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Future Tracking From Exhibitors

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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » November 22nd, 2019, 2:26 pm

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


11/27 Knives Out - 18.5 OW, 75-105 total
11/27 Queen & Slim - 7.5 OW, 23-33 total

12/6 PLAYMOBIL: The Movie - 4.5 OW, 10-20 total

12/13 Jumanji: The Next Level - 50 OW, 225-275 total
12/13 Richard Jewell - 13 OW, 60-80 total
12/13 Black Christmas - 13 OW, 28-38 total

12/20 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker - 200 OW, 550-750 total
12/20 Cats - 14 OW, 60-120 total
12/20 Bombshell (expansion) - 5 OW, 30-45 total

12/25 Little Women - 20 OW, 80-120 total
12/25 Spies in Disguise - 16 OW, 70-110 total
12/25 Uncut Gems n/a

1/3 The Grudge - 14 OW, 25-45 total

1/10 1917 (wide) - 21 OW, 75-100 total
1/10 Just Mercy (wide) - 14 OW, 50-70 total
1/10 Like a Boss - 17 OW, 45-60 total
1/10 My Spy - 7.5 OW, 20-30 total
1/10 Underwater - 6.5 OW, 12-25 total
1/10 The Informer n/a

1/17 Dolittle - 40 OW, 120-170 total
1/17 Bad Boys for Life - 25 OW, 55-74 total





Bad Boys for Life
Opening Weekend Range: $24 – 34 million

PROS:

The return of stars Will Smith and Martin Lawrence should attract fans of the first two films, many of which for years have been vocal in their desire to see another chapter of the buddy-cop franchise. The second film earned a respectable $138.6 million domestically in summer 2003 — up 110 percent from the 1995 original’s $65.8 million.

Early social media and trailer reaction trends have been very encouraging since this sequel’s first trailer released, underlining the potential appetite for a return to the series.

Opening over MLK weekend should be a further boon to success, not unlike the strategy employed by the Ride Along films in recent years whose mix of comedy, action, and two headline stars were conducive to holiday weekend appeal.

CONS:

Will Smith is coming off the under-performance of Gemini Man, thought it was more a victim of its budget than its actual box office turnout (which wasn’t abnormal for that type of film in this day and age).

As a quarter-century-old franchise, it’s unlikely that millennials will turn out for this. Recent performances by Charlie’s Angels, Terminator: Dark Fate, and Men In Black International are key examples.


Dolittle
Opening Weekend Range: $35 – 55 million

PROS:

Robert Downey, Jr. will be the big draw here after spending the last decade portraying the iconic Tony Stark/Iron Man for Marvel Studios. That franchise has arguably helped build his fan base beyond just adults and cinephiles to include a far more mainstream, family-inclusive audience. He also previously drove two Sherlock Holmes films to big success.

As the first high profile, potentially all-ages film to open in the new year, the holiday weekend debut provides notable breakout potential. Awareness of the IP and the star voice cast should be appealing to adults/parents, while young ones will gravitate toward the comedic and adventure aspects.

Opening nearly one month after Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker and Jumanji: The Next Level should allow those films to have burnt off most of their demand by the time this opens, while direct competition in the weeks after is relatively slim.

CONS:

Initial online reactions to the first teaser trailer were decidedly mixed — although that’s hardly the target audience here, and the same was said for Aladdin almost one year ago.

The IP itself may not be as familiar to kids and millennials today, making Downey and the ensemble voice cast even more integral to box office success.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Buscemi2 » November 22nd, 2019, 2:38 pm

Dolittle might be lucky to hit half that. All signs are pointing this one to be a dud.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby numbersix » November 22nd, 2019, 3:00 pm

Buscemi2 wrote:Dolittle might be lucky to hit half that. All signs are pointing this one to be a dud.


Agreed. Not even RDJ will save it
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby W » November 22nd, 2019, 3:58 pm

I think Bad Boys hits $100 M.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Buscemi2 » November 22nd, 2019, 4:10 pm

I think they waited too long for this one. Terminator: Dark Fate and Charlie's Angels didn't take off and Paramount sold the next Beverly Hills Cop to Netflix. There really hasn't been a market lately for bringing back long dead franchises unless there's a big demand for it (see Jumanji).

Also, does anyone watch the Bad Boys series on the Spectrum service? You know, the one with Gabrielle Union and Jessica Alba.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » November 30th, 2019, 8:40 pm

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:



12/6 PLAYMOBIL: The Movie - 4.5 OW, 14 total

12/13 Jumanji: The Next Level - 50 OW, 265 total
12/13 Richard Jewell - 13 OW, 80 total
12/13 Black Christmas - 13 OW, 37 total

12/20 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker - 200 OW, 680 total
12/20 Cats - 14 OW, 75 total
12/20 Bombshell (expansion) - 5 OW, 40 total

12/25 Little Women - 20 OW, 100 total
12/25 Spies in Disguise - 16 OW, 80 total
12/25 Uncut Gems n/a

1/3 The Grudge - 14 OW, 32 total

1/10 1917 (wide) - 21 OW, 82 total
1/10 Just Mercy (wide) - 14 OW, 59 total
1/10 Like a Boss - 17 OW, 51 total
1/10 My Spy - 7 OW, 21 total
1/10 Underwater - 6 OW, 18 total
1/10 The Informer n/a

1/17 Dolittle - 40 OW, 145 total
1/17 Bad Boys for Life - 25 OW, 64 total

1/24 The Turning 14/38
1/24 The Gentlemen 12/38





The Gentlemen
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 15 million

PROS:

Director Guy Ritchie’s fans could turn out in healthy fashion for his return to the crime/thriller/comedy genre if reviews prove positive for this project. The ensemble cast may add further appeal to casual adult moviegoers.

Early social tracking is unsurprisingly tricky this far out, but leaning positive relative to similar films in the genre.

CONS:

Competing with NFL playoffs and opening one week after a holiday frame will be noteworthy challenges.


The Turning
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 15 million

PROS:

Universal has a solid track record of delivering surprise performances from the horror genre, and the PG-13 rating here should further aid appeal to teens.

Initial trailer footprint metrics are encouraging as the early marketing stage recently began.

CONS:

As the third horror/thriller release of January, it will need to stand out (or the other two disappoint) in order to break out beyond expectations.
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