Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Discuss weekly box office numbers, PTA numbers, and date changes.

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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Time to update this, I think.


Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


4/8 The Boss 17.5/60
4/8 Hardcore Henry 10.5/30

4/15 The Jungle Book 62/190
4/15 Barbershop: The Next Cut 17/42
4/15 Criminal 11/33

4/22 The Huntsman: Winter's War 30/75

4/29 Keanu 20/50
4/29 Mother's Day 13/45
4/29 Ratchet & Clank 7/5/19

5/6 Captain America: Civil War 167/435

5/13 Money Monster 11/32
5/13 The Darkness 6/13

5/20 Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising 54/145
5/20 The Angry Birds Movie 43/140
5/20 The Nice Guys 12/37

5/27 X-Men: Apocalypse 124/260 (4-day OW)
5/27 Alice Through the Looking Glass 74/180 (4-day OW)
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

4/22 The Huntsman: Winter's War 28/68

4/29 Keanu 20/50
4/29 Mother's Day 13/45
4/29 Ratchet & Clank 7.5/19

5/6 Captain America: Civil War 182/490

5/13 Money Monster 11/32
5/13 The Darkness 6/13

5/20 Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising 48/125
5/20 The Angry Birds Movie 43/140
5/20 The Nice Guys 15/55

5/27 X-Men: Apocalypse 120/250 (4-day OW)
5/27 Alice Through the Looking Glass 70/170 (4-day OW)

6/3 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows 55/150
6/3 Me Before You 15/45
6/3 Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping 11/28
6/3 The Bye Bye Man 7/17

6/10 The Conjuring 2 45/105
6/10 Warcraft 35/78
6/10 Now You See Me 2 23/65




The Conjuring 2 (Warner Bros. / New Line)

PROS:

– 2013’s The Conjuring was a surprise hit with a $41.9 million debut and final domestic gross of $137.4 million. The film held up especially well at the box office for a horror film.

– Stars Vera Farmiga and Patrick Wilson and director James Wan are all returning for The Conjuring 2.

– The strong performances of both 2013’s Insidious Chapter 2 and 2014’s Annabelle after the release of The Conjuring, are a good sign for The Conjuring 2, especially when it comes to opening weekend.

– We haven’t really seen a horror film truly break out since Annabelle did so. This should help further strengthen demand for The Conjuring 2 with horror fans.

CONS:

– While recent Twitter activity for The Conjuring 2 has been solid, it hasn’t been exceptional either.

– There is the possibility for at least some sequel fatigue with the film, especially since there was a catching lightning in a bottle aspect to the first film’s performance.

The Conjuring 2 will be opening in a very crowded marketplace. In addition to competition from Warcraft and Now You See Me 2, holdovers Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows, X-Men: Apocalypse and Alice Through the Looking Glass are likely to still have a presence at the box office that weekend.


Warcraft (Universal)

PROS:

– The Warcraft video game series the film is based on provides a potential built-in audience for the film, especially on opening weekend.

– Director Duncan Jones has built up a fan-base with 2009’s Moon and 2011’s Source Code. Jones’ involvement with Warcraft should help build further anticipation for the film.

– In comparison to The Conjuring 2 and Now You See Me 2, Warcraft will have the added advantage of higher priced 3D and IMAX admissions.

CONS:

Warcraft has been performing modestly on Twitter as of late and its recent tweet levels are running significantly below those of both The Conjuring 2 and Now You See Me 2.

Warcraft could be arriving a few years too late. In addition to the film being in development for a very long time, the Warcraft video game series isn’t as popular as it once was.

– The competition the film will face from The Conjuring 2, Now You See Me 2 and the weekend’s major holdovers.



Now You See Me 2 (Lionsgate / Summit)

PROS:

– Much like The Conjuring, Now You See Me was a surprise hit back in the summer of 2013. The film opened with $29.4 million and went on to gross $117.7 million thanks to terrific holding power.

– In addition to most of the original film’s cast returning, Daniel Radcliffe and Lizzy Caplan have joined the cast of Now You See Me 2.

– Recent Twitter activity levels for Now You See Me 2 have been stronger than those of Warcraft.

CONS:

– While Now You See Me pulled off a surprise victory over After Earth back in 2013, it will be tougher for Now You See Me 2 to do the same given that it will be opening against two high-profile films this time around.

– As could be the case with The Conjuring 2, sequel fatigue could come into play for Now You See Me 2, perhaps more so in its case.

– Lionsgate has had a lackluster start to 2016. Coming on the heels of Gods of Egypt and The Divergent Series: Allegiant; Now You See Me 2 could represent another underperformer for the distributor.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Chienfantome »

I quite agree with them this week.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

5/6 Captain America: Civil War 213/605

5/13 Money Monster 11/32
5/13 The Darkness 6/13

5/20 The Angry Birds Movie 43/140
5/20 Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising 41/110
5/20 The Nice Guys 16/60

5/27 X-Men: Apocalypse 115/240 (4-day OW)
5/27 Alice Through the Looking Glass 70/170 (4-day OW)

6/3 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows 53/145
6/3 Me Before You 15/45
6/3 Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping 10/25

6/10 The Conjuring 2 45/105
6/10 Warcraft 35/78
6/10 Now You See Me 2 23/65

6/17 Finding Dory 108/390
6/17 Central Intelligence 52/155

6/24 Independence Day: Resurgence 68/175
6/24 Free State of Jones 11.5/43



Finding Dory (Disney)

PROS:

– 2003’s Finding Nemo is one of Pixar’s most beloved films and one of its strongest box office performers. Without adjusting for ticket price inflation, Finding Nemo opened with $70.3 million and went on to gross $339.7 million in its original run. With the addition of a theatrical re-issue in 2012, Finding Nemo has grossed $380.8 million in its lifetime domestically.

– While being a sequel is likely to inflate its online activity, Finding Dory has been performing especially strong on Twitter for a family film this far away from release.

– Disney and Pixar have had great success in the recent past with long awaited sequels. 2010’s Toy Story 3 opened with $110.3 million and went on to gross $415.0 million domestically, while 2013’s Monsters University opened with $82.4 million and finished its domestic run with $268.5 million.

Finding Dory was recently voted as the most anticipated family film of the summer in Fandango’s annual Most Anticipated Summer Movies Survey.

– Disney has been on an absolute roll as of late with the breakout performances of Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Zootopia and The Jungle Book. The studio’s current hot streak is expected to continue into the summer with Captain America: Civil War and Finding Dory.

CONS:

– Holding power for Finding Dory could be affected a bit by Universal’s highly anticipated The Secret Life of Pets, which opens just three weeks later on July 8.

– While it likely isn’t a reflection of how future Pixar films will perform at the box office, Pixar is coming off its lowest grossing film ever in The Good Dinosaur, which finished its domestic run with just $123.1 million.

Finding Dory will represent the third Pixar release to enter the marketplace in a year’s time (joining The Good Dinosaur and Inside Out). This could diminish overall demand slightly for Finding Dory; as could the recent break-out performances of Zootopia and The Jungle Book with family audiences.


Central Intelligence (Warner Bros. / New Line)

PROS:

– The combination of Dwayne Johnson and Kevin Hart provides a high amount of star power and is likely to go over very well with moviegoers.

– Warner Bros. and Johnson saw San Andreas exceed expectations in a big way last summer with a debut of $54.6 million and a final domestic gross of $155.2 million.

Central Intelligence should benefit from being a non-sequel in a summer full of sequels.

Central Intelligence was recently voted as the second most anticipated comedy of the summer in Fandango’s annual Most Anticipated Summer Movies Survey.

CONS:

Central Intelligence has been performing softly on Twitter thus far, though it should be noted that San Andreas generated very modest online activity leading up to its release last year.

– Hart’s most recent film, this year’s Ride Along 2, performed below expectations with a $35.2 million three-day start and a final domestic gross of $90.9 million. There is also a risk of Central Intelligence coming across as too similar to the Ride Along films to stand out.

– In its second weekend of release Central Intelligence will be facing direct competition from Fox’s Independence Day: Resurgence.




Independence Day: Resurgence (Fox)

PROS:

– 1996’s Independence Day was one of the biggest films of the 1990s. The film grossed $306.2 million domestically, which adjusts to $594.3 million when taking into account 20 years of ticket price inflation.

– Somewhat surprisingly, Independence Day: Resurgence was recently voted as the second most anticipated action film of the summer in Fandango’s annual Most Anticipated Summer Movies Survey (ahead of both X-Men: Apocalypse and Suicide Squad).

– Jeff Goldblum and Bill Pullman are returning for the sequel, though Will Smith not being involved is sure to significantly limit the film’s potential.

Independence Day: Resurgence could receive boosts from 1990s nostalgia and from opening the weekend before Independence Day weekend.

CONS:

– Twitter activity for Independence Day: Resurgence has been underwhelming thus far and suggests that the film is unlikely to experience a break-out performance.

– While Will Smith isn’t the box office draw he used to be, the mentioned lack of Smith is sure the limit the prospects of Independence Day: Resurgence.

Independence Day: Resurgence will face direct competition from Warner’s Central Intelligence in late June and from Disney’s The BFG, Warner’s The Legend of Tarzan and Universal’s The Purge: Election Year in early July.


Free State of Jones (STX Entertainment)

PROS:

– Matthew McConaughey gives Free State of Jones some star power, while the involvement of director/writer Gary Ross should help increase interest in the film as well.

Free State of Jones could benefit from serving as an alternative choice to the summer’s sequels and action fare.

– Footage of the film went over well recently at CinemaCon. If critical reviews end up being strong, that would help out the film’s potential, especially beyond opening weekend.

CONS:

Free State of Jones has performed very softly on Twitter thus far, especially for a film with a very specific title.

– While STX Entertainment has had two very solid performers thus far in last year’s The Gift and this year’s The Boy, the young distributor has yet to have a break-out opening weekend performance.

Free State of Jones is the type of film that might be better suited for a release in the fall.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

5/20 The Angry Birds Movie 43/140
5/20 Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising 41/110
5/20 The Nice Guys 16/60

5/27 X-Men: Apocalypse 115/240 (4-day OW)
5/27 Alice Through the Looking Glass 70/170 (4-day OW)

6/3 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows 53/145
6/3 Me Before You 15/45
6/3 Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping 10/25

6/10 The Conjuring 2 45/105
6/10 Warcraft 35/78
6/10 Now You See Me 2 23/65

6/17 Finding Dory 108/390
6/17 Central Intelligence 52/155

6/24 Independence Day: Resurgence 68/175
6/24 Free State of Jones 11.5/43

6/29 The Shallows 11.2/28
7/1 The BFG 31/85
7/1 The Legend of Tarzan 23.5/50
7/1 The Purge: Election Year 21/42



The BFG (Disney / DreamWorks)

PROS:

– The BFG is adapted from Roald Dahl’s children’s book of the same name and should have a built-in audience as a result.

– While Steven Spielberg’s drawing power as a director has diminished over time, his presence obviously brings added attention to The BFG.

– Disney has had a tremendous start to 2016 and the studio is widely expected to see its winning streak continue into the summer. The studio’s continued strength could help boost the performance of The BFG.

CONS:

– The BFG will be opening in a very crowded marketplace and will have a tough task in opening between fellow Disney release Finding Dory and Universal’s The Secret Life of Pets.

– The BFG has been performing modestly on Twitter thus far.


The Legend of Tarzan (Warner Bros.)

PROS:

– Alexander Skarsgård, Margot Robbie, Samuel L. Jackson & Christoph Waltz bring a level of star power to The Legend of Tarzan.

– The Legend of Tarzan will hope to appeal to the same audiences that drove 2011’s Rise of the Planet of the Apes and 2014’s Dawn of the Planet of the Apes.

CONS:

– The Legend of Tarzan will face direct competition from Independence Day: Resurgence over Independence Day weekend.

– The Legend of Tarzan has been performing softly on Twitter.

– Similar to Warner’s Pan last year, re-presenting Tarzan may not be enough to exc.


The Purge: Election Year (Universal)

PROS:

– 2013’s The Purge and 2014’s The Purge: Anarchy were both successful at the box office with respective total domestic grosses of $64.5 million and $72.0 million.

– The Purge: Election Year is hoping to get a boost from its election theme in an election year and from opening over Independence Day weekend.

CONS:

– There is the potential for sequel fatigue with The Purge: Election Year, as a third film could be one film too many for this franchise.

– The film has been performing very softly on Twitter. On top of that, a sizable percentage of the film’s early Twitter activity has been negative in tone.

– The Purge: Election Year will face very direct competition from both Independence Day: Resurgence and Sony’s The Shallows.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by undeadmonkey »

I'm really looking forward to a Spielberg summer movie

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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

5/27 X-Men: Apocalypse 95/190 (4-day OW)
5/27 Alice Through the Looking Glass 70/170 (4-day OW)

6/3 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows 53/145
6/3 Me Before You 15/45
6/3 Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping 10/25

6/10 The Conjuring 2 45/105
6/10 Warcraft 35/78
6/10 Now You See Me 2 23/65

6/17 Finding Dory 108/390
6/17 Central Intelligence 52/155

6/24 Independence Day: Resurgence 68/175
6/24 Free State of Jones 11.5/43

6/29 The Shallows 11.2/28
7/1 The BFG 31/85
7/1 The Legend of Tarzan 23.5/50
7/1 The Purge: Election Year 21/42

7/8 The Secret Life of Pets 66/265
7/8 Mike & Dave Need Wedding Dates 15/40



The Secret Life of Pets (Universal)

PROS:

– Universal is wisely using its credentials as the makers of Minions and Despicable Me to bolster its appeal.

– Very strong social media presence, especially on Facebook where it has consistently been one of the, if not the, brightest animated films of the year.

– Universal is in need of a big hit to boost its 2016 numbers and will be gunning for top dollar here with an extensive advertising campaign no doubt.

– With Zootopia performing exceptionally well earlier this year based on an original animal-animated feature film for Disney, Universal is hoping that Pets will be able to tap into the same audience and deliver.

CONS:

– Competition will be very strong for the family demographic’s dollars for Pets as it will be coming on the heels of The BFG the week before and Finding Dory three weekends before.

– Its target demographic has delivered some of the biggest hits of the year and with at least four more event films hitting the same audience between now and July 8th some fatigue might be a factor and could potentially lead to under-performance.


Mike & Dave Need Wedding Dates (Fox)

PROS:

– R-Rated wedding-themed comedies have a long history of being one of the most lucrative laugher sub-genres.

– Both Anna Kendrick and Zac Efron are very recognizable leads with the film’s target audience of teens and young adults.

CONS:

– Social media numbers have been very weak across both Facebook and Twitter which is an especially worrying sign considering its trying to appeal to young adult movie-goers primarily.

– Zac Efron has not headlined a comedy to open with more than $13 million since 2009’s 17 Again (discounting Neighbors thanks to the big pull that is Seth Rogen).
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

6/10 The Conjuring 2 38/95
6/10 Now You See Me 2 27/75
6/10 Warcraft 22/45

6/17 Finding Dory 133/449
6/17 Central Intelligence 38/123

6/24 Independence Day: Resurgence 47/125
6/24 Free State of Jones 14/50

6/29 The Shallows 11.2/28
7/1 The BFG 31/85
7/1 The Legend of Tarzan 23.5/50
7/1 The Purge: Election Year 21/42

7/8 The Secret Life of Pets 66/265
7/8 Mike & Dave Need Wedding Dates 15/40

7/13 The Infiltrator 6/20
7/15 Ghostbusters 63/178

7/22 Star Trek Beyond 56/159
7/22 Ice Age: Collision Course 39/133
7/22 Lights Out 10/25

7/27 Nerve 7.5/20
7/29 Jason Bourne 65/195
7/29 Bad Moms 21/70



Jason Bourne (Universal)

PROS:

– The Jason Bourne franchise has grossed over $1 billion worldwide, with the last Matt Damon/Paul Greengrass entry in 2007, The Bourne Ultimatum, opening to almost $70 million and making $227 million domestically.

– Bourne‘s brand of espionage mixed with very gritty action was a model the James Bond franchise followed in recent years to huge success.

– The Bourne Legacy spin-off starring Jeremy Renner managed to open just shy of $40 million in 2012 despite not actually featuring the ever-popular Jason Bourne as a character.

– The franchise has a history of doing well with older movie-goers, with a male skew. This demographic is underrepresented by social media which leads to lower numbers than normal. When compared with The Bourne Legacy it has more than double the tweets about its corresponding trailers.

– Matt Damon is coming off an Oscar nomination and the highest grossing worldwide film of his career in The Martian and has become one of the most bankable Hollywood action stars. This is ironic since one of the knocks against his first turn as Jason Bourne back in 2002 was that he had never been the lead in an action movie.

CONS:

– It has been a summer filled with sequels which the general audience appears to be growing tired of, this backlash could negatively affect its potential.

– Its been a long time since the last Damon/Greengrass film (2007) and perhaps the momentum they built in the original trilogy will be difficult to tap into again.


Bad Moms (STX Entertainment)

PROS:

– Early social media buzz has been strong for its trailers, especially its red band trailer.

– Female skewing R-rated comedies have a strong track record of performing well in Summer, with last year’s Trainwreck, 2010’s Bad Teacher, 2011’s Bridesmaids, 2012’s Magic Mike, 2013’s The Heat and 2014’s Tammy all being big hits. Bad Moms is a strong contender to carry on the torch.

– The film has a very strong female cast of all ages which should help to appeal to a wide cross-section of women. Mila Kunis is also no stranger to the genre, having starred in three successful R-rated comedies over the years with Forgetting Sarah Marshall, Friends With Benefits and Ted.

CONS:

– STX Entertainment is a relatively new distributor who currently has a best opening of just $11.9 million (The Boy). This will be the first comedy it is distributing and its inexperience could potentially limit its opening potential.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Chienfantome »

Their prediction for Independence Day is ridiculous. $125M ? Come on.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

They're really low on a lot of things: Warcraft, ID42, Mike & Dave, Lights Out

Conversely, I think they're aiming too high on a few too: Ghostbusters, Finding Dory, Ice Age, Bourne
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Spectre »

Box Office's predictions have been absolutely horrendous for a while now. I used to use them when deciding my slates and playing FML but now I just completely ignore them. I find I can do a better job myself (which is a testament to their quality) :lol:

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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by transformers2 »

Pre-release tracking has really gone to hell over the past six months or so. I don't trust a thing that any of these so-called "inside" sites say anymore.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi »

Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates looks like a flop. None of the leads are box office draws (and the failure of Popstar showed us that you can't just cast someone from TV or indie films in a studio comedy and expect a hit) and the film itself just looks like it's trying too hard to sell Zac Efron as the King of the Bros again.

Meanwhile, I think Finding Dory will be the hit of the summer. Civil War underperformed and with Pixar returning to familiar territory, I feel audiences will embrace the fish that just kept swimming. $400 million is possible.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Chienfantome »

I do hope their are way too low on ID4, Warcraft and Lights Out as I have them all in my draft slate. But I definitely think they are. Even if it fails there's no way Warcraft is below $50M. Heck, Prince of Persia managed $95M.
And it seems like they don't see Lights Out coming, but the buzz is growing around it.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Spectre »

Chienfantome wrote:I do hope their are way too low on ID4, Warcraft and Lights Out as I have them all in my draft slate. But I definitely think they are. Even if it fails there's no way Warcraft is below $50M. Heck, Prince of Persia managed $95M.
And it seems like they don't see Lights Out coming, but the buzz is growing around it.
Just for context's sake, look at their predictions over the past month or so... and they update their numbers the week before release too (actuals in parenthesis):

X-Men: $95M 4-day - ($80M) -16%
Alice: $70M 4-day - ($33M) -53%
TMNT: $53M OW - ($35M) -40%
MBY: $15M OW - ($19M) +27%
Popstar: $10M OW - ($5M) -50%
Angry Birds: $43M OW - ($38M) -12%
Neighbors 2: $41M OW - ($22M) -46%
Nice Guys: $16M OW - ($11M) -31%
Money Monster: $11M OW - ($15M) +36%
CACW: $213 OW - ($180M) -15.5%

If you notice, there isn't a prediction there within even 10% of being right... but of the 10 predictions there, there are two that are 50% off and SEVEN that are 25% off. That's insanely bad. We could do better as a forum without even trying. So yeah... I wouldn't be worried about their numbers in the least. ;)

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