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Future Tracking From Exhibitors

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Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Buscemi » February 27th, 2011, 12:02 am

Note: Battle Los Angeles is supposed to be 35/95, not 35/950.

http://www.boxoffice.com/featured_stories/2011-02-long-range-forecast-madeas-big-happy-family-water-for-elephants-apollo-18-and-african-cats

Opinions:

- Beastly will be lower than 9/23. There's no buzz on the film and no marketing on it either.
- Battle: Los Angeles will be lower than 35/95. The plot is the same as last year's flop Skyline and word of mouth will be toxic.
- The Lincoln Lawyer will be higher than 7/23. People have been wanting to see McConaughey return to the types of films that made him famous for a while (this has a similar feel to A Time To Kill).
- Despite the Super Bowl ads, Limitless won't do 16/50. Relativity's distributing and they probably blew half the marketing budget on the three Super Bowl ads.
- Source Code won't do 17/55. I think the fact that Summit is selling it as Inception 2 will get audiences to avoid it even more than they would if they knew the actual premise.
- Hanna will do a little better than 4/12 but I see The Soloist-type numbers at best.
- Scream 4 won't hit 50/115. More like 40/75.
- Water For Elephants won't do 19/60. Robert Pattinson hasn't sold a film outside of Twilight (also, it looks too similar to Big Fish).

Tracking Up from previous week:
Rango (3/4) from 42/145 to 46/160
The Adjustment Bureau (3/4) from 12/30 to 14/38

Tracking Down:
Battle: Los Angeles (3/11) from 37/100 to 35/95
Everything on this post is strictly the opinion and only the opinion of Buscemi.

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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby numbersix » February 27th, 2011, 6:47 am

I can see Battle LA doing well. Most people never actually knew about Skyline, and it didn't help that it looked cheap and had zero stars. Battle LA had a decent new trailer, the effects are a lot better, and should do well in a time when people are waiting for a big effects-drive movie.

People are waiting for McConaughey to return to what exactly? He's never been good, hence his retreat into frothy rom coms and the like. The dude could never act, and his fanbase are overwhelmingly 35+ women. I can't see it doing much beyond the predictions

Agreed on Limitless and Hanna.

Not sure what to make of Source Code. I think you're too fixated on the Inception comparison. And if that was true surely that would attract audiences rather than repel them? Still, for a high-concept film in April it looks a little high (maybe 15/45).

Part of me thinks Scream 4 will be a bit of a bomb. It has been a long time since Scream 3 and did anyone actually like it? This just feels more of the same and stinks of desperation. I could see it opening to 20 and making 45 overall.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Buscemi » February 27th, 2011, 2:07 pm

Skyline did make a profit ($65 million worldwide on a $10 million budget) and there are rumors of a sequel (possibly for DVD). With all the hate that Skyline got, people will most likely realize that Battle: Los Angeles is nothing more than polishing a turd.

As for The Lincoln Lawyer, back in the late 1990's there were proclamations of McConaughey being one of the next big things in Hollywood. Movies like A Time To Kill created that buzz. Then typecasting in bad romantic comedies and being tabloid fodder set in. With him returning to roles like the one in A Time To Kill, this could be a return to form.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby numbersix » February 27th, 2011, 2:31 pm

But really, was he any good in A Time to Kill. It was average at best. And besides that and Lone Star, was there anything else to suggest talent? Not really. I suspect the prediction of his greatness came from frothy women's magazines more than anything substantial. Either way, it won't be enough to make The Lincoln Lawyer a hit
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby transformers2 » February 27th, 2011, 2:50 pm

Yeah im with six on Battle:LA, I think it will be a hit. The marketing has been solid and the awareness is a lot higher than Skyline.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Geezer » February 27th, 2011, 10:46 pm

I'm RIDICULOUSLY excited for Battle: Los Angeles. Just saying...
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Buscemi » March 5th, 2011, 9:32 pm

New edition:

http://www.boxoffice.com/featured_stories/2011-03-long-range-forecast-fast-five-hoodwinked-too-hood-vs-evil-prom

I can't see Fast Five doing 65/135. I think 50/110 is more likely.

Moving Up:
Mars Needs Moms: 16/55 to 18/55
Limitless: 16/50 to 17/53
The Lincoln Lawyer: 7/23 to 9/28
Sucker Punch: 23/55 to 25/60 (obviously ignoring the poor test screenings)

Moving Down:
Red Riding Hood: 22/62 to 20/55
Diary of a Wimpy Kid 2: 25/70 to 23/65
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby numbersix » March 6th, 2011, 7:55 am

Fast Five's second week will clash with Thor. I wonder who will win? I'm guessing that Fast Five will open well (yeah, about 50mil) and plummet hard, struggling to make 100 mil. Prom and Hoodwinked look about right, in that I'm not touching either in the game.

I'm beginning to think The Lincoln Lawyer will struggle to hit 10mil opening week and may close at 20 mil, despite BO's predictionas. Still not sure about Limitless.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby W » March 10th, 2011, 2:42 pm

Scream was huge when I was in school. And decade-long sequels/shows turned into films have been doing pretty well over the last year. Maybe it's a bit nostalgic?
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Buscemi » March 10th, 2011, 3:06 pm

Probably not. Scream 3 wasn't exactly Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade or Die Hard With A Vengeance (in fact, Scream 3 was the most hated of the Scream franchise). The fact that this is more of a cash grab and the series already had its end with the last film, I see it being more Friday the 13th or Saw IV than Scream 2 or Scream 3.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby silversurfer19 » March 10th, 2011, 3:52 pm

I think there may well be a bit of nostalgia towards Scream, Helena and I will be going to see it as it was THE horror movie for our generation, and I'm sure there are lots of kids wanting to see a Scream movie on the big screen for the first time. Not sure it'll get close to blockbuster status, but I suspect it could get close to $80m or so.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby BanksIsDaFuture » March 10th, 2011, 5:04 pm

Fast Five will blow Thor out of the water. It's got a great trailer and Fast and Furious made $155M and that was received very well. I could see an OW of above 80M, and a total of $170M, maybe knocking on $200M.

While nobody has interest in Thor at all....May as a whole looks very weak until the 26th, when KFP2 and The Hangover 2 come out.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » March 10th, 2011, 5:09 pm

You don't think Pirates 4 will do well, Banks?
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Buscemi » March 10th, 2011, 5:35 pm

But wasn't anticipation high for 2 Fast 2 Furious also, which ended disappointing at the box office? That's how Fast Five will be. A lower-grossing follow-up to a surprise hit.

Also, The Hangover Part II will open well before dropping quickly. The film looks to be a remake of the first and Due Date was not a good preview for the sequel (the teaser has also been getting a weak reception). I'm guessing 65/150.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby BanksIsDaFuture » March 10th, 2011, 11:04 pm

Shrykespeare wrote:You don't think Pirates 4 will do well, Banks?


It can. But if it doesn't outright bomb, it won't come anywhere close to the 300M+ that the first three grossed. I think a lot of people hated the third, and I think Jack Sparrow only works in doses, and will quickly become annoying anchoring the movie. Big OW, but a quick drop.

Buscemi wrote:But wasn't anticipation high for 2 Fast 2 Furious also, which ended disappointing at the box office? That's how Fast Five will be. A lower-grossing follow-up to a surprise hit.

Also, The Hangover Part II will open well before dropping quickly. The film looks to be a remake of the first and Due Date was not a good preview for the sequel (the teaser has also been getting a weak reception). I'm guessing 65/150.


2 Fast 2 Furious has nothing to do with Fast Five, people remember Fast & Furious - a lot of people went out and watched it and liked it. It's got a 76% fresh on RT from the audiences, and it's got everything a summer blockbuster needs to have - fast cars, hot chicks in bikinis, and lots and lots and lots of action. I can see Fast Five setting a precendent for studios to move summer up to April. Because Thor will not cut it at all.

As for The Hangover Part 2, it could definitely drop off quickly, but I think it all depends if it's anywhere as good as the first to have so many repeat viewers. But I think a 65M OW is a little low.
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