Future Tracking From Exhibitors

[Shrykespeare]

Latest numbers from BoxOffice.com:

7/18 Sex Tape 26/90 (down from 26/92)
7/18 Planes: Fire and Rescue 20/75 (up from 20/74)
7/18 The Purge: Anarchy 29/58 (up from 24/48)

7/25 Lucy 30/95
7/25 Hercules 21/52
7/25 And So It Goes 5/17
7/25 The Fluffy Movie 4/10

8/1 Guardians of the Galaxy 68/187
8/1 Get On Up 22/88

8/8 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 39/102
8/8 The Hundred-Foot Journey 15/59
8/8 Into the Storm 11/32
8/8 Step Up All In 10/28

8/13 Let's Be Cops 17/65
8/15 The Expendables 3 25/72
8/15 The Giver 12/33

8/22 Sin City: A Dame to Kill For 20/47
8/22 When the Game Stands Tall 14/51
8/22 If I Stay 13/34

8/27 The November Man 9/22 (4-day)
8/29 Jessabelle 16.5/36 (4-day)
8/29 As Above, So Below 12/24 (4-day)

9/5 The Green Inferno 7/15


The Green Inferno
(Open Road)

PROS:

- The film's first trailer doesn't give away too much. It teases in the best way possible.
- Horror buffs may appreciate an original entry into the genre that isn't a found-footage flick.

CONS:

- There are plenty of horror flicks opening in July and August, which means there may not be much of an audience left by the time Green Inferno opens.
- The cast is made up of unknown actors.
- The first full weekend in September is traditionally a very slow frame.

[silversurfer19]

Latest numbers from BoxOffice.com:

7/18 Planes: Fire and Rescue 20/75 (up from 20/74)

Hmm, I wonder what has shifted so significantly in the tracking world for BO to upgrade it's projections on this one...

[BrocksterDuex]

Holy Hell you guys...I've started to finally see trailers for TMNT...wow, this looks so fucking terrible. In every sense of the word, this movie looks like garbage...the turtles look weird, the jokes are so corny, Megan Fox is in it...how can early tracking have this pegged over 100M? What am I missing?

[Chienfantome]

Whatever you're missing, I'm missing it too.

[Shrykespeare]

So am I. Which means it'll probably do $200M and become the next Alvin & the Chipmunks franchise. (tongue lodged firmly in cheek)

[Chienfantome]

Oh boy, that's what we're missing. I'm suddenly afraid.

[Wrestler]

Correct me if I'm wrong here but they say "- Horror buffs may appreciate an original entry into the genre that isn't a found-footage flick."
Could have sworn that green inferno is a remake of cannible holocaust. One of the most infamous horror films of all time. Making it not exactly an original entry into the genre.

[Shrykespeare]

Sorry, forgot to do this last week.


Latest numbers from BoxOffice.com:


8/8 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 39/102
8/8 The Hundred-Foot Journey 11/42 (down from 15/59)
8/8 Into the Storm 12/34 (up from 11/32)
8/8 Step Up All In 11/30 (up from 10/28)

8/13 Let's Be Cops 20/80
8/15 The Expendables 3 24/68 (down from 25/72)
8/15 The Giver 12/33

8/22 Sin City: A Dame to Kill For 20/47
8/22 When the Game Stands Tall 14/51
8/22 If I Stay 13/34

8/27 The November Man 9/22 (4-day)
8/29 As Above, So Below 13/27 (4-day) (up from 12/24)

9/5 The Green Inferno 7/15

9/12 Dolphin Tale 2 18/62
9/12 No Good Deed 10/23

9/19 The Maze Runner 21/52
9/19 A Walk Among the Tombstones 17/49
9/19 Tusk 4/8

9/26 The Equalizer 35/110
9/26 The Boxtrolls 14/59


A Walk Among The Tombstones
(Universal)

PROS:

- Liam Neeson is fresh off the success of Non-Stop. The actor's fanbase consistently shows up for his action roles.
- Prisoners, another dark and gritty cop drama, succeeded during this same frame last year.
- The film clearly has some horror elements, and that could help expand its audience.

CONS:

- September can often be a painfully slow month.
- Liam Neeson's action career has to lose momentum at some point. Could it be with this film?





The Equalizer
(Sony)

PROS:

- Few actors carry as much mainstream trust as Denzel Washington. The Oscar winner hasn't had a bomb in years.
- The notion of Washington teaming up again with Training Day director Antoine Fuqua will be very appealing to many moviegoers.
- Fuqua is on fire after the recent success of Olympus Has Fallen.
- The film's strong first trailer establishes the tone without giving too much of the story away.

CONS:

- Vigilante films are hit and miss.
- Opening one week after A Walk Among The Tombstones could hurt The Equalizer. Both films are aimed at key male demos.



The Boxtrolls
(Focus)

PROS:

- Laika Animation has found respectable success with past films such as Coraline, ParaNorman, and Tim Burton's Corpse Bride.
- The relative lack of kiddie fare after August could bring out families.

CONS:

- Stop-motion and non-CG animated flicks have a hard time breaking out due to younger audiences having grown used to CGI fare.
- With a busy August and holiday season surrounding it, the Fall release could mean families save money and stay home.

[Geezer]

As of right now, TMNT looks terrible and it'll be lucky to beat the animated one's total back in 2007.

You did mean on opening weekend, right?

[Shrykespeare]

Latest numbers from BoxOffice.com:

8/13 Let's Be Cops 23/100 (up from 20/80)
8/15 The Expendables 3 23/65 (down from 24/68)
8/15 The Giver 11/29 (down from 12/33)

8/22 Sin City: A Dame to Kill For 20/47
8/22 When the Game Stands Tall 14/51
8/22 If I Stay 13/34

8/27 The November Man 9/22 (4-day)
8/29 As Above, So Below 13/27 (4-day) (up from 12/24)

9/12 Dolphin Tale 2 18/62
9/12 No Good Deed 10/23

9/19 The Maze Runner 21/52
9/19 A Walk Among the Tombstones 17/49
9/19 This is Where I Leave You 13/39
9/19 Tusk 4/8

9/26 The Equalizer 35/110
9/26 The Boxtrolls 14/59

10/3 Gone Girl 24/90
10/3 Annabelle 18/41



Gone Girl

PROS:

- Following Benjamin Button, The Social Network and Dragon Tattoo, David Fincher has been in the middle of a box office and awards hot streak for seemingly years now, and early indicators are that will continue with this film.
- Ben Affleck himself is also benefiting from a career resurgence in the wake of Argo and The Town.
- Reactions to the trailer have been very encouraging.
- The general lack of strong options for adult audiences before the holidays should help out.

CONS:

- The darker tone of the film and its characters could limit breakout potential somewhat.
- As last year's Runner Runner somewhat showed, Affleck isn't a guaranteed draw each time out.
- Will The Equalizer cut into this film's box office potential by opening just one week earlier?


Annabelle

PROS:

- Spun off from last year's hit The Conjuring, horror fans are looking forward to this prequel.
- There haven't been many horror options this year in general, which could create some extra demand.
- The October release positions it well to benefit from Halloween crowds.

CONS:

- Lacking any major stars, the film's premise will be the main selling point.
- Would audiences rather simply see a direct sequel to The Conjuring? We're betting that's the case.
- While it can co-exist, competition enters the fray a few weeks later in the form of Ouija.

[Buscemi]

They are seriously underestimating Annabelle. Did they not remember how well The Conjuring, with a very similar pre-release outlook (such as no stars), did? Also, Annabelle is a prequel and does in fact have a connection to The Conjuring (the trailer even makes this clear).

My prediction: 40/85 and it blows Ouija out of the water.

[Chienfantome]

I think Gone Girl is gonna have a bigger opening than that too.

[Buscemi]

Gone Girl is probably more of a legs film, like the other Fincher films. Hardcore Fincher fans will be there opening weekend but I expect it to have small drops as more traditional filmgoers will come in later weeks.

[numbersix]

Agreed on Annabelle. The association with The Conjuring should give it a boost. I'm thinking a 20m OW with about a 55m cume. Ouija has the better opening date but looks like it's the kind of film that won't have legs.

The buzz over Gone Girl is strong, and if the critics like it I could see it opening to about 30m and hitting 90m or so, if not more.

[Spectre]

Agreed on Annabelle. The association with The Conjuring should give it a boost. I'm thinking a 20m OW with about a 55m cume. Ouija has the better opening date but looks like it's the kind of film that won't have legs.

The buzz over Gone Girl is strong, and if the critics like it I could see it opening to about 30m and hitting 90m or so, if not more.

I think Annabelle will be the better movie but Ouija's positioning will give it the juice to compete with it at the box office. Its legs will fall off after the October 31st weekend but it shouldn't need them given the 2 weekends of Halloween juice it'll have.

And I hope Gone Girl breaks 100M but it's hard to tell with Fincher because quality doesn't always equal huge dollars even though his films generally hold very well.