it would surpass Warner Bros.’ Four Christmases ($31.1 million) to give Disney complete ownership of the holiday’s top ten opening weekends (not accounting for inflation).


Creed 2
Opening Weekend Range: $20 – 25 million

The film’s first teaser has generated solid buzz online since debuting nearly two months, while the most recent trailer released this week has stirred up positive conversation once again. While we’re expecting some diminished returns from 2015’s predecessor, the return of Michael B. Jordan and Sylvester Stallone in a natural sequel that again touches on the franchise’s nostalgic roots should play to this follow-up’s hopes of counter-programming against the holiday season’s tentpole films.


Ralph Breaks the Internet
3-Day Opening Weekend Range: $45 – 60 million

No one is betting against Disney these days, and their first sequel to a recent in-house animated hit is poised to deliver another significant holiday run. Early social media metrics are generally in line with those of films like Moana and Coco, suggesting a similar type of run is in store here. Competition with The Grinch will be a factor as parents and kids have plenty of options to choose from in November and December, but the brand name and goodwill of the first Ralph should help guarantee this will be one of the season’s top hits if reviews/word of mouth turn out strong again.


Robin Hood
Opening Weekend Range: $6 – 12 million

Taron Egerton’s rising fame from the Kingsman films and Eddie the Eagle — alongside co-star Jamie Foxx — will be key strengths here, but early sentiment scores for the latest iteration of the iconic character indicate marketing will have some challenges ahead of it. Following its first trailer, Boxoffice is tracking the film’s overall social media footprint behind King Arthur: Legend of the Sword at the same point in the pre-release window. The competitive November market around it adds additional concerns.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

10/19 Halloween 65/160
10/19 The Hate U Give (wide) n/a

10/26 Hunter Killer 9/26
10/26 Johnny English Strikes Again 4/8.75
10/26 Indivisible 2/6

11/2 Bohemian Rhapsody 35/125
11/2 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms 20/79
11/2 TP's Nobody's Fool 15/40
11/2 Suspiria (wide) n/a

11/9 Dr. Seuss' The Grinch 79/305
11/9 The Girl in the Spider's Web 15/45
11/9 Overlord 14/42

11/16 Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindlewald 75/222
11/16 Widows 20/78
11/16 Instant Family 18/?
11/16 A Private War (wide) n/a

11/21 Ralph Breaks the Internet 50/200
11/21 Creed 2 23/80
11/21 Robin Hood 9.5/26
11/21 Green Book n/a
11/21 The Front Runner (wide) n/a

11/30 The Possession of Hannah Grace n/a

12/7 The Silence n/a






With no new wide releases joining our tracking calendar this weekend, we’ve decided to take a look at where the overall market is shaping up to finish by year’s end — and it’s looking like a historic finish.

Based on our tracking models for all major studio films opening between now and and December 31, Boxoffice is projecting 2018 will set a new all-time domestic record gross north of $11.6 billion. That baseline figure would topple 2016’s standing record of $11.38 billion by 2 percent, while also blowing past 2017’s $11.07 billion by nearly 5 percent.

Some models even project a figure over $11.7 billion is well within reach.

How Will We Get There?

2018’s box office has maintained a record pace on a consistent basis throughout most of the year, standing at more than $8.8 billion in revenue through the end of the third quarter* on September 28. We’re currently forecasting the year’s fourth quarter to account for an additional $2.85+ billion in box office sales, representing the period beginning September 29 and ending December 31.

That projection is driven by one of the strongest October markets in years thanks to the presence of Venom, A Star Is Born, and the upcoming Halloween, followed by a packed November slate that could easily see three films cross $200 million individually: The Grinch, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, and Ralph Breaks the Internet.

November’s Bohemian Rhapsody, Creed 2, and Widows should provide further padding as likely mid-range successes, alongside the varying potential of The Nutcracker and the Four Realms, The Girl In the Spider’s Web, Overlord, and Green Book.

If there’s anything resembling a weak spot during the remainder of the year, it may be December — although “weak” is a relative term given how spoiled the industry and audiences have been with massive Star Wars films opening during the Christmas corridor in each of the last three years.

That juggernaut franchise is sitting out this holiday season, but Disney still has an ace up its sleeve with Mary Poppins Returns — a film for which we’ll share early tracking reports in a few weeks, but one that’s already trending like a huge box office hit in the making thanks to stellar social media buzz and very positive trailer reactions.

December will also bring Aquaman, Bumblebee, and Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse — three franchise films that could combine for more than $300 million domestically going into early 2019. Filling out what should still be a solid slate of Christmastime releases will be award season candidates like Clint Eastwood’s The Mule and Adam McKay’s Vice, alongside wild card performers like Mortal Engines, Second Act, and Holmes & Watson.

Essentially, if October and November continue living up to bullish expectations, December won’t need to perform anywhere near the level of last year’s $1.48 billion monthly take in order for 2018 to exceed $11.6 billion.

How High Could 2018 Go?

Current models suggest $11.6 billion may even be slightly conservative as some scenarios position the year finishing between $11.7 billion and $11.8 billion. For that to happen, a great deal would hinge on the ability of November and (especially) December’s releases to meet optimistic expectations and/or over-perform — but a fourth quarter haul north of $3 billion is very possible given the incredible runway October and November are expected to generate.

For comparison, last year’s fourth quarter tallied $2.93 billion even with Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, and Thor: Ragnarok carrying a huge share at year’s end — but they followed a fairly dismal start in October, and a significant under-performance by Justice League in November.

Disney’s aforementioned Mary Poppins sequel could single-handedly send projections closer to those more optimistic scenarios if the film turns out to be an event-level holiday option for families that fully capitalizes on the nostalgia wave like so many movies have recently.

What’s Behind the 2018 Surge?

Projections early in the year certainly did not call for an annual sum on the level we’re now looking at reaching. There are a number of X factors in any given year — release date changes, quality of product/word of mouth, and others that simply cannot be quantified by numbers. This year has proven to be a perfect storm of surprises with mid-range films (A Quiet Place, The Meg, Crazy Rich Asians, and Venom to name a few) and even some already-presumed blockbusters (Black Panther, Avengers: Infinity War, The Incredibles 2, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom) performing well above lofty expectations.

The months ahead are sure to bring deeper dives into this year’s resurgence. We believe the exhibition industry’s efforts toward expanding premium screen offerings and amenities, as well as the proliferation of subscription services — notably AMC’s A-List (which recently crossed 400,000 subscribers), the rise of Sinemia, and the initial interest in Moviepass before a series of overhauls — have played significant roles in rejuvenating enthusiasm and economic viability for moviegoers to see more films in the theater.

Those and other factors are contributing to more volatile box office forecasts than ever before, and will be key components to account for in future projections as the industry continues to adapt and embrace new business models.
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Norman Bates
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

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Shrykespeare wrote:Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


The months ahead are sure to bring deeper dives into this year’s resurgence. We believe the exhibition industry’s efforts toward expanding premium screen offerings and amenities, as well as the proliferation of subscription services — notably AMC’s A-List (which recently crossed 400,000 subscribers), the rise of Sinemia, and the initial interest in Moviepass before a series of overhauls — have played significant roles in rejuvenating enthusiasm and economic viability for moviegoers to see more films in the theater.
This is a bigger reason for growth than people understand. I believe earlier this year it was stated Moviepass itself was responsible for 3% of all tickets sold, which is over half the amount of the increase from last year. Some of it is cannibalization. Obviously some of the tickets bought would already have been bought, but going from personal experience I'm taking chances on tons of stuff I wouldn't have in theaters or even at home.

I think I'm up to 89 movies I've seen in theaters this calendar year (including 2017 releases in January and the eight Harry Potters I took my kid to), exactly 100 2018 releases including Netflix/home video. There's no way I'm getting close to that number without the subscription services. I hit five this weekend (2 MP: El Royale + Sisters Brothers and 3 A-List: A Star is Born + First Man IMAX + Colette) and there is a zero percent chance I'd have seen two of them before they came to Redbox/library, almost zero chance I'd shell out for First Man IMAX (including the sixty minute drive). I'd probably have to choose between El Royale, A Star is Born, and First Man and probably choose next weekend between them and Halloween. Saturday I'm thinking "Do I want to drive home or see this pretentious-looking period piece?" I chose to go see Colette and it was the best film I saw out of the five.

So instead of paying probably $25-35 a month to watch 2-3 movies, I'm paying $30 for both services and seeing about 9 movies. The studios are still getting paid (AMC still has to pay the studios' share while Moviepass has to pay the whole thing) and at a $0 variable cost I'm going to spend a ton of more money if it isn't mine. No way this works out for Moviepass or Sinemia, but perhaps the lower cost the theaters themselves pay will help AMC/Regal/Alamo/Landmark/etc boost sales + concessions.
Tenet: Criterion Edition. Now with more Backwards Man.

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