2018-19 Full Year Slates (Division B)

[Buscemi2]

I'm convinced The Upside will flop, to be honest. Between the mixed reviews, its long stay on the shelf, and Hart's current controversies (combined with his overexposure), I'm surprised it's not getting dumped into 1,000 theatres with little promotion.

A Dog Way's Home seems like a better prospect in terms of finding a film that tugs at the heartstrings, even though the trailer gives away everything.

[NicodemustheSage]

Oooh... I forgot about the Kevin Hart kerfuffle. Though maybe Ellen saved him.

[NicodemustheSage]

"Aquaman", if weekend predictions hold, will by Sunday night be running 15% ahead of "Guardians of the Galaxy" through 17 days in release, $260M to $222M.

Daayyyuuuummmmm.

https://deadline.com/2019/01/aquaman-es ... 202529013/

[Buscemi2]

I was going to mention that it's had a hell of a run. Despite mixed reviews and Spider-Man having a movie out at the same time, Aquaman's done very well.

I really didn't think it would spend three weeks in first.

[numbersix]

But Aquaman benefitted from Christmas hols, where guardians came out in August which is often dump territory. No way will Aquaman hold like Guardians did moving forward.

[NicodemustheSage]

Probably not, but it will still easily break $300M.

Not too shabby. "Bumblebee" and "Spider-verse" have also been impressive. "Mary Poppins" and "Vice" have shallowed, and "Mortal Engines" and "Marwen" positively shit the bed.

[Screen203]

I think that On The Basis of Sex will surprise next weekend. I could see it earning high-single to low-double digits. I've seen a decent amount of advertising and buzz feels relatively high.

[Buscemi2]

Limited numbers have been quite good. However, the lack of awards buzz (Jones was supposed to compete for an Oscar) hurts it.

On a related note, I'm not sure why Vice is still expected to get multiple nominations. I can't see any nominations outside of Best Makeup.

[NicodemustheSage]

Wow. I believe we may be on the cusp of a golden age of comic-book-inspired cinematic animated fare. It's long past time.

https://deadline.com/2019/01/spiderman- ... 202529510/

[Buscemi2]

Sony better give me my Marvel Tails movie.

Edit: I saw the results and it confirms my belief once again that the Golden Globes are being supplanted by the Critic's Choice Awards in terms of relevancy and getting the Oscar winners right. I get the Green Book wins (but why did Mortensen go empty-handed?) but what was with their love of Bohemian Rhapsody? And Bale over Mortensen? Larry Ellison had to have bought that Globe in the same way that I'm sure he bought its six nominations.

And I know The Wife did stellar business in the arthouse scene but did anyone have her beating Lady Gaga or McCarthy?

On a related note, A Star is Born no longer looks like Gold Derby's favorite (speaking of Gold Derby, those 32/10 odds they had on Roma winning Foreign Language Film look very favorable for gamblers) unless the Critic's Choice committee goes wild for it. And I'm convinced they already have a Favourite.

[undeadmonkey]

I completely didn't know the Globes were on last night, isn't it usually later on in January?

[NicodemustheSage]

...And right there, I think UDM nailed the problem. Boushh is correct. The Globes are an exercise in elitist masturbation only. Irrelevant and unwatched. Unwatchable, frankly.

Though I did enjoy the win for "Spider-Man: Into the Spider-verse".

[Shrykespeare]

I have updated the first post with all current earnings. Also: Nico the billionaire!


STANDINGS (WEEK 36/52)

1. UDM - $1,252,261,289 (9 films - Crazy Rich Asians, A Star is Born, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, The Favourite, Mary Queen of Scots, Ben is Back, Mortal Engines, On the Basis of Sex, Stan & Ollie; 4 finished)
2. Nicodemus - $1,022,214,260 (5 films - Bohemian Rhapsody, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindlewald, The Possession of Hannah Grace, The Mule, Aquaman; 9 finished)
3. Shryke - $892,971,853 (2 films - Beautiful Boy, Bumblebee; 8 finished)
4. Banks - $867,964,889 (7 films - Green Book, Creed 2, Vox Lux, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Mary Poppins Returns, Welcome to Marwen, Second Act; 7 finished)
5. W - $790,805,389 (4 films - Smallfoot, The Nutcracker and the Four Realms, Instant Family, Destroyer; 6 finished)
6. Brockster - $714,841,338 (3 films - Once Upon a Deadpool*, Holmes & Watson, Vice; 9 finished)
7. transformers - $681,520,419 (3 films - The Hate U Give, Dr. Seuss' The Grinch, Escape Room; 7 finished)
8. weissac - $641,141,952 (1 film - Robin Hood; 6 finished)
9. Ron B - $631,942,611 (4 films - The Old Man and the Gun, Venom, Widows, Ralph Breaks the Internet; 6 finished)
10. Surfer - $218,220,038 (1 film - If Beale Street Could Talk; 5 finished)


The following films would appear to be done:

Halloween (Nicodemus, 3rd round) = $159,342,015
Night School (transformers, 5th round) = $77,339,130
The House with a Clock in its Walls (Shryke, 3rd round) = $68,549,695
Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween (Ron B, 7th round) = $46,700,633
First Man (transformers, 4th round) = $44,936,545
Nobody's Fool (Ron B, 9th round) = $31,713,110
Overlord (W, 8th round) = $21,704,844
The Girl in the Spider's Web (Brockster, 7th round) = $14,841,338
Mid90s (Banks, WW) = $7,362,439
Boy Erased (Ron B, 12th round) = $6,788,692
Indivisible (Nicodemus, 16th round) = $3,511,417
Suspiria (Banks, 14th round) = $2,483,472
The Front Runner (Surfer, 14th round) = $2,000,105







1/11:
A Dog's Way Home (transformers, 8th round)
Replicas (Brockster, 11th round)
The Upside (Banks, WW)



1/18:
Glass (Surfer, 3rd round)



1/25:
The Kid Who Would Be King (weissac, 11th round)
Serenity (weissac, WW)



2/1:
Miss Bala (Ron B, 15th round)

[NicodemustheSage]

Waitwaitwait... HOW much does Brockster have, now?

[NicodemustheSage]

At this point I'm hoping to hit $1.4B on the Full Year. When I drafted my slate in April-May, I was aiming for $1.3B-$1.6B, so, I'll take it. I had my disappointments, perhaps none moreso than the very first film I drafted: "Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindlewald", which behaved like a mediocre third- or semi-solid fourth-round pick, not the slate-leader I chose it for.

I still think you're going to be right there with me at the end, Shrykester, along with UDM. weissac, Ron B, and Surfer are going to make strong pushes as we round the final turn and the third dolphin tips, as well; wouldn't be at all surprised to see at least one of their names joining us in the Top Five for Division B, when all is said and done. There are still some potential BIG earners on the release schedule: "Captain Marvel", "The LEGO Movie: The Second Part", "Dumbo", "Glass", "How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World", "Pet Sematary", "Hellboy", "Shazam!", "Alita: Battle Angel" -- and there could be a few moderate hits in there, too: "The Kid Who Would Be King", "Wonder Park", "Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral", "On the Basis of Sex", "What Men Want", "Captive State", "The Informer", "The Upside", "Replicas", "Miss Bala". There's at least a couple billion dollars left on the calendar, I'd wager, in domestic box office. Somebody's gonna walk away with a big chunk of it.