Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)
Posted: May 6th, 2019, 4:27 pm
[Edit 1: 5/7/19 ("UglyDolls"; "Dora and the Lost City of Gold"; "Rambo: Last Blood"; "The Call of the Wild")]
I thought it would be fun to see how my own estimates of my slate's potential were borne out -- fulfilled, or failed -- over the course of the year ahead. Want to join me? Naturally, I'll be refining my thoughts as the Season progresses, and I likely drop some titles and (hopefully) add relacements. Opinions and contentions welcomed, of course. I will justify my prognostications, if I can.
[11.] "UglyDolls" (5/3/19): $14M (revised downward from $18M). Obviously, I was hoping for better: Maybe $11M, $11.5M to open, and a leg-out to the low $30Ms. Ain't gonna happen -- This is about to sink lower than Boeing stocks. This was a bad idea all the way around. I was a retailer at the beginning, and early height, of the "UglyDolls" mini-craze; the time for someone to adapt this into a quasi-successful media property was five, six years ago, and that should have been a television show. But, I figured: Hey, it's the 11th Round. If it does $30M, it's worth it. Plenty of stinkers in the last third of the draft; and I saw no "The Mule" on the horizon, this season. Well, it didn't, and it probably wasn't. So, I guess I've made my epic error for this Season. [Edited to add: Looking at "UglyDolls"'s monster 85% drop on its first Monday, I have to assume it's already made 2/3rds of its eventual box-office total; therefore, I'm rounding it down by $4M. What a freaking disaster.]
ACTUAL EARNINGS: $20,150,241 (+$2,150,241, or +11.95% against original prediction)
[13.] "The Biggest Little Farm" (5/10/19): $4M. Okay, I have to admit: On this one, I broke my own rule -- DON'T GET EMOTIONAL ABOUT PICKS! But I just LOVE this production, from soup to nuts. It's a passion pick, but, let's be honest: Even with a BIG roll-out, it ain't going to be the next "March of the Penguins", or, "Winged Migration", and it won't do the sort of numbers DisneyNature films do... And even those tend to underperform my estimates. A better time to release this, of course, would have been either in the first quarter of the year, or at the holidays, or for Earth Day... It's likely to get rolled over in ANY Summer moviegoing season, even those that aren't dominated by the biggest film in history. But I have seen it wow audiences and critics and festival panels, so, let's see if this "Little" movie can overindex. I'll be over the moon if it can crack $10M.
[12.] "Tolkien" (5/10/19): $16M. Another passion pick, to be honest: I'm a huge JRRT fan, and I've been following this production closely. That being said, it's a REALLY wide release for such a niche product, I haven't seen much of conventional marketing for it, and word out of the production has been conflicted. Can "Tolkien" capitalize on the current pop-culture obsession with "Game of Thrones"? I just don't know. Fox Searchlight can pull off some amazing feats of marketing... But is Disney even trying? Because to the average moviegoer, this release is about as well-advertised as The Council of Elrond. As with all things, we shall see.
ACTUAL EARNINGS: $4,535,154 (-$15,464,846, or -71.65% against original prediction)
[14.] "The Dead Don't Die" (6/14/19): $4M. Great cast, good previews, and a studio that knows how to market niche / offbeat / cross-genre productions; you'd think I'd be more bullish on this title, and, in fact, I do think it could break out some, at least to the tune of $18M or so... But it could also very well be the next "Captive State", a film I was pretty high on. I figure anything over $10M is a 'win' in this late a Round.
[9.] "Midsommar" (7/3/19): $23M. I REALLY want to think this highly-touted film -- I've been hearing great things about it for well over a year -- is the next "Hereditary" (a film I thought might be good for $60M+ last Season, but which made $44M)... But it could be the next "It Comes at Night" ($14M). A24 has such a spotty record, I just can't predict this one. Put it this way: I'll be seeing it. I just don't know if anyone else will.
[Edited 5/7/19] [6.] "Dora and the Lost City of Gold" (8/9/19, originally 7/31/19): $70M (original prediction: $65M). I've been more impressed by the trailer and other marketing material than I thought I would be, considering this is a property a good ten years past its prime that is being aged-up to appeal to a teenaged audience a few years too young for "Tomb Raider". Frankly, I wonder if THIS film's audience even exists; but it's a known franchise coming out a few weeks before kids go back to school, and I hope it can strike some of the same fire as the recent "Jumanji" reboot. I figure there's a range from $45M to $85M on this pic... So, I'm splitting the difference and hoping for the best, and counting on Swiper not stealing my box office. [Edited to add: Since "Artemis Fowl" has migrated to next May, I think it's more likely "Dora" will navigate her way to a decent box-office performance... even though it loses ten days of Summer in the process. So, I've added $5M to its projected ticket sales.]
[16.] "Where'd You Go, Bernadette?" (8/9/19): $16M. It's the adaptation of a VERY critically acclaimed novel, the cast is huge, and Richard Linklater seems due for a hit. That being said, this could be a MASSIVE bust, and its full-year delay is concerning. On the other paw, it's my last pick of the draft, so, I'll consider pretty much anything a success. I do suspect that if this film was going to be an awards-season contender, it would be released much later in the year.
[5.] "The Angry Birds Movie 2" (8/14/19): $73M. This sequel to the improbable (in my estimation) hit has late Summer practically to itself in its market space: I can't see "The PLAYMOBIL Movie" doing all that much better than "UglyDolls", and "Spies in Disguise", another release I think could misfire badly, doesn't come out for five weeks. "Dora" should be more or less played out by then, and I don't know how much impact Disney's potential franchise-starter "Artemis Fowl" is going to have, given that "Angry Birds" is made for the under-ten set. That being said: As it's being released a full two months later than the original, I don't think it's going to top $100M. I'd love to be wrong, tho.
[Edited 5/7/19] [10.] "Rambo: Last Blood" (9/20/19): $40M (original prediction: $42M). Truth be told, the "Rambo" franchise, like "Predator" and most horror properties, has only rarely lived up to its billing -- once critically, once commercially. So it's a long shot to do terribly well, but, it's possible the "Expendables" and "Creed" franchises have increased Stallone's profile ("Expendables 3" notwithstanding), and this "Last" entry in the saga of John Rambo has a couple weeks in the fall all to itself in its market space, after "Angel Has Fallen" and before a bevy of adult-oriented actioners assault cinemas in October. But I don't expect this final installment to go great guns. [Edited to add: I don't think "Ad Astra"'s date shift, announced today, is going to have much impact on "Rambo: Last Blood"... Maybe a million or so. They're both adult-oriented dramatic fare, but there's not a ton of overlap in their prospective audiences, I don't think. Accordingly, I've revised my "Rambye" estimate down only $2M.]
[7.] "The Hunt" (10/18/19): $59M. Damon Lindelof has a great track record as far as box-office revenues go, Blumhouse is only getting more respected as a production company, and Universal's Halloween entry is probably the second-biggest entry of the month (behind the "Zombieland" sequel). Word is the script's a winner, but I'm not anticipating a huge payoff, here.
[2.] "Terminator: Dark Fate" (11/1/19): $185M. My biggest gamble of this season will need to more or less resurrect the entire franchise to come close to my predictions for its performance, but I have hopes that Cameron's return to the franchise he created, as well as Linda Hamilton's, will overcome the confused mediocrity of the last several installments and bring fans back to one of modern science fiction's most impactful series. I also suspect that, as the "Avatar" sequels inch closer to their debuts under DisneyFox, there will be a broad media and marketing focus on this hoped-for trilogy-starter. But it could easily crash to the tune of $65M or so. Schwarzenegger's no draw, any more, and it remains to be seen if audiences are still invested in this sputtering saga.
[4.] "Midway" (11/8/19): $140M. Another big risk, as Roland Emmerich's star is waning after several disappointing films; and, to be honest, holiday war movies are rarely VERY financially successful. However, this remake of one of cinema's most famous World War II films has an impressive cast, good word of mouth, and the potential to be one of the few broad mature-audience entries of the last two months of the year. If it hits, it could do $50M more than my prediction, as could "Terminator: Dark Fate". I'll take that chance.
[15.] "Margie Claus" (11/15/19): $60M. IF it comes out, Melissa McCarthy's potential holiday film ought generate some ticket-office traction. The question is, WILL IT EVEN BE MADE? I figure there's not much to lose at Pick #15, and McCarthy's performance in the overindexing "Life of the Party" speaks well for her appeal as a mainstream comedic draw (and was a nice return to form after the astonishingly awful and potentially career-threatening misfire, "The Happytime Murders"). This could go higher. IF it's released.
[Edited 5/7/19] [3.] "The Call of the Wild" (2/21/20, originally 12/25/19): $82M (original prediction: $120M). Another risky proposition, but I have a good feeling about it. The source material is dynamite, and if it breaks wide, it could be a phenomenal family option once everyone sees "The Rise of Skywalker". SOME form of accessible holiday counterprogramming is going to clean up after "Star Wars" makes its billion, and I just don't see "Cats" taking ALL that business. $200M is probably out of reach, but this is another film that might perform $50M over my current predicted box office. [Edited to add: Disney's big release schedule shakeup today (5/7/19) stuck a pretty fair shiv in this film's prospects, in my opinion, and boosted those of "Spies in Disguise", which took "The Call of the Wild"'s Christmas Day release date. I cannot see Disney now investing much in terms of promotion or marketing in this rival animation studio's efforts, and have downgraded the film's prospects accordingly. Damn.]
[8.] "Run" (1/24/20): $39M. Recent January horror-action-suspense offerings have been surprisingly popular, and with good reviews and marketing, this could go higher. Still, it's a long way off, and hard to predict. If word sours on this title, it might be one for the waivers.
[1.] "Onward" (3/6/20): $360M. Clearly, this is my hope for a big potential earner: Pixar, Pratt, Holland, dragons, and the Disney marketing machine. I honestly don't see how this one misfires, and I am hearing The Mouse House has real franchise hopes for this modern fantasy... Plus, merchandising ought be robust, weirdly rare for a Pixar film. I would not be surprised to see this title clear $400M. It could also bust, but probably not worse than $300M.
Total final projected earnings: $1.189B (edited 5/7/19; original prediction: $1.225B).
Hoped-for finish in Division A: 6th or 7th (edited 5/7/19; original prediction: 6th).
I thought it would be fun to see how my own estimates of my slate's potential were borne out -- fulfilled, or failed -- over the course of the year ahead. Want to join me? Naturally, I'll be refining my thoughts as the Season progresses, and I likely drop some titles and (hopefully) add relacements. Opinions and contentions welcomed, of course. I will justify my prognostications, if I can.
[11.] "UglyDolls" (5/3/19): $14M (revised downward from $18M). Obviously, I was hoping for better: Maybe $11M, $11.5M to open, and a leg-out to the low $30Ms. Ain't gonna happen -- This is about to sink lower than Boeing stocks. This was a bad idea all the way around. I was a retailer at the beginning, and early height, of the "UglyDolls" mini-craze; the time for someone to adapt this into a quasi-successful media property was five, six years ago, and that should have been a television show. But, I figured: Hey, it's the 11th Round. If it does $30M, it's worth it. Plenty of stinkers in the last third of the draft; and I saw no "The Mule" on the horizon, this season. Well, it didn't, and it probably wasn't. So, I guess I've made my epic error for this Season. [Edited to add: Looking at "UglyDolls"'s monster 85% drop on its first Monday, I have to assume it's already made 2/3rds of its eventual box-office total; therefore, I'm rounding it down by $4M. What a freaking disaster.]
ACTUAL EARNINGS: $20,150,241 (+$2,150,241, or +11.95% against original prediction)
[13.] "The Biggest Little Farm" (5/10/19): $4M. Okay, I have to admit: On this one, I broke my own rule -- DON'T GET EMOTIONAL ABOUT PICKS! But I just LOVE this production, from soup to nuts. It's a passion pick, but, let's be honest: Even with a BIG roll-out, it ain't going to be the next "March of the Penguins", or, "Winged Migration", and it won't do the sort of numbers DisneyNature films do... And even those tend to underperform my estimates. A better time to release this, of course, would have been either in the first quarter of the year, or at the holidays, or for Earth Day... It's likely to get rolled over in ANY Summer moviegoing season, even those that aren't dominated by the biggest film in history. But I have seen it wow audiences and critics and festival panels, so, let's see if this "Little" movie can overindex. I'll be over the moon if it can crack $10M.
[12.] "Tolkien" (5/10/19): $16M. Another passion pick, to be honest: I'm a huge JRRT fan, and I've been following this production closely. That being said, it's a REALLY wide release for such a niche product, I haven't seen much of conventional marketing for it, and word out of the production has been conflicted. Can "Tolkien" capitalize on the current pop-culture obsession with "Game of Thrones"? I just don't know. Fox Searchlight can pull off some amazing feats of marketing... But is Disney even trying? Because to the average moviegoer, this release is about as well-advertised as The Council of Elrond. As with all things, we shall see.
ACTUAL EARNINGS: $4,535,154 (-$15,464,846, or -71.65% against original prediction)
[14.] "The Dead Don't Die" (6/14/19): $4M. Great cast, good previews, and a studio that knows how to market niche / offbeat / cross-genre productions; you'd think I'd be more bullish on this title, and, in fact, I do think it could break out some, at least to the tune of $18M or so... But it could also very well be the next "Captive State", a film I was pretty high on. I figure anything over $10M is a 'win' in this late a Round.
[9.] "Midsommar" (7/3/19): $23M. I REALLY want to think this highly-touted film -- I've been hearing great things about it for well over a year -- is the next "Hereditary" (a film I thought might be good for $60M+ last Season, but which made $44M)... But it could be the next "It Comes at Night" ($14M). A24 has such a spotty record, I just can't predict this one. Put it this way: I'll be seeing it. I just don't know if anyone else will.
[Edited 5/7/19] [6.] "Dora and the Lost City of Gold" (8/9/19, originally 7/31/19): $70M (original prediction: $65M). I've been more impressed by the trailer and other marketing material than I thought I would be, considering this is a property a good ten years past its prime that is being aged-up to appeal to a teenaged audience a few years too young for "Tomb Raider". Frankly, I wonder if THIS film's audience even exists; but it's a known franchise coming out a few weeks before kids go back to school, and I hope it can strike some of the same fire as the recent "Jumanji" reboot. I figure there's a range from $45M to $85M on this pic... So, I'm splitting the difference and hoping for the best, and counting on Swiper not stealing my box office. [Edited to add: Since "Artemis Fowl" has migrated to next May, I think it's more likely "Dora" will navigate her way to a decent box-office performance... even though it loses ten days of Summer in the process. So, I've added $5M to its projected ticket sales.]
[16.] "Where'd You Go, Bernadette?" (8/9/19): $16M. It's the adaptation of a VERY critically acclaimed novel, the cast is huge, and Richard Linklater seems due for a hit. That being said, this could be a MASSIVE bust, and its full-year delay is concerning. On the other paw, it's my last pick of the draft, so, I'll consider pretty much anything a success. I do suspect that if this film was going to be an awards-season contender, it would be released much later in the year.
[5.] "The Angry Birds Movie 2" (8/14/19): $73M. This sequel to the improbable (in my estimation) hit has late Summer practically to itself in its market space: I can't see "The PLAYMOBIL Movie" doing all that much better than "UglyDolls", and "Spies in Disguise", another release I think could misfire badly, doesn't come out for five weeks. "Dora" should be more or less played out by then, and I don't know how much impact Disney's potential franchise-starter "Artemis Fowl" is going to have, given that "Angry Birds" is made for the under-ten set. That being said: As it's being released a full two months later than the original, I don't think it's going to top $100M. I'd love to be wrong, tho.
[Edited 5/7/19] [10.] "Rambo: Last Blood" (9/20/19): $40M (original prediction: $42M). Truth be told, the "Rambo" franchise, like "Predator" and most horror properties, has only rarely lived up to its billing -- once critically, once commercially. So it's a long shot to do terribly well, but, it's possible the "Expendables" and "Creed" franchises have increased Stallone's profile ("Expendables 3" notwithstanding), and this "Last" entry in the saga of John Rambo has a couple weeks in the fall all to itself in its market space, after "Angel Has Fallen" and before a bevy of adult-oriented actioners assault cinemas in October. But I don't expect this final installment to go great guns. [Edited to add: I don't think "Ad Astra"'s date shift, announced today, is going to have much impact on "Rambo: Last Blood"... Maybe a million or so. They're both adult-oriented dramatic fare, but there's not a ton of overlap in their prospective audiences, I don't think. Accordingly, I've revised my "Rambye" estimate down only $2M.]
[7.] "The Hunt" (10/18/19): $59M. Damon Lindelof has a great track record as far as box-office revenues go, Blumhouse is only getting more respected as a production company, and Universal's Halloween entry is probably the second-biggest entry of the month (behind the "Zombieland" sequel). Word is the script's a winner, but I'm not anticipating a huge payoff, here.
[2.] "Terminator: Dark Fate" (11/1/19): $185M. My biggest gamble of this season will need to more or less resurrect the entire franchise to come close to my predictions for its performance, but I have hopes that Cameron's return to the franchise he created, as well as Linda Hamilton's, will overcome the confused mediocrity of the last several installments and bring fans back to one of modern science fiction's most impactful series. I also suspect that, as the "Avatar" sequels inch closer to their debuts under DisneyFox, there will be a broad media and marketing focus on this hoped-for trilogy-starter. But it could easily crash to the tune of $65M or so. Schwarzenegger's no draw, any more, and it remains to be seen if audiences are still invested in this sputtering saga.
[4.] "Midway" (11/8/19): $140M. Another big risk, as Roland Emmerich's star is waning after several disappointing films; and, to be honest, holiday war movies are rarely VERY financially successful. However, this remake of one of cinema's most famous World War II films has an impressive cast, good word of mouth, and the potential to be one of the few broad mature-audience entries of the last two months of the year. If it hits, it could do $50M more than my prediction, as could "Terminator: Dark Fate". I'll take that chance.
[15.] "Margie Claus" (11/15/19): $60M. IF it comes out, Melissa McCarthy's potential holiday film ought generate some ticket-office traction. The question is, WILL IT EVEN BE MADE? I figure there's not much to lose at Pick #15, and McCarthy's performance in the overindexing "Life of the Party" speaks well for her appeal as a mainstream comedic draw (and was a nice return to form after the astonishingly awful and potentially career-threatening misfire, "The Happytime Murders"). This could go higher. IF it's released.
[Edited 5/7/19] [3.] "The Call of the Wild" (2/21/20, originally 12/25/19): $82M (original prediction: $120M). Another risky proposition, but I have a good feeling about it. The source material is dynamite, and if it breaks wide, it could be a phenomenal family option once everyone sees "The Rise of Skywalker". SOME form of accessible holiday counterprogramming is going to clean up after "Star Wars" makes its billion, and I just don't see "Cats" taking ALL that business. $200M is probably out of reach, but this is another film that might perform $50M over my current predicted box office. [Edited to add: Disney's big release schedule shakeup today (5/7/19) stuck a pretty fair shiv in this film's prospects, in my opinion, and boosted those of "Spies in Disguise", which took "The Call of the Wild"'s Christmas Day release date. I cannot see Disney now investing much in terms of promotion or marketing in this rival animation studio's efforts, and have downgraded the film's prospects accordingly. Damn.]
[8.] "Run" (1/24/20): $39M. Recent January horror-action-suspense offerings have been surprisingly popular, and with good reviews and marketing, this could go higher. Still, it's a long way off, and hard to predict. If word sours on this title, it might be one for the waivers.
[1.] "Onward" (3/6/20): $360M. Clearly, this is my hope for a big potential earner: Pixar, Pratt, Holland, dragons, and the Disney marketing machine. I honestly don't see how this one misfires, and I am hearing The Mouse House has real franchise hopes for this modern fantasy... Plus, merchandising ought be robust, weirdly rare for a Pixar film. I would not be surprised to see this title clear $400M. It could also bust, but probably not worse than $300M.
Total final projected earnings: $1.189B (edited 5/7/19; original prediction: $1.225B).
Hoped-for finish in Division A: 6th or 7th (edited 5/7/19; original prediction: 6th).