Future Tracking From Exhibitors

[Screen203]

I see a 50 million opening for John Wick. Buzz is very high, and it's the only major R-rated action movie of the summer.

[Buscemi2]

The Sun is Also a Star was a book? I thought it was based on a newspaper article that focused on some pseudoscience nonsense about love.

[Shrykespeare]

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


4/12 Hellboy 17/36
4/12 Little 15/43
4/12 Missing Link 11/42
4/12 After 3.9/7.9

4/17 Breakthrough 13.5/52
4/17 Penguins 4.5/17.5
4/19 The Curse of La Llorona 20/45

4/26 Avengers: Endgame 265/645

5/3 Long Shot 16/60
5/3 The Intruder 14.5/40
5/3 Uglydolls 8/27

5/10 Detective Pikachu 90/250
5/10 Poms 12.5/45
5/10 The Hustle 12.5/35
5/10 All is True n/a

5/17 John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum 35/100
5/17 The Sun is Also a Star 17/36
5/17 A Dog's Journey 11/39.5

5/24 Aladdin 85/235
5/24 Ad Astra n/a
5/24 Booksmart n/a
5/24 Brightburn n/a

5/31 Godzilla: King of the Monsters 46/110
5/31 Rocketman 37/165
5/31 Ma 24/63






Godzilla: King of the Monsters
Opening Weekend Range: $40 – 60 million

PROS:

The previous film bowed to an excellent $93.2 million in May 2014, reviving the franchise among domestic fans.

Big-budget monster flicks have enjoyed a mini-resurgence in popularity in recent years thanks additionally this film’s in-universe predecessor, Kong: Skull Island ($61 million opening), Rampage ($35.8 million), and the Pacific Rim films ($37.3 million and $28.1 million, respectively).

The promise of a connection to Kong — leading up to next year’s anticipated Godzilla vs. Kong — should serve to entice fans.


CONS:

On a crowded weekend with a variety of films opening, it could be difficult for this sequel to attract the kind of widespread appeal enjoyed by Godzilla (2014) and Skull Island, which had notably less competition to face.

Although Skull Island reception proved more positive, the 2014 Godzilla divided audiences and managed an underwhelming 2.15x multiple from its opening to finish at $200.7 million domestically

As the Godzilla/Kong shared universe goes, we expect diminished returns with this sequel based on current buzz.


Ma
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 30 million

PROS:

The horror/thriller genre remains on fire, and Blumhouse is at the front of that box office charge with brand name appeal to teens and young adults. Original films in particular have developed a trend of over-performing.

With Godzilla aiming for a predominately male/action fan audience, this could counter-program well given that similar films have leaned toward a majority of young female viewers.

Oscar-winning star Octavia Spencer may increase appeal to adult audiences.

CONS:

The film will have to contend with some competition from the weekend’s other releases, while legs will be dependent upon overall reception and word of mouth — especially with the busy slate of horror/thriller titles opening this summer.


Rocketman
Opening Weekend Range: $25 – 45 million

PROS:

Elton John remains one of the most iconic artists in global pop culture, recently coming back to the forefront of music news when he announced his retirement and proceeded to generate rapid sellouts of his farewell tour.

The revival of musically-driven blockbusters could easily create a halo effect leading into this film’s release. 2018 alone saw three hugely successful films (Bohemian Rhapsody, A Star Is Born, and Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again) prove the demand exists.

Early buzz surrounding trailers and footage screenings, plus for Taron Egerton’s performance (and Elton John’s own blessing), provide significant encouragement.

Serving as one of the few summer options for adult audiences that doesn’t rely on big budgets and special effects makes this a strong candidate for counter-programming success. Staying power through the season expected as long as word of mouth is positive.

Pending Aladdin and Godzilla‘s word of mouth, this could be a dark horse candidate to win its first weekend at the box office.


CONS:

Opening one week after Aladdin puts the film in the position of competing with another musically-driven movie.

While comparisons to Bohemian Rhapsody ($51.1 million debut) and A Star Is Born ($42.9 million) seem obvious, the former of the two titles was largely aided by Freddie Mercury’s legend having grown in the decades since his untimely passing. Similarly, A Star Is Born had the aid of a powerhouse star duo in Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga to bolster upfront demand.

[Buscemi2]

Surprised by the low tracking on Ma. The way this film's been talked about, you'd think it was an easy $100 million.

Of course, I could see reviews hurting this one.

[Screen203]

I can't see Rocketman doing much over 100 million. The "Based on a true fantasy" tagline as well as the more fantastical imagery in the marketing seem to point to more of a musical loosely based on Elton's life instead of a traditional biopic - audiences will probably expect some artsy elements because it's an Elton John biopic but I'm not sure if making it more a musical will hurt the gross after opening weekend (which I expect to be big, but with fast drops afterwards).

[Shrykespeare]

]Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


4/17 Breakthrough 13/50
4/17 Penguins 4.25/17.5
4/19 The Curse of La Llorona 19/42

4/26 Avengers: Endgame 272/660

5/3 Long Shot 12.5/50
5/3 The Intruder 14.5/40
5/3 Uglydolls 13/44

5/10 Detective Pikachu 90/250
5/10 Poms 12.5/45
5/10 The Hustle 12.5/35
5/10 All is True n/a

5/17 John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum 35/100
5/17 The Sun is Also a Star 17/36
5/17 A Dog's Journey 11/39.5

5/24 Aladdin 85/235
5/24 Ad Astra n/a
5/24 Booksmart n/a
5/24 Brightburn n/a

5/31 Godzilla: King of the Monsters 48/130
5/31 Rocketman 37/165
5/31 Ma 24/63

6/7 The Secret Life of Pets 2 80/263
6/7 Dark Phoenix 47/113
6/7 Late Night n/a





Dark Phoenix
Opening Weekend Range: $40 – 55 million

PROS:

The returning cast of James McAvoy, Michael Fassbender, Sophie Turner, and others from the First Class/Days of Future Past/Apocalypse trilogy will offer continuity and likely bring back fans of those chapters.

To date, every film in the X-Men film franchise (11, including the Deadpool films) has opened north of $50 million domestically, demonstrating its reliability over the past two decades.

Director Simon Kinberg and early trailers offer promise that the film will appeal to fans disappointed by the last on-screen portrayal of the Dark Phoenix story — considered one of the most popular in X-Men and Marvel comic lore — in 2006’s The Last Stand.

CONS:

Early social media traction has fallen shy of Apocalypse‘s at the same point before release, generating significantly less Twitter discussion thus far.
The revelation of a major character’s apparent demise in the most recent trailer has muddied buzz recently.

In addition to likely paying for the lukewarm reception of Apocalypse two years ago (which managed just a 2.36x multiple from opening weekend), this entry now faces the challenge of overcoming franchise fatigue as fans are already looking ahead to how Disney will reboot the characters and property in the wake of the Fox acquisition. This could significantly diminish Dark Phoenix‘s attempts to course correct the franchise, regardless of the quality of the movie itself.


The Secret Life of Pets 2
Opening Weekend Range: $70 – 90 million

PROS:

The first film was a runaway breakout three years ago, opening to $104.4 million (the most ever for an original movie) and legging out to a strong $368.4 million domestically.

This sequel represents the first tentpole animated release of summer, which has historically proven fruitful for movies in a similar position.

With most of the ensemble cast returning in addition to new voice actors — plus director Chris Renaud’s return — it can safely be expected that Illumination will live up to its usual standards of quality as the film aims for multi-age appeal.

CONS:

Opening two weeks after Aladdin will place some minor importance on that film’s overall reception and appeal to young audiences, but the more significant source of competition will be Toy Story 4 when it opens two weeks after Pets 2. In reverse of the situation that played out in summer 2013 (when Monsters University opened two weeks before Despicable Me 2), we’re currently expecting the Pixar sequel to claim the summer animation box office crown this time after tremendously positive reactions to its early trailers.

[Shrykespeare]

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


4/26 Avengers: Endgame 270-300/660-730

5/3 Long Shot 12.5/50
5/3 The Intruder 16/44
5/3 Uglydolls 13.5/48

5/10 Detective Pikachu 90/250
5/10 Poms 11/40
5/10 The Hustle 14.5/41

5/17 John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum 35/100
5/17 The Sun is Also a Star 17/36
5/17 A Dog's Journey 11/39.5

5/24 Aladdin 85/235
5/24 Ad Astra n/a
5/24 Booksmart n/a
5/24 Brightburn n/a

5/31 Godzilla: King of the Monsters 54/144
5/31 Rocketman 37/165
5/31 Ma 24/63

6/7 The Secret Life of Pets 2 80/263
6/7 Dark Phoenix 47/113
6/7 Late Night n/a

6/14 Men In Black International 39/107
6/14 Shaft 31/100





Men In Black International
Opening Weekend Range: $30 – 50 million

PROS:

2012’s third film earned back some goodwill among fans of the franchise as strong word of mouth helped MIB3 generate a strong 3.28x multiplier off its $54.6 million opening weekend — resulting in a $179 million domestic total.

Stars Chris Hemsworth and Tessa Thompson could help bring in some Marvel Cinematic Universe fans thanks to their well-received chemistry in Thor: Ragnarok, while the addition of Liam Neeson adds some attraction for older viewers.
Director F. Gary Gray is no stranger to franchise success, having helmed The Fate of the Furious after the breakout success of Straight Outta Compton.

The early summer market is notably short on comedies aimed at an adult audience, leaving an opening for this to do well if reviews and word of mouth turn out positive.

CONS:

The absence of Will Smith, Tommy Lee Jones, and Josh Brolin — the faces of the franchise — is likely to disinterest many fans who helped turn the first three movies into box office hits.

As recent franchise revivals like Ghostbusters (2016) and Terminator: Genisys have displayed, franchise revivals are tough sells unless there’s a fresh hook that can capture a variety of moviegoers. Much will depend on this film’s ability to interest millennials young and old.

Building on the previous point, past franchises have shown fatigue to set in upon the fourth installment of a franchise — Shrek Forever After, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, and Transformers: Age of Extinction being recent examples among others.


Shaft
Opening Weekend Range: $25 – 40 million

PROS:

The previous film in 2000 earned a strong $21.7 million opening / $70.3 million domestic run, which translates to approximately $37 million / $120 million with today’s ticket prices.

Samuel L. Jackson’s return is a promising selling point given his popularity has only increased in the last 19 years, thanks largely to his turns in the Marvel Cinematic Universe.

In addition to Jackson, the return of original Shaft actor Richard Roundtree and new comer Jesse Usher could make this a potentially entertaining option for multiple generations of moviegoers — especially with Father’s Day landing on Sunday of opening weekend.

CONS:

Competing with Men In Black International‘s debut could be a slight challenge if that film’s marketing and pre-release buzz picks up in the coming weeks.
Given a possible lack of familiarity among younger audiences, a less front-loaded run than is typical of sequels may be possible as older viewers aren’t always drivers of major opening weekends.

[Buscemi2]

I'd be surprised if Shaft hit $100 million, even with it learning from the mistakes the Superfly remake made. The fact that Warner Bros. sold off international rights to Netflix suggests that they don't see a big hit with it.

I'm thinking it does half that but is still considered a success.

[Shrykespeare]

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


5/3 Long Shot 12/50
5/3 The Intruder 13.9/38.5
5/3 Uglydolls 13.5/48

5/10 Detective Pikachu 82/250
5/10 Poms 9.5/40
5/10 The Hustle 14.5/41

5/17 John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum 37/106
5/17 The Sun is Also a Star 12.5/36
5/17 A Dog's Journey 11.5/41.3

5/24 Aladdin 85/235
5/24 Ad Astra n/a
5/24 Booksmart n/a
5/24 Brightburn n/a

5/31 Godzilla: King of the Monsters 54/144
5/31 Rocketman 37/165
5/31 Ma 24/63

6/7 The Secret Life of Pets 2 80/263
6/7 Dark Phoenix 47/113
6/7 Late Night n/a

6/14 Men In Black International 39/107
6/14 Shaft 31/100

6/21 Toy Story 4 113/390
6/21 Child's Play 17/42.5






Toy Story 4
Opening Weekend Range: $105 – 130 million

PROS:

The Toy Story franchise remains beloved by families and Pixar fans after 24 years in action, and the nine-year gap between sequels could serve to aid anticipation among parents who will introduce the series to new generation of kids that’s come about since the previous film.

Reactions to early teaser trailers for this sequel have been largely positive, with new characters like Forky and the stuffed animals voiced by Jordan Peele and Keegan-Michael Key standing out so far. The return of key cast members like Tom Hanks’s Woody and Tim Allen’s Buzz Lightyear remain staples, of course.

This will represent the last tentpole, computer-animated comedy of the summer, which should bode well if reviews and word of mouth are strong as they have been for each of the first three films.

CONS:

Following Toy Story 3 could be a bigger challenge than ever for the franchise after that film earned Oscar recognition and was heralded by many as the perfect conclusion to the series. This won’t deter younger fans, but, the demand among adults who grew up with the original films doesn’t appear to be as measurably strong (yet) as it was for Incredibles 2 or Finding Dory at this stage in the pre-release window.

Opening two weeks after The Secret Life of Pets 2 creates an interesting competitive crossover given the very similar target audiences and animated comedy genres. That film’s reception could be key toward Toy Story 4‘s ultimate potential, and may lead to some back-loading later in the run and/or a deflated opening weekend relative to recent blockbuster Pixar sequels like Incredibles 2 and Finding Dory. The lack of a Father’s Day weekend boost will be another advantage missing from this film’s opening weekend arsenal that its predecessor benefited from.


Child’s Play (2019)
Opening Weekend Range: $12 – 22 million

PROS:

The original films were low-budget successes in the world of B-rate horror back in the late 1980s and early 1990s, which might create some nostalgia for a return to the series among adult horror fans.

Casting Aubrey Plaza and Brian Tyree Henry could be advantageous toward boosting appeal among millennials.

CONS:

The volume of horror titles opening this summer may serve to reduce this film’s chances of a breakout, particularly with Annabelle Comes Home opening one week later and bringing with it a built-in fan base from the Conjuring universe.

Nostalgic horror remakes have had a modest time at the box office in recent years. Although the recent Pet Sematary opened well, it had the aid of the resurgent Stephen King brand behind it and, notably, less direct competition afterward. Early comps for this title include 2015’s Poltergeist and 2013’s Carrie.

[NicodemustheSage]

...Is "Ad Astra" even coming out? Damn if I've seen word one of any marketing for it.

--Nico.

[transformers2]

Ad Astra will likely get officially pushed sometime in the week or two. Believe I read in a Deadline piece profiling the release status of Fox's titles following the Disney merger that a TBD fall release is likely.

[NicodemustheSage]

Good to know, thanks for the confirmation. I'm about to Post something in the "How High Will Endgame Go?" thread I'd like to hear your, and Buscemi2's, take on.

--Nico.

[NicodemustheSage]

...Yeah, I still don't get this, but, it's getting harder for me to dismiss what I'm hearing, too. This could very well be my 1st-Round pick, and I'll be damned if I'm ever going to know why.

https://www.syfy.com/syfywire/detective ... 2zdEpwQv7o

--Nico.

[Buscemi2]

Ad Astra wasn't ready for Cannes so I'd imagine it will be saved for Oscar time. However, Disney also has another space-themed film intended for Oscars, Lucy in the Sky (which looks a lot like last year's First Man). In the end, I expect Lucy to be ready for the fall festivals and Ad Astra to get platformed for Christmas.

As for this week's tracking, I'm still not sold on Child's Play. Pet Sematary kind of underperformed and this film looks too drastic of a change from the original franchise. Also, "technology is evil" movies are box office poison and Aubrey Plaza isn't a movie star (I do like Brian Tyree Henry's chances of breaking out as a star). Lastly, Mark Hamill as Chucky's voice is somewhat odd casting.

[Screen203]

I think Child's Play will underperform as well. Chucky is to associated with direct-to-video B-movies to be taken seriously, and Annabelle will provide competition a week later (and the return of Stranger Things will take away the buzz it could have gotten from the 80's/90's science fiction/horror crowd).