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Future Tracking From Exhibitors

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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Buscemi2 » November 17th, 2017, 10:26 pm

Can't see The Post doing that well. Spotlight had similar themes but only made about half that. Also, Spielberg's last one had wider appeal (as well as more marketing) and flopped.

Paddington 2 may have some difficulty due to it being a late addition to the Warner Bros. schedule but at least it's escaped the Weinstein debacle (not sure if the trailers currently running with Wonder still have the Weinstein logo or have been revised with Warner Bros. markings).

Condorito bombed in Mexico (it did a bit better in Chile, where the character hails from) so I wouldn't expect the take that Un Gallo Con Muchos Huevos had domestically.

On the other hand, I think Proud Mary does better. Taraji P. Henson scored last January with Hidden Figures and with this one being an action film opening on a holiday weekend, $70-75 million could be feasible.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » December 9th, 2017, 3:10 pm

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

12/15 Star Wars: The Last Jedi 209/675
12/15 Ferdinand 25/150

12/20 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle 28/190
12/20 The Greatest Showman 11/75
12/22 Pitch Perfect 3 34/115
12/22 Downsizing 10/59
12/22 Father Figures 7/41
12/25 All the Money in the World n/a

1/5 Insidious: The Last Key 19.5/34.5
1/5 Molly's Game (wide) 8/28

1/12 The Post (expansion) 20/90
1/12 Paddington 2 19/70
1/12 Proud Mary 17/55
1/12 The Commuter 12/31
1/12 Condorito: La Pelicula 5/12.5

1/19 12 Strong 10/36
1/19 Den of Thieves 6.5/13
1/19 Forever My Girl n/a

1/26 Maze Runner: The Death Cure 24/65

2/2 Winchester 10/28
2/2 2018 Cloverfield Movie n/a




PROS:

Although still slated for a February 2 release, Paramount and Bad Robot’s third Cloverfield film — rumored to be titled God Particle — is a major X factor for this weekend and still does not have a trailer available. That being said, 10 Cloverfield Lane famously had its trailer withheld until less than two months before release, surprising fans and leveraging strong interest and reviews into a successful $24.7 million debut and $72.1 million domestic run. If the studio plans to stick with that date, it stands to reason we’ll see a trailer very soon — likely in front of Star Wars: The Last Jedi next week.

Winchester: The House that Ghosts Built will hope to benefit from the wave of success enjoyed by many horror releases over the past few years. The genre has had its share of winners on Super Bowl weekend in the past — the most relevant comp being 2012’s The Woman In Black. Based on a true story, this could have room to do well if the Cloverfield film is delayed again.

CONS:

Overall, Super Bowl weekend can be hit or miss for new releases. Last year’s Rings opened to a lukewarm$13 million despite having some built-in fan base — although poor reviews were a major cause for its under-performance. The sporting weekend tends to be deflated (no pun intended) with many films dropping 50 to 60 percent or more from Saturday to Sunday, so it makes sense for studios to only push out films with strong appeal and/or low risk, high reward potential.

While social media activity is not relevant at this stage for the potential Cloverfield title, early buzz and trailer reactions for Winchester are modest to this point. That’s par for the course with a non-franchise film though, so it remains to be seen how trends pick up after the new year begins.

This Week’s Notes & Other Changes

Star Wars: The Last Jedi continues to track in line with recent trends. Our range for opening weekend is holding steady between $185 million and $215 million. The film’s review embargo lifts on Tuesday, December 12 at 12pm Eastern.

Ferdinand and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle continue to build strong cases as counter-programming options for families over the Christmas and New Year’s corridor. The latter is showing particularly strong signs of breaking out.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Buscemi2 » December 9th, 2017, 6:06 pm

I'm really not buying the Jumanji hype. The trailer didn't play well when I saw it shown with Wonder and though the sneak previews played well, early word's been very mixed. Lastly, the last time there was an attempt at expanding the Jumanji brand, it bombed despite positive reception.

Meanwhile, it's looking more and more like The Greatest Showman's going to flop. Seeing how it's been completely MIA in the Oscar race (as in, no one's even seen it and it opens in a week and a half), it feels like Fox is hiding a dud. Of course, that might be what happens when you hire a first-time director to take on such a big project.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby undeadmonkey » December 11th, 2017, 2:22 pm

I must agree, i just can't see the appeal of Jumanji.

Greatest Showman is getting all it's thunder taken from Pitch Perfect. Otherwise, i think it would rule the holiday season. The terrible Into the Woods made over $100M and the dreary Les Mis almost made $150M. I guess we can only have one musical per winter.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Buscemi2 » December 11th, 2017, 2:41 pm

Into the Woods was marketed out the ass and had a built-in audience from the show (people in my classes would not shut up about how great this movie was going to be). Les Miserables had a similar pedigree.

The Greatest Showman is an original story, making it difficult to compare with those two. La La Land is the best comparison but that was hot off of Whiplash. The Greatest Showman doesn't have that appeal to the non-musical crowd.

Pitch Perfect 3's buzz has been muted compared to the second film, mainly due to the downbeat nature of the trailers. The only thing really helping it is the Christmas release.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Buscemi2 » December 14th, 2017, 3:32 am

And another bad sign on The Greatest Showman: the final run time is only 105 minutes. Seeing how these big event musicals are usually over two hours, it suggests that there were some post-production issues (I seem to also recall that the score got replaced, I can't recall this ever happening to a musical after filming finished).

It's going to be interesting to find out the final budget for this. Because I have a feeling we will see tighter control on debut features if this falls flat on its face.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » December 17th, 2017, 3:39 pm

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

12/20 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle 28/210
12/20 The Greatest Showman 11/75
12/22 Pitch Perfect 3 34/115
12/22 Downsizing 10/59
12/22 Father Figures 7/41
12/25 All the Money in the World n/a/15

1/5 Insidious: The Last Key 19.5/34.5
1/5 Molly's Game (wide) 8/28

1/12 The Post (expansion) 20/90
1/12 Paddington 2 19/70
1/12 Proud Mary 17/55
1/12 The Commuter 12/31
1/12 Condorito: La Pelicula 5/12.5

1/19 12 Strong 10/36
1/19 Den of Thieves 6.5/13
1/19 Forever My Girl n/a

1/26 Maze Runner: The Death Cure 24/65

2/2 Winchester 10/28
2/2 2018 Cloverfield Movie n/a

2/9 Fifty Shades Freed 40/100
2/9 Peter Rabbit 25/103
2/9 The Hurricane Heist n/a
2/9 The 15:17 to Paris n/a



PROS:

Fifty Shades Freed will aim to tie up the trilogy with another relatively successful February run. Although earnings dipped from the first to second film, that film’s $114 million domestic pull was still reflective of a strong fan base. Opening the week before Valentine’s Day and President’s Day weekend could give this third entry a little extra leg room to aim for the $100 million total mark again.

Peter Rabbit will unite an ensemble voice cast led by James Corden in a live action adaptation of Beatrix Potter’s famous literary character that should appeal strongly to families with kids. Early box office comparisons can be made to films like 2011’s Hop and 2015’s Paddington. After January 12’s Paddington 2, there’s very little family-driven competition on the slate, giving this plenty of chance to carve out that segment of the audience.

CONS:

Diminished returns are commonplace in most franchises entering their third or later films, and we expect that trend to continue with Fifty Shades Freed. The uninitiated aren’t likely to show up in droves for the franchise finale like some did for 2015’s first film.

Peter Rabbit opens months in advance of Easter, making comparisons to 2011’s Hop a bit more of a stretch since that film had a timely holiday release. There’s also a Marvel film opening one week later — Black Panther — although that will only crossover to the older portion of Peter‘s potential target audience.


This Week’s Changes & Other Notes

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle continues to show signs of a major breakout over the stretch run of the holiday season following Amazon Prime’s exclusive member screening and early critic reactions generating very positive word of mouth.

The first trailer for Clint Eastwood’s The 15:17 to Paris (slated to open February 9) just debuted this week, so we’re holding off on forecasts until a decent interval of buzz assessment has passed.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Buscemi2 » December 17th, 2017, 3:55 pm

The Hurricane Heist was pushed to March 9th so there won't be any numbers on that until those projections come in.

Meanwhile, I believe Peter Rabbit will play more like The Emoji Movie than Annie (Will Gluck's last film, which also changed almost everything from its source material). That film looks like a disaster (and what was wrong with Beatrix Potter's story anyway?).

On the other hand, The 15:17 to Paris should play very well with the American Sniper crowd. It doesn't have the star power but I think it's got a good $70-80 million in it (a better comparison may be Act of Valor, which grossed $70 million back in 2012).
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » December 22nd, 2017, 5:44 pm

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

1/5 Insidious: The Last Key 19.5/34.5
1/5 Molly's Game (wide) 8/28

1/12 The Post (expansion) 20/90
1/12 Paddington 2 19/70
1/12 Proud Mary 17/55
1/12 The Commuter 12/31
1/12 Condorito: La Pelicula 5/12.5

1/19 12 Strong 13/42
1/19 Den of Thieves 6.5/13
1/19 Forever My Girl n/a

1/26 Maze Runner: The Death Cure 24/65

2/2 Winchester 10/28
2/2 2018 Cloverfield Movie n/a

2/9 Fifty Shades Freed 40/100
2/9 Peter Rabbit 25/103
2/9 The 15:17 to Paris 16/50
2/9 The Hurricane Heist n/a

2/16 Black Panther 90/275
2/16 Early Man 4/20
2/16 Samson 3.5/13




Black Panther
Disney / Marvel Studios


PROS:

Marvel Studios’ unprecedented winning streak at the box office is the first obvious advantage that comes to mind as mastermind Kevin Feige and the teams under Disney’s banner have shepherded all 17 previous films in the saga to #1 openings and massive box office earnings.

The character’s introduction in Captain America: Civil War was warmly received by fans, giving those unfamiliar with the character’s history in the comics some familiarity going into his first standalone film.

Writer/Director Ryan Coogler has garnered critical and audience acclaim for his work on Creed and Fruitvale Station, offering further encouragement and interest in how he’ll handle his first big-budget film.

As the first tentpole comic book adaptation from Marvel or any other major studio to star an African-American lead (excluding 2008’s Hancock) — not to mention a predominately African-American cast — this film has already become a milestone. If strong reviews and word of mouth follow, it could hit the cultural zeitgeist in a similar way as Wonder Woman did last summer.

Opening over Presidents Day weekend will afford the opportunity for families to boost attendance on Sunday. If everything fires on all cylinders, a $100 million+ opening weekend wouldn’t be out of the question.

Trailer reactions have been very strong from fans and casual viewers alike, while early social media tracking positions Black Panther well ahead of the Twitter and Facebook activity levels Doctor Strange was generating at the same point before release. Given the latter film’s huge success — and that it was Marvel’s most recent origin story with a character never before seen on screen — we’re expecting a similar run for Panther even on the conservative end of possibilities if the final product wows audiences.

This is essentially the only tentpole release on the 2018 calendar until March. Competition will be minimal for the majority of its run.

Following a year filled to the brim with critically and commercially successful superhero films in 2017, audiences are clearly still hungry for the genre when the right film comes along.


CONS:

Social media buzz hasn’t reached the levels of Wonder Woman yet, although that’s hardly anything to be concerned about as DC and Marvel films often diverge in pre-release tracking trends.

It would be unreasonable to expect *every* Marvel film to shatter box office expectations, particularly one with very little established on-screen history for the character in question. While the studio’s Ant-Man ($180 million domestic) could be a fair barometer for low-end box office expectations, we think buzz around Panther is strong enough to warrant more bullish forecasts at this time.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby undeadmonkey » December 24th, 2017, 7:58 pm

It should easily hit $100M
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » January 6th, 2018, 12:21 pm

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

1/12 The Post (expansion) 17.5/100
1/12 Paddington 2 16.5/61
1/12 Proud Mary 16/40
1/12 The Commuter 11.5/30

1/19 12 Strong 13/42
1/19 Den of Thieves 6.5/13

1/26 Maze Runner: The Death Cure 24/65

2/2 Winchester 10/28

2/9 Fifty Shades Freed 40/100
2/9 Peter Rabbit 25/103
2/9 The 15:17 to Paris 16/50
2/9 The Hurricane Heist n/a

2/16 Black Panther 90/275
2/16 Early Man 4/20
2/16 Samson 3.5/13

2/23 Game Night 17/55
2/23 Annihilation 15/50
2/23 War with Grandpa n/a

3/2 Red Sparrow 26/84
3/2 Death Wish 13.5/34




PROS:

Annihilation will hope to mark the next sci-fi success from director Alex Garland (Ex Machina). The book’s fans and strong marketing will be key components to driving opening weekend, with the hope that staying power will follow. If everything fires on all cylinders, a run similar to Arrival isn’t out of the question.

Game Night stands as one of the best options for a sleeper comedy hit during the early part of the year, a goal that would be aided by stars Jason Bateman and Rachel McAdams.

Death Wish will appeal to fans of the original series as well as Bruce Willis’ own audience, potentially making it a solid counter-programmer against Red Sparrow in early March.

Red Sparrow‘s source material gives the film built-in awareness among fans, while star Jennifer Lawrence and director Francis Lawrence (three Hunger Games films, I Am Legend) further bolster potential for a strong adult-oriented thriller.


CONS:

In general, buzz for these new releases is (unsurprisingly) muted at this stage despite varying degrees of star names and existing brand power. This is typical early in the year as holiday holdovers and award season candidates dominate the immediate attention of most moviegoers. Future marketing in the coming months will be crucial toward determining which ones successfully counter-program and win over adult audiences.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Buscemi2 » January 6th, 2018, 1:11 pm

I'm thinking that Red Sparrow's going to do a lot less than $84 million. Jennifer Lawrence mania has died off considerably in recent years (it seems only the die-hards will defend mother! and the creepy male fans will defend Passengers) and the similar Atomic Blonde disappointed after the pre-release hype. In addition, I haven't seen anything for it.

Death Wish looks like it won't do anything. The film's been pushed once and I have a feeling Eli Roth's made something that will do more to offend than entertain.

Game Night looks like a flop. The trailers don't really do anything and I have to wonder what compelled Rachel McAdams to play such a seemingly moronic character.

Meanwhile, I think the January 12th films that aren't The Post are being underestimated. It's a holiday weekend and with most everything that's not Jumanji dying off or about to, there's going to be some interest for new product. Meanwhile, no way The Post outgrosses Bridge of Spies or The BFG. The thing's not going to play in conservative markets where they think the First Amendment only covers their right to be an asshole.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » January 13th, 2018, 11:50 am

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

1/19 12 Strong 14/45
1/19 Den of Thieves 6.5/13

1/26 Maze Runner: The Death Cure 24/65

2/2 Winchester 10/28

2/9 Fifty Shades Freed 40/100
2/9 Peter Rabbit 19/78
2/9 The 15:17 to Paris 16/50
2/9 The Hurricane Heist n/a

2/16 Black Panther 120/335
2/16 Early Man 4/20
2/16 Samson 3.5/13

2/23 Game Night 17/55
2/23 Annihilation 15/50
2/23 War with Grandpa n/a
2/23 Every Day n/a

3/2 Red Sparrow 26/84
3/2 Death Wish 13.5/34

3/9 A Wrinkle in Time 52/154
3/9 Strangers: Prey at Night 4/8.5
3/9 Gringo 3/7.5
3/9 The Upside n/a
3/9 The Hurricane Heist n/a



A Wrinkle In Time
Disney


PROS:

Disney has plenty of experience churning out blockbuster hits these days. For the most part, their efforts in the live action adaptation/remake category have proven highly successful. Early trailers indicate this could be another widely appealing entry in that vein thanks to built-in awareness of the source material — not to mention a generally wide open late winter/early spring market with minimal competition.

Reese Witherspoon, Oprah Winfrey, Mindy Kaling, and Chris Pine offer plenty of combined star power to aid appeal among adults/parents.

Director Ava DuVernay is fresh off wide acclaim for her work behind the camera on 2014’s Selma. As the first black female director to helm a film with a $100 million+ budget — and in tandem with the strong cast of female leads — this film will be generating timely attention upon release. If strong word of mouth follows, a North American run closer to $200 million wouldn’t be out of the question.

CONS:

Initial social media buzz isn’t quite as fervent as it was for the likes of 2015’s Cinderella remake or 2014’s Maleficent. Still, Facebook activity is notably ahead of where 2016’s Pete’s Dragon stood at the same point before release.

Madeleine L’Engle’s original novel may not be as widely in demand for the big screen treatment — or as popular among today’s target younger audiences — compared to some of Disney’s recent adaptations and remakes or blockbuster young adult fare like The Hunger Games. Strong reviews and a widely appealing final product could change that status quo, though.


This Week’s Other Notes

Black Panther‘s initial presales blew past mid-range expectations earlier this week. While caution remains prudent as fans rush to grab tickets for the hotly anticipated Marvel film, the film’s current sales activity combined with a surge of social media momentum now has the it definitively tracking closer to our high-end expectations.

Peter Rabbit continues to display very healthy social media trends leading up to next month’s opening. With the growing potential of Black Panther, though, early tracking has shifted to be more conservative on the family-driven film.

The Hurricane Heist is set to open March 9, although we’re withholding forecasts until a trailer is available.

The Upside is likewise slated for March 9, however, we’re holding off on forecasts due to the lack of a trailer and current ambiguity about its release strategy under the Weinstein Company banner.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » January 20th, 2018, 12:35 pm

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

1/26 Maze Runner: The Death Cure 23/59

2/2 Winchester 11.5/31

2/9 Fifty Shades Freed 40/100
2/9 Peter Rabbit 19/78
2/9 The 15:17 to Paris 15/47

2/16 Black Panther 120/335
2/16 Early Man 4/20
2/16 Samson 3.5/13

2/23 Game Night 17/55
2/23 Annihilation 15/50
2/23 War with Grandpa n/a
2/23 Every Day n/a

3/2 Red Sparrow 26/84
3/2 Death Wish 13.5/34

3/9 A Wrinkle in Time 52/154
3/9 Strangers: Prey at Night 4/8.5
3/9 Gringo 3/7.5
3/9 The Upside n/a
3/9 The Hurricane Heist n/a

3/16 Tomb Raider 22/55
3/16 Love Simon 13/40




PROS:

Tomb Raider marks the third big screen treatment for the video game property and essentially serves as a reboot of the cinematic side of the franchise made famous by Angelina Jolie. Recasting with Oscar winner Alicia Vikander has fans optimistic, and the rise of female-driven action films could be a boon to a success here if reception is strong.

Love, Simon will court teen and young adult crowds, anchored by fans of Becky Albertalli’s novel, Simon vs. the Homo Sapiens Agenda. The film’s strong messages could resonate with a variety of youthful moviegoers, making this a sleeper candidate to watch out for.


CONS:

Initial social media buzz for Tomb Raider is modest at this stage (falling more in line with the likes of Atomic Blonde and the Resident Evil franchise), while the recent history of video game adaptations points to conservative box office expectations.

With the recent breakout of Wonder being an exception, the proliferation of young adult-targeted book adaptations has led to some burnout in the genre, as seen by the likes of modest (but still very profitable) performers like Everything, Everything and Paper Towns. That said, it’s far too early to write anything in stone for Love, Simon.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Buscemi2 » January 20th, 2018, 6:58 pm

I have a feeling Love, Simon's going to flop. The trailer got a great reaction before The Greatest Showman but it's not going to fly with a mainstream audience.

To be honest, $20 million would be a surprise.
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