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Future Tracking From Exhibitors

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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Buscemi » May 20th, 2017, 11:42 am

I can't see Wish Upon doing that well. The teaser trailer was very amateurish looking (though to be fair, it was still filming when it came out) and Broad Green's financial woes combined with the new Orion's inexperience with wide releases would make it surprising if it could hit half that.

And though there is no projection of The Big Sick's wide release, I'm going to say it makes a little less than Hello, My Name is Doris. Buzz has been through the roof but Kumail Nanijani is no Sally Field (in fact, I bet most audiences will think he's the Indian guy from The Big Bang Theory instead of Silicon Valley) and Lionsgate and Amazon's previous attempt at distributing a wide appeal film together (The Wall) resulted in a box office disaster. This would probably fare better during awards season than as a summer film (especially with Wonderstruck's mixed early word, which seems to suggest that it could get some re-editing and a delay to 2018).
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » May 27th, 2017, 12:03 pm

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

6/2 Wonder Woman 111/300
6/2 Captain Underpants 31/103.5

6/9 The Mummy 44/114
6/9 It Comes at Night 12.5/40.6
6/9 Megan Landry 4.5/14

6/16 Cars 3 49/180
6/16 Rough Night 25/80
6/16 All Eyez on Me 18/49
6/16 47 Meters Down n/a

6/23 Transformers: The Last Knight, 70/205

6/28 Baby Driver 15/50
6/30 Despicable Me 3 75/270
6/30 The House 26/95
6/30 Amityville: The Awakening 8.5/18

7/7 Spider-Man: Homecoming 135/325

7/14 War for the Planet of the Apes 54/150
7/14 Wish Upon 11/25.5
7/14 The Big Sick n/a

7/21 Dunkirk 60/240
7/21 Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets 24/70
7/21 Girls Trip 17/60



Dunkirk
Warner Bros.


PROS:

Christopher Nolan has earned his place on a short list of modern filmmakers who can attract attention to a new project just by having his name attached. The domestic and global popularity of films like The Dark Knight Trilogy, Inception, and Interstellar have been well-documented at this point, and that collection of goodwill should certainly translate into strong awareness and interest in Dunkirk.

As the studio has directly noted, Mr. Nolan emphasizes that this film is to be viewed as an “action/thriller” and not a typical “war movie” — a description that may be telling of how it will play to crowds in the middle of summer popcorn movie season. Even then, however, the film is already an early candidate for awards season in dramatic and technical categories.

Social media buzz is pointedly sharper for Dunkirk two months out from release than it was for Interstellar. Twitter activity is likely benefiting from the film’s presence of English pop star Harry Styles, but Facebook growth — which generally caters to older segments of potential moviegoers — is nearly three times stronger than Nolan’s sci-fi film.

Regarding older audiences, this film not only is expected to play well among veterans and their families, but Nolan’s own typical young adult-and-upward crowd that have been at the core of his audience base for the past decade. If a sizable portion of the American Sniper audience turns out, the film’s ceiling could increase even further and make comparisons to Saving Private Ryan even more relevant. That film earned $216.5 million in Summer 1998, still standing as the highest grossing World War II film in domestic history.

As many often lament the absence of “smart” or “adult-friendly” blockbuster fare every summer, Dunkirk promises to serve as exactly that option for moviegoers this year. The absence of significant competition throughout August and September also points to what may be a very leggy run — as is typical for the filmmaker’s movies.

With over 100 minutes of high resolution IMAX footage (the most Nolan has ever shot for one project), the film will also gain marquee interest in premium theater runs.

Looking beyond domestic box office for a moment, the Dunkirk evacuation is one of the most famous stories of WWII around the globe — particularly, for obvious reasons, in the United Kingdom. Combined with the presence of Harry Styles, there’s a strong chance Dunkirk could be a contender for one of the best box office runs in the history of the country if it fully taps into its potential of cultural significance. Nolan’s highest earner in his home country was The Dark Knight ($89 million) nine years ago, while the all-time U.K. record belongs to Skyfall ($161.2 million).



CONS:

Historical epics can often be tough sells to young adult audiences, especially given that today’s American audiences aren’t overly familiar with 1940’s Battle of Dunkirk — a pivotal moment in modern human history. Still, the hope is for the filmmaker’s reputation to drive interest among those who may otherwise not be as aware of the importance of the event.

Flixster users are definitely optimistic with a 99 percent “want to see” score, but the overall volume of voters is notably lower than it was for Interstellar at the same point. This isn’t a huge concern, but it’s worth considering.

Although Dunkirk arguably *is* the competition, it’s also worth keeping in mind that the film follows Spider-Man: Homecoming and War for the Planet of the Apes in what’s shaping up to be a busy July marketplace. Good films can overcome long odds, but this is another factor that may signal a less front-loaded type of opening weekend and lead to strong holding power throughout the rest of summer (perhaps similar to Inception seven years ago).
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Buscemi » May 27th, 2017, 12:24 pm

I'm thinking Dunkirk opens to half that and Girls Trip opens to double to what they're saying.

Dunkirk's going to be big in Europe but a war film with no American characters (interestingly, last month's release Their Finest has a subplot on the filmmakers trying to figure out how to sell a film on Dunkirk to Americans) is going to have a hard time playing outside of the big markets. Nolan's name and a very intense trailer are some strong points but it's not going to bring in those that flocked to American Sniper or even Hacksaw Ridge.

Girls Trip also had a strong trailer (the red band trailer shown before Get Out) but I think it will bring in an oft-ignored audience hungry for feel good comedies. And when you put out a good, crowd pleasing female-aimed comedy for the summer, people show up. I could see this topping out at $80-90 million.

As I mentioned on another thread, I think Valerian opens light but plays through August and into Labor Day. The last week of July and all of August are a wasteland and I see this being a much easier sell than Atomic Blonde (is there an audience for this besides 14 year-old boys who can't get into the film without a parent?) or Annabelle: Creation and one with better word-of-mouth than The Dark Tower.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » June 3rd, 2017, 11:24 am

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

6/9 The Mummy 39/100
6/9 It Comes at Night 11.5/33.5
6/9 Megan Landry 4/12.5

6/16 Cars 3 56/206
6/16 Rough Night 25/80
6/16 All Eyez on Me 18/49
6/16 47 Meters Down n/a

6/23 Transformers: The Last Knight, 70/187

6/28 Baby Driver 15/50
6/30 Despicable Me 3 75/270
6/30 The House 26/95
6/30 Amityville: The Awakening 8.5/18

7/7 Spider-Man: Homecoming 135/325

7/14 War for the Planet of the Apes 54/150
7/14 Wish Upon 11/25.5
7/14 The Big Sick n/a

7/21 Dunkirk 60/240
7/21 Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets 24/70
7/21 Girls Trip 17/60

7/28 The Emoji Movie 27/95
7/28 Atomic Blonde 27/82.5



Atomic Blonde
Focus Features


PROS:

Charlize Theron’s stock as an action star has skyrocketed thanks to popular turns in the widely successful Mad Max: Fury Road and The Fate of the Furious. She could help this film transcend the usual male-heavy audience of similar genre flicks.

Similarly, James McAvoy’s popularity and appeal are also positive factors following his acclaimed performance in Split earlier this year, on top of his fan-favorite take on young Charles Xavier in the X-Men franchise.

Hailing from the director (David Leitch) of John Wick and the upcoming Deadpool 2, genre fans may take notable interest in this actioner.
The film’s marketing and trailer campaign have been strong thus far, eliciting the kind of frenetic popcorn action that helped make the John Wick films successful. The desire and need for original summer movies could also play into potential success.


CONS:

We’d like to see more growth on Facebook and Twitter, but as an original film, there’s still plenty of time for that to occur over the summer.
Initial reviews from festival screenings are generally positive with a 76 percent Rotten Tomatoes score from 17 critics, but a larger sample size will help validate what to expect from general audience reception.

The film opens at the end of a very busy July, particularly for target adult audiences. The holding power of films like Dunkirk and War for the Planet of the Apes could be important to deciding the eventual results of this film — however, with a $30 million production budget, it certainly doesn’t *need* to become a blockbuster to be a hit. Staying power may be the name of the game if reception is strong.



The Emoji Movie
Sony / Columbia


PROS:

The ubiquitous existence of emojis in every day life for audiences of almost every age gives this some pedigree of brand familiarity and interest, perhaps not unlike The Angry Birds Movie.

Opening four weeks after Despicable Me 3 — and only facing The Nut Job 2 as direct competition until late September — should help the film find a sizable family audience.

The film’s voice cast of well-known comedic actors like Patrick Stewart, Anna Faris, James Corden, T.J. Miller, Maya Rudolph, and Rob Riggle, could also help convince parents and teens to give the film a try.

CONS:

Unfortunately, the premise of a movie about emojis has become the butt of numerous jokes — some in a positive way, and others not so much. Then again, expectations were mixed for the likes of Angry Birds and The LEGO Movie, so we’re not counting out the possibility this proves to be more appealing to teens and potentially some older crowds than it initially appears to be.

Social media buzz is lukewarm at this stage. A strong marketing campaign and positive reviews could improve it by the time July 28 rolls around.

Although there’s a fair amount of time between this film and other high profile animated films, it will still be the fourth animated release of the summer. Parents can only spend so much on the genre within in a short time frame, especially with The LEGO Ninjago Movie coming in late September.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Buscemi » June 3rd, 2017, 6:26 pm

Atomic Blonde's not going to do that well. SXSW reviews were positive but pretty much everything gets praise there, regardless of quality. I just can't see it appealing to anyone outside of teen boys. Charlize Theron kicked plenty of ass in Mad Max: Fury Road but this looks more like Aeon Flux (that failed franchise starter from a decade earlier).

And based on the new trailer for The Emoji Movie, I can't see that doing well either despite the open field. The film looks as if Sony combined elements of Inside Out, Wreck-It Ralph, the Smurfs movie that bombed recently, and The Lego Movie, tacked on a cliche human plot (I have a hard time believing a pre-teen boy is that obsessed with Emoji), and somehow, the studio decided this could make $200 million. It's not. The film is already a joke on the Internet and kids will just want their sequels and whatever DreamWorks is offering on Netflix.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » June 9th, 2017, 8:48 pm

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


6/16 Cars 3 56/206
6/16 Rough Night 22/65
6/16 All Eyez on Me 20/54
6/16 47 Meters Down n/a

6/23 Transformers: The Last Knight, 70/187

6/28 Baby Driver 15/60
6/30 Despicable Me 3 75/270
6/30 The House 26/95
6/30 Amityville: The Awakening 8.5/18

7/7 Spider-Man: Homecoming 135/325

7/14 War for the Planet of the Apes 54/150
7/14 Wish Upon 11/25.5
7/14 The Big Sick n/a

7/21 Dunkirk 60/240
7/21 Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets 24/70
7/21 Girls Trip 17/60

7/28 The Emoji Movie 27/95
7/28 Atomic Blonde 27/82.5

8/4 The Dark Tower 42/107
8/4 Detroit n/a
8/4 Kidnap n/a
8/4 An Inconvenient Sequel n/a




The Dark Tower
Sony / Columbia


PROS:

One of Stephen King’s most popular properties, the source material has had fans eagerly awaiting a big screen adaptation for years.

Casting popular leading men Idris Elba and Matthew McConaughey as the story’s two iconic characters adds a boost of star power.

Social media buzz has been solid thus far, particularly since the first trailer released.

With what looks to be a lukewarm slate of August releases this year, Dark Tower should have room to breathe and take advantage of word of mouth going into Labor Day weekend.


CONS:

Despite considerable excitement among King fans, the book series doesn’t have quite the large, rabid fan base as past blockbuster adaptations like The Hunger Games, Harry Potter, etc.

Reactions to the trailer have been mostly encouraging, but somewhat muted compared to what is typical or needed of a film that aims to start a new franchise.

The fact remains that July’s market is shaping up to be very busy, and that could translate to some level of moviegoer burnout by the time August rolls around. Strong word of mouth and overseas performances will likely be key to ensuring future sequels for the series.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Buscemi » June 9th, 2017, 8:53 pm

I think the biggest obstacle for The Dark Tower is that it's a sequel to the books rather than a straight adaptation of The Gunslinger (the first book). As a result, this could cause the end result to be for fans only.

Detroit could do okay but I feel the rest are DOA (and An Inconvenient Sequel might end up like Everybody Wants Some!! last year and not even go wide).
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » June 9th, 2017, 9:10 pm

Perhaps, perhaps not. I'm betting there will be a lot of people who want to see Dark Tower who haven't read the book and are not familiar with the story (I count yours truly in that group). They'll go because it looks badass and because Idris and Matthew are a great on-screen combination.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby BanksIsDaFuture » June 9th, 2017, 9:21 pm

I don't know anything about The Dark Tower or The Gunslinger, but the trailer makes it look like a Percy Jackson sequel. That's the biggest obstacle IMO.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » June 17th, 2017, 10:02 pm

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


6/23 Transformers: The Last Knight, 50/180

6/28 Baby Driver 15/82.5
6/30 Despicable Me 3 86/280
6/30 The House 23/80

7/7 Spider-Man: Homecoming 125/301

7/14 War for the Planet of the Apes 54/150
7/14 Wish Upon 10/23
7/14 The Big Sick n/a

7/21 Dunkirk 60/240
7/21 Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets 24/70
7/21 Girls Trip 17/60

7/28 The Emoji Movie 27/95
7/28 Atomic Blonde 27/82.5

8/4 The Dark Tower 42/107
8/4 Detroit n/a
8/4 Kidnap 5/12
8/4 An Inconvenient Sequel n/a

8/11 Annabelle: Creation 23/52
8/11 The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature 12/40
8/11 The Glass Castle 3.5/10.5




Annabelle: Creation
Warner Bros. / New Line


PROS:

The first Conjuring spin-off was a solid hit in October 2014, earning over $84 million domestically.

Since then, The Conjuring 2 further buoyed the franchise’s popularity with a $102.5 million domestic run last summer.

August’s (seeming) lack of standout blockbuster offerings could work to this film’s advantage, especially considering the lack of horror hits so far in 2017.

CONS:

Initial buzz is relatively quiet right now, although that’s not unheard of in the horror genre this far from release.

Recent and past horror franchises have shown how vulnerable they are to diminishing returns as sequels are churned out at a quick rate.


The Glass Castle
Lionsgate


PROS:

Based on Jeannette Walls’ best-selling memoir, there’s an existing audience of fans to cull from.

Brie Larson’s rising star in the wake of her Oscar win last year — plus Woody Harrelson’s resurgence in high profile films — further aid appeal to adult audiences.

CONS:

It’s often very difficult for adult dramas to break out during this time of year as summer vacations come to an end.

Lionsgate could easily opt to release this in a more limited fashion, which make wide release forecasts volatile for the time being.


The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature
Open Road Films


PROS:

2014’s first film was a surprise success, earning $64 million domestically with its winter release date.

As the last animated film scheduled to open before September 22’s LEGO Ninjago Movie, families with young children could drive staying power.

CONS:

This is the fifth major animated title to open within a two-month span. The family market will be well-satiated by this point, especially just two weeks out from The Emoji Movie and heading back into school season.

Although the first film was a financial winner for Open Road, its run didn’t suggest breakout demand for a sequel.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » July 1st, 2017, 6:40 pm

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


7/7 Spider-Man: Homecoming 125/301

7/14 War for the Planet of the Apes 60/165
7/14 Wish Upon 8.5/19.5

7/21 Dunkirk 57.5/240
7/21 Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets 24/70
7/21 Girls Trip 17/60

7/28 The Emoji Movie 27/95
7/28 Atomic Blonde 27/82.5

8/4 The Dark Tower 42/107
8/4 Detroit n/a
8/4 Kidnap 5/12
8/4 An Inconvenient Sequel n/a

8/11 Annabelle: Creation 27/61
8/11 The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature 12/40
8/11 The Glass Castle 3.5/10.5

8/18 The Hitman's Bodyguard 19/57
8/18 Logan Lucky 12/39

8/25 Polaroid 9/23.5
8/25 All Saints 4/12
8/25 Birth of the Dragon 2.5/5.5
8/25 Crown Heights n/a
8/25 Tulip Fever n/a



The final weekend of August — and penultimate frame of Summer 2017 — is currently slated to see five wide releases hit the market. Our initial analysis and forecast:

PROS:

All Saints (Sony/Columbia) marks the latest faith-based film to aim for pre-Labor Day success, a strategy employed very successfully with 2015’s War Room.
Birth of the Dragon (BH Tilt) could appeal to fans of Bruce Lee as it traces the young martial artist’s early days.
Polaroid (TWC / Dimension) boasts a concept similar to that of The Ring and other horror entries. Its best potential will be among teenagers.

CONS:

All Saints isn’t generating the kind of social media engagement as the more successful faith-based films have in recent years.
Birth of the Dragon‘s distributor has a limited box office history, which indicates some challenges ahead with wide marketing reach.
Polaroid seems to revisit a horror plot device that fans of the genre are burned out on (see the performance of Rings earlier this year). Landing in between Annabelle: Creation and September’s It won’t help, either.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Buscemi » July 1st, 2017, 8:03 pm

All Saints isn't a Kendrick Brothers film or one with a decent-sized budget like Risen and Miracles from Heaven. That alone tells you that it won't do well compared to some of Sony's other religious entries.

I expect Tulip Fever to get pushed again, especially since it looks like Polaroid will make its date (a trailer just came out a few days back).

I'd be surprised if Birth of the Dragon or Crown Heights ended up opening wide. Blumhouse is phasing out distribution (even though their last three films performed decently) and neither Sleight nor Lowriders hit the 600 mark while IFC almost never goes wide on titles (though Amazon is handling the prints and advertising cost). Of course, Amazon has also announced plans to expand Landline wide on August 4th (from Magnolia, a company that's never released a film wide) so who knows what's going on with Crown Heights?
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » July 14th, 2017, 9:05 pm

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


7/21 Dunkirk 55/220
7/21 Girls Trip 20/70
7/21 Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets 18.5/49

7/28 The Emoji Movie 29/102
7/28 Atomic Blonde 27.5/82.5

8/4 The Dark Tower 42/107
8/4 Detroit n/a
8/4 Kidnap 5/12
8/4 An Inconvenient Sequel n/a

8/11 Annabelle: Creation 27/61
8/11 The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature 12/40
8/11 The Glass Castle 3.5/10.5

8/18 The Hitman's Bodyguard 19/57
8/18 Logan Lucky 12/39

8/25 Polaroid 9/23.5
8/25 All Saints 4/12
8/25 Birth of the Dragon 2.5/5.5
8/25 Crown Heights n/a
8/25 Tulip Fever n/a

8/30 Leap! 4.5/15.8
9/1 Renegades 4/9.5
9/1 Unlocked n/a

9/8 It 40/100
9/8 Home Again 12/45



It
(Warner Bros. / New Line)


PROS:

Legions of Stephen King fans have awaited a modern take on the property, one of the famed author’s most popular works.

Social media around the first trailer’s release was ecstatic, delivering a very impressive number of views across multiple platforms.

The film’s official Facebook page is already trending ahead the pace of 2014’s Annabelle.

The lack of breakouts in the horror genre so far in 2017 has left the target audience hungry for scares. Combined with the industry’s increased adoption of utilizing the year-round calendar for high profile films, this could be a standout September performer along the lines of Insidious: Chapter 2.

CONS:

Opening one week into the typically slow month of September will always be a slight concern as audiences come down from the summer movie rush (then again, they may ready to head back after what looks to be a weak August).

Social media tracking will naturally be quite challenging given the film’s generic title. As such, Twitter trends will be intriguing to watch.



Home Again
(Open Road Films)


PROS:

The combination of Reese Witherspoon and writer/director Hallie Meyers-Shyer (daughter of Nancy Meyers) could turn into this an appealing rom-com for women.

With a number of male-leaning films slated for late August and September, there’s little in the way of direct competition for the target audience.

CONS:

Although her mother’s influence could be very helpful among fans of It’s Complicated, The Intern, and The Holiday, Meyers-Shyer’s pull as a filmmaker is untested since this is her debut as both a writer and director.

We expect a somewhat back-loaded run since It is likely to attract a large share of date night and female audiences itself on the same opening weekend.



Other news:

Dunkirk‘s social media activity continues to impress in a huge way ahead of next week’s opening. Although there are several caveats to this comparison, the film’s Twitter activity is significantly ahead of the pace of films like Gravity, The Martian, Mad Max: Fury Road, and American Sniper.

Girls Trip continues to trend upward as an early wave of positive reviews back up the comedy’s increasingly healthy social media footprint.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Buscemi » July 14th, 2017, 10:21 pm

I saw the trailer for Home Again with Baby Driver and it's not going to do a thing. Open Road's been looking for a buyer, Reese Witherspoon fell off the A-list with Hot Pursuit, and the film has "vanity project" written all over it (had the director not been Nancy Meyers' daughter, no way it would have gotten made). And how far has Michael Sheen fallen that he agreed to make this?

It's movies like that which killed the romantic comedy in the first place. And things like The Big Sick won't bring it back unless they can make them less cliche and more realistic. More Annie Halls, less The Fault in Our Stars.

I also saw the trailer for It with Baby Driver and that should do well. Not well enough to justify the YouTube view counts but strong for an R-rated film that will likely be over two and a half hours (still wish this was a four hour film split into two parts).
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby W » July 15th, 2017, 12:48 am

I haven't seen The Big Sick yet, but considering it's based on the two main characters' real life relationship, how can it not be "realistic?"

EDIT: I thought it starred Emily Gordon as well. She co-wrote it.
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