2024-25 Full Year Slates

[Chienfantome]

Here's the thread for the results of our year-long draft game. I'll update it weekly (or so).
As usual, if you see any error in your slate, tell me and I'll fix it. Good luck to you all.

Banks
7/5 MaXXXine (9)
7/10 Fly Me To The Moon (5)
7/17 Twisters (3)
8/23 The Forge (8)
10/18 Smile 2 (4)
10/25 Terrifier 3 (7)
11/27 Moana 2 (1)
12/25 Nosferatu (6)
2/14 Captain America Brave New World (2)
The Apprentice (10)
We Live in Time (11)
SNL 1975 (12)

Chien
6/7 Bad Boys Ride or Die (3)
7/3 Despicable Me 4 (1)
8/9 Borderlands (5)
9/27 Never Let Go (8)
11/1 Conclave (11)
11/8 The Best Christmas Pageant Ever (7)
11/15 Red One (2)
12/13 Kraven the Hunter (4)
4/11 The Amateur (9)
Juror #2 (6)
Spider-Man Beyond the Spiderverse (10)
Good Fortune (12)

Ron B
5/24 Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (2)
5/31 Young Woman and the Sea (11)
6/21 Kinds of Kindness (8)
8/2 Harold and the Purple Crayon (6)
8/23 The Crow (7)
9/27 Lee (10)
9/27 The Wild Robot (4)
10/4 Joker: Folie à Deux (1)
11/15 Here (5)
12/13 The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (3)
12/25 Better Man (9)
Eddington (12)

Screen
7/12 Longlegs (8)
7/12 Sing Sing (10)
8/9 Trap (5)
8/9 Colleen Hoover's It Ends With Us (4)
8/9 Cuckoo (12)
8/23 Blink Twice (6)
9/6 Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (1)
12/20 Sonic the Hedgehog (3)
1/31 Dog Man (7)
3/21 Alto Knights (9)
4/3 Minecraft (2)
Companion (11)

Six
5/10 Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (3)
7/3 Possum Trot (8)
7/26 Deadpool and Wolverine (1)
9/20 Wolfs (4)
10/4 White Bird (9)
10/18 Nickel Boys (10)
12/6 Nightbitch (12)
1/17 In the Grey (6)
3/21 Snow White (2)
4/11 Drop (WW)
4/17 Michael (5)
Blitz (7)

Spectre
6/7 The Watchers (6)
6/21 The Bikeriders (8)
6/28 Horizon: An American Saga - Chapter 1 (3)
8/16 Horizon: An American Saga - Chapter 2 (4)
8/30 They Listen (7)
9/13 Speak No Evil (5)
11/27 Wicked: Part One (2)
12/20 Mufasa: The Lion King (1)
Megalopolis (9)
Final Destination: Bloodlines (10)
Untitled Jordan Peele Movie (11)
Dear Santa (12)

Tranny
5/3 The Fall Guy (3)
6/28 A Quiet Place - Day One (2)
9/20 Transformers One (4)
10/11 Piece by Piece (10)
10/18 A Real Pain (12)
11/22 Gladiator 2 (1)
1/17 Wolf Man (5)
1/17 Levon's Trade (8)
2/7 With Love (7)
The Killer's Game (WW)
Klara and the Sun (9)
Mother Mary (11)

Undeadmonkey
5/17 IF (2)
5/17 Back to Black (7)
5/24 The Garfield Movie (1)
5/31 Summer Camp (5)
8/16 Alien Romulus (3)
8/30 Reagan (10)
1/31 Mickey 17 (4)
4/4 Fast X Part 2 (8)
4/18 The Passion of the Christ: Resurrection (6)
Legally Blonde 3 (9)
Huntington (11)
Riddick: Furya (12)

Walleye
5/3 Tarot (8)
5/17 The Strangers - Chapter 1 (9)
6/14 Inside Out 2 (1)
10/25 Venom: The Last Dance (2)
1/17 Paddington in Peru (5)
2/14 The Smurfs Movie (4)
3/7 Untitled Ryan Coogler Film (3)
3/14 Novocaine (6)
3/28 The Woman in the Yard (WW)
Eden (7)
The Strangers - Chapter 2 (10)
The Strangers - Chapter 3 (11)

[numbersix]

Right, let's see who has a strong slate.

I certainly like Screen. Minecraft was a major risk but if it opens in April it could be the next MArio Bros. Sonic 3 should be reliable. Beetlejuice 2 may not make it past $150m. And Trap could do well as the response to the trailer was strong.

On the other hand, Walleye's slate beyond his #1 and #2 picks are full of risks. The Coogler/Jordan film could be huge but it's hard to tell at this early stage. In fact if it does look good it could be moved to the summer. The Strangers trilogy may not see theatrical releases for the sequels. Power Ballad could just end up on Apple. Lots of upsides to these choices, but so many unknowns too.

Also risky is Spectre with his two Horizon features. But I suspect they'll overperform. And with Mufasa that makes for an exciting slate.

Reigning champ Tranny has a solid slate, and all of his TBA films have a good chance of coming out in the next year. A Quiet Place Day One should do big numbers, but Gladiator 2 is a tough call.

[Buscemi2]

I haven't seen a thing for The Strangers: Chapter 1. I've seen more things for Sight, which opens a week later, and that one probably won't even hit $10 million.

And I really don't get why they made a Beetlejuice sequel now. It feels like the only audience is people who grew up with the first film and Jenna Ortega isn't a box office draw. It might have that It release date but I don't even think it hits $100 million.

[Chienfantome]

I have a really hard time deciding which slates are more promising this year.

Tranny has probably the more balanced and solid slate, I'd say, even if there may not be a breakout hit like he had the last couple of years, but it's solid all over his slate.
I like Spectre's slate too. The Horizon movies should do fine, The Watchers and Speak no Evil are two thrillers that should make decent numbers, and Mufasa should be big. And he's got Wicked, could be huge, could be not that huge, who knows.

Banks and Ron have a solid Top 4, but beyond that, I'm not sure.

Screen has a risky slate. Beetlejuice wasn't a boxoffice juggernaut in the 80's, and it's almost 40 years old, I'm not sure the nostalgia will be strong enough to make it a real round 1 pick. And Minecraft is far away, could breakout, but it's risky for round 2. Sonic, Trap and Blink Twice are my favorite picks, they felt at the right time.

Six, even though Michael is far away and only has two weeks for a round 5 pick, and Snow White is a question mark for round 2, it's pretty solid in the first 6 rounds, but beyond that, I don't see anything breaking out. But you should do much better than last year !

Walleye, the first 3 rounds are promising, but beyond that, I'm not sure. Smurfs feel like it's from another time, Paddington has never really made much, and all those Strangers films won't make anything, probably, and probably won't be released in theaters beyond the first. I suspect you'll be the one with the most changes needed on the WW.

Finally, UDM, you made the most shocking move of the whole draft by picking Garfield in round 1. I still haven't recovered from that. Bold, man. I don't think I would have touched it before round 4. You don't have an easy slate, IF is the film that looks most solid on paper, but it's gonna be tough with several films, Legally Blonde, Riddick, Fast X that you'll probably have to replace.

[Buscemi2]

Based on the trailer, I think Blink Twice will be a rare flop for Tatum. It looks like every other ensemble dark comedy in the past decade and if Tatum wasn't in it, it would be one of those instantly forgotten indie comedies that puts quirk ahead of substance.

Also, does every comedy now have to feel like an extended episode of a cable series?

[transformers2]

Banks' Top 5 picks are all really solid, but I think the ceiling is very low for the bulk of his picks in the second half. Still, if those top 5 hit, it really won't matter if everything else caps out at $5-30 mil.

Six is in a similar camp, although I do think that Blitz and Possum Trot could perform nicely.

Chien's slate is generally pretty solid with a nice mix of high floor IP (Despicable Me 4, Bad Boys: Ride or Die, Borderlands) and late round sleepers (The Best Christmas Pageant Ever, Never Let Go, although in case you weren't aware I wasn't a fan of the Red One pick in the 2nd.

Spectre is the top wild card of the bunch. How the Horizon films, Wicked, Speak No Evil and The Watchers fare could be the difference between a 1st and 7th place finish.

Ron should be in pretty good shape with Joker, Furiosa and War of Rohirrirm. Majority of the remainder of his slate are total crapshoots, but The WIld Robot, Harold and the Purple Crayon and The Crow could go onto find sizable audiences.

Screen probably has my favorite slate. Unlike many of us, I'm all in on the Beetlejuice Beetlejuice selection at the top and think it has a real shot to be a top 3 movie for the season. Beyond that, Sonic 3 is a terrific 3rd round selection, Longlegs has some intriguing upside for an 8th round pick and the It Ends with Us/Trap/Blink Twice run in rounds 4-6 could prove to be a great one if things break their way in August. Minecraft is a huge risk given its release date, but it will undoubtedly pay off if it keeps its date.

Walleye's slate featured some picks I loved (Inside Out 2, Venom) and dice rolls that made me wince (Eden, Ryan Coogler's Vampire Movie) but his reluctant selection of the Strangers trilogy was the hardest I laughed in the entire draft.

UDM, I'll be honest with you pal, I was absolutely baffled by your approach every step of the way, but maybe IF, Alien: Romulus and Garfield can exceed expectations.

[Buscemi2]

After the results of Boy Kills World, I'd be surprised if The Crow even hit $20 million total. Skarsgard isn't a box office draw, the character has been tainted by various terrible film sequels, and the trailer makes it look like another John Wick ripoff. August is going to be awful for Lionsgate.

[Screen203]

I've seen a fair amount of marketing, both in-theater and out, for The Strangers: Chapter One. I think it could over-perform this weekend and get close to 15 m, especially considering the lack of successful horror this year. How the sequels do (and if they even get theatrical releases) will depend on WOM, though.

IF and/or Garfield seem like potential breakouts, considering the lack of competition for families before Inside Out/Despicable Me. The family/animated releases following those two before Wicked (which is a wild card as well, IMO) seem a lot iffier to me; in particular, Harold And The Purple Crayon seems like a flop in the making.

I'm not sure Blink Twice will be a hit, but I do feel like it will do better than Fly Me To The Moon, which (though it should do better than this) reminds me of the notorious bomb Aloha from about a decade ago.

I would have said that there's no way The Crow goes below 20 m in total, but the Hellboy reboot did, so I would say it's certainly possible. For the other August Lionsgate release (Borderlands), I feel like it will have a decent opening weekend (20-25 m), but collapse afterwards.

As for Beetlejuice Beetlejuice I'm pretty convinced that it gross at least 200 m, in part due to the success of the musical and Wednesday on Netflix. For my first pick, I was deciding in between that, Joker, and Minecraft - I feel like Beetlejuice has the lowest ceiling of those three, but the highest floor.

The release on my slate I'm the most concerned with is Companion. While Cuckoo and Sing Sing likely won't gross much, and Minecraft and Dog Man could be delayed, the potential upside on the latter two was enough for me to take them. My issue with Companion is that I'm not sure it will be released theatrically, and it (hopefully not, but you never know) may not be released at all, considering the turmoil at Warner Bros.

[Buscemi2]

I don't even think The Strangers opens to $5 million. Prey at Night, greenlighted on the first film's cult following, made less than $25 million total in the US and that was a direct prequel to the original. Also, Renny Harlin hasn't directed a hit in this century (unless you count Skiptrace's success in China).

The success of Mean Girls on Broadway didn't help its adaptation at the box office. I can't see the Beetlejuice musical helping Beetlejuice Beetlejuice. Besides, I'm sure those who saw the musical both had seen the original and were going to see Beetlejuice Beetlejuice anyway. And as I said earlier, Jenna Ortega is not an excuse to go see a movie. The Scream movies did well because of name recognition, the breakout of X, a minor flop once the ad and DCP budget is added in, was Mia Goth, and most everything else is forgettable streaming titles and a Lionsgate dump. Wednesday was more of a hit for Tim Burton and the Wednesday Addams character than for Random Scream Actor #21. If Ortega has fans, they're liking staying home.

And though Fly Me to the Moon does indeed remind me of Aloha, I think it's an easier bet than Blink Twice. Space movies usually tend to do well. A lot of Greg Berlanti's TV shows did well. Audiences like Channing Tatum treading familiar ground. And Fly Me to the Moon hasn't had the controversy of Aloha and isn't being sold as a comeback from a past-their-prime director. You don't have expectations from a movie from the guy who did Life as We Know It. People had expectations from a Cameron Crowe movie.

[undeadmonkey]

If was maybe an iffy pick, guess we'll find out this weekend. No one thought quiet place was going to make almost $200m. So the prospect of picking a prequel helmed by someone else or an original by the guy who made a quiet place good in the first place. I liked my chances with the later.


As for Garfield, I could be completely off my rockers, but inside out 2 has had a very muted response by my kids and in theaters and to be fair minions and all other 6 surefire hits had been picked by then.

I suppose looking at the later picks, venom might have been a safer pick or apes. But avatar wasn't a safe pick either. Safe picks are boring

[Chienfantome]

Standings (up until 5/13)

Here are the first standings for our 2024/25 yearly draft !
Six takes the lead thanks to the solid launch of the new Apes movie, which made more in one weekend than Fall Guy made in 10 days. Tarot is making pretty much what we expected from it, not a lot. UDM enters the dance next weekend with IF. Banks and Screen will have to wait until July to appear here, but don’t you worry guys, because last year, Tranny only entered the game in late July with… Barbie. And we know in which spot he finished the game.

1. Six - $58,400,788 (1 film - Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes)
2. Tranny - $49,696,520 (1 film - The Fall Guy)
3. Walleye - $11,965,748 (1 film - Tarot)
UDM (first film opening 5/17)
Ron (first film opening 5/24)
Chien (first film opening 6/7)
Spectre (first film opening (6/7)
Banks (first film opening 7/5)
Screen (first film opening 7/12)

5/17
IF (UDM, 2nd round)
Back to Black (UDM, 7th round)
The Strangers Chapter 1 (Walleye, 9th round)

5/24
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (Ron, 2nd round)
The Garfield Movie (UDM, 1st round)

5/31
Summer Camp (UDM, 5th round)
Young Woman and the Sea (Ron, 11th round)

6/7
Bad Boys Ride or Die (Chien, 3rd round)
The Watchers (Spectre, 6th round)

[numbersix]

I vote for a rule change.

We finish this game early. End of May.

Agreed?

[Chienfantome]

Denied

[Walleye413]

Interesting analysis on the slates from above. I thought this was a tough year to draft. Still feeling the effects of the strike made for a very top heavy draft - with lots of movies falling into the iffy-zone. (It's like the friend-zone, only worse.)
Still, I like my first three picks and I'm banking on those. After that, I'm hoping I get lucky with a break out or two. I had four films do less than 20 million last year, so if Tarot and the other junk I grabbed gets close to that I'll feel pretty good. I so desperately want The Strangers trilogy to work out so I can pretend like I wanted that all along Might be my favorite three picks in any draft of all time!
But if not - hello Waiver Wire!

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I vote for a rule change.

We finish this game early. End of May.

Agreed?

Ironically, UDM would probably win then