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Future Tracking From Exhibitors

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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » January 20th, 2018, 7:36 pm

I disagree. There are a lot of gay teens out there, who may rally around this film.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » January 27th, 2018, 7:15 pm

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

2/2 Winchester 11.5/31

2/9 Fifty Shades Freed 40/100
2/9 Peter Rabbit 19/78
2/9 The 15:17 to Paris 15/47

2/16 Black Panther 133.371
2/16 Early Man 5/25
2/16 Samson 3.5/13

2/23 Game Night 17/55
2/23 Annihilation 15/50
2/23 War with Grandpa n/a
2/23 Every Day n/a

3/2 Red Sparrow 26/84
3/2 Death Wish 13.5/34

3/9 A Wrinkle in Time 52/154
3/9 Strangers: Prey at Night 4/8.5
3/9 Gringo 3/7.5
3/9 The Upside n/a
3/9 The Hurricane Heist n/a

3/16 Tomb Raider 22/55
3/16 Love Simon 13/40

3/23 Pacific Rim Uprising 20/49
3/23 Sherlock Gnomes 12/45
3/23 Midnight Sun 6/15
3/23 Unsane n/a




PROS:

Pacific Rim: Uprising boasts John Boyega taking over the lead role and fresh off his newfound fame from the Star Wars franchise. Although fan favorite and recent Oscar nominee Guillermo del Toro isn’t returning to direct, Steven S. DeKnight takes the reigns following his successful work on Marvel’s Daredevil Netflix series. Early social buzz is generally positive among die hard fans of the 2013 original film.

Sherlock Gnomes enters a spring market largely devoid of obvious animated box office hits for families and young kids. Initial trailers are encouraging, and staying power should be expected until direct competition arrives in early summer.

Midnight Sun will hope to court teen date night crowds with Bella Thorne and Patrick Schwarzenegger in the lead roles.


CONS:

The original Pacific Rim was a modest box office player in North America, and the nearly five-year wait may prove too long for Uprising to fully capitalize on the heat from that film’s fan support. Opening in between Tomb Raider and Ready Player One will likewise cut into its target audience, but this is ultimately a sequel made more for overseas audiences, where the original film was a sizable hit — particularly in China.

Coming seven years after the surprise hit that was Gnomeo & Juliet, it may similarly be too late for Sherlock Gnomes to benefit from its predecessor’s success in the fullest possible way.

Open Road’s limited box office history has us conservative with Midnight Sun, with expectations similar to that of last year’s Before I Fall.


This Week’s Other Notes

As noted in our report on Thursday, traditional tracking has chimed in for the first time on Black Panther. With early surveys showing interest metrics ahead of Deadpool and other similar titles, combined with strong social media numbers and presales reports, our forecasts continue to increase for the anticipated Disney/Marvel release.

Unsane, also slated to open March 23, is excluded from the forecast until marketing begins and a true wide release is confirmed.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Buscemi2 » January 27th, 2018, 8:59 pm

I have a feeling Soderbergh doesn't have the money to release Unsane. He lost so much on Logan Lucky (and shot himself in the foot by selling all non-theatrical rights just to cover the bloated budget) that it wouldn't be surprising if he was broke or nearing bankruptcy.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Bleecker Street buy it outright and give it a quick limited release later in the year.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby undeadmonkey » January 29th, 2018, 12:25 pm

Black Panther will probably open with $150M and summer blockbuster season will start in February now
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » February 3rd, 2018, 1:02 pm

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

2/9 Fifty Shades Freed 40/98
2/9 Peter Rabbit 19/73
2/9 The 15:17 to Paris 15/47

2/16 Black Panther 139/400
2/16 Early Man 5/25
2/16 Samson 3.5/13

2/23 Game Night 16/55
2/23 Annihilation 14/50
2/23 Every Day 3/7.5

3/2 Red Sparrow 26/84
3/2 Death Wish 13.5/34

3/9 A Wrinkle in Time 52/154
3/9 The Hurricane Heist 6/15
3/9 Strangers: Prey at Night 4/8.5
3/9 Gringo 3/7.5

3/16 Tomb Raider 22/55
3/16 Love Simon 13/40

3/23 Pacific Rim Uprising 20/49
3/23 Sherlock Gnomes 12/45
3/23 Midnight Sun 6/15
3/23 Unsane n/a

3/28 Paul Apostle of Christ 13/51
3/30 Ready Player One 54/180
3/30 Acrimony 19/46
3/30 God's Not Dead: A Light in Darkness 6/15.4



Ready Player One
Warner Bros. / Amblin Entertainment


PROS:

Steven Spielberg taking on Steven Spielberg. He remains arguably the most recognized filmmaker among today’s audiences, and the meta-like homages to his own past work should fuel nostalgic appeal that has dominated various film and television hits in recent years.

One of the strength’s of Ernest Cline’s best-selling novel is the fact that it culls from a deep library of pop culture references rooted in the Spielberg-dominated 1980s era of film and television. The combination of those multiple fandoms could be a potent advantage for the film at the box office with potential appeal to adults as well as millennials and younger audiences.

Opening nearly one month after A Wrinkle In Time, the film has a wide open market to itself with no other apparent blockbusters on the calendar until May’s Avengers: Infinity War. If strong word of mouth backs this widely anticipated adaptation, staying power could be very strong heading into late spring and early summer.


CONS:

Initial reactions to the teaser trailer last year were somewhat muted, primarily due to some criticism that the effects didn’t look up to par with what is expected from the beloved source material or an event-level Spielberg film. That being said, the post-production team has had plenty of time to up their game in that department, and more recent clips from the film have begun to alleviate some of that concern.

Spielberg’s ventures back into the big-budget movie arena have trended downward at the box office in recent years, unfortunately. While he has continued to garner critical and commercial acclaim with prestige films like Lincoln, The Post, Bridge of Spies, and War Horse, large scale and FX-driven releases like The BFG and Tintin were relative under-performers in North America.


This Week’s Other Notes:

Black Panther continues to search for its ceiling as strong buzz out of the premiere and news that it’s become Fandango’s best-selling superhero film of all-time drive expectations even higher. Interest and intent-to-see metrics — combined with very impressive social media activity — continue to suggest the film’s four-day opening could hit or exceed the $150-160 million range. With reviews expected to be strong, at this point, there’s little reason to doubt that the film is primed to become a cultural blockbuster milestone.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » February 10th, 2018, 12:26 pm

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

2/16 Black Panther 139/400
2/16 Early Man 5/25
2/16 Samson 3.5/13

2/23 Game Night 16/55
2/23 Annihilation 14/50
2/23 Every Day 3/7.5

3/2 Red Sparrow 22/69
3/2 Death Wish 13.5/34

3/9 A Wrinkle in Time 52/154
3/9 The Hurricane Heist 6/15
3/9 Strangers: Prey at Night 4/8.5
3/9 Gringo 3/7.5

3/16 Tomb Raider 22/55
3/16 Love Simon 13/40

3/23 Pacific Rim Uprising 20/49
3/23 Sherlock Gnomes 12/45
3/23 Midnight Sun 6/15
3/23 Unsane n/a

3/28 Paul Apostle of Christ 13/51
3/30 Ready Player One 54/180
3/30 Acrimony 19/46
3/30 God's Not Dead: A Light in Darkness 6/15.4

4/6 Blockers 20/67
4/6 A Quiet Place 17/60




PROS:

Leslie Mann, John Cena, and Ike Barinholtz form an encouraging comedic ensemble that could help Blockers appeal to adult crowds. Additionally boasting comedy veterans Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg (This Is the End, Sausage Party) in producing roles further aids expectations that this could be a crowd-pleasing release in what’s expected to be a relatively slow month at the box office. Early social media buzz is positive with Facebook activity standing out in particular.

John Krasinski directs himself and wife Emily Blunt in the original horror film A Quiet Place, whose trailer has generated strong reception both online and with significant play time in front of The Last Jedi over the holidays. The horror genre has also shown a knack for over-performing against expectations at the box office in recent years, setting this release up for potential success.


CONS:

Blockers will need to avoid the traps of mainstream comedies, which have been hit or miss (more the latter) at the box office and with critics in recent years. To that end, reviews and marketing closer to release will be key factors to watch.

While opening one week before Friday the 13th on the calendar, A Quiet Place will face direct competition in its second frame on that very date with Truth or Dare — another horror release which is aimed directly at the teenage crowd crucial to driving the genre. Word of mouth could allow both films to coexist, though.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby BanksIsDaFuture » February 11th, 2018, 1:32 am

Hell, I can't see Blockers making $20M total. That kind of super-juvenile R rated comedy hasn't done well in years.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Buscemi2 » February 11th, 2018, 1:37 am

As awful as it looks, I have a feeling that there are a lot of people who would watch John Cena chug a beer with his ass. People like stupid humor. Just look at the Peter Rabbit movie, which is going to make over $20 million this weekend despite it being basically Alvin and the Chipmunks with Beatrix Potter characters (face it, a lot of these kids' movies are really made for adults who find commercials funny). It's also a much more likely sell than Super Troopers 2, a sequel to a minor cult film from sixteen years ago that was supposed to arrive a long time ago (yes, it tested well but how much of that audience consisted of Broken Lizard fans and Kickstarter boosters?).

And no way that A Quiet Place makes $60 million. Truth or Dare a week later will be a much easier sell for the intended audience (remember that Happy Death Day made $55 million for some reason).
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » February 17th, 2018, 12:21 pm

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

2/23 Game Night 16/55
2/23 Annihilation 13.5/40
2/23 Every Day 3/7.5

3/2 Red Sparrow 21.5/66
3/2 Death Wish 15/39

3/9 A Wrinkle in Time 52/154
3/9 The Hurricane Heist 5/12.5
3/9 Strangers: Prey at Night 6/13
3/9 Gringo 4/10

3/16 Tomb Raider 22/55
3/16 Love Simon 13/40

3/23 Pacific Rim Uprising 20/49
3/23 Sherlock Gnomes 12/45
3/23 Midnight Sun 6/15
3/23 Unsane n/a

3/28 Paul Apostle of Christ 14.5/51
3/30 Ready Player One 54/180
3/30 Acrimony 19/46
3/30 God's Not Dead: A Light in Darkness 6/15.4

4/6 Blockers 19/63
4/6 A Quiet Place 20/64

4/13 Truth or Dare 23/47
4/13 Overboard 14/39
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » February 24th, 2018, 12:44 pm

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

3/2 Red Sparrow 20/60
3/2 Death Wish 17/43.5

3/9 A Wrinkle in Time 48/142
3/9 The Hurricane Heist 5/12.5
3/9 Strangers: Prey at Night 7/15
3/9 Gringo 4/10
3/9 I Can Only Imagine 1.5/3

3/16 Tomb Raider 24/60
3/16 Love Simon 13/40

3/23 Pacific Rim Uprising 20/49
3/23 Sherlock Gnomes 12/45
3/23 Midnight Sun 6/15
3/23 Unsane n/a

3/28 Paul Apostle of Christ 14.5/51
3/30 Ready Player One 54/180
3/30 Acrimony 19/46
3/30 God's Not Dead: A Light in Darkness 6/15.4

4/6 Blockers 19/63
4/6 A Quiet Place 20/64

4/13 Truth or Dare 23/47
4/13 Overboard 14/39

4/20 Rampage 25/62
4/20 Super Troopers 2 5/10
4/20 Tully n/a



Leading the charge that weekend will be the latest Dwayne Johnson actioner, Rampage, which is based on the 1980s era arcade game of the same name. Given the mixed history of game-to-film adaptations, Johnson’s star power will be crucial to making this one succeed. Director Brad Peyton previously helmed the leading man with great commercial success in 2015’s San Andreas, but social media buzz is fairly modest compared for Rampage compared to that and Johnson’s bigger hits. Opening three weeks after Ready Player One and two weeks before Avengers: Infinity War could further soften potential impact in the late spring marketplace.

Meanwhile, Super Troopers 2 will finally make its way to theaters after years of demand and anticipation from the original film’s cult following. Most of the franchise’s Facebook footprint is a byproduct of that aforementioned first film, while Twitter buzz is generally soft at this point in time. Being released under the Fox Searchlight banner, a major marketing campaign on the level of high profile comedic sequels shouldn’t be expected until closer to release.

Focus Features also has Jason Reitman and Diablo Cody’s Tully slated to open on April 20. Forecasts will follow closer to that date when/if the extent of its planned wide release is confirmed.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby W » February 26th, 2018, 10:29 am

Low on Rampage. It'll hit $100 M.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby numbersix » February 26th, 2018, 10:53 am

If I were Warner, I'd be spending every buck on making Rampage look like exactly the film Jumanji was, because I'd say by April the film will have stopped earning T5 and PTa points!
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Buscemi2 » February 26th, 2018, 11:11 am

Jumanji had more star power (Hart's also a big star and even Jack Black still has some relevance) and a more relevant brand name though. Rampage is yet another video game adaptation and the latest trailer (which depicts the film as Rise of the Planet of the Apes as made by Michael Bay and with unnecessary comic relief) is awful.

I have a feeling it will perform above Baywatch (the last time a studio thought you could surround Johnson with a B/C-list cast and a tired brand and make money) but way under Jumanji or even Central Intelligence.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby W » February 26th, 2018, 12:06 pm

I know it's a video game adaptation. How many else know/care? Rampage is a bit of a recognizable franchise, but not for the mainstream. Rampage's heyday was 1985 and the redid it for (if I remember correctly) N64 and PS1 and maybe Wii with little success. 99% of people are going to see The Rock with monsters and will see it because of that. It's a little bit Jumanji, a little bit San Andreas. It could hit Central Intelligence numbers. Probably slightly short of it, though. Double-ish Baywatch.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Buscemi2 » February 26th, 2018, 1:15 pm

The thing is that video game adaptations in general bomb. With the exception of the first Tomb Raider (speaking of which, I don't see the new one being very popular) and the first Mortal Kombat, nearly all of them have died on impact (Uwe Boll efforts) or been heavily hyped and failed to make an impact (Warcraft, Assassin's Creed).

Also, 80's nostalgia's on the way out. While Jumanji is making millions, all the "best decade ever OMG!" types have stayed home to binge on Stranger Things.
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