Buscemi wrote:You'll need your last three films to average $90 million. Seeing that the current estimates aren't favorable, I don't think you can do it.
Not as hard as I previously thought.
Justin Bieber's movie will be re-released with new footage this Friday, so hopefully all of the little girls will go back and it'll reach $90M or so - since it's already at $50M.
Mars Needs Moms should get at least $75M, probably more being in 3D and IMAX, and conservatively Hall Pass and Adjustment Bureau can each get to $40M a piece.
Using those estimates, that's $240M or so, so it'll be closer than expected.
Let's just hope Diary of A Wimpy Kid 2 flops
Alexandra Daddario: Eyes of a Demon, Face of My Future Ex-Wife
Keep in mind that The Adjustment Bureau tested poorly and will be facing Battle: Los Angeles one week later (a sci-fi film with better buzz and one that doesn't look as boring). As for Bieber, adding footage to films usually doesn't help the box office. See Spy Kids, 28 Days Later and Avatar (okay, it was the biggest film ever when it happened but the added footage did just $10 million).
And Diary of a Wimpy Kid 2 is tracking well (very early estimates have it at an opening in the 20's) and the first film grossed $64 million. I like its chances.
Everything on this post is strictly the opinion and only the opinion of Buscemi.
Tranny has now had all of his films released. He's had a good year, chasing me and even leading at one point (with such films as Iron Man 2, The Expendables, Takers, Jackass 3-D and The Fighter) but some disappointments (MacGruber, Killers, Faster) and average performers ended up taking him in the end. Better luck next year, Tranny.
In other news, W has passed Monkey for fourth and has two more films coming up. Could he get to a billion before it's all over? And Shryke looks like he could get out of last when Rango opens on March 4th. He'll need an opening of at least $40 million to do so.
Everything on this post is strictly the opinion and only the opinion of Buscemi.
1. Buscemi $1,261,450,438 (11/3/1)
2. Banks $1,033,391,367 (11/4/1)
3. Tranny $1,024,026,297 (12/2/0, out of contention)
4. Monkey $846,444,725 (12/3/0, out of contention)
5. W $846,315,165 (10/3/2)
6. Barca $806,077,688 (11/0/1, out of contention)
7. Shryke $763,915,345 (10/4/2)
8. Surfer $719,520,824 (9/2/3)
I still have the lead but Banks is looking to make a miracle rally with Justin Bieber, Hall Pass, The Adjustment Bureau and Friday's Mars Needs Moms, cutting my lead from $262 million to $228 million. My Diary of a Wimpy Kid 2 will attempt to make a goal line stand against his four horsemen. Meanwhile, W is only $129,000 from passing Monkey for fourth place. With Battle: Los Angeles opening on Friday, W should not only do it but also inch closer to a billion total before everything is finished. Shryke has finally climbed out of last and may pass Barca by the end of March. Surfer is now in last but has a healthy slate of titles coming up.
Right now, next year's draft will probably look like this (estimated finishes come from using Boxoffice as a reference point):
1. Buscemi $1.265 billion (11/3/1)
2. Banks $1.092 billion (12/4/0, out of contention)
3. Tranny $1.033 billion (12/2/0, out of contention)
4. W $909.3 million (11/3/1)
5. Monkey $846.9 million (12/2/0, out of contention)
6. Shryke $834.6 million (10/4/2)
7. Barca $806.1 million (11/0/1, out of contention)
8. Surfer $745.8 million (10/3/2)
With the season winding down, the contest is looking like it is over. Banks's Hail Mary pass of Mars Needs Moms fell way short and ended his improbable season (he drafted fifth) on a down note. He had a great season of Eclipse and Despicable Me but he made some mistakes late that cost him (dropping Limitless, not requesting No Strings Attached until it was too late). Better luck next year.
In other news, Shryke is making a nice late run and should pass Monkey for fifth by Sunday.
Everything on this post is strictly the opinion and only the opinion of Buscemi.
At the moment, I envision only four films with a chance to break $300 million in the next 12 months. If I pick fourth, that means I will definitely get one of them.
Can I suggest we start picking ASAP though, as we usually run a little long with the draft process, and decent movies are released when they could be picked.
