A third way through the Season, and it's time for me to begin taking stock:
...Yeah, that could've gone better.
[11.] Let's begin with "UglyDolls" (5/3/19), one of the more recognizable late-Round titles, one I snapped up just so SOMEONE could say they had: I initially hoped for $18M, then quickly set my sights lower, to $14M. It closed, rather gratefully it seemed, after scarcely two months with $20,150,241, a bad idea poorly executed, and one of the all-time worst-performing computer-animated films EVER -- right around "Mars Needs Mom's" which single-handedly annihilated ANY chance of there EVER being a well-financed "Bloom County", Opus the Penguin, or Bill the Cat theatrical adaptation. Sure, it out-performed both of my VERY NOMINAL projections for the release... And I sure will be needing every dollar of that $2.15M overage. Hell, it might not even outleg the "Playmobil" movie -- and that looks like a bag of smashed assholes.
[13.] My third-favorite theatrical release of the year so far, "The Biggest Little Farm" (5/10/19), finally concluded its harvest this past week -- after three and a half months in theaters, including an odd little re-releases six weeks in -- and, you know, I nailed this one pretty well: $4,366,949, off a $4M prediction. Fair enough for this game, but, DAMN, this film deserved better -- it's one of the best documentaries I've ever seen, and hands-down one of the most engaging, uplifting, intellectually stimulating, emotionally resonant, affirming experiences I've ever had in a movie theater. This should have been a DisneyNature release, on Earth Day. Anyway, probably this "Little" gem -- which I hope to see nominated for Best Documentary Film by The Academy next year -- will do down as being my favorite pick of this Season's draft in spite of its ridiculously small earnings; I feel good about myself for having championed this doc, and hope a few of y'all managed to see it on a big screen... The cinematography is SO worth it.
[12.] ...And, then, there's Maude: Who would have guessed, in the same month that "Game of Thrones" returned, as fantasy is FINALLY getting the recognition it deserves in the popular culture, a film about J.R.R. "Tolkien" (5/10/19), fairly well-promoted and with such a built-in fanbase, would CRATER, the Scourge of the cineplex? Good Gandalf. I put it at $16M, but its dwarfish haul of $4,535,154 -- eclipsing "Biggest Little Farm", sure, but, still -- wiped out my minimal excesses from those first two releases, and put me in the hole against my pre-Season estimates to the tune of $10M and more; not a lot, it's true, but when you're wringing the limp end of the towel like I am, this year, every kopek matters. I saw the movie; it ignored its subject's Christianity entirely, which no doubt contributed to the sensational shrug audiences of faith gave at its release; perhaps worse still, no Inklings! What a freaking disaster. A PHENOMENAL, "Theory of Everything"-esque telling of the great Man's life might have resulted in $60-$70M; this was anything but. A hobbit-sized outcome for a bad, unworthy, deeply disappointing pick.
[14.] ...At least "The Dead Don't Die" (6/14/19) didn't stiff me. I admit: I had higher hopes for this all-star (in front of the camera AND behind) lark than what I admitted to ($4M); I REALLY wanted it to be one of those quirky little pics that somehow catches fire and doesn't know when to stop, like "Zombieland", or "Napoleon Dynamite", or "The End of the World". Didn't happen -- it was here and gone so fast, I didn't even get around to seeing it in theaters, sadly -- but its $6,563,605 in earnings took SOME of the sting out of the doomed "Tolkien", and helped me claw back to only about $7.5M in the red (against my original performance prognostications for my admittedly shoestring slate). I had much bigger aspirations -- stated, and unsaid -- however, for...
[9.] "Midsommar" (7/3/19). Rather modestly, perhaps even a bit superstitiously, I pegged what I earnestly thought might be "Hereditary"'s successor and heir at $23M, but, privately, I was hoping for $60M or higher -- maybe even nine digits, if it turned out to be all I'd heard it would be. And, you know, it was quite well-executed at that... But it just seemed to MISS, somehow, in spite of all it had to recommend it. Now, it's still going at $26,883,471, but it won't ring out above $29M: Closing my deficit to a bare three million dollars or so, perhaps, and clearly establishing that my initial projections for my slate weren't totally unrealistic -- but I'm gaining no ground, really, and running out of potential sleepers FAST. Fortunately, I had a VERY well-established brand coming up, right around the corner, to close my Summer with at least one sure-fire hit release...
[6.] "Dora and the Lost City of Gold" (8/9/19, originally 7/31/19).
So, here's the thing: It's actually a pretty good film, faithful to its source material, clever, and even a touch surprising; but it's ten years too late. Had this film been released in, say, 2007, I've no doubt it would have been the "Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle" of its time; but, with $51,262,483 in the bank so far coming off the Labor Day weekend, probably it's going to end up right around $60M or so -- not such a long way off from my original thought of $65M, or my revised (after its date change) forecast of $70M, even; but I'm losing ground, again, wasting a sixth-round pick (my highest yet on the calendar) on a very mediocre result. My next title, at least, had the great Fortune of being my very last pick, and, therefore, could not possibly disappoint, right?
[16.] ...Well... I'll be honest; I didn't expect to see this one fall to me. "Where'd You Go, Bernadette?" (8/9/19) has been rumored for three seasons and more; and its pedigree -- bestselling book, stellar cast, legendary director -- was pretty impeccable. I didn't think it could shallow $16M, but it will -- at $8,390,839, after several weeks of release, with no meaningful awards-season buzz and its advertising budget depleted, it's not going to hit $12M, and still, I sink. At least this one didn't cost me a top-ten pick -- and my fifth selection, the sequel to an improbable hit a few years back, couldn't POSSIBLY miss, right? Eh, piggy?
[5.] "The Angry Birds Movie 2" (8/14/19). ...I mean, God DAMN it! The original film is perhaps the movie I loathe most, but there was no denying its performance... [Sigh] At $35,741,056, it's probably got no more than $10M, maybe $12M left -- and even that might be a stretch, a good long way off from the $73M I'd assumed. I now stand a good $50M, give or take, under my slate's early hoped-for performance, and I'm going to need to squeeze every last nickel out of EVERY release from here on out to have a prayer of $1B... I could easily end up below $800M, if "Last Blood", ",Terminator", "Midway", and "Onward" ALL manage to underperform, or shit the bed entirely. And, He'll, I'm not even certain "Margie Claus" is going to be released!
...So, yeah. I'm giving myself a C-, so far, and I think that's being generous.
How 'bout you?
--Nico.