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2016-17 Full-Year Slates (Division A)

All league discussion for the currently in-play box office seasons.

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Re: 2016-17 Full-Year Slates (Division A)

Postby Shrykespeare » April 30th, 2017, 12:37 pm

I wish you'd proposed this weeks ago, but if we want to incorporate these rules for THIS season, we need to have at least half the participants weigh in.

The draft will be started within the next few hours.
Happy 60th birthday Tim Burton! (8/25/18)
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Re: 2016-17 Full-Year Slates (Division A)

Postby numbersix » April 30th, 2017, 12:45 pm

I'm up for an Oscar bonus as proposed, but only if some others are interested.
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Re: 2016-17 Full-Year Slates (Division A)

Postby Aquamann2001 » April 30th, 2017, 1:04 pm

Vote for Oscar bonus rule. 100 mil for best picture. 50 for best director actor actress 25 for supporting actor actress adapted and original screenplay. Right now I think we have 4 yes votes. In later rounds this will make the draft more interesting in terms of strategy.
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Re: 2016-17 Full-Year Slates (Division A)

Postby shrykespeare2 » May 1st, 2017, 7:30 pm

FINAL STANDINGS

1. Spectre - $1,613,442,652

2, aquamann - $1,397,090,182

3. W - $1,222,729,880

4. UDM - $1,199,043,435

5. JohnErle - $1,136,103,860

6. Chien - $938,657,018

7. Geezer - $896,437,313

8. Banks - $875,013,636

9. Surfer - $814,548,556

10. Brockster - $775,976,171
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Re: 2016-17 Full-Year Slates (Division A)

Postby Chienfantome » May 2nd, 2017, 3:42 am

Congrats Spectre, you've had an amazing run this year, you drafted well and that's an undeniable win buddy.
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Re: 2016-17 Full-Year Slates (Division A)

Postby undeadmonkey » May 2nd, 2017, 10:30 am

Yea, you had a great slate. however did you know all those would do so well?
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Re: 2016-17 Full-Year Slates (Division A)

Postby Spectre » May 2nd, 2017, 11:47 am

Thanks Chien! Need to enjoy it while I can because this draft is gonna be rough haha

undeadmonkey wrote:Yea, you had a great slate. however did you know all those would do so well?


So on my draft board, I list 3 different numbers for projections: Upside/Realistic/Downside so that way I have a range of expectations and can choose between films I think are close. Of my early picks:

Finding Dory, Logan, La La Land all outperformed my base projection and were at or slightly above my upside projection (although I projected Dory for $400M).
The Legend of Tarzan, Sausage Party, Arrival and Fences were projections I hit pretty much right on the head
Jason Bourne, Kubo, Bridget Jones and The Great Wall all fell under my projection (especially The Great Wall, what a piece of garbage)

So... kinda? :P My strategy was to bet on upside and I just happened to hit this time around.
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Re: 2016-17 Full-Year Slates (Division A)

Postby Brockster » May 2nd, 2017, 1:05 pm

I did SOOOOOO bad, wow. I'm embarrassed. Take a look at these turds:

9/30 Deepwater Horizon (4) - $61,433,527 (finished)
10/7 The Birth of a Nation (6) - $15,861,566 (finished)
10/28 Inferno (5) - $34,343,574 (finished)
12/21 Passengers (2) - $99,956,732
12/21 Patriots Day (3) - $31,886,361 (finished)
12/23 A Monster Calls (9) - $3,740,823 (finished)
1/13 Monster Trucks (8) - $3,740,823
9/30 Masterminds (7) - $17,368,022 (finished)

I'm wondering if this is the worst slate ever picked? :oops:

Edit: It's not, I just checked...phew :D
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Re: 2016-17 Full-Year Slates (Division A)

Postby undeadmonkey » May 2nd, 2017, 1:20 pm

I can outdo that. The only reason i was saved from demotion was Beauty and the Beast. and the only other film that made more than i projected was The Shack and Manchester by the Sea. Every other film made way less than i predicted.


UDM
5/20 Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising (3) - $55,340,730 (finished) I was so sure It would match the first, $100M less
5/27 X-Men: Apocalyopse (1) - $155,442,489 (finished), couldnt even hit $200M for a first round pick.
6/3 Me Before You (4) - $56,245,075 (finished) If i would have known the subject matter, i guess i could have seen this wouldnt have been the $100M Summer romance blockbuster.

The rest are just terrible

8/12 Florence Foster Jenkins (9) - $27,383,770 (finished)
8/19 Ben-Hur (8) - $26,410,477 (finished)
11/18 The Edge of Seventeen (15) - $14,431,633 (finished)
12/9 Office Christmas Party (6) - $54,767,494 (finished) - The sole christmas movie was completely overlooked at christmas
1/27 Resident Evil: The Final Chapter (10) - $26,830,068 (finished) - wish we could count international numbers....
2/3 Rings (12) - $27,793,018 (finished)
3/3 Table 19 (WW) - $3,606,977
3/17 The Belko Experiment (WW) - $8,990,355
3/31 The Boss Baby (5) - $50,198,902 - this was actually a great pick too
4/21 The Promise (WW)

Great picks.
3/17 Beauty and the Beast (2) - $393,337,585
3/3 The Shack (7) - $52,957,048
11/18 Manchester By the Sea (16) - $47,677,763
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Re: 2016-17 Full-Year Slates (Division A)

Postby Brockster » May 2nd, 2017, 1:23 pm

That's still better than my picks :) I had only a couple good ones:

8/5 Suicide Squad (1) - $325,100,054 (finished)
11/4 Hacksaw Ridge (10) - $67,209,615 (finished)
11/25 Lion (13) - $51,117,883

3! Only 3! Fuck my life.
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Re: 2016-17 Full-Year Slates (Division A)

Postby numbersix » May 2nd, 2017, 4:44 pm

It's funny, but it only takes a handful of films to work to have a winning slate. I drafted 3rd in last year's game, and stumbled at the starting block with Neighbours 2 making almost a third of what I had hoped.

In terms of original strategy, only 4 of my films succeeded in the way I thought they would - Finding Dory (duh, but it made more than expected), Bad Moms, Sing, and The Boss Baby. 2 films performed way more than I ever thought and are essentially good luck (Nerve, and Get Out which was a waiver wire choice that I thought would get me 20-40m). Then the rest were essentially failures (Bridget Jones Baby, Florence Foster Jenkins, Birth of a Nation, A Cure For Wellness, Morgan), etc.
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Re: 2016-17 Full-Year Slates (Division A)

Postby Spectre » May 9th, 2017, 11:19 am

Brockster wrote:That's still better than my picks :) I had only a couple good ones:

8/5 Suicide Squad (1) - $325,100,054 (finished)
11/4 Hacksaw Ridge (10) - $67,209,615 (finished)
11/25 Lion (13) - $51,117,883

3! Only 3! Fuck my life.


To be fair, you also had the best 16th round pick of all time (Get Out) which would've been enough to keep you in Division A... you just dropped it. :P
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Re: 2016-17 Full-Year Slates (Division A)

Postby Chienfantome » May 15th, 2017, 6:22 am

Looking back at last year's draft, I wonder if I didn't draft the worst pick ever for 1st round ? Barely more than $100M for Independence Day 2, that's gotta be close to a record.
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Re: 2016-17 Full-Year Slates (Division A)

Postby Spectre » May 15th, 2017, 11:12 am

If you're talking current format and Division A then yep, it's the worst. But if we include Division B, Boosh holds the honor thanks to Tomorrowland
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Re: 2016-17 Full-Year Slates (Division A)

Postby Spectre » May 15th, 2017, 3:54 pm

Since I have the numbers in my spreadsheet, I thought I'd put together a league recap since it was skipped last year...

Round 1

The Good
(1) Rogue One - $532.2M (JohnErle)
(3) Finding Dory - $486.3M (Spectre)
(2) Captain America: Civil War - $408.1M (aquamann)

The Not-So Good
(6) The Lego Batman Movie - $174.7M (surfer)
(8) X-Men: Apocalypse - $155.4M (udm)
(7) Independence Day: Resurgence - $103.1M (Chien)

Average: $290.0M

Recap: If you weren’t picking in the Top 3, you were starting off at a big disadvantage right out of the gate as the first round was super top-heavy. Chien's gamble on the new Independence Day didn't quite pan out but picks were solid across the board for the most part. Granted… there were some equalizers in Round 2 but that’s a story for the next recap.

Round 2

The Good
(13) Beauty and the Beast - $480.5M (udm)
(11) The Secret Life of Pets - $368.4M (W)
(14) The Fate of the Furious - $193.3M (Chien)

The Not-So Good
(16) Passengers - $100.0M (Brockster)
(15) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: OotS - $82.1M (surfer)
(20) Alice Through the Looking Glass - $77.0M (JohnErle)

Average: $191.6M

Recap: Mostly solid performers with Beauty and the Beast and Pets absolutely crushing all other picks in the round as they performed like Top 5 picks but most players don’t have any 2nd round regret here as they were taken at the top of the round. Only two picks went under $100M here as they fell victim to sequelitis but that kind of result in the 2nd definitely hurt given how well most other picks did.

Round 3

The Good
(22) Sing - $270.3M (aquamann)
(23) Logan - $224.5M (Spectre)
(24) Central Intelligence - $127.4M (Banks)

The Not-So Good
(28) Neighbors 2 – $55.5M (udm)
(27) Assassin’s Creed - $54.6M (Chien)
(25) Patriot’s Day - $31.9M (Brockster)

Average: $108.5M

Recap: Again, the story of the round is massive over-performance, this time with Sing and Logan compared to everything else. The round pretty much split itself in half in terms of successes and… other outcomes. If you hit a top 5 pick in this round, you averaged $164.6M. If you didn’t, you averaged $52M. Ouch.

Round 4

The Good
(38) The Legend of Tarzan - $126.6M (Spectre)
(32) Fifty Shades Darker - $114.4M (Geezer)
(39) The Conjuring 2 - $102.5M (aquamann)

The Not-So Good
(33) Me Before You - $56.2M (udm)
(37) Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates - $46.0M (Banks)
(40) xXx: The Return of Xander Cage - $44.9M (John Erle)

Average: $77.6M

Recap: Pretty solid round across the board for everyone. Nothing did super well but there weren’t many bombs either. Even the underachievers didn’t set anyone too far back. I know that's boring but so was this round haha.

Round 5

The Good
(42) Trolls - $153.7M (aquamann)
(48) The Boss Baby - $148.8M (udm)
(50) Sully - $125.0M (W)

The Not-So Good
(45) Inferno - $34.3M (Brockster)
(49) Life - $29.8M (Geezer)
(46) The Dark Tower - $0 (surfer)

Average: $80.8M

Recap: Amazingly, even with the goose egg suffered by surfer after he brutally lost The Dark Tower to a move, the group STILL averaged more in the 5th round than in the 4th. Well done. Given that success though, it was a bad round to miss… the difference in average between the bottom 4 picks and the rest was $27.9M vs. $116M. Again… ouch.

And now some numbers from the rest...

Top 10 from Rounds 6-10

(78) La La Land - $151.1M (Spectre)
(82) Split - $138.1M (aquamann)
(71) Bad Moms - $113.3M (W)
(63) Arrival - $100.5M (Spectre)
(64) John Wick: Chapter 2 - $92.0M (Banks)
(75) The Accountant - $86.3M (surfer)
(69) The Purge: Election Year - $79.2M (Geezer)
(81) Boo! A Madea Halloween - $73.2M (JohnErle)
(67) Lights Out - $67.3M (Chien)
(96) Hacksaw Ridge - $67.2M (Brockster)

Standouts from Rounds 11-16

(156) Get Out - $172.5M (Brockster)
(127) Hidden Figures - $169.0M (Chien)
(121) Don’t Breathe - $89.2M (JohnErle)
(107) A Dog’s Purpose - $64.2M (Chien)
(103) Fences - $57.7M (Spectre)
(125) Lion - $51.7M (Brockster)
(153) Manchester By the Sea - $47.7M (udm)
(150) Nerve - $38.5M (W)

Recap: TONS of value in the later rounds including some of the best picks in the draft. Hidden Figures kept Chien in Division A and Get Out has the distinction of being the best pick in the draft and the best waiver wire claim in the same year. Not that Brockster could've ever known what would happen but surfer was pretty pleased. The waiver wire was pretty awful this year though so I won’t even highlight it… unless I’m missing something, aside from Get Out, I think Hell or High Water (aquamann) is the only other pick to clear $20M. That made it exceedingly rough on people who took a lot of TBA gambles as replacement value was VERY low.

That's all I have. Good luck to all this year!
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