ReelSociety Forums


Your home for all Reel and Real discussions.

Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Discuss weekly box office numbers, PTA numbers, and date changes.

Moderators: Buscemi, BarcaRulz, Geezer, W

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Buscemi » July 15th, 2017, 12:58 am

Artistic liberties happen all the time in so-called true stories. They'll change things around, add things that didn't happen, leave out what did, and tie it all up in a bow to get a Cinemascore up from a B+ to an A- and add $10 million to the final gross.

And The Big Sick is a Judd Apatow production (and is being promoted as such instead of "from the director of Hello, My Name is Doris", which would be more appropriate). He often confuses "harsh truths" with "bros party until they're naked".

But anyway, Annie Hall is perhaps the truest romantic story ever made, as well as the funniest. And it was a hit and won Best Picture. So why can't we have more films like Annie Hall?
Everything on this post is strictly the opinion and only the opinion of Buscemi.

Spotify: http://open.spotify.com/user/1244530511/playlist/6exMMnE4Kpu99GBj16VEmr
User avatar
Buscemi
CONGRATS! You may now chose your own rank!
 
Posts: 16164
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 11:14 am
Location: Baltimore State Hospital for the Criminally Insane

Advertisement

 

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » July 22nd, 2017, 9:51 pm

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


7/28 The Emoji Movie 30/105
7/28 Atomic Blonde 26/82.5

8/4 The Dark Tower 33/84
8/4 Detroit 13/31
8/4 Kidnap 4/9
8/4 An Inconvenient Sequel n/a

8/11 Annabelle: Creation 27/61
8/11 The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature 12/40
8/11 The Glass Castle 3.5/10.5

8/18 The Hitman's Bodyguard 19/57
8/18 Logan Lucky 12/39

8/25 Polaroid 9/23.5
8/25 All Saints 4/12
8/25 Birth of the Dragon 2.5/5.5
8/25 Crown Heights n/a
8/25 Tulip Fever n/a
8/25 A Gentleman n/a

8/30 Leap! 4.5/15.8
9/1 Renegades 4/9.5
9/1 Unlocked n/a

9/8 It 40/100
9/8 Home Again 12/45

9/15 American Assassin 10/25
9/15 All I See is You 6.5/15.6
9/15 mother! n/a



PROS:

American Assassin (Lionsgate) has the benefit of source material to cull existing fans from, as well as Michael Keaton’s adult audience combined with Dylan O’Brien’s younger audience.

All I See Is You will hope to appeal to fans of Blake Lively, who turned 2015’s The Age of Adaline into a solid mid-range performer with positive word of mouth that generated $42 million domestically.


CONS:

Coming off the heels of summer and the previous week’s It, we feel American Assassin is more likely poised to perform along the modest levels of The November Man, A Walk Among the Tombstones, etc. Social media buzz is fairly muted this far out from release.

Likewise, All I See Is You‘s target female audience could be preoccupied with Home Again (opening the week before) if reception for the latter film is positive.
Happy 60th birthday Steve Buscemi! (12/13/17)
User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
 
Posts: 10981
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Buscemi » July 22nd, 2017, 10:04 pm

I don't think All I See is You does that. Early word's been quite negative and Open Road hasn't done anything to promote it. With mother! moving up, this could end up being dumped into a few hundred theatres with no marketing.

American Assassin is a wild card. On one hand, it is based on a popular book series and CBS has spent years trying to adapt Vince Flynn's books to the screen (they're hoping this is the start of a franchise as Consent to Kill's also in the works). On the other hand, most of these adaptations of popular book series haven't been successful enough to get sequels and Flynn's audience isn't really the type that goes to the theatre (suggesting it could be a bigger hit on home video and Showtime). But there isn't much else out and audiences might come for the cast.
Everything on this post is strictly the opinion and only the opinion of Buscemi.

Spotify: http://open.spotify.com/user/1244530511/playlist/6exMMnE4Kpu99GBj16VEmr
User avatar
Buscemi
CONGRATS! You may now chose your own rank!
 
Posts: 16164
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 11:14 am
Location: Baltimore State Hospital for the Criminally Insane

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » July 22nd, 2017, 10:11 pm

Buscemi wrote:Flynn's audience isn't really the type that goes to the theatre


Explain this statement to me.
Happy 60th birthday Steve Buscemi! (12/13/17)
User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
 
Posts: 10981
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Buscemi » July 22nd, 2017, 10:37 pm

It's a older, male, conservative audience mainly rooted in middle America. Now before you go all "you said that about Dunkirk" on me, the works of Vince Flynn don't have a sister audience that can help like Dunkirk did (and I didn't say Dunkirk would bomb, I just didn't think it had a very wide audience outside of certain niche groups). The books are mainly best sellers among right wingers and the airport/supermarket crowd (the latter being a lot of the same people that make John Grisham, James Patterson, Janet Evanovich, and other thriller novelists big deals), typically those that really don't go watch movies in the theatres but wait until they can get them on Redbox or hit TV.

Or maybe I have a glass half-empty viewpoint and think most everyone's an asshole.
Everything on this post is strictly the opinion and only the opinion of Buscemi.

Spotify: http://open.spotify.com/user/1244530511/playlist/6exMMnE4Kpu99GBj16VEmr
User avatar
Buscemi
CONGRATS! You may now chose your own rank!
 
Posts: 16164
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 11:14 am
Location: Baltimore State Hospital for the Criminally Insane

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » July 22nd, 2017, 11:53 pm

Can't both be true? :lol: :lol: :lol:
Happy 60th birthday Steve Buscemi! (12/13/17)
User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
 
Posts: 10981
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Chienfantome » July 23rd, 2017, 6:07 am

There's no way "American Assassin" does so little at the BO. It seems like there are forecasting the absolute worst case scenario. It should easily double those numbers.
Fluctuat nec mergitur
User avatar
Chienfantome
Atticus Finch
 
Posts: 8454
Joined: May 29th, 2010, 4:22 am
Location: Paris, France

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby numbersix » July 23rd, 2017, 6:44 am

Well, Boosh, you did say highs 20s and a cume in the mid 80s for Dunkirk, which would have been a bomb ;)

But I agree on American Assassin. Combine the date, the distributor, and the cast (with Keaton being the biggest name there) and you've got something fairly generic which could easily disappear. And with Mother opening that weekend you could see that stealing all but the older adult male audience (but even thy would lean more to a JLaw thriller if the reviews are good).
User avatar
numbersix
Luke Skywalker
 
Posts: 9159
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 2:34 pm

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Buscemi » July 23rd, 2017, 12:23 pm

I did have big international numbers though and that's what the industry cares about nowadays. ;)

Meanwhile, it's looking Detroit might not be as wide as planned. The local, non-profit arthouse is getting it on release day and they typically don't book day-and-date with multiplexes (though they did with The Birth of a Nation, which died after only a week). They are also getting Landline the same day, which may or may not still be getting a wide expansion on the 4th (Amazon said they would be going wide though Magnolia has never gone wide, however Magnolia's name has been left off of the promotion which suggests that Amazon is paying for prints and advertising).
Everything on this post is strictly the opinion and only the opinion of Buscemi.

Spotify: http://open.spotify.com/user/1244530511/playlist/6exMMnE4Kpu99GBj16VEmr
User avatar
Buscemi
CONGRATS! You may now chose your own rank!
 
Posts: 16164
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 11:14 am
Location: Baltimore State Hospital for the Criminally Insane

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » July 29th, 2017, 5:03 pm

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


8/4 The Dark Tower 28/71
8/4 Detroit 13/41
8/4 Kidnap 4/9
8/4 An Inconvenient Sequel n/a

8/11 Annabelle: Creation 27/61
8/11 The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature 12/40
8/11 The Glass Castle 3.5/10.5

8/18 The Hitman's Bodyguard 19/57
8/18 Logan Lucky 12/39
8/18 The Adventurers n/a

8/25 All Saints 4/12
8/25 Birth of the Dragon 2.5/5.5
8/25 Crown Heights n/a
8/25 Tulip Fever n/a
8/25 A Gentleman n/a

8/30 Leap! 4.5/15.8
9/1 Unlocked n/a

9/8 It 40/100
9/8 Home Again 12/45

9/15 American Assassin 10/25
9/15 All I See is You 6.5/15.6
9/15 mother! n/a

9/22 The LEGO Ninjago Movie 40/138
9/22 Kingsman: The Golden Circle 39/100
9/22 Friend Request n/a



Kingsman: The Golden Circle
Fox


PROS:

The first film was a bona fide hit that successfully counter-programmed the Fifty Shades of Grey juggernaut over Valentine’s weekend in 2015. Earning $36 million that weekend and $128 million domestically overall, the charming sleeper hit built a solid fan base out of an already existing one from its graphic novel origins.

The return of key cast members Taron Egerton, Colin Firth, and Marc Strong combined with the inclusion of Channing Tatum, Julianne Moore, Jeff Bridges, and Elton John should increase appeal of the Brit-heavy cast to American audiences. Matthew Vaughn’s return behind the camera is also an encouraging sign, marking his first sequel as director following hits like the original Kingsman, X-Men: First Class, and the original Kick-Ass.

Reactions to the film’s first trailers have been very positive. Social media was a major component of the first film’s pre-release buzz and that looks to be the case again here.

After what appears to be a weak end of summer slate, audiences should be hungry for a high profile film of this nature come the first day of autumn.

CONS:

As past franchises like Kick-Ass and Sin City have shown, it’s very difficult for graphic novel adaptations (or most genres, really) to capture lightning in a bottle twice. Even if reviews are strong, American crowds eager for something “fresh” may not have the same feelings toward this sequel as they did for the original.

Although plenty of films have proven the year-round calendar is viable for varying ranges of box office success, nevertheless, mid-to-late September is still a challenging window for films to exceed expectations.

Competition in the weeks after release could be challenging with American Made and Blade Runner 2049 set to open in the film’s second and third weekend, respectively.


The LEGO Ninjago Movie
Warner Bros.


PROS:

The fantastic success of both The LEGO Movie and this year’s LEGO Batman Movie have proven the LEGO brand is more than viable as a franchise film player.
The sub-brand component here — that being Ninjago — is fairly popular among young boys, which could make this a solid choice for father/son matinees (in addition to the usual family appeal).
Another all-star cast of comedy talents should help appeal to parents, especially after a drought of big animated films in late summer.

CONS:

Social media activity on this entry hasn’t been as ecstatic as that of the previous LEGO movies, particularly on Facebook where momentum is currently lukewarm at best. That could change closer to release, though.
Franchise fatigue exists within animated franchises as well as any others. Will teens and parents view this as a fresh comedy for all ages or “just another LEGO movie”?
Happy 60th birthday Steve Buscemi! (12/13/17)
User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
 
Posts: 10981
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Buscemi2 » July 29th, 2017, 10:30 pm

I'm thinking Ninjago does less than that. Being the first film in the Lego series not connected to The Lego Movie, it needed a really strong trailer to sell to more than children. It simply looks like a lame, whitewashed attempt at parodying mecha and martial arts films. Besides, we already have the Kung Fu Panda trilogy to meet our family-friendly Asian-themed cinema fix.

And I have to wonder how the Statesman subplot will play with American fans of the Kingsman series. A lot of the film's target audience seems to agree with Mark Millar's narrow-minded, far-right viewpoints but how will they like Millar and Vaughn making fun of American jingoism? I get the feeling this might open well and die quickly.
User avatar
Buscemi2
Kirk Lazarus
 
Posts: 493
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » August 12th, 2017, 1:28 pm

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

8/18 The Hitman's Bodyguard 17.5/51
8/18 Logan Lucky 12/39

8/25 All Saints 4/14.5
8/25 Birth of the Dragon 2.5/5.5
8/25 Leap! 4.25/14.9

9/8 It 46/115
9/8 Home Again 12/45

9/15 American Assassin 11.5/29
9/15 mother! 10.5/27
9/15 All I See is You 6.5/15.6

9/22 The LEGO Ninjago Movie 40/138
9/22 Kingsman: The Golden Circle 39/100
9/22 Friend Request n/a

9/29 American Made 15/50.5
9/29 Flatliners 11/26
9/29 A Question of Faith n/a

10/6 Blade Runner 2049 44/115
10/6 The Mountain Between Us 8/25
10/6 My Little Pony 7.5/21.5


Blade Runner 2049
Warner Bros.


PROS:

Since its release 35 years ago, Blade Runner has become regarded as a seminal piece of work in the realm of science fiction cinema. With its fans now spanning multiple generations, curiosity and anticipation are driving significant interest in this sequel.

Ryan Gosling is fresh off another acclaimed role in the hugely successful La La Land, on top of his already impressive resume. He could be a key factor in helping this film appeal beyond the target adult male audience, while the return of Harrison Ford will also excite his own fan base.

Director Denis Villenueve is similarly riding momentum from last year’s Oscar-nominated Arrival. His own fan base has been building in recent years thanks to the critical and commercial reception of that film, Sicario, and Prisoners.

The film’s initial trailer campaign has intrigued audiences and excited fans. Across social media, the sequel’s Twitter footprint has recently been on par with Alien: Covenant and significantly ahead of Mad Max: Fury Road at the same point before release.

October has proven in recent years that it’s capable of hosting successful genre films that would have been saved for summer or holiday releases in decades past. Examples: the blockbuster success of films like Gravity and The Martian. The lack of significant and direct competition opening after it until November could be an advantage for staying power if mainstream audiences latch onto the film.

CONS:

Although held in high regard within film circles, the original Blade Runner was certainly far more niche in its time than other sci-fi blockbusters of the 1980's. Its original $28 million domestic run in 1982 was quite modest, ranking 27th for the year. If this sequel embraces a similarly esoteric story, mainstream appeal beyond opening weekend could be somewhat limited.

Facebook growth has been stagnant recently, making it something to keep an eye on in the weeks ahead. Still, with nearly 1.4 million total fans so far, it has tripled the number of ‘likes’ Mad Max: Fury Road generated by the same two-month pre-release window.

This film’s release on October 6 will mark the fourth consecutive weekend featuring an opener targeted heavily toward adult males, following September 15’s American Assassin, September 22’s Kingsman: The Golden Circle, and September 29’s American Made. Maintaining strong marketing — as well as buzz from early screenings and critics — will be important toward the goal of meeting its full potential on opening weekend.


This Week’s Other Additions

Following the release of its first trailer, our initial forecast for Darren Aronofsky’s mother! (Paramount) is now included in the table . Although we expect his fan base to turn out, the increasing potential of It one week earlier may limit audience reach for the Jennifer Lawrence vehicle.

The Mountain Between Us (Fox), also debuting on October 6, is currently generating lukewarm social media activity. That’s not a major concern given its nature as a relatively small profile release, but our expectations are modest for now. On the upside, it could prove to be a solid counter-programmer among women.

My Little Pony (Lionsgate) will also debut the same weekend, although the studio’s history with animated titles leaves us on the conservative side. With LEGO Ninjago likely to still be doing solid business in its third weekend at this time, this film will be relying mainly on mothers with young daughters.
Happy 60th birthday Steve Buscemi! (12/13/17)
User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
 
Posts: 10981
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Buscemi2 » August 12th, 2017, 5:53 pm

My Little Pony will probably make $21.5 million on opening day. Bronies, freaking Bronies (in fact, I'd suggest not going to a theatre showing My Little Pony if you want to watch something else).

Meanwhile, I still don't get why people think Blade Runner 2049 is going to do well. It's an unnecessary sequel and it simply looks like a soulless cash grab. I'm thinking more The Dark Tower than Gravity with it.
User avatar
Buscemi2
Kirk Lazarus
 
Posts: 493
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » August 19th, 2017, 11:26 am

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

8/25 All Saints 4/14.5
8/25 Birth of the Dragon 2.5/5.5
8/25 Leap! 3.8/13.3

9/8 It 46/115
9/8 Home Again 12/45

9/15 American Assassin 11.5/29
9/15 mother! 10.5/27
9/15 All I See is You 6.5/15.6

9/22 The LEGO Ninjago Movie 40/138
9/22 Kingsman: The Golden Circle 39/100
9/22 Friend Request n/a

9/29 American Made 15/50.5
9/29 Flatliners 11/26
9/29 A Question of Faith n/a

10/6 Blade Runner 2049 44/115
10/6 The Mountain Between Us 8/25
10/6 My Little Pony 7.5/21.5

10/13 Happy Death Day 20/40
10/13 Marshall 12/39
10/13 The Foreigner 10/27.7



PROS:

The Foreigner (STX Entertainment) will mark Jackie Chan’s first live action wide release in North America since 2010’s Karate Kid remake. With director Martin Campbell (Casino Royale) behind the lens, and Pierce Brosnan also headlining the cast, this thriller could appeal to fans of A Walk Among the Tombstones and the Taken series.

Happy Death Day (Universal/Blumhouse) appears to be the marquee horror release of October until Jigsaw later in the month, and its PG-13 rating should attract teenage crowds. Opening on Friday the 13th should also give it a strong opening weekend as long as reviews and pre-release buzz are at least somewhat positive.

Marshall (Open Road Films) will see Chadwick Boseman take on another important historical figure after his turns as Jackie Robinson and James Brown in 42 and Get On Up, respectively. For now, box office expectations for Marshall are closer to the latter example, but, if the film generates early award season buzz, it could surprise in the long run.


CONS:

Word of mouth for Blade Runner 2049 will be key entering this weekend, particularly when it comes to The Foreigner‘s aspirations since both films will target largely male audiences. Given STX’s limited marketing reach with most of their films to date, it remains to be seen what kind of push they give for Jackie Chan’s return to live action.

Opening just over one month after It, which is well on its way to breaking out based on early buzz, Happy Death Day could be held back by having some of its pre-Halloween thunder stolen by the aforementioned horror pic.

As is common with low-to-mid tier releases during this time of year, social media buzz is generally muted across Twitter, Facebook, and Flixster for both Marshall and The Foreigner.
Happy 60th birthday Steve Buscemi! (12/13/17)
User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
 
Posts: 10981
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Buscemi2 » August 19th, 2017, 6:22 pm

Marshall's going to be DOA. Open Road has no idea how to market the film and Reginald Hudlin's nowadays remembered for his run as head of BET as well as Black Panther (neither of which was well-received) than doing House Party (yes, he produced Django Unchained but that's always going to be viewed as a Tarantino film). In addition, if Detroit couldn't take off, this won't either.

The Foreigner has a good trailer but neither Jackie Chan nor Pierce Brosnan have had a hit in a long time (you usually see their works go day-and-date domestically). I get a feeling this will make all its money internationally.
User avatar
Buscemi2
Kirk Lazarus
 
Posts: 493
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

PreviousNext

Return to Tracking, Estimates, and Date Changes

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest