Future Tracking From Exhibitors

[transformers2]

Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates is quite possibly the biggest crapshoot left on the summer release schedule. All four of the leads have never sold a major title by themselves and the trailers haven't made too many waves online, but the concept is unique and relatable and original R-rated comedies tend to thrive this time of year. My bold insider prediction is that it will finish somewhere between 30 and 150 mill

[Chienfantome]

Indeed Spectre, they are quite off. So Warcraft could still open to $50M after all, hell yeah

[Spectre]

Indeed Spectre, they are quite off. So Warcraft could still open to $50M after all, hell yeah

So long as The Legend of Tarzan can open to $50M instead of grossing it as well, I'll let it stand.

[W]

I know it doesn't help a lot with these projections, but if we drafted movies for China Warcraft is projected as having $120-150 5-day opening there.

[Chienfantome]

Yeah, I'v seen that. And it's doing healthy business here in Europe. Opened easily at #1 here in France on opening week.

[numbersix]

Opened #1 in the UK as well. We may be underestimating it

[Shrykespeare]

Okay, fuck, I've left this way too long.


Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

8/12 Pete's Dragon 33/117
8/12 Sausage Party 25/60
8/12 Florence Foster Jenkins 10/45

8/19 War Dogs 19/58
8/19 Ben-Hur 19/55
8/19 Kubo and the Two Strings 13/52

8/26 Don't Breathe 9/22
8/26 Mechanic: Resurrection 8/20
8/26 Hands of Stone 5/14

9/2 Morgan 7.5/21
9/2 The Light Between Oceans 7/30

9/9 Sully 20/74
9/9 When the Bough Breaks 19/40
9/9 Before I Wake 6/12.5
9/9 The Wild Life 3.7/9

9/16 Bridget Jones' Baby 12/39
9/16 Blair Witch 10/22
9/16 Hillsong - Let Hope Rise 6.2/21
9/16 Snowden 6/16

9/23 The Magnificent Seven 49/150
9/23 Storks 21/71




The Magnificent Seven (Sony)

PROS:

Chris Pratt and Denzel Washington are unquestionably two of the biggest A-list actors in Hollywood. Pratt’s two most recent films were absolute box office gold: 2015’s Jurassic World smashed records including highest opening weekend ever at the time (though since beaten by Star Wars: The Force Awakens), while 2014’s Guardians of the Galaxy set the mark for the best August opening weekend ever, second-highest when adjusted for inflation.

The movie — about a group of seven who defend their small town against a group of invaders in the Old West — is a remake of the 1960 Western classic of the same name, which was added a few years ago to the Library of Congress select list of “culturally significant” films. This familiarity could help it attract older audiences in addition to the younger audiences who could be attracted by Pratt and the fight sequences.

The highest September opening weekend of all time is Hotel Transylvania 2 with $48.4 million last year, or adjusted for inflation 1998’s Rush Hour takes the prize with about $60 million. If The Magnificent Seven bests either or both of those numbers, which it stands a serious chance of doing, that would help the film’s word of mouth and its multiplier as well.

CONS:

The Western genre hasn’t done well at the box office in Hollywood’s most recent few attempts, such as The Hateful Eight, A Million Ways to Die in the West, and The Lone Ranger. If this indicates a public turning away from the genre, than this film’s grosses might not be so “magnificent” after all.

A CBS television show of the same title and based on the original film lasted only two seasons from 1998-2000. Perhaps that may indicate the plot line does not have the same resonance or popularity decades later.


Storks (Warner Bros.)

PROS:

The animated movie has a clever premise: in a world where storks deliver packages instead of babies, one bird has to deliver an accidentally-produced baby to her family. This original twist on the parental euphemism “The stork delivered you” could appeal to children given its talking animals and also adults with a wink and a nod.

Excluding early September’s The Wild Life, which is currently projected to have an extremely poor box office showing, there won’t have been a major animated wide release since Kubo and the Two Strings more than a month prior, or another after until Trolls a month and a half later in early November. This sweet spot of timing could help Storks fill a void.

CONS:

The lead character is voiced by Andy Samberg, whose previous starring vehicle Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping is perhaps the biggest bomb of the summer so far, if not the entire year. Comedy duo Keegan-Michael Key and Jordan Peele, who voice a pair of wolves, similarly bombed with their April release Keanu.

[Chienfantome]

Hahaha, Nice Picture Shryke!! I can't believe Amélie Poulain is 40 !!!

[Buscemi]

I think Storks can hit $100 million. It's been well-marketed, the late September slot has been good to animated features, and I feel it's more likely to connect to kids than the Diary of a Wimpy Kid ripoff Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life opening two weeks later.

I think Snowden doubles that estimate. It's also been well-marketed (despite the delays) and Oliver Stone's name is worth at least $10 million.

Hillsong I don't even think does a third of that. Music documentaries hardly make money, it's been on the shelf for two years, and Hillsong is nowhere near as popular as acts (such as Metallica and The Jonas Brothers) that had concert films which were flops. In addition, Pure Flix hasn't had a hit in two years and it will be a matter of time before the Duck Dynasty people stop giving the label money to release films.

[W]

I guess that Middle School thing is fairly popular. I wouldn't be surprised if it hit $60 M. I drafted it in A because I knew my kid liked it and hoped others did as well. I'd bet over on $99 M for Storks and I'd definitely push my chips all in at $71 M. Besides Boxtrolls that date has been good for animation in the past few years and Boxtrolls was just a weird movie to market to a mass audience.

[Shrykespeare]

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

8/26 Don't Breathe 9/22
8/26 Mechanic: Resurrection 8/20
8/26 Hands of Stone 5/14

9/2 The Light Between Oceans 7/30
9/2 Morgan 7/14

9/9 Sully 22/81
9/9 When the Bough Breaks 19/40
9/9 The Wild Life 3.7/9

9/16 Bridget Jones' Baby 12/39
9/16 Blair Witch 10/22
9/16 Hillsong - Let Hope Rise 6.2/21
9/16 Snowden 6/16

9/23 The Magnificent Seven 49/150
9/23 Storks 21/71

9/30 Deepwater Horizon 19/62
9/30 Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children 18/59
9/30 Masterminds 11/29

10/7 The Girl on the Train 24/80
10/7 The Birth of a Nation 19/78
10/7 Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life 5.5/16.5
10/7 Friend Request 3.5/8

10/14 The Accountant 17/60
10/24 Kevin Hart: What Now? 11.5/25



The Accountant (Warner Bros.)

PROS:

The story of an accountant who does the finances for criminal syndicates is a unique premise that could appeal to adults. The original plot stands out in a movie season filled largely with sequels, book adaptations, and remakes/reboots.
The all-star cast including Ben Affleck, Anna Kendrick, and recent Oscar winner J.K. Simmons packs a punch. Kendrick in particular has never been hotter at the box office, with her last two wide releases being Pitch Perfect 2 and Into the Woods.

CONS:

Lead star Affleck has had a very mixed record at the box office in recent years. Of his three most recent wide releases, Gone Girl did great, Runner Runner bombed, and Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice — while making hundreds of millions, which was virtually guaranteed — actually came in below many analysts’ expectations considered its sky-high expectations and name recognition, as a recent New York Times article explained.
The Accountant was originally scheduled for release this past January. January was the lowest-grossing month during every year so far this decade. While its box office potential will doubtless be improved by being released in October instead, this was still originally seen by the studio as a “January” kind of movie. Not a great sign.
This will be competing with other films in the “adult drama/action” genre, including holdovers The Girl on the Train The Birth of a Nation from the weekend before and Deepwater Horizon from two weekends before.


Kevin Hart: What Now? (Universal)

PROS:

Kevin Hart’s 2015 nationwide comedy tour was so popular that he sold out the 53,000 seat Lincoln Financial Field football stadium in Philadelphia. This was the largest audience for a solo comedian since Larry the Cable Guy (of all people) also sold out about 53,000 at University of Nebraska’s Memorial Stadium.
If more than 600,000 people were willing to buy tickets to Hart’s tour, even when prices were averaging almost $200 on the secondary market, presumably millions more would be willing to pay a mere $10 or so to see the same act in theaters.
Hart has been on a roll at the box office recently, with all three of his most recent live action films making at least $90+ million: Central Intelligence, Ride Along, and Get Hard. Make that streak four films if you count his voice role in the animated blockbuster The Secret Life of Pets.
This is Hart’s third comedy concert film. His first, 2011’s Kevin Hart: Laugh at My Pain made $7.7 million in 287 theaters. His next, 2013’s Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain made $32.2 million in 892 theaters. This film is virtually certain to open in more than 1,000 theaters, and the box office gross may improve accordingly.

CONS:

Just because audiences like Hart in acted roles doesn’t mean they’ll flock to him “as himself” in a stand-up comedy concert film. In fact, Laugh at My Pain and Let Me Explain are two of his lower-grossing films this decade.
The trailer has less than one million views on YouTube — a worrying sign.
The stand-up comedy concert genre — a powerhouse in the ’70s and ’80s with now-iconic films from the likes of Eddie Murphy, Steve Martin, and Richard Pryor — has almost completely faded. In fact, except for Hart’s two aforementioned films, no stand-up comedy concert movie made more than $2 million at the box office, with the closest being Sarah Silverman: Jesus Is Magic with $1.7 million in 2005.

[numbersix]

Think The Accountant could do more. It could be a solid thriller and hit 75m.

Not so sure about The Birth of A Nation now that the rape case involving the writer and director has hit the media. Fox may want to push the release to the end of the year in limited and expand in Jan to distance themselves from the media attention.

[Chienfantome]

There's no way that with such bad publicity Birth hit that high. Even before that it wouldn't have, it sure won't.

[Buscemi]

12 Years a Slave didn't even hit that amount and that had Brad Pitt involved. I think the massive overhype out of Sundance (where the film wasn't even that well-received) convinced trackers that it was going to be big. I don't even think it hits $30 million.

I'm not really buying into the hype on The Girl on the Train. Gone Girl was big not only because of the book but also because David Fincher (a director with one of the most rabid fanbases there is) directed it and you had a big star in Ben Affleck who was hot off of a Best Picture winner. The Girl on the Train has neither. And best sellers don't always translate to big box office (see The Kite Runner).

As for The Accountant, I think that could be a hard sell due to the mental disability subplot. Affleck can sell a movie (see above) but will audiences buy him as a man with Aspberger's (yes, it's supposed to be OCD but the traits point to Aspberger's)? It won't bomb but it won't be huge either.

[transformers2]

GIrl on the Train more than likely won't hit Gone Girl numbers, but I think it'll make somewhere between $90 and 125 mil. Adult thrillers tend to do well in the fall, the schedule around it is pretty open and most importantly, the book was a massive success that is fresh in the minds of its readers (it was released in January of last year).