ReelSociety Forums


Your home for all Reel and Real discussions.

2017-18 Full Year Draft Thread (Division A)

All league discussion for the currently in-play box office seasons.

Moderators: Buscemi, BarcaRulz, Geezer, W

Re: 2017-18 Full Year Draft Thread (Division A)

Postby Chienfantome » May 13th, 2017, 9:44 am

And the draft is officially over in A !
Fluctuat nec mergitur
User avatar
Chienfantome
The Terminator
 
Posts: 8715
Joined: May 29th, 2010, 4:22 am
Location: Paris, France

Advertisement

 

Re: 2017-18 Full Year Draft Thread (Division A)

Postby Shrykespeare » May 13th, 2017, 5:03 pm

Drafts are now complete in both divisions.

Six, can you set up the Waiver Wire threads?

I will set up the threads with everyone's complete roster tomorrow.
Happy 60th birthday Angela Bassett! (8/16/18)
User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
 
Posts: 11756
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: 2017-18 Full Year Draft Thread (Division A)

Postby numbersix » May 14th, 2017, 7:12 am

Remind me, in terms of the waiver wire starting position, is it the same order as Round 1 of the draft or the reverse?
User avatar
numbersix
Keyser Soze
 
Posts: 9562
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 2:34 pm

Re: 2017-18 Full Year Draft Thread (Division A)

Postby Shrykespeare » May 14th, 2017, 1:16 pm

numbersix wrote:Remind me, in terms of the waiver wire starting position, is it the same order as Round 1 of the draft or the reverse?


I'm pretty sure it's the reverse.
Happy 60th birthday Angela Bassett! (8/16/18)
User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
 
Posts: 11756
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: 2017-18 Full Year Draft Thread (Division A)

Postby numbersix » May 15th, 2017, 1:25 pm

Thoughts on best pick per round, excluding my own, of course:

Round 1: Star Wars - Duh
Round 2: A Wrinkle in Time - this could really surprise next Spring. I would have nabbed it sooner but Wonder Woman felt like a safer bet
Round 3: Baywatch - Looking more appealing than Pirates 5 that weekend. Could hit $150m
Round 4: Ferdinand - If it moves away from Star Wars this could do well.
Round 5: All Eyez on Me - with any sort of decent WOM this could come close to getting Straight Outta Compton numbers.
Round 6: Wonder - It tested so well, and that can deliver a film a huge boost. Should play well with older audiences.
Round 7: Rampage - If it makes its date
Round 8: Annihilation - again, if it makes its date
Round 9: Marshall - despite the distributor, this could be a surprise hit if it tries to be a Hidden Figures type of movie.
Round 10: Horse Soldiers - A bad date but it still could surprise.
Round 11: Proud Mary - see above.
Round 12: LAbyrinth - if it comes out it could be good for $50m or so
Round 13: Simon vs. The Homosapiens Agenda - a popular book could help this to $25m+
Round 14: Call Me By Your Name - Reviews are overwhelmingly positive, and if it catches on it could be another Moonlight
Round 15: Can't see Deadpool shifting so I'm going for Kidnap, if this new distributor can sell it as another The Call
Round 16: Who knows!
User avatar
numbersix
Keyser Soze
 
Posts: 9562
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 2:34 pm

Re: 2017-18 Full Year Draft Thread (Division A)

Postby Spectre » May 15th, 2017, 1:57 pm

I guess I'll do this too for fun... Best picks excluding mine in my opinion:

Round 1: Pick 6 - Despicable Me 3 - Ok, it's Star Wars... but getting a $300M floor pick at the 6th slot is robbery.
Round 2: Pick 4 - Transformers: The Last Knight - It'll probably decline from the previous installment but if it does $200M it's an easy win.
Round 3: Pick 8 - It - I may be wrong but I think this has absolutely massive upside and love it at the back of this round.
Round 4: Pick 10 - Fifty Shades Freed - It'll be hot garbage but it should also do around $100M which is killer for a borderline 5th rounder.
Round 5: Pick 3 - The Post - With Spielberg and that cast, it could do a killing during the holidays.
Round 6: Pick 6 - 2017 Cloverfield Movie - These have all done well and even if it hits $80M like the rest, it's good value.
Round 7: Pick 2 - American Made - I know Jack Reacher flopped but how often do you get Tom Cruise in the 7th?
Round 8: Pick 4 - Annihilation - Could also be the worst pick of the round if it moves but it's a home run if it places in the game.
Round 9: Pick 2 - Paddington 2 - Needs to confirm a date but should be easy money if it comes out.
Round 10: Pick 10 - Saw: Legacy - Nowhere near as sexy as most of the awards bait that went here but it's a great floor pick at the end of the round.
Round 11: Pick 7 - Insidious: Chapter 4 - Another low upside pick but it also has a high floor assuming it only dips a bit from previous installments.
Round 12: Pick 5 - LAbyrinth - Assuming it lands on the calendar, it could easily outperform everything else this round. One of my favorite TBAs.
Round 13: Pick 5 - Soldado - Another TBA but as the sequel to a quality movie, it could do good business.
Round 14: Pick 8 - A Quiet Place - Call me a sucker for floor films late but if this sticks, it'll do $20M+
Round 15: Pick 6 - The Glass Castle - I don't know how many of the TBAs taken here actually make it in but this will at least get some awards buzz.
Round 16: Pick 8 - A Ghost Story - Shrug. It has good reviews so I'll pretend A24 won't run it too limited to matter.
User avatar
Spectre
Marty McFly
 
Posts: 865
Joined: October 27th, 2009, 10:31 pm

Re: 2017-18 Full Year Draft Thread (Division A)

Postby Walleye413 » May 15th, 2017, 2:03 pm

Very interesting. So here's my picks on best breakout potential. Mostly, excluding my own :)

1 - Pirates: I know we've hashed this one apart already, but if the word of mouth is as strong as it sounds - this could be a huge surprise. And with nothing else in it's way for weeks, I think it will be a great pick.

2 - Kingsman: This is going to make a ton of money. One of the few sequels this year that people actually want to see.

3 - It: Biggest horror movie of the year. without question.

4 - Tomb Raider: I bet this makes Kong money. Only in the 4th round

5 - The Post: Never underestimate a motivated Spielberg. And he is really motivated on this one.

6 - God Particle: What if the sci-fi movie we've all be looking for is this?

7 - Rampage: The Rock can sell anything!

8 - Logan Lucky: It's all about the distribution, but I think that won't be a problem. And in August people will be desperate for something good to watch.

9 - I love this whole round. Honestly, for a later round, I don't think there's a dud in here.

10 - Got to pick my own: Inner City. Assuming it comes out, this will be the breakout of the round.

11 - Molly's Game. Sure Sorkin can be annoying, but when he nails it, it's huge.

12 - Anubis: This sounds really good, and clever, if it gets done in time it could be like a Dreamworks performer.

13 - Simon vs. the Homo Sapiens Agenda: for all the reasons everyone else has stated

14 - Universal Monster movie: no way it gets done in time - but dang, if it does. . .

15 - Got to pick my own here again. I think Fighting with my Family will be the best pick of this round. Why? The Rock!

16 - The Man who invented Christmas could easily way over perform here. Especially for a 16th rounder.
User avatar
Walleye413
Borat
 
Posts: 1295
Joined: November 17th, 2009, 1:17 am

Re: 2017-18 Full Year Draft Thread (Division A)

Postby Buscemi » May 15th, 2017, 3:08 pm

I think MGM will save Fighting with My Family for the summer. I can't see it conflicting with Wrestlemania or Rampage (which I also expect to get pushed to Summer).

I expect God Particle to make less than 10 Cloverfield Lane, making Paramount question why they thought a Cloverfield franchise was a good idea when the movies were never very popular to begin with (they're more expensive than Blumhouse productions and you can't sell sci-fi in the same way you can horror).

Simon vs. The Homosapiens Agenda will play like The Perks of Being a Wallflower at best. It will only play well in the big cities and 13 Reasons Why will be a distant afterthought by the time it opens.

And if no one went to see Jessica Chastain fight gun lobbyists and few saw her fight Nazis, not many will watch her run a high stakes poker game. Besides, audiences watching people play poker was a mid 2000's thing.
Everything on this post is strictly the opinion and only the opinion of Buscemi.

Spotify: http://open.spotify.com/user/1244530511/playlist/6exMMnE4Kpu99GBj16VEmr
User avatar
Buscemi
CONGRATS! You may now chose your own rank!
 
Posts: 16164
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 11:14 am
Location: Baltimore State Hospital for the Criminally Insane

Re: 2017-18 Full Year Draft Thread (Division A)

Postby Chienfantome » May 16th, 2017, 10:16 am

Alright, here are my favorite picks of each round excluding my own :

R1 : Star Wars, of course, but behind it, I'd say Spidey, the Marvel universe will help it make numbers closer to the Raimi films.
R2 : Kingsman is gonna make even more money than the first, but Pitch Perfect 3 is probably the one I would have picked if I had had the choice that round.
R3 : Dwayne Johnson + Summer + Beach bodies = Baywatch.
R4 : The first Daddy's home was a big success, but I wonder if it's not gonna do a Neighbours 2 and lose all the steam of the first, so I would go with the safe Ferdinand. But The Gratest showman might be a breakout.
R5 : New Mutants if it makes its date. hitman's bodyguard might be a late summer hit, but I would have picked it in 6th round rather than 5th. If either The post or The Current War connect in the award season, they will be solid picks.
R6 : I'm not convinced on Wonder. I still think we might make a big fuss of a smaller think than we think. It might end up in the 30-40 million area, it could break out and make 80 or 90. I would choose Game night or the Cloverfield film here.
R7 : The studio is beginning promo at Cannes for Robin Hood, maybe they'll push it hard in the coming months, maybe this one.
R8 : I don't understand why everyone is so high on Annihilation. As much as I crave to see the film, BO-wise, I'm cautious about it. Granite Mountain is my favourite here.
R9 : If the film is good and well sold, maybe Marshall. Baby Driver won't make much but it's a good R9 pick too.
R10 : UNiversal + Blum, I would have picked Half to Death this round. If Inner City gets released, it's gonna be a solid pick.
R11 : Insidious 4 should have been picked earlier, it's a good R11 pick.
R12 : If Anubis makes its date it's gonna be a steal at this round.
R13 : Winchester. The combination of Mirren in a genre film is gonna be interesting at the BO.
R14 : Untouchable. The original was the biggest global hit of an non-english spoken film that year, it stars Kevin Hart, if it gets released it will be a great pick. I soooo wanted it, I thought "I'll wait the last 3 rounds". damn. Call me by your name is also a good pick, it's gonna be a strong awards contender.
R15 : Not many films I like, a couple that won't get released on time, a few without even a distrib, so I would pick Kidnap or The Glass Castle.
R16 : Death wish if it gets realsed, and The man who invented Christmas, which wasn't even on my radar.
Fluctuat nec mergitur
User avatar
Chienfantome
The Terminator
 
Posts: 8715
Joined: May 29th, 2010, 4:22 am
Location: Paris, France

Re: 2017-18 Full Year Draft Thread (Division A)

Postby Buscemi » May 16th, 2017, 10:34 am

I think The Hitman's Bodyguard will flop. It's another Ryan Reynolds film where he's not Deadpool (Life was a big flop for Sony) and the director's last film was The Expendables 3. Plus, I bet that Bodyguard parody poster is the best joke for the entire film.

If King Arthur: Legend of the Sword couldn't take off, neither will Robin Hood in the future. Plus, we already got a Robin Hood film in this decade that wasn't the hit Universal hoped for.

Granite Mountain might seem like an awards contender on paper but it is a Miles Teller film and he's box office poison now. Also, Kosinski is unproven with a non-sci-fi film. I'll probably just see it for Jennifer Connelly.

Marshall looks like a dump for Open Road. October 13th is insanely crowded for adult-aimed films and Reginald Hudlin is known more nowadays for his panned run of Black Panther (which lost him the directing job of that film) than directing House Party.

Insidious I think has run its course. Can they really go any farther with it (especially since the person who brought the series to Universal is no longer there)?
Everything on this post is strictly the opinion and only the opinion of Buscemi.

Spotify: http://open.spotify.com/user/1244530511/playlist/6exMMnE4Kpu99GBj16VEmr
User avatar
Buscemi
CONGRATS! You may now chose your own rank!
 
Posts: 16164
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 11:14 am
Location: Baltimore State Hospital for the Criminally Insane

Re: 2017-18 Full Year Draft Thread (Division A)

Postby Chienfantome » May 17th, 2017, 6:09 am

I think you judge the films in their globality, Boosch, and that's not the point of such a list. Sure Robin Hood won't be a box-office smash, but in the 7th round, it's a good catch, as is Granite Mountain, an ensemble and not a Miles Teller film, in the 8th round, or Insidious in the 11th. Insidious 4 is guaranteed to be close to $50M, and in the 11th, you won't find many films that offer such a number.
Fluctuat nec mergitur
User avatar
Chienfantome
The Terminator
 
Posts: 8715
Joined: May 29th, 2010, 4:22 am
Location: Paris, France

Previous

Return to Currently In-Play Box Office Leagues

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest