Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

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Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by NicodemustheSage »

[Edit 1: 5/7/19 ("UglyDolls"; "Dora and the Lost City of Gold"; "Rambo: Last Blood"; "The Call of the Wild")]

I thought it would be fun to see how my own estimates of my slate's potential were borne out -- fulfilled, or failed -- over the course of the year ahead. Want to join me? Naturally, I'll be refining my thoughts as the Season progresses, and I likely drop some titles and (hopefully) add relacements. Opinions and contentions welcomed, of course. I will justify my prognostications, if I can.


[11.] "UglyDolls" (5/3/19): $14M (revised downward from $18M). Obviously, I was hoping for better: Maybe $11M, $11.5M to open, and a leg-out to the low $30Ms. Ain't gonna happen -- This is about to sink lower than Boeing stocks. This was a bad idea all the way around. I was a retailer at the beginning, and early height, of the "UglyDolls" mini-craze; the time for someone to adapt this into a quasi-successful media property was five, six years ago, and that should have been a television show. But, I figured: Hey, it's the 11th Round. If it does $30M, it's worth it. Plenty of stinkers in the last third of the draft; and I saw no "The Mule" on the horizon, this season. Well, it didn't, and it probably wasn't. So, I guess I've made my epic error for this Season. :D [Edited to add: Looking at "UglyDolls"'s monster 85% drop on its first Monday, I have to assume it's already made 2/3rds of its eventual box-office total; therefore, I'm rounding it down by $4M. What a freaking disaster.]

ACTUAL EARNINGS: $20,150,241 (+$2,150,241, or +11.95% against original prediction)

[13.] "The Biggest Little Farm" (5/10/19): $4M. Okay, I have to admit: On this one, I broke my own rule -- DON'T GET EMOTIONAL ABOUT PICKS! But I just LOVE this production, from soup to nuts. It's a passion pick, but, let's be honest: Even with a BIG roll-out, it ain't going to be the next "March of the Penguins", or, "Winged Migration", and it won't do the sort of numbers DisneyNature films do... And even those tend to underperform my estimates. A better time to release this, of course, would have been either in the first quarter of the year, or at the holidays, or for Earth Day... It's likely to get rolled over in ANY Summer moviegoing season, even those that aren't dominated by the biggest film in history. But I have seen it wow audiences and critics and festival panels, so, let's see if this "Little" movie can overindex. I'll be over the moon if it can crack $10M.


[12.] "Tolkien" (5/10/19): $16M. Another passion pick, to be honest: I'm a huge JRRT fan, and I've been following this production closely. That being said, it's a REALLY wide release for such a niche product, I haven't seen much of conventional marketing for it, and word out of the production has been conflicted. Can "Tolkien" capitalize on the current pop-culture obsession with "Game of Thrones"? I just don't know. Fox Searchlight can pull off some amazing feats of marketing... But is Disney even trying? Because to the average moviegoer, this release is about as well-advertised as The Council of Elrond. As with all things, we shall see.

ACTUAL EARNINGS: $4,535,154 (-$15,464,846, or -71.65% against original prediction)


[14.] "The Dead Don't Die" (6/14/19): $4M. Great cast, good previews, and a studio that knows how to market niche / offbeat / cross-genre productions; you'd think I'd be more bullish on this title, and, in fact, I do think it could break out some, at least to the tune of $18M or so... But it could also very well be the next "Captive State", a film I was pretty high on. I figure anything over $10M is a 'win' in this late a Round.


[9.] "Midsommar" (7/3/19): $23M. I REALLY want to think this highly-touted film -- I've been hearing great things about it for well over a year -- is the next "Hereditary" (a film I thought might be good for $60M+ last Season, but which made $44M)... But it could be the next "It Comes at Night" ($14M). A24 has such a spotty record, I just can't predict this one. Put it this way: I'll be seeing it. I just don't know if anyone else will.


[Edited 5/7/19] [6.] "Dora and the Lost City of Gold" (8/9/19, originally 7/31/19): $70M (original prediction: $65M). I've been more impressed by the trailer and other marketing material than I thought I would be, considering this is a property a good ten years past its prime that is being aged-up to appeal to a teenaged audience a few years too young for "Tomb Raider". Frankly, I wonder if THIS film's audience even exists; but it's a known franchise coming out a few weeks before kids go back to school, and I hope it can strike some of the same fire as the recent "Jumanji" reboot. I figure there's a range from $45M to $85M on this pic... So, I'm splitting the difference and hoping for the best, and counting on Swiper not stealing my box office. [Edited to add: Since "Artemis Fowl" has migrated to next May, I think it's more likely "Dora" will navigate her way to a decent box-office performance... even though it loses ten days of Summer in the process. So, I've added $5M to its projected ticket sales.]


[16.] "Where'd You Go, Bernadette?" (8/9/19): $16M. It's the adaptation of a VERY critically acclaimed novel, the cast is huge, and Richard Linklater seems due for a hit. That being said, this could be a MASSIVE bust, and its full-year delay is concerning. On the other paw, it's my last pick of the draft, so, I'll consider pretty much anything a success. I do suspect that if this film was going to be an awards-season contender, it would be released much later in the year.


[5.] "The Angry Birds Movie 2" (8/14/19): $73M. This sequel to the improbable (in my estimation) hit has late Summer practically to itself in its market space: I can't see "The PLAYMOBIL Movie" doing all that much better than "UglyDolls", and "Spies in Disguise", another release I think could misfire badly, doesn't come out for five weeks. "Dora" should be more or less played out by then, and I don't know how much impact Disney's potential franchise-starter "Artemis Fowl" is going to have, given that "Angry Birds" is made for the under-ten set. That being said: As it's being released a full two months later than the original, I don't think it's going to top $100M. I'd love to be wrong, tho.


[Edited 5/7/19] [10.] "Rambo: Last Blood" (9/20/19): $40M (original prediction: $42M). Truth be told, the "Rambo" franchise, like "Predator" and most horror properties, has only rarely lived up to its billing -- once critically, once commercially. So it's a long shot to do terribly well, but, it's possible the "Expendables" and "Creed" franchises have increased Stallone's profile ("Expendables 3" notwithstanding), and this "Last" entry in the saga of John Rambo has a couple weeks in the fall all to itself in its market space, after "Angel Has Fallen" and before a bevy of adult-oriented actioners assault cinemas in October. But I don't expect this final installment to go great guns. [Edited to add: I don't think "Ad Astra"'s date shift, announced today, is going to have much impact on "Rambo: Last Blood"... Maybe a million or so. They're both adult-oriented dramatic fare, but there's not a ton of overlap in their prospective audiences, I don't think. Accordingly, I've revised my "Rambye" estimate down only $2M.]



[7.] "The Hunt" (10/18/19): $59M. Damon Lindelof has a great track record as far as box-office revenues go, Blumhouse is only getting more respected as a production company, and Universal's Halloween entry is probably the second-biggest entry of the month (behind the "Zombieland" sequel). Word is the script's a winner, but I'm not anticipating a huge payoff, here.


[2.] "Terminator: Dark Fate" (11/1/19): $185M. My biggest gamble of this season will need to more or less resurrect the entire franchise to come close to my predictions for its performance, but I have hopes that Cameron's return to the franchise he created, as well as Linda Hamilton's, will overcome the confused mediocrity of the last several installments and bring fans back to one of modern science fiction's most impactful series. I also suspect that, as the "Avatar" sequels inch closer to their debuts under DisneyFox, there will be a broad media and marketing focus on this hoped-for trilogy-starter. But it could easily crash to the tune of $65M or so. Schwarzenegger's no draw, any more, and it remains to be seen if audiences are still invested in this sputtering saga.


[4.] "Midway" (11/8/19): $140M. Another big risk, as Roland Emmerich's star is waning after several disappointing films; and, to be honest, holiday war movies are rarely VERY financially successful. However, this remake of one of cinema's most famous World War II films has an impressive cast, good word of mouth, and the potential to be one of the few broad mature-audience entries of the last two months of the year. If it hits, it could do $50M more than my prediction, as could "Terminator: Dark Fate". I'll take that chance.


[15.] "Margie Claus" (11/15/19): $60M. IF it comes out, Melissa McCarthy's potential holiday film ought generate some ticket-office traction. The question is, WILL IT EVEN BE MADE? I figure there's not much to lose at Pick #15, and McCarthy's performance in the overindexing "Life of the Party" speaks well for her appeal as a mainstream comedic draw (and was a nice return to form after the astonishingly awful and potentially career-threatening misfire, "The Happytime Murders"). This could go higher. IF it's released.


[Edited 5/7/19] [3.] "The Call of the Wild" (2/21/20, originally 12/25/19): $82M (original prediction: $120M). Another risky proposition, but I have a good feeling about it. The source material is dynamite, and if it breaks wide, it could be a phenomenal family option once everyone sees "The Rise of Skywalker". SOME form of accessible holiday counterprogramming is going to clean up after "Star Wars" makes its billion, and I just don't see "Cats" taking ALL that business. $200M is probably out of reach, but this is another film that might perform $50M over my current predicted box office. [Edited to add: Disney's big release schedule shakeup today (5/7/19) stuck a pretty fair shiv in this film's prospects, in my opinion, and boosted those of "Spies in Disguise", which took "The Call of the Wild"'s Christmas Day release date. I cannot see Disney now investing much in terms of promotion or marketing in this rival animation studio's efforts, and have downgraded the film's prospects accordingly. Damn.]


[8.] "Run" (1/24/20): $39M. Recent January horror-action-suspense offerings have been surprisingly popular, and with good reviews and marketing, this could go higher. Still, it's a long way off, and hard to predict. If word sours on this title, it might be one for the waivers.


[1.] "Onward" (3/6/20): $360M. Clearly, this is my hope for a big potential earner: Pixar, Pratt, Holland, dragons, and the Disney marketing machine. I honestly don't see how this one misfires, and I am hearing The Mouse House has real franchise hopes for this modern fantasy... Plus, merchandising ought be robust, weirdly rare for a Pixar film. I would not be surprised to see this title clear $400M. It could also bust, but probably not worse than $300M.


Total final projected earnings: $1.189B (edited 5/7/19; original prediction: $1.225B).


Hoped-for finish in Division A: 6th or 7th (edited 5/7/19; original prediction: 6th).
Last edited by NicodemustheSage on September 3rd, 2019, 8:54 pm, edited 22 times in total.
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by Buscemi2 »

UglyDolls was a more interesting prospect back when Robert Rodriguez was going to direct and it would have been live-action. I'd have rather seen Shorts with dolls than The Emoji Movie 2.
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by NicodemustheSage »

Oh, agreed, absolutely. Robert Rodriguez might have made this a really special film. Tim Burton, Aardman, or Laika, too. My wife and son saw it this weekend, and he liked it well enough, but, he's six. He liked "The Emoji Movie", too. :/

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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

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I guess I'll give this a shot.

Long Shot - I thought this would do a lot better. The film tested well, reviews were good, and the advance screenings seemed to fare decently. That Cinemascore seemed to kill it. Maybe audiences in 2019 don't want to see political comedies (which is bad news for Jon Stewart's second movie), especially ones that trigger the thin skins of those who constantly complain about Hollywood.

Toy Story 4 - it will be big. Personally, I think it will play better than The Lion King AND Frozen II.

Yesterday - almost everyone loves The Beatles. Richard Curtis is big in the US with his Americaphila. And Lily James seems to have become the new It girl from Europe (last year it was Claire Foy). Audiences will eat it up.

Artemis Fowl - a wild card if I say so myself. On one hand, Branagh is hot off of his Poirot movie. On the other hand, does anyone remember these books? Also, I haven't seen a thing for it even though it's Disney.

The Kitchen - the Vertigo adaptations are a bit niche but I think if it's sold as a crime film rather than a comic book adaptation, it should do decently. Plus, that cast was hard to ignore (McCarthy was recently nominated for an Oscar and Haddish and Moss are everywhere right now).

The Art of Racing in the Rain - dogs are big right now and it's not a W. Bruce Cameron (the Nicholas Sparks of animal stories) adaptation. In September, it should be able to weather the storm of Universal's twin pups.

Joker - Suicide Squad made lots of money. So did Venom. I expect the same result, even with a potential R rating. Maybe Phoenix might surprise up enough to get awards buzz like Heath Ledger did.

Zombieland 2: Double Tap - the horror fans wanted it but will they show up? I feel they will with the main cast returning. It could equal the original, maybe even top it.

Doctor Sleep - this feels like a case where everything is going right for it. The book was a success, Stephen King adaptations are hot, and Mike Flanagan's coming off of The Haunting of Hill House. McGregor's star power isn't so hot but I believe all you need to sell this as is The Shining 2 and you're all set.

Queen & Slim - this will be a test of Daniel Kaluuya's marketability but the Thanksgiving date should help. Also, I don't think we've had our Bonnie and Clyde-type movie in this decade. It could be a good candidate to cross over into multiple audiences.

The Turning - it's spent time on the shelf but Spielberg executive produced it, the cast has had recent visibility, and it being a Henry James adaptation gives it some classiness. A good candidate to play decently in late January.

Escape Room 2 - the first was a surprise hit and escape rooms are a big deal right now. Do we need to say more?

The One and Only Ivan - Dumbo disappointed but I feel has a good $75-80 million in the tank on its cast, high concept (zoo animals in a mall), and being from a popular book. Plus, it's Disney.

The Report - Amazon spent $14 million on this. It's going to get a big push for Oscar season.

Once Upon a Time in Staten Island - Jason Blum and James DeMonaco are like two peas in a pod. It's not a horror film but no way Blumhouse dumps this one onto Netflix with no advance word, especially with Naomi Watts in the cast.

Falling - I'm thinking more Captain Fantastic than Green Book but if Viggo Mortensen's directorial debut is any good, he might have directed himself to finally winning that Oscar.

In the end, I think I'll have just enough in the tank to stick around.
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

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Normally when I make my sheet I give films a realistic range and then draft based on a bunch of potential outcomes. I'll put what I'm kind of hoping for or expecting here but I think there could be a lot of variance in these guesses.

5/17 - A Dog's Journey (9): $50M+

I felt like this was a really safe pick. Emotional dog movies always end up making decent family dollars at the box office. Even the knockoff "A Dog's Home" made over $40M. As a sequel to the original that made $65M (and this one, thus far, has better reviews), this should do pretty well. The trailer tried pulling all the right heart strings and makes me feel that this will appeal to the target.

5/31 - Godzilla: King of the Monsters (2): $200M

My gut says this hits $200M but I realize that there's downside here so I adjusted my expectations for it. But the trailers look amazing and everyone's complaint from the first Godzilla was that there wasn't nearly enough monster time. Well... here you go. It feels like this is the movie everyone was hoping to see the first time so even if it doesn't open as large, it should have better legs.

6/21 - Child's Play (8): $50M+

This one's interesting. I could see it swinging higher or lower than my projection by quite a bit. It's an unnecessary sequel and I don't trust United Artists at all (although this is MGM and not Annapurna who I red flagged this year) but it could be fun enough to do decent money. The nice thing about horror is that it almost always has a floor so I don't think this is too likely to flat out bomb.

6/21 - Anna (12): $35M

This is the first film on my calendar that I think has a pretty decent shot of bombing. On paper I like it and the trailer looked really solid. It feels just like Atomic Blonde which did $50M+. But the Besson situation (which made me question if it was going to be in the game in the first place) makes me wonder if Lionsgate is just going to dump this. In a dump scenario it may still get to $20M or so which would be fine for this pick.

7/19 - The Lion King (1): $600M

If I had the #1 pick, I was going to have a really hard time between picking between this and Star Wars. I think this will be absolutely huge. You have an entire generation that loves the story, has grown up on it and will now want to share that experience with their family. It's going to be a four-quadrant smash. Trailer views are off the charts. If Jungle Book can approach $400M, I don't see why this doesn't eclipse that handily.

8/9 - Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark (7): $60M

Lately, I've been trying to avoid letting my bias sway me into making a selection because it's crushed me before but I couldn't help myself here. I grew up on the books and the sneak made me think this has a chance at actually capturing the creepiness of the original art. If it's good, this has a chance to break out because I know I'm not the only one who has nostalgia over this. Slight bomb risk but again, horror's floor usually leaves me feeling relatively safe.

10/11 - Gemini Man (4): $100M+

I do NOT have a good handle on a prediction for this one. It's an action drama which has been Will Smith's meal ticket in the past. And with Ang Lee, it's in capable hands (even though he's screwing around with the high FPS stuff again). But it's Paramount who is putting out around 2-3 $100M movies a year and the concept feels like it belongs in an earlier decade. If this did anywhere between $50M and $150M, I wouldn't really be surprised.

12/20: Cats (3): $150M

Hoo boy. This is the biggest bomb risk on my whole slate. I really, really hesitated to take this without seeing the character models but yet here it is. The musical is weird and I'm just praying the models don't get panned like Sonic but it's still a musical around Christmas time which means money so long as it's not trash. The cast is bonkers too (although I don't know if it's in a good or bad way). All that said, I wouldn't bat an eye if this made $50M because that's how much risk is here.

12/25 - Little Women (5): $75M+

Another legit bomb risk. This NEEDS to be good or it's not even going to sniff my projection. It could end up in the teens for all I know. But the cast is amazing and Gerwig is capable enough so I'm hoping that it has the typical holiday legs and ends up being in Oscar conversations (at the very least for Meryl). The 1994 version did $100M adjusted so maybe this can do well enough on its own.

1/3 - Grudge (10): $50M

I actually feel pretty good about this. Horror has a solid floor and Ghost House pictures made around $50M with both the Evil Dead and Poltergeist remakes. That first weekend of January horror slot has made $50M in back-to-back years and I don't think this year is any different.

4/17 - Trolls World Tour (6): $100M (or $0M)

if this stays on the date, it's going to make around $100M. The original did as much in its first two weeks, this will be more front-loaded, and I'm expecting this to increase due to the elevated popularity of the franchise post-release. The TV show helps build awareness but the movies will bring new music and give people a reason to watch. That said, being this late on the calendar means it could very easily get moved back and get me nothing (which is why it was there in the 6th). Maybe it'll get moved up instead and I'll dance my way to the bank.

TBA - The French Dispatch (11): $40M (or $0M)

I'm expecting typical Wes Anderson which should make good money over time (especially if Disney gives it a boost). And I've read that Anderson has said it could be ready by the end of the year which would give it potential for a prime holiday release and some awards season buzz. That hope was the reason why I took it this high although even if it ends up in spring, I'll be happy. Slight chance it misses the window but that'll obviously be a bummer.

TBA - Wish Dragon (15): $0M (or $50M)

So... total lottery ticket. This is done and coming out in China in July. I read exactly one (months old) interview with Kristine Belson that made me think this has a chance to come out stateside. If it does, it'll make money despite clearly being made for China. I'm just hoping the success of Spider-Verse has given her the clout to get this released here. Otherwise, it's a drop for me and frankly, that's what I'm expecting right now.

TBA - The Gentlemen (13): $30M+ (or $0M)

I decided to try a spray-and-pray approach on STX for some TBAs this year. They don't have anything dated after September 2019 so I took some gambles on stuff they showed off at Cinemacon. I mean... they have to release something, right? This movie sounds like a throwback to what Guy Ritchie does best and apparently the footage they showed was really well received. If it makes it onto the calendar, even if it sucks, it'll give me a good return on the investment.

TBA - The Secret Garden (14): $25M+ (or $0M)

Supposedly this looked good at Cinemacon (taken with a huge grain of salt due to the large sycophant concentration there) and again, I'm assuming STX is releasing something in late 2019-early 2020, so that's pretty much my gamble. This has a tentative April release date in France and if it gets a mirroring US release, even two weeks of BO receipts would justify the pick in the 14th round.

TBA - Countdown (16): $25M+ (or $0M)

Again, I'm just trying to get something that might end up on the calendar. Tech horror films have a notoriously quick turnaround time due to the ease of the concept so I feel like this can get finished and make it into the game. If not, it's a 16th round pick and given that I end up using waivers quite a bit each season, I think I can replace a couple of these.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I like my slate overall but man, I took a lot of risk at the back end. Just have to hope that some of this crap gets dated or I'm going to be scrambling all year to fill this slate out because it's REALLY hard to find this many decent options on waivers. Fortunately the early front-loading should mean I have enough dated releases in the tank to not get demoted... I hope...
Last edited by Spectre on May 8th, 2019, 1:47 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by NicodemustheSage »

If "Toy Story 4" shallows $500M, I'll be VERY surprised.

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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

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NicodemustheSage wrote:If "Toy Story 4" shallows $500M, I'll be VERY surprised.

--Nico.
The last one grossed $415 million domestic and it's been nearly a decade. Lots of younger kids have discovered the franchise since then.

And if you think Toy Story 4 making $500 million seems like a stretch, look at The Incredibles and Incredibles 2. The first made $261 million ($383 million adjusted in 2018). Incredibles 2 grossed $608 million, a jump of over $200 million between films despite a 14 year wait.
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by NicodemustheSage »

Yuuppp. I would personally predict $650-$700M for "The Misadventures of Sporky & Co." :D

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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by Buscemi2 »

I just think all of you are overestimating Simba and Olaf.

But that spork's going to become beloved. The spork is already one of the best inventions in the culinary world. Why not have one talk?
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by NicodemustheSage »

Well, could be. "Frozen"'s sequel is probably coming two years too late to really capitalize on the momentum of the first, and the Disney live-action remakes are clearly not the force they had been supposed to be... On the other hand, if ANY Disney films this year are going to really clean up following "Endgame", it's them, along with "The Rise of Skywalker". I think Disney will have no less than four $600M films this year.

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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by Walleye413 »

My Top this year were Avengers, Lion King, Star Wars, Frozen 2, and Toy Story 4 in that order.

I wouldn't be terribly shocked if 2-5 swapped around a bit, but that was what I figured. And yes 4 topping 600 million seems very possible although I feel like Frozen falls a bit short mostly because of competition. Same with Toy Story 4 I think there's just too many other must sees to really hit much above 450 million or so.

For my Slate I start off with Secret Life of Pets 2 and then Shaft. Then it's a long wait to my Fall releases.

I hope Shaft hits 100 million, I think it'll just scrape that number. As for SLOP2 I still think it clears 300 million. There is such goodwill for the first one, the trailer is killing it. I know Toy Story is 2 weeks later but I think it'll get there.

Which means I need Abominable to hit 150 million and Jumanji to pull 350 million just to get close to the magic Billion mark. If Tom Hanks pulls me over the top I think I at least live to see another day. Honestly this year I'd be happy with a Bronze.

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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by Buscemi2 »

Smallfoot topped out at $83 million. Missing Link looks tapped out at $16 million. Abominable will need a miracle to gross $150 million. I'm thinking it plays more like Wonder Park did (currently at $45 million) but slightly better.
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by numbersix »

5/3 Avengers: Endgame (1)
A no-brainer. Infinity Wars did well, and after that record-breaking weekend I figure this will break a few more records before its done. I am hoping for $400m although it may not have even the same hold as Infinity Wars (basically it earned me exactly what it earned in its first 7 days). $380-400

5/3 The Intruder (10)
Didn't want to let this go off the board, which it nearly did. I was expecting $25m and it looks like it'll end up with that.

5/10 Poms (9)
My oldie pick. Book Club surprised last year and I figure this intends to do the same. Deduct a little because of STX. But a low opening and a strong hold should give me about $40m

5/24 Booksmart (7)
My, I did frontload my slate. But this is one I have a lot of hope for. It's all about the buzz, which was crazy in SXSW, a festival that's very good at generating buzz for successful comedies. The only problem is that it's UA releasing which may result in a poorly-promoted film. Another film with a $10m opening but a cume around $40 would be good enough for me.

6/28 Annabelle Comes Home (4)
A safe option for me. Horrors are critic-proof, so it's really all about whether audiences get bored of this franchise. The abundance of various horrors across the summer makes me think this is good for around $75m

9/20 Downton Abbey (6)
I love these oldies films. The show was hugely popular, with around 10m folks tuning in each weekend to bore themselves to sleep. I expect there to be a huge push for this film, and maybe even an award or two. $35-50m

10/25 Bad Trip (11)
I dunno, I just wanted something between Sept and Jan. It's got a Jackass kinda vibe but I'd be happy if it managed $20m

1/10 Limited Partners (8)
There's a floor for a film like this, and Tiffany Haddish is on the up. I figure $25m at worst, $40m at best. Interestingly, looking back you don't see too many comedies in Jan. Surely that's the time when people need comedy as they try to beat the post-holiday blues? Ride Along and The Upside certainly prove this theory right.

2/7 Birds of Prey (2)
Harley Quinn was the highlight of the frankly underwhelming Suicide Squad (which is getting a reboot/sequel thing), and the director is a really interesting choice. As long as this can convey some warped fun then it has major potential. But I'll cautiously expect $150m.

2/7 Peter Rabbit 2 (5)
It has Dr Doolittle as competition, but the first made a shocking $100m despite having the most annoying man in the world voice its hero, so this should make around $75m assuming lack of significant competition.

2/14 Nimona (14)
And just to be safe I also picked up the competition. It may not make its date, or even be released, but if it is this Blue Sky animation should net me a base of $20m

4/8 James Bond 25 (3)
A BIG risk considering last year it lost its director. But Cary Fukanaga can work fast and Spectre was delivered under a similar deadline so hopefully it sticks to April. And with Phoebe Waller Bridge (check out her show Killing Eve) behind a rewrite you could see this being one of the best Bonds of recent years. Minimum $150m if it makes its date

Jojo Rabbit (13)
Its so cray-cray it just might work. A film about Hitler may scare audiences away, but I've faith in Taika Waititi's sensibilities and the strong cast involved. $15m

Eve (14)
No distributor yet, but a director with a strong track record and a good cast should ensure a theatrical release. $20m

The Personal History of David Copperfield (15)
I need something with Oscar potential, and Armando Iannucci is such a great writer that this should get a Best Adapted Screenplay nod. Expect this to appear in TIFF with plenty of buzz. The Death of Stalin made $8m so this should double that $15m

All Star Weekend (16)
This has been floating about for a while, but apparently its about done and looking for a distributor. An amazing cast should get it on the big screens. $30m if it does.

EDIT: Total tally 1.15 billion. A little ahead of what I made last year.
Last edited by numbersix on May 7th, 2019, 9:36 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Buscemi2
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by Buscemi2 »

I have a feeling Booksmart's going to be a dud. Reviews have been great but that didn't help Long Shot. Also, it really doesn't look much different from films like Superbad (the gender's different but the hijinks are the same).

Meanwhile, I don't think Nimona ever started production. IMDb lists that it's filming but that was a year and a half ago. Also, no cast is listed.

On the other hand, I'm not sure why Focus is platforming Downton Abbey. This should be a wide opener immediately as Americans are obsessed with rich English people.
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numbersix
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by numbersix »

Booksmart's reviews are more effusive than Long Shot's, and Superbad with girls is surely what makes it "different". for me, it's all about how UA is currently operating and whether they can give it the push it needs.

Nimona is definitely a question mark. Going into production 2 years ago makses sense as animation production can take years.

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