Future Tracking From Exhibitors

[Buscemi]

Fox distributes DreamWorks Animation titles, Disney distributes live-action DreamWorks titles.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I thought TFiOS might break $100M, mostly on book readers plus presumably good WOM.

This clip does not inspire confidence...



That guy's face has the highest punchibility factor I've ever seen in my life.

[Buscemi]

As I said, you need a big star to sell this one.

[Shrykespeare]

Latest numbers from BoxOffice.com:


4/25 The Other Woman 18/55 (up from 18/52)
4/25 The Quiet Ones 5.5/12 (down from 10/22)
4/25 Brick Mansions 6/13 (down from 8/18)

5/2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 112/265

5/9 Neighbors 34/126
5/9 Mom's Night Out 6/14
5/9 Legends of Oz: Dorothy's Return 4/11

5/16 Godzilla 75/235
5/16 Million Dollar Arm 15/60

5/23 X-Men: Days of Future Past 108/230 (4-day weekend) (up from 103/221)
5/23 Blended 24/56 (4-day weekend)

5/30 Maleficent 61/191
5/30 A Million Ways to Die in the West 27/73

6/6 Edge of Tomorrow 33/93
6/6 The Fault in Our Stars 29/88

6/13 How to Train Your Dragon 2 78/298
6/13 22 Jump Street 48/143


Fox and DreamWorks will team up yet again on How To Train Your Dragon 2, the highly-anticipated sequel to 2010's smash hit. This week we take a closer look at the commercial prospects for this promising title.


How To Train Your Dragon 2
(Fox/DreamWorks Animation)

PROS:

- This will be the first major release of the summer that is safe for families with young children. Disney's Maleficent will be too dark for kids under 10 years old.
- The first film was a massive word-of-mouth hit. It opened to $43.7 million domestically on its way to an impressive $217.6 million final tally.
- How To Train Your Dragon 3 has already been announced, so Fox/DreamWorks are clearly confident that the second film will keep the brand healthy.
- Facebook activity has been staggeringly good since the release of the first film. The official page had 107K likes on the day How To Train Your Dragon was released and now it's up to nearly 5.8 million.
- Unlike Summer 2013, this summer is not overcrowded with animated titles and that will work to How To Train Your Dragon 2's advantage.

CONS:

- Sometimes animated sequels stumble. Let's not forget about the weak performance of The Smurfs 2.



Channing Tatum and Jonah Hill join forces again for June's 22 Jump Street. Both stars have experienced massive success since the last film was released: Tatum in Magic Mike and Hill in This Is The End and The Wolf of Wall Street. Will their increased clout help 22 Jump Street pass its predecessor's impressive $138.4 million cume?

22 Jump Street
(Sony)

PROS:

- The first film showed amazing staying power at the box office: it opened to $36.3 million domestically and managed to multiply that nearly four times over by the end of its run.
- Tatum and Hill are on fire these days.
- Co-star Ice Cube is coming off the strong performance of Ride Along.

CONS:

- Being released after two other R-rated comedies--Neighbors and A Million Ways To Die In The West--won't be easy.
- If X-Men: Days of Future Past shows more staying power than expected it could eat into 22 Jump Street's tally.
- The first film is so beloved that many fans may have unrealistic expectations for the sequel.

[Buscemi]

I can't see either one passing their predecessors (why is it that everyone nowadays expects the sequel to outgross the first?). How to Train Your Dragon 2 looks ridiculously low-budget compared to the first (and Chris Sanders, the brainchild of the first installment, didn't return for this one) while 22 Jump Street simply feels like an unnecessary sequel (also, I expect Neighbors and A Million Ways to Die in the West to steal its thunder).

[W]

22JS is supposed to be an unnecessary sequel. Far as I've heard, it does for the sequel what it did to the cop/remake genres.

[JohnErle]

That guy's face has the highest punchibility factor I've ever seen in my life.

He's a teenager. You're supposed to want to punch him in the face. That's what teenagers are for.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

That 22 Jump Street prediction is ridiculously low. An anticipated sequel to a smash comedy hit? The Hangover was another beloved R comedy and its sequel almost doubled the opening weekend. It's legs were short because bad WOM caught up to it.

If 21 Jump St can open to $36M in MARCH on nothing but buzz, there's no reason 22 Jump St should open any lower than $60M. It'll be a repeat of last year's June opening with a kiddie sequel and an adult aimed film - Monsters U nabs $80M and WWZ gets $66M. The same thing will happen.

Neighbors will be a nice sized hit, but it's 6 weekends before 22 Jump St so it'll be mostly done, while A Million Ways is looking more and more like a huge disappointment. I'm changing my stance on that one, it'll be lucky to get to $70M total.

Unrelated, but how the hell is the prediction for Brick Mansions going down? I can't turn on the damn TV without seeing a commercial with Lil Jon screaming at me "TURN DOWN FOR WHAT!".

[Buscemi]

Brick Mansions looks like a straight-to-DVD movie. Also, parkour is almost a non-entity in the US (and the extreme sports craze died over a decade ago).

As for 22 Jump Street, the first one came out with almost no competition and a lot of marketing. This one has been rather quiet on the marketing side (and the trailers have nowhere near the buzz Neighbors and A Million Days to Die in the West had) and faces those two to boot (along with Think Like a Man Too and Tammy in future weeks). Also, Monsters University and World War Z were far more accessible movies than 22 Jump Street is (for one, they weren't R-rated movies with a single joke) and Channing Tatum doesn't have the Midas touch that he had in 2012 (White House Down ended his hot streak).

[numbersix]

That 22 Jump Street prediction is ridiculously low. An anticipated sequel to a smash comedy hit? The Hangover was another beloved R comedy and its sequel almost doubled the opening weekend. It's legs were short because bad WOM caught up to it.

If 21 Jump St can open to $36M in MARCH on nothing but buzz, there's no reason 22 Jump St should open any lower than $60M. It'll be a repeat of last year's June opening with a kiddie sequel and an adult aimed film - Monsters U nabs $80M and WWZ gets $66M. The same thing will happen.

Couldn't agree more. This will be a huge hit, even if it's not well received.

[Buscemi]

All-time, only four R-rated movies have opened to more than $60 million (The Matrix Reloaded, The Hangover Part II, The Passion of the Christ and 300). The two sequels in that list were follow-ups to movies that were enormous successes at the box office (The Matrix grossed $171 million in 1999 dollars while The Hangover grossed $277 million). 21 Jump Street grossed a strong but not huge $136 million. For it to even get close to $60 million opening weekend, it has to be a sequel that far surpasses the original and I simply do not see it.

[Shrykespeare]

I gotta go with Boosh on this one. I see $35-$40M for 22JS, with $50M being the absolute tippy-top.

As for HTTYD2, I would love to see it approach $300M. The original remains my favorite animated film of all time, and while I am not expecting the sequel to be better (that would be nearly impossible), to have it outperform the original would make my year.

[Chienfantome]

22 Jump Street is gonna open way better than the original. Everyone loved the original, it's the middle of summer, the directors and actors are back so there's a strong chance it's gonna be as wickedly fun as the original. I have faith in it.

[undeadmonkey]

I have to side with 22 Jump Street doing well. In the last 5 years, R rated comedy has done very well. Plus out of all the comedies being released this year, it has the star power, it has the name and it has a wide open market.

[transformers2]

22 Jump Street is going to be the R-rated comedy smash of the summer: Well-received first installment, high levels of buzz, Jonah Hill being more popular than ever and no competition around it all but assure that fact. Neighbors should do pretty well too since the premise is golden and the early reception has been overwhelmingly positive. On the other hand, A Million Ways to Die in the West is all but a surefire failure. Trailers have gotten horseshit reception and its a western. Even the presence of Seth McFarlane and a well-known cast is going to make that a tough sell for most audiences.