Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

All league discussion for the currently in-play box office seasons.

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Buscemi2
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by Buscemi2 »

The Dead Don't Die's going to be a miss. It's Jarmusch's widest release but the reviews are lower-tier for him.

He waited too long to enter the zombie sweepstakes and I feel a lot of the intended audience that normally wouldn't see a Jarmusch film will ignore it as the zombies talk (these are the same people who hate 28 Days Later just because the zombies run).

I can't see it making more than $4 million total.
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by Chienfantome »

Agreed on The Dead don't die. I've seen it it won't break out.
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by Shrykespeare »

I'm happy so far, largely thanks to Aladdin. It's performed well above my expectations, more than enough to cover the slight shortfalls of Long Shot and Ma. I have a long way to go, though. I have to hope that Annabelle breaks out, and that Midsommar doesn't tank completely.
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by Buscemi2 »

Midsommar's 140 minute run time is going to be a major issue. After audiences gave a cool reception to Hereditary (it did make money as it was the only horror title in the market at that time), there will probably be more of a demand for Aster to do a more conventional (and shorter) horror film. This looks to be neither.

It wouldn't be surprising to see it only make half of Hereditary's numbers (which would be terrible for its three-day numbers, see Holmes & Watson for an example of a non-Friday opener with negative word of mouth) but still be profitable once international and post-theatrical grosses are factored in.
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by undeadmonkey »

Shrykespeare wrote:I'm happy so far, largely thanks to Aladdin. It's performed well above my expectations, more than enough to cover the slight shortfalls of Long Shot and Ma. I have a long way to go, though. I have to hope that Annabelle breaks out, and that Midsommar doesn't tank completely.
Yes, Praise be, thanks to Aladdin. Still Aladdin over-performing isnt' enough for Pikachu and Dark Phoenix's failing. Definitaly wont win this year, but hopefully enough left on the rest of my picks to stay in this league.

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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by NicodemustheSage »

A third way through the Season, and it's time for me to begin taking stock:

...Yeah, that could've gone better. :D

[11.] Let's begin with "UglyDolls" (5/3/19), one of the more recognizable late-Round titles, one I snapped up just so SOMEONE could say they had: I initially hoped for $18M, then quickly set my sights lower, to $14M. It closed, rather gratefully it seemed, after scarcely two months with $20,150,241, a bad idea poorly executed, and one of the all-time worst-performing computer-animated films EVER -- right around "Mars Needs Mom's" which single-handedly annihilated ANY chance of there EVER being a well-financed "Bloom County", Opus the Penguin, or Bill the Cat theatrical adaptation. Sure, it out-performed both of my VERY NOMINAL projections for the release... And I sure will be needing every dollar of that $2.15M overage. Hell, it might not even outleg the "Playmobil" movie -- and that looks like a bag of smashed assholes.

[13.] My third-favorite theatrical release of the year so far, "The Biggest Little Farm" (5/10/19), finally concluded its harvest this past week -- after three and a half months in theaters, including an odd little re-releases six weeks in -- and, you know, I nailed this one pretty well: $4,366,949, off a $4M prediction. Fair enough for this game, but, DAMN, this film deserved better -- it's one of the best documentaries I've ever seen, and hands-down one of the most engaging, uplifting, intellectually stimulating, emotionally resonant, affirming experiences I've ever had in a movie theater. This should have been a DisneyNature release, on Earth Day. Anyway, probably this "Little" gem -- which I hope to see nominated for Best Documentary Film by The Academy next year -- will do down as being my favorite pick of this Season's draft in spite of its ridiculously small earnings; I feel good about myself for having championed this doc, and hope a few of y'all managed to see it on a big screen... The cinematography is SO worth it. :)

[12.] ...And, then, there's Maude: Who would have guessed, in the same month that "Game of Thrones" returned, as fantasy is FINALLY getting the recognition it deserves in the popular culture, a film about J.R.R. "Tolkien" (5/10/19), fairly well-promoted and with such a built-in fanbase, would CRATER, the Scourge of the cineplex? Good Gandalf. I put it at $16M, but its dwarfish haul of $4,535,154 -- eclipsing "Biggest Little Farm", sure, but, still -- wiped out my minimal excesses from those first two releases, and put me in the hole against my pre-Season estimates to the tune of $10M and more; not a lot, it's true, but when you're wringing the limp end of the towel like I am, this year, every kopek matters. I saw the movie; it ignored its subject's Christianity entirely, which no doubt contributed to the sensational shrug audiences of faith gave at its release; perhaps worse still, no Inklings! What a freaking disaster. A PHENOMENAL, "Theory of Everything"-esque telling of the great Man's life might have resulted in $60-$70M; this was anything but. A hobbit-sized outcome for a bad, unworthy, deeply disappointing pick.

[14.] ...At least "The Dead Don't Die" (6/14/19) didn't stiff me. I admit: I had higher hopes for this all-star (in front of the camera AND behind) lark than what I admitted to ($4M); I REALLY wanted it to be one of those quirky little pics that somehow catches fire and doesn't know when to stop, like "Zombieland", or "Napoleon Dynamite", or "The End of the World". Didn't happen -- it was here and gone so fast, I didn't even get around to seeing it in theaters, sadly -- but its $6,563,605 in earnings took SOME of the sting out of the doomed "Tolkien", and helped me claw back to only about $7.5M in the red (against my original performance prognostications for my admittedly shoestring slate). I had much bigger aspirations -- stated, and unsaid -- however, for...

[9.] "Midsommar" (7/3/19). Rather modestly, perhaps even a bit superstitiously, I pegged what I earnestly thought might be "Hereditary"'s successor and heir at $23M, but, privately, I was hoping for $60M or higher -- maybe even nine digits, if it turned out to be all I'd heard it would be. And, you know, it was quite well-executed at that... But it just seemed to MISS, somehow, in spite of all it had to recommend it. Now, it's still going at $26,883,471, but it won't ring out above $29M: Closing my deficit to a bare three million dollars or so, perhaps, and clearly establishing that my initial projections for my slate weren't totally unrealistic -- but I'm gaining no ground, really, and running out of potential sleepers FAST. Fortunately, I had a VERY well-established brand coming up, right around the corner, to close my Summer with at least one sure-fire hit release...

[6.] "Dora and the Lost City of Gold" (8/9/19, originally 7/31/19).
So, here's the thing: It's actually a pretty good film, faithful to its source material, clever, and even a touch surprising; but it's ten years too late. Had this film been released in, say, 2007, I've no doubt it would have been the "Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle" of its time; but, with $51,262,483 in the bank so far coming off the Labor Day weekend, probably it's going to end up right around $60M or so -- not such a long way off from my original thought of $65M, or my revised (after its date change) forecast of $70M, even; but I'm losing ground, again, wasting a sixth-round pick (my highest yet on the calendar) on a very mediocre result. My next title, at least, had the great Fortune of being my very last pick, and, therefore, could not possibly disappoint, right?

[16.] ...Well... I'll be honest; I didn't expect to see this one fall to me. "Where'd You Go, Bernadette?" (8/9/19) has been rumored for three seasons and more; and its pedigree -- bestselling book, stellar cast, legendary director -- was pretty impeccable. I didn't think it could shallow $16M, but it will -- at $8,390,839, after several weeks of release, with no meaningful awards-season buzz and its advertising budget depleted, it's not going to hit $12M, and still, I sink. At least this one didn't cost me a top-ten pick -- and my fifth selection, the sequel to an improbable hit a few years back, couldn't POSSIBLY miss, right? Eh, piggy?

[5.] "The Angry Birds Movie 2" (8/14/19). ...I mean, God DAMN it! The original film is perhaps the movie I loathe most, but there was no denying its performance... [Sigh] At $35,741,056, it's probably got no more than $10M, maybe $12M left -- and even that might be a stretch, a good long way off from the $73M I'd assumed. I now stand a good $50M, give or take, under my slate's early hoped-for performance, and I'm going to need to squeeze every last nickel out of EVERY release from here on out to have a prayer of $1B... I could easily end up below $800M, if "Last Blood", ",Terminator", "Midway", and "Onward" ALL manage to underperform, or shit the bed entirely. And, He'll, I'm not even certain "Margie Claus" is going to be released!

...So, yeah. I'm giving myself a C-, so far, and I think that's being generous.

How 'bout you?

--Nico.
I remain, as always.

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numbersix
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by numbersix »

Yikes, at least the under-performers are from your bottom picks, Nico. If your 1-4 round picks over-perform even slightly then you should be in a solid place.

I've has a disappointing start to the game too.

With Avengers: Endless I figured it would be good for at least 400m, and maybe a little more. But it was more frontloaded than expected. If I had taken Toy Story 4 I'd have nearly $50m more in the bank.

The Intruder did as expected. I picked it early as it was close to becoming inelligible, and who, besides some Wall St cokeheads, would want to waste an available $30m? Turns out I got $5m more.

Next came two big disasters. Bombs, I mean Poms, should have been this year's Book Club, appealing to older folk who gently wander in (perhaps unaware what they're doing) rather than rush through those opening-weekend doors. I would've been happy with 30m but got $13m instead. And then Booksmart, the highly regarding female version of Superbad (Superbra?). Great WOM, strong trailers suggested this could really explode. I was thinking 40-50m. Instead, I got 22m. In both cases I blame the distributors. STX are sinking still, and UA just don't seem to know what they're doing (The Hustle is their only half-decent performer so far).

Annabelle 3 performed as expected. Some were expecting another 100m bonanza, but there was a lot of horror this summer (and not just in the indie distributors' accounts). I expected 75m and got close enough to that.

The Farewell was dropped by someone in my league (UDM) and I snapped it up instantly. Fortunately, it performed well. Akwafina is a star and the good reviews and clear market (Asian Americans) made me think this could hit $10m. It's now at $16m and counting. It's the only great pick I've made so far.

Pretty much my remaining in the A League is entirely dependent on whether No Time To Die is released in April, despite the change of director, injuries, questionable US distributors, and toilet perverts.

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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by Chienfantome »

Nico, your slate sure hasn't been performant, but at least as Six says, you still have your bigger films to come.
Six, I'd be disappointed like you with Poms, I thought it would go higher, the rest did pretty much as I was expecting.

As for myself, I wasn't expecting much of The Sun is also a star, but at least $20M, and barely got 5 in the end. Yikes. But it was round 12, so I can take it.

Stuber was a bigger disappointment. I thought it could be a mid-level hit in the middle of the summer and climb to $50, but it didn't even reach half of that. At round 8, it's till ok, but a disappointment.

Hobbs & Shaw has been solid, even if a bit disappointing too. My hopes were too high for it. I really hoped it would get $200M, but was expecting $150M at the very worst, and it's gonna end up around $165M so I'm fine with it.

Angel has Fallen has been the brighter spot so far, the one exceeding expectations, with already more than $40M in the bank and counting for a round 9 pick, while $40M was what I was hoping for totals. It's gonna get me probably around 60/65M when all will be said and done, which is great.

As for Brittany runs a marathon, the limited release has been solid so far and promises the film might have a career nationwide, which is satisfying.
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by Spectre »

Let's see...

- A Dog's Journey hit below the low end of my expectations. One too many dog movies in a short window.
- Godzilla hit below the low end of my expectations. I thought there might be a drop in a sequel but not like this.
- Child's Play hit the low end of my expectations. Never trust United Artists. Not even once.
- Anna hit below the low end of my expectations. Granted, my low end was $10M but still... this was straight dumped like I feared.
- Lion King is doing about what I thought it would. I had it at $500M realistically with $600M+ upside so this isn't too surprising.
- Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark is about where I thought it would be (and it was tracking lower). A good pick for once.

So... 2 solid picks performing at expectation and 4 bombs so far. Lovely...

Very glad that owning The Lion King means I can hit $1B while still blowing it like this.

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Chienfantome
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by Chienfantome »

Having The Lion King sure helps digest a few bombs.
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