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Future Tracking From Exhibitors

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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby NicodemustheSage » December 19th, 2018, 8:22 pm

"Aguaman"'s looking like a potential $250M film to me, maybe closer to $300M. I'll take it.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4468&p=.htm
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Buscemi2 » December 20th, 2018, 12:13 am

I saw it tonight and the guy next to me spent half the movie on his phone. Not sure if that's an endorsement.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby NicodemustheSage » December 21st, 2018, 1:43 am

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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Buscemi2 » December 21st, 2018, 1:46 am

Disney should have reissued the original to build the new one up, kind of like how Hocus Pocus returned to theatres to promote the new Blu-ray.

But I'm sure Mary Poppins Returns will play like The Greatest Showman did: poor opening followed by crazy word-of-mouth. And that film had a lot of negative reviews.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby NicodemustheSage » December 21st, 2018, 1:47 am

Oh, agreed, 100%. But... Still. Wowzers.

https://deadline.com/2018/12/aquaman-bu ... 202524462/
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby undeadmonkey » December 21st, 2018, 1:57 pm

NicodemustheSage wrote:...Wait, what?

https://www.showbiz411.com/2018/12/20/b ... mes-review


this article seems very biased. Projections have always been around $35, saying a musical should open at $70M is crazy(not to mention 77% is still a fresh RT score). If it hits projection, it can have the same headlines ala spiderman, 'highest december musical opening ever'
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » December 22nd, 2018, 2:02 pm

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


12/25 Holmes & Watson 12/65
12/25 Vice 9/60

1/4 Escape Room 13/32

1/11 A Dog's Way Home 12/40
1/11 The Upside 13/39
1/11 Perfect Strangers n/a
1/11 Replicas n/a

1/18 Glass 67/180
1/18 Arctic Dogs 5.5/17

1/25 The Kid Who Would Be King 15/50
1/25 Serenity 10/30
1/25 Untitled STX Action Thriller n/a

2/1 Miss Bala 10/28
2/1 Jacob's Ladder n/a
2/1 The Informer n/a

2/8 The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part 60/213
2/8 What Men Want 25/63
2/8 Cold Pursuit 13/40
2/8 The Prodigy n/a

2/13 Isn't It Romantic 14/54
2/14 Happy Death Day 2U 24/52
2/14 Alita: Battle Angel 14.5/41
2/14 Fighting With My Family n/a




Isn’t It Romantic
Opening Weekend Range: $12 – 17 million (Friday through Sunday)

PROS:

Rebel Wilson’s starring presence should aid appeal to fans of her previous work, particularly the Pitch Perfect franchise.
This film’s time-loop plot device calls back on a variety of successful films like Groundhog’s Day and Happy Death Day. The romantic comedy aspect will naturally appeal to date night audiences this time of year.

CONS:

With a slew of holiday releases on the minds of moviegoers right now, it’s possible the film’s interest and awareness levels won’t truly pop until after the new year. That said, competing with the teen-driven Happy Death Day 2U will be a minor challenge.


Alita: Battle Angel
Opening Weekend Range: $12 – 20 million (Friday through Sunday)

PROS:

Fans of the graphic novel have long anticipated a big screen version of the series.
Producer James Cameron and director Robert Rodriguez’s credentials should only add to the enthusiasm of genre fans.
A long lead time in marketing, due partly to multiple release delays, means awareness shouldn’t be a major concern.

CONS:

Following the under-performance of films like Ghost In the Shell and Valerian, we’re cautious in expectations for this title given the strong potential of niche appeal.
Early social trends are mixed.


Happy Death Day 2U
Opening Weekend Range: $19 – 26 million (Friday through Sunday)

PROS:

The first film was yet another micro-budget hit for Blumhouse, whose name alone has become synonymous with quality horror films — especially those targeting teen and young adult audiences. Not unrelated, the horror genre has been on fire at the box office in recent years.
Horror titles are popular choices for date night crowds, making the Valentine’s release a smart move. The added comedic angle offers a fresh take as well.
CONS:

At this time, there’s little to be concerned about with what should be a fairly review-proof sequel aiming for a built-in audience.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Buscemi2 » December 22nd, 2018, 5:46 pm

No way Vice will hit $60 million with the reviews it's been getting.

And I think Happy Death Day 2U will make much less. It basically looks like the exact same film as the first but redone as a comedy. And horror comedy is often a hard sell. Also, I think the disappointing numbers on Truth or Dare might suggest this audience has gotten a bit smarter about the genre.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Screen203 » December 24th, 2018, 12:31 am

Buscemi2 wrote: And I think Happy Death Day 2U will make much less. It basically looks like the exact same film as the first but redone as a comedy. And horror comedy is often a hard sell. Also, I think the disappointing numbers on Truth or Dare might suggest this audience has gotten a bit smarter about the genre.


The markerting team seems to be making odd choices with that movie already. The audience at Second Act loved that trailer. ;)

Looks entertaining, though (never saw the first one - wasn't it meant to be along the lines of Scream or the old Evil Dead films?)
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Buscemi2 » December 24th, 2018, 1:09 am

The first one is terrible. Basically, it's Groundhog Day for people who never saw Groundhog Day and half the film consists of references to better movies (besides Groundhog Day, we get scenes that ape Vertigo and Sixteen Candles and references to Back to the Future, They Live, Army of Darkness, and Mystery Science Theater 3000: The Movie). And for a film where much of the cast is female, the screenplay has a rather misogynistic vibe to it (but then again, a lot of the horror community consists of men who try to claim it's acceptable to depict women as easily killable objects all because they still think it's the 80's).
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby NicodemustheSage » December 24th, 2018, 9:11 am

I'm actually really surprised that "Glass" and "The Kid Who Would Be King" are tracking so high, especially "Glass"'s O.W.

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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » January 12th, 2019, 7:34 pm

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


1/18 Glass 50/108

1/25 The Kid Who Would Be King 10/40
1/25 Serenity 6/17

2/1 Miss Bala 9/14

2/8 The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part 60/213
2/8 What Men Want 25/63
2/8 Cold Pursuit 13/40
2/8 The Prodigy n/a

2/13 Isn't It Romantic 14/54
2/14 Happy Death Day 2U 24/52
2/14 Alita: Battle Angel 14.5/44
2/14 Fighting With My Family n/a

2/22 How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World 44/155
2/22 Rhythm Section n/a
2/22 The Turning n/a

3/1 TP's A Madea Family Funeral 27/68
3/1 Chaos Walking n/a
3/1 Greta n/a

3/8 Captain Marvel 160/465




Captain Marvel
Opening Weekend Range: $140 – $180 million

PROS:

Reaching the opening weekend level of past March blockbusters like The Hunger Games ($152.5 million), Batman v Superman ($166 million), and Beauty and the Beast ($174.8 million) is in play based on current tracking metrics.

Audiences have demanded a female-driven film from the MCU since its inception eleven years ago. Delivering on that promise with the franchise’s most powerful superhero yet has only strengthened interest, and the major success of DC’s Wonder Woman underlines the potential of a strong female character in the lucrative Marvel universe.

Casting Oscar-winner Brie Larson alongside the return of series veterans Samuel L. Jackson and Clark Gregg further deepens the connection to past and future Marvel films.

On top of representing the first female-led film in the series, the character’s tease at the end of Avengers: Infinity War — as well as the likelihood of connecting the dots between that film and May’s forthcoming Avengers: Endgame — may serve to give this origin story a higher “must see” factor (ala Black Panther) than most origin films.

Following advance ticket sales starting earlier this week, Fandango reported it has become the third best pre-seller in MCU history after Infinity War and Black Panther.

Early trailer reactions have been very positive, which is par for the Marvel course these days. Two months from release, 89 percent of surveyed audiences in our Trailer Impact report said they are “definitely interested” or “interested” — only 5 percent less than Endgame‘s interest score.
Taking place in the 1990s, the nostalgia card could be effectively played with older millennial and Gen-X moviegoers. With strong appeal to women of all ages, four-quadrant potential is notably high.


CONS:

In the world of Disney’s MCU, there’s every expectation that the film will be a success even if it performs at the most conservative end of expectations. That being said, reviews and word of mouth — as with any film — will be very important toward opening weekend and long-run potential. For perspective, prior to Black Panther‘s historic $202 million opening, no origin film in the MCU had topped $100 million in its first three days.

With films like Dumbo and Shazam! opening late March/early April, plus a seven-week window before Endgame, the film’s opening-to-total multiple could be a little softer than Panther‘s (which opened more than two months ahead of Infinity War last year).

Strong early sales could partly be attributable to buzz around the character’s involvement with Endgame. As such, it’s difficult to gauge at this time if the film is following typical origin film patterns or is veering more closely to pre-sale trends like those of a sequel.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Buscemi2 » January 12th, 2019, 8:07 pm

Reviews have really killed Glass.

As for Captain Marvel, though it's got MCU fans, women, 90's nostalgia, and cat lovers on its side, I'm still afraid the men's rights community will try to hurt the film. Disney's been a big target for them ever since Star Wars.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Screen203 » January 13th, 2019, 9:30 pm

Glass should still have a large opening weekend despite the reviews. The buzz around it is very high.

And the MRA's have already started their campaign against Captian Marvel, unfortunately. On YouTube, a good third of the comments on the trailers are about "Social Justice Warriors" and the other bullshit that the MRA's spit out. :roll:
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Buscemi2 » January 13th, 2019, 9:38 pm

That's just YouTube comments in a nutshell. In fact, the moderation of YouTube is terrible. They are so obsessed with finding copyright violations that they ignore the real problem: people using the site as a platform of hate. And they've been criticized in the past for not taking down anti-Semitic videos/ads.
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