2017-18 Full Year Slates (Division A)

All league discussion for the currently in-play box office seasons.

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shrykespeare2
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2017-18 Full Year Slates (Division A)

Post by shrykespeare2 »

Geezer
5/19 Everything, Everything (9) - $34,121,140 (finished)
6/9 The Mummy (3) - $80,101,125 (finished)
6/23 The Big Sick (13) - $42,872,467 (finished)
7/14 Wish Upon (11) - $14,301,505 (finished)
7/21 Girls Trip (6) - $115,108,515 (finished)
9/22 The LEGO Ninjago Movie (2) - $59,281,555 (finished)
10/13 The Foreigner (14) - $34,393,507 (finished)
10/20 Geostorm (7) - $33,700,160 (finished)
10/20 Same Kind of Different as Me (15) - $6,357,835 (finished)
10/27 Jigsaw (10) - $38,052,832 (finished)
12/15 Star Wars: The Last Jedi (1) - $620,097,892
2/9 Fifty Shades Freed (4) - $100,379,125
2/9 Peter Rabbit (5) - $110,767,709
3/9 Strangers: Prey at Night (16) - $23,582,936


Chien
5/6 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (1) - $389,813,101 (finished)
5/12 Snatched (6) - $45,852,178 (finished)
7/21 Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (5) - $40,479,370 (finished)
9/15 American Assassin (8) - $36,249,674 (finished)
9/29 American Made (7) - $51,342,000 (finished)
11/3 Last Flag Flying (WW) - $965,481 (finished)
12/8 Just Getting Started (12) - $5,973,430 (finished)
12/20 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (3) - $402,769,456
12/25 Molly's Game (11) - $28,780,744 (finished)
1/12 Paddington 2 (9) - $40,442,052 (finished)
1/19 12 Strong (10) - $45,500,164 (finished)
3/9 The Hurricane Heist (WW) - $6,086,529
3/23 Pacific Rim: Uprising (4) - $45,836,225
3/23 Midnight Sun (14) - $7,671,529
3/30 Ready Player One (2) - $53,710,325
4/6 Lean on Pete (WW)


JohnErle
5/24 Baywatch (3) - $58,060,186 (finished)
7/7 A Ghost Story (16) - $1,596,371 (finished)
8/4 Kidnap (15) - $30,718,107 (finished)
9/22 Kingsman: The Golden Circle (2) - $100,234,838 (finished)
9/22 Battle of the Sexes (9) - $12,638,526 (finished)
10/20 The Snowman (8) - $6,670,765 (finished)
10/27 Suburbicon (6) - $5,775,178 (finished)
11/17 Justice League (1) - $229,024,295 (finished)
12/22 The Post (5) - $81,692,844
12/25 Phantom Thread (10) - $20,956,300 (finished)
3/2 Red Sparrow (4) - $45,679,149
3/16 Love, Simon (13) - $32,108,320
3/23 Isle of Dogs (12) - $6,050,860
4/6 A Quiet Place (14)


UDM
5/12 King Arthur: Legend of the Sword (6) - $39,175,066 (finished)
5/26 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (1) - $172,558,876 (finished)
7/28 Atomic Blonde (7) - $51,573,925 (finished)
9/8 Home Again (11) - $27,020,284 (finished)
10/6 Blade Runner 2049 (3) - $92,054,159 (finished)
10/27 All I See is You (12) - $217,644 (finished)
11/10 Murder on the Orient Express (4) - $102,826,543 (finished)
11/22 Darkest Hour (8) - $56,361,300 (finished)
11/3 The Man Who Invented Christmas (16) - $5,676,487 (finished)
11/24 Call Me By Your Name (14) - $17,973,280
12/22 Pitch Perfect 3 (2) - $104,897,530 (finished)
3/9 Gringo (WW) - $4,964,754
3/9 Thoroughbreds (WW) - $2,830,775 (finished)
4/6 The Miracle Season (WW)
4/11 Beirut (WW)
4/13 Truth or Dare (WW)


W
6/16 Cars 3 (2) - $152,901,115 (finished)
7/7 Spider-Man: Homecoming (1) - $334,201,140 (finished)
7/28 The Emoji Movie (3) - $86,089,513 (finished)
8/11 The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature (7) - $28,370,522 (finished)
8/18 The Hitman's Bodyguard (5) - $75,468,583 (finished)
10/13 Marshall (9) - $10,051,659 (finished)
10/13 Goodbye, Christopher Robin (10) - $1,735,251 (finished)
10/27 Thank You For Your Service (12) - $9,479,390 (finished)
12/22 Father Figures (8) - $17,501,244 (finished)
3/16 Tomb Raider (4) - $50,715,273
3/28 Paul, Apostle of Christ (WW) - $11,488,702
3/30 God's Not Dead: A Light in Darkness (WW) - $2,689,677
4/13 Borg/McEnroe (WW)
4/20 Super Troopers 2 (15)


Shaan
5/19 Alien: Covenant (3) - $74,262,031 (finished)
6/16 Rough Night (4) - $22,105,643 (finished)
6/16 All Eyez On Me (5) - $44,922,302 (finished)
6/30 Despicable Me 3 (1) - $264,624,300 (finished)
8/4 Detroit (7) - $16,790,139 (finished)
8/11 Annabelle: Creation (6) - $102,092,201 (finished)
9/22 Stronger (16) - $4,211,129 (finished)
10/6 The Mountain Between Us (8) - $30,348,555 (finished)
10/20 Boo 2! A Madea Halloween (9) - $47,319,572 (finished)
11/17 The Star (2) - $40,852,824 (finished)
12/1 The Shape of Water (10) - $63,500,483
12/1 The Disaster Artist (11) - $21,120,616 (finished)
4/27 Animal Crackers (13)
4/27 Avengers: Infinity War (WW)


aquamann
6/2 Captain Underpants (4) - $73,921,000 (finished)
6/23 Transformers: The Last Knight (2) - $130,168,683 (finished)
6/28 Baby Driver (9) - $107,825,862 (finished)
8/4 The Dark Tower (3) - $50,701,325 (finished)
11/3 Thor: Ragnarok (1) - $315,058,289 (finished)
12/8 I, Tonya (WW) - $29,942,428
1/5 Insidious: The Last Key (11) - $67,347,895 (finished)
2/2 Winchester (13) - $25,091,816 (finished)
2/16 Early Man (14) - $8,267,544 (finished)
2/23 Game Night (6) - $64,991,002
2/23 Annihilation (8) - $32,158,866
3/16 7 Days in Entebbe (WW) - $3,189,220 (finished)
3/23 Sherlock Gnomes (5) - $22,822,216
3/30 Tyler Perry's Acrimony (WW) - $17,170,707
4/6 You Were Never Really Here (WW)
4/20 I Feel Pretty (WW)


Six
5/19 Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul (8) - $20,738,724 (finished)
6/2 Wonder Woman (1) - $412,563,408 (finished)
6/9 It Comes at Night (12) - $13,985,117 (finished)
7/14 War for the Planet of the Apes (2) - $146,880,162 (finished)
8/25 All Saints (11) - $5,802,208 (finished)
9/8 It (3) - $327,481,748 (finished)
9/15/13 Mother! (6) - $17,800,004 (finished)
10/6 The Florida Project (WW) - $5,904,366 (finished)
11/3 Lady Bird (WW) - $48,945,700
11/10 Daddy's Home 2 (4) - $104,029,443 (finished)
11/10 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (10) - $54,228,423
12/25 All the Money in the World (WW) - $25,113,707 (finished)
1/12 The Commuter (9) - $36,343,848 (finished)
3/30 Finding Your Feet (WW) - $60,132
4/6 Blockers (7)
4/27 Disobedience (WW)


Walleye
6/9 Megan Leavey (14) - $13,406,883 (finished)
6/30 The House (3) - $25,584,504 (finished)
7/28 An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (11) - $3,496,795 (finished)
9/29 Flatliners (9) - $16,883,115 (finished)
10/20 Only the Brave (8) - $18,343,983 (finished)
11/17 Wonder (6) - $132,422,809 (finished)
11/17 Roman Israel, Esq. (10) - $11,950,754 (finished)
11/22 Coco (1) - $209,499,991
12/20 The Greatest Showman (4) - $172,069,900
12/22 Hostiles (12) - $29,788,907
1/26 Maze Runner: The Death Cure (5) - $57,865,997
2/23 Every Day (WW) - $6,102,076 (finished)
3/9 A Wrinkle in Time (2) - $83,399,038
3/16 I Can Only Imagine (WW) - $55,271,331
3/23 Unsane (WW) - $6,832,037
4/6 Chappaquiddick (WW)


Spectre
7/21 Dunkirk (2) - $188,045,546 (finished)
8/18 Logan Lucky (8) - $27,780,977 (finished)
10/6 My Little Pony (6) - $21,885,107 (finished)
10/13 Happy Death Day (10) - $55,683,845 (finished)
11/1 A Bad Moms Christmas (3) - $72,110,659 (finished)
12/15 Ferdinand (4) - $84,074,567
12/22 Downsizing (5) - $24,449,754 (finished)
1/12 Proud Mary (11) - $20,877,013 (finished)
1/19 Den of Thieves (13) - $44,947,622 (finished)
2/9 The 15:17 to Paris (WW) - $36,174,973
2/16 Black Panther (1) - $650,923,549
2/16 Samson (WW) - $4,713,353
3/2 Death Wish (16) - $33,410,244
4/13 Rampage (7)
4/20 Traffik (WW)
4/20 Duck Duck Goose (WW)
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undeadmonkey
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Re: 2017-18 Full Year Slates (Division A)

Post by undeadmonkey »

Sigh, great way to start the year. I already was hoping for only $50 from King Arthur but it won't even get that

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numbersix
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Re: 2017-18 Full Year Slates (Division A)

Post by numbersix »

I'm not too sure about my slate either, UDM, particularly my first film which is out this weekend.

I think my ultimate goal is to just not get relegated. My overall strategy this year was to focus on picks #5-#11 and try to get some mid level hits, something I've never quite gotten the hang of. Last year I basically won through the strength of my first 5 picks, and the surprise of picking up Get Out on the WW

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Re: 2017-18 Full Year Slates (Division A)

Post by Buscemi »

On the bright side, Monkey, King Arthur did make $50. I helped contribute to $8.60 of that. ;)

Yeah Six, the new Diary of a Wimpy Kid really just looks like an excuse for Fox to hold onto the rights. And releasing it the same day as Alien: Covenant suggests that Fox is putting as little into marketing as possible. BoxOffice.com believes that it will take in $29 million but I think it will be lucky to gross $20 million. It's been five years since the last film and it's less of a sequel than a total reboot (as 2010/2011's audience is much different than 2017's audience). I don't expect much of a result (I'm expecting a $6 million opening and an $18 million finish as kids will still be seeing Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 while waiting on the onslaught of June titles with wider kid appeal) but it shouldn't hurt you either.
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Re: 2017-18 Full Year Slates (Division A)

Post by Chienfantome »

At first sight it seems all slates are pretty much balanced. I can't pick one and say "this is the slate to beat". Even though Geezer has The last Jedi, of course, but the rest of his slate isn't necessary that strong, there is room to be not that far from him.

I would say though, that indeed UDM, your slate might look the weakest right now, not just because Arthur is already bombing, but because you didn't go the easier way with your #1 pick, and might have done the ID4 2 mistake I made last year, and your #3 and #4 are films that could stay well below $100M. Fortunately you've got Pitch Perfect 3. But if Blade runner and Orient Express catch an audience, and Pirates does better than expected, then yes, you'll forget about Arthur. But your slate is the one with the most question marks for me.
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Re: 2017-18 Full Year Slates (Division A)

Post by Buscemi »

Am I the only one who does not see Blade Runner 2049 being a hit? Yes, Blade Runner is a beloved film but it's always been more of a cult film. And I'm not sure if people were really demanding a sequel (especially since the original has such a perfect ending). I feel people are putting their love of the original and extreme faith of Villeneuve (whose American work is some of the most overpraised on the Internet) ahead of the realities of doing an unneeded sequel 35 years after the original (and before you say Tron: Legacy, remember that was a Christmas release from Disney).

But the biggest obstacle is that it's facing My Little Pony. Yes, Lionsgate has a dreadful history of promoting animated features (or even knowing what animated features are actually good, for every Shaun the Sheep Movie they have two Norm of the Norths) but it's the kind of film that doesn't even need marketing. I see that film playing like Gone Girl did three years ago: hardcore fans (Fincher in the case of Gone Girl, Bronies in the case of My Little Pony) go on opening weekend, the intended target audience goes in later weeks and it manages to hold really well into Thanksgiving.
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Re: 2017-18 Full Year Slates (Division A)

Post by numbersix »

Yeah I'm somewhat sceptical of it being huge, despite being a fan of the original and of Villeneuve. I don't think My Little Pony will be a huge factor - that film will draw the kids and those weird Bronies, and Blade Runner will be for sane adults. But you're right in that it's a cult film. The cast will help the film, but I'm thinking under $75m rather than the $100m or so some are expecting. That said, who would have thought Arrival would make $100m in the US alone?

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Re: 2017-18 Full Year Slates (Division A)

Post by Chienfantome »

Yes Boosch, that is exactly why I wrote UDM's slate looks the weakest to me, because he has no surefire hit on his slate. Pirates as #1 was a risk, Blade Runner as #3 was a risk, and Murder on the Orient Express as #4 is also all but a certainty at the BO, that's why I said both of them could fall way behind 100.
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Re: 2017-18 Full Year Slates (Division A)

Post by undeadmonkey »

Well, I might be eating my words come next week and come November, but at the moment i'm not really worried about those picks. I'm expecting $200M from Pirates and if the movie is well received there could be a much bigger upside.

Like i had explained before, the animated films don't look particularly strong to me, I think Cars 3 will be Pixars weakest since Good Dinosaur or Brave and Minions was already on a downward trend, expecting Despicable 3 to do the same. Wonder Woman is looking quite strong now, but it had terrible early word of mouth and I just didnt want Spiderman 6 reboot 2 or Transformers.

I'm expecting about $100M with Blade Runner and i'm not basing it on the fact that it's a sequel, it will have to win audience over on it's on merit. But the trailer looks fantastic and Villenueve brought Arrival to such heights, plus we've seen sci-fi break out a few times already in that early October slot.

Lastly, I think Orient looks fun, not really sure what it could do Box Office wise, hoping for something along the lines of $80M-$100M. Though I was a little disappointed it moved away from the Thanksgiving slot after i picked it...

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Re: 2017-18 Full Year Slates (Division A)

Post by Buscemi »

I think Cars 3 will do just fine. It's a billion dollar brand on merchandise alone and the target audience doesn't read reviews. It also has a two week head start on Despicable Me 3 (which seems to be suffering some fatigue as this one is choosing to return to the franchise's origins of a supervillain and his kids). As for comparing it to The Good Dinosaur, that was a difficult production that was an afterthought for Disney in the build-up to Star Wars. It probably would have been better served in the summer but that would have also meant pushing Finding Dory.
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Re: 2017-18 Full Year Slates (Division A)

Post by numbersix »

But look how Cars 2 fared in relation to Cars. I can't see Cars 3 topping the second film, which is why UDM was right to skip it. Despicable Me 3, however, should do incredibly well.

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Re: 2017-18 Full Year Slates (Division A)

Post by transformers2 »

I would not be the least bit surprised if Cars 3 ended up being the lowest-grossing Pixar movie ever. Cars 2 made significantly less than the 1st installment and even with all the Lightning McQueen and Mater-merchandise that was sold back in the day, I don't think its popular enough in 2017 to get into the $175-200 mil range that Pixar usually sleepwalks into.
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Re: 2017-18 Full Year Slates (Division A)

Post by Spectre »

I would be... even if it's total garbage, I can't see it falling to Good Dinosaur levels (of course I didn't see The Good Dinosaur falling to those levels either so...)

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Re: 2017-18 Full Year Slates (Division A)

Post by undeadmonkey »

I don't think it matters to Disney, Cars doesnt need to do well, it's basically a movie to refresh kids minds and to keep selling toys.

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Re: 2017-18 Full Year Slates (Division A)

Post by Buscemi »

Cars 2 was released against a bunch of other family films (Kung Fu Panda 2, Mr. Popper's Penguins, Zookeeper, the last Harry Potter, Winnie the Pooh, The Smurfs) and a few other films that had crossover appeal (X-Men: First Class, the third Transformers, Captain America). The first Cars was basically unopposed until the second Pirates of the Caribbean (Nacho Libre, despite the PG rating and Nickelodeon involved, was really more for teens and adults). Cars 2 was also a much darker film that its previous entry, which definitely impacted the final take.

Cars 3 comes in between Captain Underpants (which looks to be a minor hit at best) and Despicable Me 3 (which I already talked about) and is apparently supposed to return to basics, despite its teaser trailer suggesting an edgier film. Also, this year is a lot more barren in terms of family fare (I can't see families taking their kids to another bloated Transformers film while Spider-Man seems to going more for teens). It should stick around until The Emoji Movie (which to me looks like a bomb like Smurfs: The Lost Village was) opens.
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