2016-17 Full-Year Slates (Division B)

[Shrykespeare]

STANDINGS (WEEK 22/52)

1. numbersix - $755,113,278 (7 films - Finding Dory, Nerve, Bad Moms, Florence Foster Jenkins, The Light Between Oceans, Morgan, Bridget Jones' Baby; 1 finished)
2, Shaan - $745,182,352 (4 films - Jason Bourne, Ben-Hur, Blair Witch, Storks; 3 finished)
3. transformers - $656,473,620 (5 films - The Secret Life of Pets, Cafe Society, War Dogs, Hands of Stone, When the Bough Breaks; 2 finished)
4. Buscemi - $604,071,783 (3 films - Suicide Squad, Hell or High Water, Kubo and the Two Strings; 4 finished)
5. weissac - $480,302,815 (4 films - Star Trek Beyond, Mechanic: Resurrection, Snowden, Masterminds; 3 finished)
6. leestu - $410,148,564 (3 films - Sausage Party, The Wild Life, The Magnificent Seven; 3 finished)
7. jas - $380,909,741 (6 films - Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates, Pete's Dragon, Don't Breathe, Sully, Queen of Katwe; 1 finished)
8. Shryke - $274,889,828 (5 films - The BFG, Ghostbusters, Nine Lives, The Disappointments Room, Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children; 2 finished)
9. Walleye - $203,698,172 (0 films - 3 finished)
10. Ron B - $131,288,321 (2 films - Ice Age: Collision Course, Deepwater Horizon; 1 finished)



The following films would appear to be done:

Lights Out (jas) - $67,268,835
The Shallows (Shaan) - $55,121,623
The Infiltrator (Buscemi) - $15,431,420



10/7:
The Girl on the Train (Walleye, 4th round)
The Birth of a Nation (numbersix, 7th round)
Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life (Walleye, 11th round)



10/14:
The Accountant (Shryke, 7th round)
Kevin Hart: What Now? (Ron B, 12th round)
Max Steel (Shryke, WW)



10/21:
Jack Reacher: Never Go Back (leestu, 6th round)
Boo! A Madea Halloween (Shaan, 8th round)
Ouija: Origin of Evil (Buscemi, 11th round)
Keeping Up with the Joneses (leestu, WW)
Ameriacn Pastoral (Buscemi, WW)
Moonlight (transformers, WW)



10/28:
Inferno (Buscemi, 5th round)

[Shrykespeare]

STANDINGS (WEEK 23/52)

1. numbersix - $764,900,412 (7 films - Finding Dory, Bad Moms, Florence Foster Jenkins, The Light Between Oceans, Bridget Jones' Baby, The Birth of a Nation; 3 finished)
2, Shaan - $757,953,506 (3 films - Jason Bourne, Blair Witch, Storks; 4 finished)
3. transformers - $657,917,774 (4 films - The Secret Life of Pets, War Dogs, Hands of Stone, When the Bough Breaks; 3 finished)
4. Buscemi - $606,587,226 (3 films - Suicide Squad, Hell or High Water, Kubo and the Two Strings; 4 finished)
5. weissac - $488,386,158 (4 films - Star Trek Beyond, Mechanic: Resurrection, Snowden, Masterminds; 3 finished)
6. leestu - $425,050,151 (3 films - Sausage Party, The Wild Life, The Magnificent Seven; 3 finished)
7. jas - $393,841,054 (6 films - Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates, Pete's Dragon, Don't Breathe, Sully, Queen of Katwe; 1 finished)
8. Shryke - $297,592,186 (5 films - The BFG, Ghostbusters, Nine Lives, The Disappointments Room, Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children; 2 finished)
9. Walleye - $235,112,874 (2 films - The GIrl on the Train, Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life;3 finished)
10. Ron B - $149,461,723 (2 films - Ice Age: Collision Course, Deepwater Horizon; 1 finished)



The following films would appear to be done:

Nerve (numbersix) - $38,583,626
Ben Hur (Shaan) - $26,410,477
Cafe Society (transformers) - $11,103,205
Morgan (numbersix) - $3,915,251





10/14:
The Accountant (Shryke, 7th round)
Kevin Hart: What Now? (Ron B, 12th round)
Max Steel (Shryke, WW)



10/21:
Jack Reacher: Never Go Back (leestu, 6th round)
Boo! A Madea Halloween (Shaan, 8th round)
Ouija: Origin of Evil (Buscemi, 11th round)
Keeping Up with the Joneses (leestu, WW)
Ameriacn Pastoral (Buscemi, WW)
Moonlight (transformers, WW)



10/28:
Inferno (Buscemi, 5th round)



11/4:
Doctor Strange (leestu, 2nd round)
Trolls (Shaan, 4th round)
Hacksaw Ridge (Ron B, 11th round)
Bleed For This (transformers, 12th round)
Loving (Buscemi, 13th round)

[Shrykespeare]

STANDINGS (WEEK 24/52)

1. numbersix - $771,736,824 (6 films - Finding Dory, Bad Moms, Florence Foster Jenkins, The Light Between Oceans, Morgan, Bridget Jones' Baby, The Birth of a Nation; 1 finished)
2, Shaan - $767,739,047 (3 films - Jason Bourne, Blair Witch, Storks; 3 finished)
3. transformers - $658,712,943 (3 films - The Secret Life of Pets, War Dogs, When the Bough Breaks; 3 finished)
4. Buscemi - $608,221,858 (3 films - Suicide Squad, Hell or High Water, Kubo and the Two Strings; 4 finished)
5. weissac - $492,763,602 (4 films - Star Trek Beyond, Mechanic: Resurrection, Snowden, Masterminds; 3 finished)
6. leestu - $434,445,954 (2 films - Sausage Party, The Magnificent Seven; 4 finished)
7. jas - $401,969,275 (4 films - Pete's Dragon, Don't Breathe, Sully, Queen of Katwe; 2 finished)
8. Shryke - $339,480,499 (6 films - Ghostbusters, Nine Lives, The Disappointments Room, Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children, The Accountaint, Max Steel; 3 finished)
9. Walleye - $264,386,739 (2 films - The Girl on the Train, Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life; 3 finished)
10. Ron B - $172,399,003 (3 films - Ice Age: Collision Course, Deepwater Horizon, Kevin Hart: What Now?; 1 finished)



The following films would appear to be done:

The BFG (Shryke, 3rd round) - $55,483,770
Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates (jas, 5th round) - $46,009,673
The Wild Life (leestu, 12th round) - $8,005,586
Hands of Stone (transformers, 13th round) - $4,712,792





10/21:
Jack Reacher: Never Go Back (leestu, 6th round)
Boo! A Madea Halloween (Shaan, 8th round)
Ouija: Origin of Evil (Buscemi, 11th round)
Keeping Up with the Joneses (leestu, WW)
Ameriacn Pastoral (Buscemi, WW)
Moonlight (transformers, WW)



10/28:
Inferno (Buscemi, 5th round)



11/4:
Doctor Strange (leestu, 2nd round)
Trolls (Shaan, 4th round)
Hacksaw Ridge (Ron B, 11th round)
Bleed For This (transformers, 12th round)
Loving (Buscemi, 13th round)



11/11:
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (Buscemi, 7th Round)
Almost Christmas (Buscemi, 9th round)
Rules Don't Apply (Walleye, 16th round)

[Shrykespeare]

Madea helps Shaan takes over first place as we approach the halfway mark!


STANDINGS (WEEK 25/52)

1, Shaan - $801,924,011 (4 films - Jason Bourne, Blair Witch, Storks, Boo! A Madea Halloween; 4 finished)
2. numbersix - $774,415,393 (5 films - Finding Dory, Florence Foster Jenkins, The Light Between Oceans, Bridget Jones' Baby, The Birth of a Nation; 2 finished)
3. transformers - $659,561,502 (3 films - The Secret Life of Pets, When the Bough Breaks, Moonlight; 4 finished)
4. Buscemi - $623,292,607 (5 films - Suicide Squad, Hell or High Water, Kubo and the Two Strings, Ouija: Origin of Evil, American Pastoral; 4 finished)
5. weissac - $494,055,128 (3 films - Mechanic: Resurrection, Snowden, Masterminds; 4 finished)
6. leestu - $466,985,871 (4 films - Sausage Party, The Magnificent Seven, Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, Keeping Up with the Joneses; 4 finished)
7. jas - $405,784,394 (4 films - Pete's Dragon, Don't Breathe, Sully, Queen of Katwe; 2 finished)
8. Shryke - $372,113,822 (4 films - Ghostbusters, Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children, The Accountaint, Max Steel; 5 finished)
9. Walleye - $279,384,931 (2 films - The Girl on the Train, Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life; 3 finished)
10. Ron B - $185,266,285 (3 films - Ice Age: Collision Course, Deepwater Horizon, Kevin Hart: What Now?; 1 finished)



The following films would appear to be done:

Star Trek Beyond (weissac, 2nd round) - $158,848,340
Bad Moms (numbersix, 6th round) - $113,128,038
War Dogs (transformers, 6th round) - $43,034,523
Nine Lives (Shryke, 11th round) - $19,652,955
The Disappointments Room (Shryke, WW) - $2,414,078




10/28:
Inferno (Buscemi, 5th round)



11/4:
Doctor Strange (leestu, 2nd round)
Trolls (Shaan, 4th round)
Hacksaw Ridge (Ron B, 11th round)
Bleed For This (transformers, 12th round)
Loving (Buscemi, 13th round)



11/11:
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (Buscemi, 7th Round)
Almost Christmas (Buscemi, 9th round)
Rules Don't Apply (Walleye, 16th round)



11/18:
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (jas, 1st round)
Nocturnal Animals (transformers, 11th round)
Bleed For This (transformers, 12th round)
The Edge of Seventeen (jas, 13th round)
Manchester By the Sea (leestu, 14th round)

[Walleye413]

As Shryke said so well - We're approaching the halfway point of the draft - so why not a little analysis and speculation:

Shaan leads the way, and approaches 1 Billion with a solid draft and a few surprise. Both Captain and Bourne did quite well, although a little less than expected. He made up ground with The Shallows in the 11th round - and Madea appears to be a winner in round 8 as well. With Trolls, Office Christmas Party and the controversial Great Wall still coming up he's got a shot at the win, or at least top 3. But I'm not sure he'll hold on.

Six had pick 3 and scored with Dory and Bad Moms (in round 5!) but stumbled with Neighbors 2. He's got Sing and The Boss Baby coming up there's millions more to be had - and this year has proven to not count out animation. I think he'll pull ahead of Shaan in the end with those, but it'll be close. Also, nice grab of Nerve in round 14.

I think we all assumed that Shaan, Six, and Shryke were going to have a head start with the top 3 picks this year, and so far that appears to hold true. The question was, which of us bottom feeders was going to hit the right combo to break into their pack.

It could be Tranny. He scored with Pets, and Central Intelligence did quite well, making up for Alice. But he's going to need a break out from either La La Land or the Power Rangers to really make up ground.

I didn't have high hopes for Boosh's slate but Suicide Squad made a lot of money, if not a lot of fans. And Conjuring 2 way overperformed for a 4th rounder. The Buzz from the Logan trailer is high now as well. I won't count him out halfway through.

Weiss really got hurt by Independence Day, and Star Trek and the Angry Birds can't make up for it. He needs one more massive hit to pull him up to top 3, and I don't think Fifty Shades is it. No Division A for him this year.

Lestu also got hosed by X-men and the Mag Seven - but looks to make up for it and then some with Doctor Strange. I thought this movie was going to be too weird to be a hit, but we should all learn that Marvel = Good. He's going to make up a lot of ground in the next month. Add in smart picks of Sausage Party and The Purge and Leestu has a shot at top 3. We should know how close he'll be by the end of November.

Jas had one of the sneakiest drafts around, and I think we're going to see a top 3 finish from 10th place. He got Light's Out (8th) and Don't breathe (12th!!!) and Sully (6th) and his top 2 haven't even come out yet. Fantastic Beasts will make 200million, so it's really Passengers that needs to break big, and I think it will. Welcome to Division A, Jas

Shryke had some rough picks. The BFG and Ghostbusters underperformed, and Miss Peregrine made up only a fraction of that. If only he had a big, monster, guaranteed hit to make up ground. He's 500 million behind right now. Sounds just about right.

I still like my draft - even though we haven't seen much of it yet. I could have done better than Girl on a Train, which Tarzan did for me. I think I've got some late round/Waiver wire wins with Hidden Figures and Live by Night. But I'm banking on Moana, Beauty and Beast, and Kong making at least 750 million for me. Which I think they'll do, and then some. I still think I can win this thing. That's my analysis and I'm sticking to it.

Ron missed on his first 3 movies out: picks 3-5. They're doing well, but not well enough to make up ground. He'll need monster numbers from Lego: Batman and Fast 8 - which is conceivable but I don't think it's likely this year. As the Cubs always say - wait till next year.

Predicted order of Top 3

Walleye
Jas
Six
Or Shryke
Or Shaan
ah Hell, I don't know

[Ron Burgundy]

nice analysis wallsy, always like catching up to see what crap i picked and what goldmines we ran straight thru. And yes, im very much looking forward to next draft already. This year has been abysmal- both for stuff to see and stuff to stuff ya slate with.

[Shrykespeare]

Yeah. I HOPE Rogue One can pull a half-bil, but I'm not sold yet. It should make $400M easily, and that $100M difference could make ALL the difference between getting back to the big show or drafting last next year (still in Division B).

[numbersix]

Good analysis, Walleye, although I think you're being optimistic about Moana, Beauty and the Beast, and Kong earning 750m together. I'm not convinced about Kong, particularly when March has a lot of tentpoles, and I don't see Moana being Frozen. Maybe $650 (250, 250, and 150 respectively).

Rogue One is a bit of a wild card. It's gonna be huge, but not Force Awakens huge. Yet that film was so loved that there's great will towards it. I'd love if Finding Dory ends up with more, but I think at the least Rogue One will be hitting $450m.

Really disappointed in my slate this year. So many disappointments - Bridget Jones, Florence Foster Jenkin, Birth of A Nation, and Morgan. Only Bad Moms and Dory are really keeping me afloat. I REALLY need Sing and Boss Baby to deliver or else my chances in the Top 3 are slim. Also All Eyez on Me is obviously not coming out in Nov, and I'm worried it'll be pushed to September 2017. Think it's the issue with music rights that has been going on. My fingers are crossed for a limited opening in Dec and rollout in Jan, but that's looking unlikely.

[Buscemi]

Open Road's too focused on Bleed for This to really think about opening All Eyez on Me in November. Plus, Open Road's early 2017 slate is looking close to final so you could be right (also, September allows for a premiere at Toronto).

As for hits and disappointments, I thought Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles would do more and it looks Inferno may have come too late. And though it was a pickup, I expected more from American Pastoral (but I guess Philip Roth is hard to adapt anyway). But I'm happy with Suicide Squad (which seemed to really hold on after its big opening and second week drop) and Hell or High Water (a 16th round pick that really delivered).

Speaking of waiver wires, I think Six could have a big hit with Wonder. The book seems to be everywhere and Tremblay's high in demand (though some of his unreleased movies either keep getting pushed or are stuck with distributors who let them rest). Of course, Lionsgate could end up pushing it to the summer once they realize they have a moneymaker in their hands.

[transformers2]

The music rights for All Eyez on Me have finally been cleared and the film is now complete (it got rated by the MPAA a few weeks ago). I don't think it's going to be an awards contender, so I wouldn't be surprised if Open Road slated it for the February 24th slot that Sleepless just vacated.

[Buscemi]

Open Road placed Collide at February 3rd and Before I Fall moved up to March 3rd so I really can't see them opening three movies over five weeks. Also I think Open Road and Morgan Creek (the film's financiers) might want some festival exposure, making the September date more likely.

[transformers2]

It's a biopic about Tupac from the writers of Street Kings 2 and director of Next Day Air, I don't think anyone at Open Road thinks it's going to be a fucking awards contender. I'm not guaranteeing a winter release date, but I doubt they're going to wait another full year to release it.

[Buscemi]

They show a lot of crap at Toronto (the committee's standards are a lot more lax than Sundance, Venice, Telluride, or even Tribeca). It might not be an awards contender (neither was Bleed for This but that played this year) but it wouldn't surprise me if it ended up there.

[numbersix]

There's gonna be an announcement at AFM, so we'll find out soon.

[Shrykespeare]

Halfway done!!

STANDINGS (WEEK 26/52)

1, Shaan - $829,725,390 (2 films - Storks, Boo! A Madea Halloween; 6 finished)
2. numbersix - $775,743,435 (4 films - Finding Dory, The Light Between Oceans, Bridget Jones' Baby, The Birth of a Nation; 3 finished)
3. transformers - $660,888,709 (3 films - The Secret Life of Pets, When the Bough Breaks, Moonlight; 4 finished)
4. Buscemi - $649,577,823 (6 films - Suicide Squad, Hell or High Water, Kubo and the Two Strings, Ouija: Origin of Evil, American Pastoral, Inferno; 4 finished)
5. weissac - $494,449,358 (2 films - Snowden, Masterminds; 5 finished)
6. leestu - $491,436,818 (4 films - Sausage Party, The Magnificent Seven, Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, Keeping Up with the Joneses; 4 finished)
7. jas - $408,093,694 (4 films - Pete's Dragon, Don't Breathe, Sully, Queen of Katwe; 2 finished)
8. Shryke - $391,908,116 (4 films - Ghostbusters, Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children, The Accountaint, Max Steel; 5 finished)
9. Walleye - $288,221,168 (2 films - The Girl on the Train, Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life; 3 finished)
10. Ron B - $191,581,963 (3 films - Ice Age: Collision Course, Deepwater Horizon, Kevin Hart: What Now?; 1 finished)



The following films would appear to be done:

Jason Bourne (Shaan, 2nd round) - $162,192,290
Florence Foster Jenkins (numbersox, 9th round) - $27,383,770
Mechanic: Resurrection (weissac, 16th round) - $21,218,403
Blair Witch (Shaan, 15th round) - $20,777,061




11/4:
Doctor Strange (leestu, 2nd round)
Trolls (Shaan, 4th round)
Hacksaw Ridge (Ron B, 11th round)
Loving (Buscemi, 13th round)



11/11:
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (Buscemi, 7th Round)
Almost Christmas (Buscemi, 9th round)
Rules Don't Apply (Walleye, 16th round)



11/18:
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (jas, 1st round)
Nocturnal Animals (transformers, 11th round)
Bleed For This (transformers, 12th round)
The Edge of Seventeen (jas, 13th round)
Manchester By the Sea (leestu, 14th round)



11/23, 11/25:
Moana (Walleye, 1st round)
Allied (transformers, 5th round)
Bad Santa 2 (leestu, 9th round)
Lion (jas, 11th round)