2019-20 Full Year Slates (Division A)

[Buscemi2]

The Aeronauts reminds me a lot of Everest and The Walk. Both opened on IMAX first and neither managed to take off (Everest due to the downbeat nature of the story, The Walk because Sony was foolish to open it against The Martian). If those couldn't do well with major studios backing them, I can't see The Aeronauts making more than $10 million.

[Chienfantome]

Drafting Pikachu in Round 1 was a huge risk. I wouldn't have picked it before Round 2, no matter the buzz, there were too many chances the film could just be a big film but nothing spectacular. But hey, it's probably one of the reasons I got to have the chance to pick Hobbs and Shaw in Round 2 while this one could have been picked Round 1, so I won't complain, thanks UDM

[Buscemi2]

It wouldn't surprise me to see Hobbs and Shaw be one of the lesser Fast & Furious movies in terms of box office. The main concept already happened in Furious 7 and the series entering the sci-fi genre feels like they aren't even trying at this point (you wouldn't see James Bond or Ethan Hunt fighting Dr. Octopus so why are they essentially doing that here?).

I could see it making less money than 2 Fast 2 Furious.

[Chienfantome]

Well I'm convinced of the opposite, it's gonna make big. Way more than 2 Fast 2 Furious. I can see it going $200M.

[Aquamann2001]

Rocketman tracking at 20 mil opening. I may have a 3rd round bust.

[numbersix]

I think you'll be fine, Aqua. Bohemian's tracking underestimated its actuals, and the hold was amazing. I'd expect Rocketmann to open in the early 30s and make over $100m

[Walleye413]

I'm wondering if the R rating hurts it more than we thought. I think the teen crowd being able to see Bohemian Rhapsody drove that movie than we may have given them credit

[numbersix]

If I had to guess I'd say Bohemian skewed more older, but I could be wrong. Any stats on this guys?

EDIT: From BOM's report on its opening weekend: "The film played to an audience that was 51% female with 78% of the crowd coming in aged 25 years or older".

And older audiences tend not to come on opening weekend.

[transformers2]

It wouldn't surprise me to see Hobbs and Shaw be one of the lesser Fast & Furious movies in terms of box office. The main concept already happened in Furious 7 and the series entering the sci-fi genre feels like they aren't even trying at this point (you wouldn't see James Bond or Ethan Hunt fighting Dr. Octopus so why are they essentially doing that here?).

I could see it making less money than 2 Fast 2 Furious.

I'm not totally convinced it's going to end up in the range of Fate of the Furious/Fast Five/Fast and Furious 6 either, but I'd be rendered speechless if it made less than the unadjusted $127 mil gross of 2 Fast 2 Furious. It pretty much has August to itself, so it should be good for $150 at the very least.
'

[Shrykespeare]

STANDINGS (WEEK 3/52)

1. Six - $335,635,576 (3 films - Avengers: Endgame, The Intruder, Poms)
2. UDM - $94,295,005 (1 film - Detective Pikachu)
3. JAS - $56,818,067 (1 film - John Wick Chapter 3: Parabellum)
4. Buscemi - $25,664,963 (1 film - Long Shot)
5. Surfer - $23,204,362 (1 film - The Hustle)
6. Nicodemus - $21,614,623 (3 films - Uglydolls, Tolkien, Biggest Little Farm)
7. Spectre - $8,030,085 (1 film - A Dog's Journey)
8. Chien - $2,511,530 (1 film - The Sun is Also a Star)

aquamann - first film debuting 5/31
Walleye - first film debuting 6/7





5/24
Aladdin (UDN, 2nd round)
Booksmart (Six, 7th round)
Brightburn (Surfer, 9th round)



5/31
Godzilla: King of the Monsters (Spectre, 2nd round)
Rocketman (aquamann, 3rd round)
Ma (JAS, 5th round)



6/7
The Secret Life of Pets 2 (Walleye, 2nd round)
Dark Phoenix (UDM, 4th round)
Late Night (UDM, 7th round)



6/14
Men in Black International (Surfer, 2nd round)
Shaft (Walleye, 5th round)
The Dead Don't Die (Nicodemus, 14th round)

[Spectre]

Glad I’ve already got my first flop out of the way ... hopefully Godzilla doesn’t follow suit.

[Chienfantome]

Glad I’ve already got my first flop out of the way ... hopefully Godzilla doesn’t follow suit.

Flop ? What flop ? $8M is more than my 1st released film will ever get. Well actually I don't mind that much since it was a very late round pick just in order to not have to wait til July to see a film of mine open... but still...

[Spectre]

$8M for a 9th round pick is not a good start, especially when you consider where the other books opened. At least missing on a mid round pick only costs $10M to $20M

[Chienfantome]

Yeah, I'm just teasing you. But I'm sure t's gonna have decent legs and go to 20/25 million or something like that, which isn't a catastrophe for a 9th round pick. Some years, some end up with less than that in a Round 5 pick...

[NicodemustheSage]

Man. I caught "The Biggest Little Farm" last night on its way out of most theaters, and I am just bumfuzzled. It's one of the best documentaries I have EVER seen: Gorgeous, compelling, engaging, thought-provoking, and memorable. This film should be a cultural phenomenon, and it won't even do $1M. My slate is dogshit, so far.

...And, having incredulously say through the staggeringly unexciting and sterile "Terminator: Dark Fate" trailer a handful of times in the vain and desperate hope I'd somehow change my mind about it, I now doubt that film can do much more than $100M... And it may struggle to get there. What a freaking waste. I'm about as enthusiastic about that movie, now, as I am for my next toenail-trimming. No... It doesn't even interest me that much.

Looking forward to nabbing a top draft order pick next year, in whichever Division's the shittiest.

--Nico.