Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

All league discussion for the currently in-play box office seasons.

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numbersix
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by numbersix »

Also, just for a bit of debate fun, I'm gonna say Toy Story 4 disappoints.

The plot seems to be too similar to the other films (toys with existential crises, Woody getting lost again, learning their own value by the end, etc) and it feels like a film too far. I actually think Frozen 2 will beat it in BO (if Jumanji gets pushed), so thinking more around 350-375m. Incredibles 2 was a sequel we were all waiting for. No one left Toy Story 3 wanting more.

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Spectre
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by Spectre »

Typing my breakdown out made me realize just how much risk I took this year... ugh...

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NicodemustheSage
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by NicodemustheSage »

I hear what you're saying about "Toy Story 4", and, personally, I agree: This is the first film in the series I actually have ZERO desire to see (so far). But I think "Toy Story" is bulletproof, and even a mediocre entry will pack 'em in.

On the other hand: "Frozen II" looks AMAZING to me.

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Geezer
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by Geezer »

numbersix wrote:Also, just for a bit of debate fun, I'm gonna say Toy Story 4 disappoints.

The plot seems to be too similar to the other films (toys with existential crises, Woody getting lost again, learning their own value by the end, etc) and it feels like a film too far. I actually think Frozen 2 will beat it in BO (if Jumanji gets pushed), so thinking more around 350-375m. Incredibles 2 was a sequel we were all waiting for. No one left Toy Story 3 wanting more.
I was absolutely going to pretty much type this exact same thing. I was the first person on board the "Toy Story 3 is going to be a massive 400 million dollar smash hit" train, so this is by no means a bias against Toy Story or anything like that, but the film just feels completely unnecessary. Toy Story 3 was such the perfect ending. It wrapped up the saga in such a magical way. Now there's a fourth that feels like Pixar is out of good ideas and they are just trying to milk their franchises dry. Unless it is every bit as good as the other installments of the franchise, I think it dramatically underachieves (meaning it falls short of Toy Story 3's total).
Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man. - The Dude

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Geezer
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by Geezer »

Also tough day for Team Buscemi. Two films bumped out in one day before Division B has even finished drafting. That's gotta hurt.
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Buscemi2
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by Buscemi2 »

I'm sure I'll find some Green Book-type smash out there. I lost $150 million but if I'm lucky, maybe I can find a way to regain half that.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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undeadmonkey
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by undeadmonkey »

this is a fun thread, obviously the amounts are very subjective, specially those with very little release info.

5/10 Detective Pikachu (1)
the main reason i picked this is because all the good ones had been taken. Mostly kidding. Actually what intrigued me was that at the time of it's trailer release, it almost cracked the top 10 of most viewed trailers and still sits at #20 right now. So it's going to be huge, there is demand, my only trepidation is that a lot of that demand might be outside of north america and unfortunately that wouldnt help me very much. Still think the floor is $200M, hoping for more

5/24 Aladdin (2)
unfortunately, this film feels like the forgotten middle sibling, while everyone waits for Lion King. On the other hand i think that there are enough people who will want to whet their appetite for Disney remakes, while they wait for The Lion King. My main concern is how campy it looks. Curious to see what the reviews will be like. Should still be able to get to $200M.

6/7 Dark Phoenix (4)
Fox's last Xmen hurrah. I really don't have much hope for this, specially after Sansa showed how well she can keep secrets. I did think it was the best choice of the films left though. Hopefully can get $100M out of it.

6/7 Late Night (7)
2 years ago Amazon had a nice sized hit with the Big Sick over the summer. The reviews haven't been as stellar but still decent. $40M

7/12 The Farewell (12)
This one has been getting stellar reviews, but will that translate to $$$, hard to say, American's are still lazy, most don't like to read their movies. $3M

4/3 New Mutants (10)

I was really not expecting this to be released. However it looks like Disney has other plans. Are they required to release it? Now that they are in charge of reshoots, are they going to retcon the film into the MCU? Who knows what's happening... $80M???

12/25 Spies in Disguise (6)
Also lucked out on this choice, Maybe the film is childish enough that Disney thinks it can coexist with Star Wars. Hoping for Ferdinand numbers, $70M.

9/13 The Goldfinch (8)
The book has done really well, hopefully that translates to film. really have no clue as to what it will make, $30M?

9/27 Judy (13)
Maybe with some oscar talk it can get to $5M

11/8 Last Christmas (5)
The one and only Christmas themed film and the only straight up comedy of the season, should be good for $80M

11/27 Knives Out (3)
oooh, i have no clue how this will do, but i wanted it. Got to take some risks. can it do Murder on the Orient Express numbers, maybe not. but i can hope. $100M

12/27 Clemency (15)
Mainly took it because it has a release date, and there's been some oscar talk, $5M

3/20 I Still Believe (9)
Lionsgate had a huge hit with I Can Only Imagine, think they are going to start a 'song movie universe'? $50M

Harriet (11)
If it gets a decent release, I think could do $20M

A Million Little Pieces (14)
Also no release date yet, but maybe $5M if it does get released?

6/5/20 Wonder Woman 1984 (16)
Now that Disney took their place holder spot, i doubt DC is going to move anything into the month. $0. Time to look for something else

so that totals out to $988M, maybe i can find something that can take me over the $1B mark with whatever i replace Wonder Woman with. However, that doesn't look like enough to win, or even get top 3.

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Geezer
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by Geezer »

Your underestimation of Aladdin alone will be enough to push you over a billion
Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man. - The Dude

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NicodemustheSage
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by NicodemustheSage »

I'm not so sure. "Aladdin"'s sets and costumes look positively sumptuous, but literally nothing else about the production is grabbing me... And it's definitely a film I had on my Summer must-see list. $200M is at the upper end of where I think this movie is going to end up, frankly. Nothing over $230M, for certain.

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W
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by W »

A few months ago I thought Aladdin would be just under what Lion King is to me now, one of the top ten grossing movies of all time. After the backlash I thought $300 M assured, now no one seems to care so I think it may struggle to make that much. Lion King has done it right so far, they got celebrities people want to see, they've done nothing to screw with the nostalgia (i.e. Genie), the got a director that's made multiple super successful big budget CGI films with one of them being the closest we've gotten to CGI Lion King (Jungle Book).

It's very commendable that they've gotten people with heritage from that part of the world to play the parts that should be Middle Eastern, but people don't know them. I know Will Smith, Alan Tudyk, and I've know the name Billy Magnussen (can't tell you where from). They bet all the star power on a guy that people just don't care about anymore and they screwed that character up to begin with (at least in the internet's eyes).
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by Chienfantome »

Alright, let's dot this.
So here's what I think about my own slat's potential.

5/17 The Sun is also a star (12)
I honestly picked it first and foremost because when round 12 came, I still had no film from May or June and really didn't want to spend 2 months waiting for a film of mine to open. Plus in Round 12, having a summer studio-backed film opening wide is a good pick. It will probably only get me 20/25 million, maybe 30 million with luck, and that's fine with me. $25M

7/12 Stuber (8)
Last year, Round 8 was when I drafted The Darkest Minds which didn't even get me $15M, so I should have no troubles getting better out of this one. WOM out of SXSW was mixed , but I figure Bautista and Nanjiani are two popular (on different levels) actors with potential good chemistry and it might be a sleeper hit during July when there are not that many releases because of the two giants Spidey and Lion King. The pitch reminds me of French film Taxi, which no one saw coming 20 years ago and started a franchise here in France. I don't expect that kind of breakout, but it definitely has the potential to grab between $50M and 75M. $55M

8/2 Hobbs & Shaw (2)
I can't believe this one fell back to me in Round 2. For me it was a Round 1 film, the action film that's gonna own August. $150M is the absolute minimum this is gonna get, but it should instead gross over $200M. Last year I had MI6 in round 2, and I think it should bank about as much. $220M

8/23 Angel has Fallen (9)
Well, the first Banning film grossed $100M, and the second one, with a much poorer pitch, got something like 65M. This has got abetter pitch than the sequel, basically an Air Force One remake with Butler kicking ass, in the last frames of summer when competition is thinner. It should have no problem getting $40M, which would be greatfor round 9.

8/23 Brittany runs a marathon (13)
So I was this close to drafting Black and Blue instead, but at the last minute went for that audience-award winning, crowdpleaser from Sundance, which might very well only earn $2M. But buzz has been so solid, with reviews saying this one has a true breakout potential among smaller films, I thought it was worth a shot at Round 13. $15M

10/18 Maleficent Mistress of Evil (3)
Definitely not my favorite pick of the draft, but it felt to me that this was the best possible at this point in the draft. The first one made well over $200M, and even if many didn't want a sequel, it should be good for around $125/130M, possibly more when you consider it's got a bit of a Halloween DNA (not the film, the time of the year) and not much competition this year on this level. $130M

10/18 Torrance (7)
So here's hoping this one is as successful as my #7 of last year, Instant Family, altough it doesn't have much in common. But A redemption-theme sports movie with a star (Affleck) and a bunch of kids, from an unremarkable but solid director feels like a film with true under the radar potential. It feels like the kind of sports-themed film that you don't see coming but ends up with solid WOM and a respectable score at the BO, like The Rookie all those years back. $60M

11/22 Frozen 2 (1)
I thought it would be drafted before my pick, so I gladly took it. The first one was such a global phenomenon, it has the potential to be huge. Might be even bigger than the first one if they have a song like Let it go in it. But for now I'll be safe in my prediction and say it will get $350M.

11/22 Rhythm Section (11)
It feels to me no one took it before me because it was postponed, but this was a case of injury of the lead actress. We haven't seen anything yet, but surprisingly, Blake Lively has a very solid record at the BO. With her in the lead, her films tend to gross 45/55 million, so here's hoping it's the case here too. $40M

1/10 1917 (6)
I might have picked it just a bit too early, but Mendes directing a War film with a great cast and a great end-of-the-year launch, it could be one of the big contenders at next year's Oscars. I'm thinking it could stay in the 40/50M zone, but with a real shot at breaking out towards the 90/100M area. I'll predict in between for now. $70M

1/17 Bad Boys For Life (4)
Last year I had A Star is Born, so I'm bound for disapointment with my #4 this year. I hesitated with Spies in Disguise, which looks better now with its Christmas release. But hey, if the date sticks, Bad Boys should be good for at least 60/70M, right ? And who knows, if the duo is still popular... Let's stay reasonable and say $75M for now.

2/14 Kingsman spinoff (5)
I have bad luck with my #5, every year they turn out flops (last year was Mortal Engines). I feel like this year, I should do better than usual. Even if it does less than the two Kingsman film, it should get to about $70M.

TBD Chaos Walking (10)
Meh. Who knows what's gonna happen with this one. But I thought if it's still available when we arrive in double-digit rounds, I'll grab it. It stsill has true potential if released on time, no matter the chaos of the prod. $65M

TBD Dry Run (14)
I'm thinking this should be one of Focus Features hopefuls for the Oscar season, and this one has a better profile box-office wise than previous Todd Haynes films, with Mark Rufalo and Anne Hathaway in the leads and a film that has a sort of Erin Brockovich pitch. $20M

TBD Seth Rogen Pickle comedy (15)
This was one of the TBD's films on my list I really hope would fall to me. Filming's done, it has Sony backing it, Rogen and Goldberg producing, Rogen in a double role and a crazy pitch. There's enough space to place it in the first quarter of 2020 and if so, it could be at least $50M in the bank for me, maybe more. $50M

TBD Antlers (16)
Guillermo Del Toro producing a horror film directed by Hostiles' Scott Cooper. I'm in to go see it, and I'm glad I drafted it. The question mark is what Searchlight / Disney is gonna do with it, but Del Toro is royalty thanks to The Shape of Water, so if he's pushing the film, it should have no problem getting a good release. And with Del Toro and Cooper, I'm confident it's gonna be good. What can I get out of it ? I'm thinking at least $25M if it's not too arty, but it doesn't feel like it. $25M

I'm sure things are not gonna turn out this way for all films, but with this slate I'm confident I'll hit over 1 billion. And I have a shot at remaining on the podium again.
Fluctuat nec mergitur

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Walleye413
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by Walleye413 »

Just watched the first trailer for It 2. That movie is going to make bank! Seriously thought about picking it at #7. Kind of wishing I had.

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Geezer
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by Geezer »

Geezer wrote:Your underestimation of Aladdin alone will be enough to push you over a billion
Yeah, it's going to get more than halfway to 200 million this weekend and has an A cinema score. It's going to top 300 before it is all said and done. And the Lion King is going to make that look like an appetizer
Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man. - The Dude

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Geezer
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by Geezer »

Count me among those giving the film an A. I saw it today and it was wonderful. The music, the costumers, the adventure, all plus plus. Will Smith held his own, and Naomi Scott was spectacular.
Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man. - The Dude

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Buscemi2
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by Buscemi2 »

I have to wonder how many people before this weekend thought Naomi Scott was the same Naomi Scott that's married to Adam Scott and produces a lot of his projects.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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