Future Tracking From Exhibitors

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Shrykespeare
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


11/27 Knives Out - 18.5 OW, 75-105 total
11/27 Queen & Slim - 7.5 OW, 23-33 total

12/6 PLAYMOBIL: The Movie - 4.5 OW, 10-20 total

12/13 Jumanji: The Next Level - 50 OW, 225-275 total
12/13 Richard Jewell - 13 OW, 60-80 total
12/13 Black Christmas - 13 OW, 28-38 total

12/20 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker - 200 OW, 550-750 total
12/20 Cats - 14 OW, 60-120 total
12/20 Bombshell (expansion) - 5 OW, 30-45 total

12/25 Little Women - 20 OW, 80-120 total
12/25 Spies in Disguise - 16 OW, 70-110 total
12/25 Uncut Gems n/a

1/3 The Grudge - 14 OW, 25-45 total

1/10 1917 (wide) - 21 OW, 75-100 total
1/10 Just Mercy (wide) - 14 OW, 50-70 total
1/10 Like a Boss - 17 OW, 45-60 total
1/10 My Spy - 7.5 OW, 20-30 total
1/10 Underwater - 6.5 OW, 12-25 total
1/10 The Informer n/a

1/17 Dolittle - 40 OW, 120-170 total
1/17 Bad Boys for Life - 25 OW, 55-74 total





Bad Boys for Life
Opening Weekend Range: $24 – 34 million

PROS:

The return of stars Will Smith and Martin Lawrence should attract fans of the first two films, many of which for years have been vocal in their desire to see another chapter of the buddy-cop franchise. The second film earned a respectable $138.6 million domestically in summer 2003 — up 110 percent from the 1995 original’s $65.8 million.

Early social media and trailer reaction trends have been very encouraging since this sequel’s first trailer released, underlining the potential appetite for a return to the series.

Opening over MLK weekend should be a further boon to success, not unlike the strategy employed by the Ride Along films in recent years whose mix of comedy, action, and two headline stars were conducive to holiday weekend appeal.

CONS:

Will Smith is coming off the under-performance of Gemini Man, thought it was more a victim of its budget than its actual box office turnout (which wasn’t abnormal for that type of film in this day and age).

As a quarter-century-old franchise, it’s unlikely that millennials will turn out for this. Recent performances by Charlie’s Angels, Terminator: Dark Fate, and Men In Black International are key examples.


Dolittle
Opening Weekend Range: $35 – 55 million

PROS:

Robert Downey, Jr. will be the big draw here after spending the last decade portraying the iconic Tony Stark/Iron Man for Marvel Studios. That franchise has arguably helped build his fan base beyond just adults and cinephiles to include a far more mainstream, family-inclusive audience. He also previously drove two Sherlock Holmes films to big success.

As the first high profile, potentially all-ages film to open in the new year, the holiday weekend debut provides notable breakout potential. Awareness of the IP and the star voice cast should be appealing to adults/parents, while young ones will gravitate toward the comedic and adventure aspects.

Opening nearly one month after Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker and Jumanji: The Next Level should allow those films to have burnt off most of their demand by the time this opens, while direct competition in the weeks after is relatively slim.

CONS:

Initial online reactions to the first teaser trailer were decidedly mixed — although that’s hardly the target audience here, and the same was said for Aladdin almost one year ago.

The IP itself may not be as familiar to kids and millennials today, making Downey and the ensemble voice cast even more integral to box office success.
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Buscemi2
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

Dolittle might be lucky to hit half that. All signs are pointing this one to be a dud.
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numbersix
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by numbersix »

Buscemi2 wrote:Dolittle might be lucky to hit half that. All signs are pointing this one to be a dud.
Agreed. Not even RDJ will save it

W
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by W »

I think Bad Boys hits $100 M.
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Buscemi2
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

I think they waited too long for this one. Terminator: Dark Fate and Charlie's Angels didn't take off and Paramount sold the next Beverly Hills Cop to Netflix. There really hasn't been a market lately for bringing back long dead franchises unless there's a big demand for it (see Jumanji).

Also, does anyone watch the Bad Boys series on the Spectrum service? You know, the one with Gabrielle Union and Jessica Alba.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:



12/6 PLAYMOBIL: The Movie - 4.5 OW, 14 total

12/13 Jumanji: The Next Level - 50 OW, 265 total
12/13 Richard Jewell - 13 OW, 80 total
12/13 Black Christmas - 13 OW, 37 total

12/20 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker - 200 OW, 680 total
12/20 Cats - 14 OW, 75 total
12/20 Bombshell (expansion) - 5 OW, 40 total

12/25 Little Women - 20 OW, 100 total
12/25 Spies in Disguise - 16 OW, 80 total
12/25 Uncut Gems n/a

1/3 The Grudge - 14 OW, 32 total

1/10 1917 (wide) - 21 OW, 82 total
1/10 Just Mercy (wide) - 14 OW, 59 total
1/10 Like a Boss - 17 OW, 51 total
1/10 My Spy - 7 OW, 21 total
1/10 Underwater - 6 OW, 18 total
1/10 The Informer n/a

1/17 Dolittle - 40 OW, 145 total
1/17 Bad Boys for Life - 25 OW, 64 total

1/24 The Turning 14/38
1/24 The Gentlemen 12/38





The Gentlemen
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 15 million

PROS:

Director Guy Ritchie’s fans could turn out in healthy fashion for his return to the crime/thriller/comedy genre if reviews prove positive for this project. The ensemble cast may add further appeal to casual adult moviegoers.

Early social tracking is unsurprisingly tricky this far out, but leaning positive relative to similar films in the genre.

CONS:

Competing with NFL playoffs and opening one week after a holiday frame will be noteworthy challenges.


The Turning
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 15 million

PROS:

Universal has a solid track record of delivering surprise performances from the horror genre, and the PG-13 rating here should further aid appeal to teens.

Initial trailer footprint metrics are encouraging as the early marketing stage recently began.

CONS:

As the third horror/thriller release of January, it will need to stand out (or the other two disappoint) in order to break out beyond expectations.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


12/13 Jumanji: The Next Level - 44 OW, 210 total
12/13 Richard Jewell - 13 OW, 80 total
12/13 Black Christmas - 13 OW, 37.7 total

12/20 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker - 200 OW, 680 total
12/20 Cats - 14 OW, 69 total
12/20 Bombshell (expansion) - 6 OW, 40 total

12/25 Little Women - 20 OW, 100 total
12/25 Spies in Disguise - 16 OW, 80 total
12/25 Uncut Gems n/a

1/3 The Grudge - 14 OW, 32 total

1/10 1917 (wide) - 23 OW, 90 total
1/10 Just Mercy (wide) - 14 OW, 59 total
1/10 Like a Boss - 17 OW, 51 total
1/10 My Spy - 7 OW, 21 total
1/10 Underwater - 6 OW, 18 total
1/10 The Informer n/a

1/17 Dolittle - 40 OW, 145 total
1/17 Bad Boys for Life - 25 OW, 64 total

1/24 The Turning 14/38
1/24 The Gentlemen 12/38
1/24 The Last Full Measure n/a
1/24 Run n/a

1/31 The Rhythm Section 12/38
1/31 Gretel and Hansel 5.5/11






This week’s report glimpses at the end of January and the beginnings of February, which is a big day for sports fans in America as the Super Bowl takes place on Sunday, February 2.

Two new releases will hit cinemas that weekend in hopes of counter-programming the big game. First up, Gretel and Hansel revisits the classic folk tale from The Brothers Grimm and features Sophia Lillis, one of the breakout stars from It.

Early buzz and social trends for the film are muted at this stage, although there is plenty of time for things to pick up as marketing kicks in after the holiday season. Appeal to teens and young adults will be strongest here, but we’re additionally concerned by the recent history of similar titles opening on Super Bowl weekend, leading to conservative forecasts at this time. Our current models identify closest with 2016’s Pride and Prejudice and Zombies.

Second up, The Rhythm Section will court adult viewers with stars Blake Lively and Jude Law leading the way. Based on Mark Burnell’s series of revenge-thriller novels, early trends suggest a fair opening weekend is possible thanks to what should be a mostly female-driven turnout. Again, though, the game will be deterrent for many moviegoers on Sunday.

Fans of Lively in particular should be drivers here after her successful turns in films like The Shallows, Age of Adaline, and A Simple Favor. Current forecasting models for Rhythm are in line with similar genre films like Cold Pursuit and Peppermint, while not far behind those of Red Sparrow and Atomic Blonde.

Next week, we’ll offer up our first public projections for Warner Bros. and DC’s anticipated Birds of Prey and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn, slated to open Friday, February 7.
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Screen203
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Screen203 »

I don't think that Rhythm Section will do that bad. Blake Lively has a solid audience that could be interested in a dark thriller starring her enough to rush out before the game. I bet it does over 15 million OW. Legs will be weak, though, with Birds Of Prey opening the next weekend going for the same audience.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

From seeing the trailer for The Rhythm Section again, I'm getting Anna (Remember that movie from June?) vibes with it. There's been no buzz, Blake Lively has been off-screen for a while (and she's unproven in the action genre), and Reed Morano's been an overhyped director with both of her films being flops.

I'm thinking it fails to hit $20 million, with action-seeking audiences flocking to The Turning instead and people craving a production from the Eon people waiting for No Time to Die.

Meanwhile, I'm thinking the same with The Gentlemen. McConaughey's been in flop after flop, Ritchie's non-Sherlock Holmes/Aladdin output has mostly been niche, and is there still a market for this kind of film when it's not a Kingsman entry? STX probably should have sold this one off to Netflix.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


12/20 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker - 200 OW, 680 total
12/20 Cats - 12 OW, 59 total
12/20 Bombshell (expansion) - 6 OW, 35 total

12/25 Little Women - 23 OW, 115 total
12/25 Spies in Disguise - 16 OW, 75 total
12/25 Uncut Gems 5/ n/a

1/3 The Grudge - 14 OW, 32 total

1/10 1917 (wide) - 24 OW, 94 total
1/10 Just Mercy (wide) - 14 OW, 59 total
1/10 Like a Boss - 17 OW, 51 total
1/10 My Spy - 7 OW, 21 total
1/10 Underwater - 6 OW, 18 total
1/10 The Informer n/a

1/17 Dolittle - 40 OW, 145 total
1/17 Bad Boys for Life - 25 OW, 64 total

1/24 The Turning 14/38
1/24 The Gentlemen 12/38
1/24 The Last Full Measure n/a
1/24 Run n/a

1/31 The Rhythm Section 12/38
1/31 Gretel and Hansel 5.5/11

2/7 Birds of Prey 49/125






Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn)
Opening Weekend Range: $40 – 60 million

PROS:

Margot Robbie’s return to the role of Harley Quinn is far and away the biggest selling point of this spin-off after her widely praised turn as the character in 2016’s summer blockbuster, Suicide Squad.

The DC franchise has seen a steady upswing in goodwill recently thanks to the critical and box office success of films like Joker, Wonder Woman, Shazam!, and Aquaman.

This film’s mostly female ensemble could be very appealing to fans expressing their desire for more diverse offerings from the comic book cinematic realm.

CONS:

Initial reactions to trailers have been mixed, based on social media metrics thus far. The film is generating a fair share of discussion among fan circles, but sentiment isn’t yet comparable with the likes of DC’s bigger hits.

Aside from Harley Quinn herself, the film is packed with lesser known characters that may not be well known outside the DC fan base. Final marketing, reviews, and word of mouth will be crucial to building interest among the uninitiated.

Other than Robbie herself, reception for Suicide Squad was largely mixed and could impact some of the non-fan interest going into this film — especially with possible confusion as to how this movie connects to the recent Joker (it doesn’t).


Upcoming Location Count Estimates

Bombshell (n/a)
Cats (3,200)
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (4,200)
Little Women (3,200)
Spies in Disguise (3,300)
Uncut Gems (2,500 wide expansion)
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

Birds of Prey will do far better than one-third of Suicide Squad's total. Captain Marvel was a lesser-known superheroine and that made over $400 million. Of course, it was the lead-in to Endgame but still.

I think it does at least $200 million.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Aquamann2001 »

I think dolittle bombs. The only way it makes the projection would be if it was a movie for young kids. I doubt this screenwriter/director made this movie for young kids. Dumbo vibes with no Disney tie in.

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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

The only time a Doctor Dolittle film worked from a financial standpoint, they had to modernize the character and make it more comedic. Bringing it back to the setting of the books and going in a dramatic direction isn't going to gel with audiences that grew up with the Eddie Murphy films.

And I've already gone into detail over this one's production issues. I'm in full agreement.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


1/10 1917 (wide) - 27 OW, 100 total
1/10 Just Mercy (wide) - 12 OW, 51 total
1/10 Like a Boss - 13.5 OW, 45 total
1/10 Underwater - 6,5 OW, 14 total

1/17 Dolittle - 28 OW, 102 total
1/17 Bad Boys for Life - 32 OW, 85 total

1/24 The Turning 14/38
1/24 The Gentlemen 12/38
1/24 The Last Full Measure n/a

1/31 The Rhythm Section 12/38
1/31 Gretel and Hansel 5.5/11

2/7 Birds of Prey 49/125

2/14 Sonic the Hedgehog 26/86
2/14 Fantasy Island 17/44
2/14 The Photograph 15/35

2/21 Call of the Wild 15/50
2/21 Brahms: The Boy 2 8/17.8

2/28 The Invisible Man 30/80






The Invisible Man
Opening Weekend Range: $20 – 40 million

PROS:

Star Elisabeth Moss is a notable presence given her ongoing, award-winning success in The Handmaid’s Tale among other career highlights in recent years.

Blumhouse has a strong track record for delivering financially lucrative winners in the horror genre, often crossing over into runaway hit territory with films and franchises like Insidious, The Purge, Happy Death Day, Get Out, Split, and Halloween — among many others.

The film’s first trailer generated very positive metrics upon its release a few months ago, suggesting the combination of high production value, familiar IP to adult audiences, and the surge of thrillers appealing to teens and young adults could combine to deliver an early 2020 hit for the genre.

CONS:

Following in the crowded horror footsteps of Brahms: The Boy 2, Fantasy Island, Gretel and Hansel, The Turning, Underwater, and The Grudge, strong reviews and/or word of mouth could be important for delivering a breakout here since fans of the genre will have had plenty of options to choose from in a short time frame early in the year.



Estimated Location Counts

1917 (3,200 wide on January 10)
Just Mercy (2,200 wide on January 10)
Like a Boss (2,900 on January 10)
Underwater (3,000 on January 10)
Bad Boys for Life (3,300 on January 17)
Dolittle (3,500 on January 17)
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

I can't see The Invisible Man doing that well. The film hasn't been well-marketed and Universal is already planning to reboot the character with Elizabeth Banks as The Invisible Woman, which already suggests this one's not very good.
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