Future Tracking From Exhibitors

[Shrykespeare]

Latest numbers from BoxOffice.com:

8/27 The November Man 9/22 (4-day)
8/29 As Above, So Below 13/27 (4-day) (up from 12/24)

9/12 Dolphin Tale 2 18/62
9/12 No Good Deed 10/23

9/19 The Maze Runner 21/52
9/19 A Walk Among the Tombstones 17/49
9/19 This is Where I Leave You 13/39
9/19 Tusk 4/8

9/26 The Equalizer 35/110
9/26 The Boxtrolls 14/59

10/3 Gone Girl 24/90
10/3 Annabelle 18/41

10/10 The Judge 22/83
10/10 Alexander and the... 21/74
10/10 Addicted 11/24

10/17 Fury 25/93
10/17 Book of Life 14/42
10/17 The Best of Me 11/34
10/17 Dracula Untold 8/19


Fury
(Sony)

PROS:

- Brad Pitt commands plenty of publicity by just walking out his front door. The media will be eager to cover this title as much as they can.
- The WWII genre has been good to Pitt: Inglourious Basterds was a $318 million global hit.
- This one has "Oscar bait" written all over it. We'll be very surprised if the words "possible Best Picture nominee" aren't mentioned in a ton of reviews.
- Online reactions to the first trailer have been mostly positive.

CONS:

- If The Judge and Gone Girl end up overperforming, that could steal attention away from Fury.
- We doubt the inclusion of Logan Lerman (The Perks of Being a Wallflower) will bring in younger crowds.
- A lot of moviegoers were disappointed by Monuments Men earlier this year and that could leave them reluctant to embrace another WWII flick.

[Buscemi]

I still think Fury would do better in November. In October, it simply faces too much competition.

[numbersix]

Think they're underestimating Book of Life. That film could do a lot better. Boxtrolls has a ceiling due to the animation style. Alexander and the... is competition, but it's hard to see that really fare well. This is the only animation until Big Hero 6 in Nov, and kids may be starved for a "proper" cartoon. I could see it earning double what is predicted here.

Also, I think they're way too high on all the Oct 10 films. Gone Girl with eat up that adult audience, so The Judge could underperform (and Downey's non Iron Man films do tend to disappoint), I've doubts about Alexander, and Addicted will struggle to make 10m cume.

[Buscemi]

The Book of Life looks really low-budget and will have a very short shelf life due to Dia de los Muertos (which occurs just 16 days later). I'd be a lot higher on it had Blue Sky produced it rather than a third party.

Also, can you name a children's film (other than Puss in Boots and The Nightmare Before Christmas) that opened in late October and did well?

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Book of Life looks nice and colorful, and there is no competition, but is a movie centered around Day of the Dead holiday relatable? It'll do more than $40M just from the Hispanic market alone - my rough guess is around 21/75.

I too think Fury would've done better in November - it can coexist with Mockingjay, and the rest of November is wide open for a drama. Although I can understand the studio wanting to compete with 2nd weekend of The Judge rather than than that of Interstellar.

What they're really underestimating is Dracula Untold. It doesn't look fantastic, but the take on the most famous vampire at least looks different. It ain't gonna break records, but 18/50 isn't out of the question.

[Buscemi]

I don't know, Banks. Instructions Not Included did gross $45 million but I think that had a lot to do with having an easy-to-sell plotline and positive word-of-mouth (Lionsgate's other titles from the Pantelion label failed to hit even $10 million).

Meanwhile, I don't think Book of Life is that easy to sell to non-Hispanic audiences. And I don't see Guillermo del Toro's name selling it either (despite Mama doing well with del Toro's name on it). Strangely, the one film that I think of with Book of Life is Legends of Oz, with its cheap-looking animation and it trying to sell it around names rather than quality. Of course, Book of Life has a major studio attached it (though of course, that didn't help How to Train Your Dragon 2 when it underperformed despite excellent word).

[Spectre]

Latest numbers from BoxOffice.com:

10/3 Gone Girl 24/90
10/3 Annabelle 18/41

They also added Left Behind on 10/3 as a 13/35 prediction (my FY BO draft slate certainly hopes so).

[Buscemi]

I don't think Left Behind will even make $10 million. The film is using a rent-a-distributor method (Freestyle will be distributing for E1) and unlike God's Not Dead, awareness among the target audience seems to be limited (besides, I expect religious audiences to be flocking to The Song one week earlier due to having a PG rating and being slotted in that favorable last week of September spot that religious films have thrived at*).

* - The Kendrick Brothers opened their three movies at this spot in 2006, 2008 and 2011 and all did well. In addition, its distributor (Samuel Goldwyn) also released two of those.

[numbersix]

The Book of Life looks really low-budget and will have a very short shelf life due to Dia de los Muertos (which occurs just 16 days later). I'd be a lot higher on it had Blue Sky produced it rather than a third party.

Also, can you name a children's film (other than Puss in Boots and The Nightmare Before Christmas) that opened in late October and did well?

I don't think kids are as discerning about animation quality as we are, so I don't see that as a factor. As long as its sold well, with the usual Macdonalds, etc, tie-ins, then it should be fine. The short shelf life may be a problem (Hotel Transylvania did start to experience heavier drops after Halloween), although kids films tend to have legs even if they underperform on opening weekend.

As for the release date, well surely this year (with the top 3 films being released in Feb, April, and August) has proved that past trends mean little, so it's hard to be convinced of that argument. Besides, Hotel Transylvania and the Cloudy films were all released at the end of Sept and performed well, so what's a week or two difference? This is the only proper animated film between Planes and Big Hero 6 and it has the potential to excel.

[JohnErle]

Apparently Variety has been tracking which movies are doing the biggest ad blitzes on American TV and posting the top 5 on a weekly basis for a while now. I can't recall anyone mentioning this, and I don't know if the numbers even mean anything, but it's another piece of information to consider. Most interesting to me is that the movie which had the biggest ad spend for the past two weeks is not one I would have expected.

http://variety.com/2014/film/news/the-m ... 201302147/

[Chienfantome]

Interesting indeed. And i wouldn't have thought either this would be this film. But at the same time, it probably needs it more than the others.

[Shrykespeare]

Latest numbers from BoxOffice.com:

9/12 Dolphin Tale 2 15/54 (down from 18/62)
9/12 No Good Deed 17/40 (up from 10/23)

9/19 The Maze Runner 28/73 (up from 21/52)
9/19 A Walk Among the Tombstones 18/51 (up from 17/49)
9/19 This is Where I Leave You 13/39
9/19 Tusk 4/8

9/26 The Equalizer 35/110
9/26 The Boxtrolls 14/59

10/3 Gone Girl 25/90
10/3 Annabelle 18/41 (up from 18/41)
10/3 Left Behind 13/35

10/10 The Judge 22/83
10/10 Alexander and the... 21/74
10/10 Dracula Untold 8/19
(10/10 Addicted 11/24)

10/17 Fury 25/93
10/17 Book of Life 14/42
10/17 The Best of Me 11/34

10/24 Ouija 24/53

10/31 Nightcrawler 6.5/18




Jake Gyllenhaal makes another play at Oscar consideration in Nightcrawler, an intense look at a creepy video reporter who will do anything to get a story. Will mainstream audiences embrace a dark look at the media or is this title doomed to be overshadowed by other Oscar contenders?

Nightcrawler
(Open Road)

PROS:

- There have been some very enthusiastic reviews out of the Toronto International Film Festival.
- Open Road successfully turned another Gyllenhaal vehicle--End of Watch--into a solid mid-level hit.
- The subject matter of voyeurism in the media is certainly more relevant than ever following the leaked photos of major starlets.
- The film's atmospheric trailer has managed to build healthy online buzz.

CONS:

- Nightcrawler also has its share of detractors out of TIFF--Variety and The Hollywood Report, most notably.
- Opening one week before Interstellar and Big Hero 6 will be a very difficult task.
- If any October Oscar-bait title overperforms it could eat into Nightcrawler's potential audience.

[Shrykespeare]

Latest numbers from BoxOffice.com:

9/19 The Maze Runner 30/73 (up from 28/73)
9/19 A Walk Among the Tombstones 14/34 (down from 18/51)
9/19 This is Where I Leave You 12/34 (down from 13/39)
9/19 Tusk 3.2/7 (down from 4/8)

9/26 The Equalizer 35/110
9/26 The Boxtrolls 14/59

10/3 Gone Girl 25/90
10/3 Annabelle 20/45
10/3 Left Behind 13/35

10/10 The Judge 22/83
10/10 Alexander and the... 21/74
10/10 Dracula Untold 8/19
10/10 Addicted 11/24

10/17 Fury 25/93
10/17 Book of Life 14/42
10/17 The Best of Me 11/34

10/24 Ouija 24/53

10/31 Nightcrawler 6.5/18

11/7 Interstellar 79/332
11/7 Big Hero 47/183


Following the huge success of Inception and The Dark Knight Rises, director Christopher Nolan ventures into space with Interstellar. Will the director's winning streak continue or will a crowded holiday slate hinder his latest effort?

Insterstellar
(Warner Bros.)

PROS:

- Christopher Nolan has earned tons of mainstream trust over the last 10 years or so. Few directors working today command the respect that he does.
- Matthew McConaughey is on fire these days following his Oscar win for Dallas Buyers Club and his spot-on turn in HBO's True Detective.
- Never underestimate the drawing power of a sci-fi film that defies genre conventions. For proof, look no further than 2013's Gravity.
- The film's supporting cast is very strong. Having Anne Hathaway and Jessica Chastain in the mix will help bring in key female demos.
- Interstellar looks like it could be Nolan's first attempt at a tear-jerker. If that's the case, it could improve the film's staying power.
- Nolan's passion for secrecy means that moviegoers will be truly surprised when they watch it for the first time.

CONS:

- Opening the same weekend as Big Hero 6 will mean plenty of competition for family crowds.
- An over-crowded slate in late November/December could slow Interstellar down.

[Spectre]

I'd put money on it that they revise that Big Hero 6 number upward at least once before release. Interstellar is super hard to project so I can't really argue (even though that number feels high to me). Not sure why the have The Maze Runner at a 30 OW given that they're already forecasting it at 37M in a different article.

[Chienfantome]

They are really high on Interstellar. If the films breaks out it could go that high,but that would make it a much bigger earner than Inception was. BUt I was dubious about Gravity too, so...