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Nobody wants to go left field with me? Fine.

I'm taking WB's Wonder Woman.

Yes, it's currently scheduled for June 2017. But I have a hunch they will move it up to March, in that BvS spot for several reasons. It's currently opening only 5 months before Justice League, which is a huge mistake - they'll want some separation as not to overlap the ad campaigns. Also, I think they want to wash the taste of BvS out of everyone as soon as possible, and everyone loved WW in that movie, giving us WW 3 months earlier would help with that.

They just finished filming today, and I don't see why they wouldn't be able to finish post within 9 months. While it'll definitely be effects-heavy, it won't be anywhere near a Thor or Dr. Strange.

Also, I'm thinking WB will push Knights of Arthur or whatever it's called back again and you don't want to leave that date they staked out open for anyone else. Or, in similar fashion, I wouldn't be surprised to see them delay Kong to the summer if it's get great reactions out of test screenings, and really get the most out of it in June and set up Godzilla Vs Kong with a bang. In either scenario, I think they preserve the March date with Wonder Woman. With The Flash losing its director and likely being delayed, a schedule with WW in March 2017 and JL in March 2018 isn't so far-fetched.

And they've shown that they're willing to move around their DC films, moving BvS up from May to March.

K, done rationalizing this crazy pick that I'll most likely end up dropping in November.

I really don't get why Warner Bros. would even think of pushing back King Arthur again. It's been finished for quite some time and with plans for that to be a big franchise, moving it again would suggest that it's a problematic production.

I'm sure that it's staying at March 24th (also, it has the IMAX screens locked in for that date). If anything's pushed from March 24th, it's either Power Rangers or Life (the latter apparently hasn't even started filming).

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:Nobody wants to go left field with me? Fine.

I'm taking WB's Wonder Woman.

K, done rationalizing this crazy pick that I'll most likely end up dropping in November.

Hey you do you, my friend. You do you

Wow, Banks, if that theory holds water, you'll have had by far the best Round 16 pick in the history of ever. I'm now giving thought to drinking some of your Kool-Aid in Division B....

Another reason why I don't think the theory holds water is that the Batman v. Superman spot this year was Easter weekend. Next year, Fast 8 has the Easter spot and no movie will dare face it.

June 2nd is simply a better place for Wonder Woman. It gets a head start on Kingsman 2 and Spider-Man: Homecoming and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 will have played out by then (and many of the June openers don't look too promising from a financial standpoint). In March, it faces too many big tentpoles (it would fight Beauty and the Beast for female audiences, Wolverine 3 for the comic book crowd, and four other scheduled movies on the suggested March 24th date, plus there's Ghost in the Shell one week later).

I think March will look very different in 6 months. WB will not open both Kong and Knights that close to each other, they cannibalize each other for the male demo and the studio loses. A Guy Ritchie King Arthur starring Jax from Sons was always a terrible idea, it will not do well and I think WB knows this. It will not kickstart a trilogy, and I'm betting they bump it out to late August/September, especially if Chips or IT can't come together.

King Arthur has been pushed back twice, they don't know what to do with it.

Kong being moved into a prime summer spot is more of a stretch, and really has no facts behind. I just think it looks like quality and WB may capitalize on that. WW will make its money on any date, comic book movies are release date-proof. But Kong in June will do significantly better than Kong in March. I'd switch them, and seeing how WB's still seemingly putting their 2017 together, it's not such a crazy idea.

Also, if it's on 3/24, that gives it 3 weekends before Fast 8 comes out.

All in all, it's the last round and I've got months to see if they pull a move like that. They probably won't and I'll drop it for some Oscar season/late April release.

You think a Guy Ritchie King Arthur is a worse idea than Antoine Fuqua's boring adaptation from several years back (where they tried to make it gritty and realistic by taking out everything that's King Arthur)? There's only room for improvement after that one (and I believe Knights of the Roundtable was pushed back the first time more because The Legend of Tarzan had been finished for a while longer and was awaiting release while the second time was due to Star Trek Beyond having the IMAX screens). Also, Guy Ritchie and Warner Bros. are tight and I believe they would give the film the best chance it can instead of pushing back a big budgeted film multiple times. This isn't Jupiter Ascending, a film that was only greenlighted because Warner Bros.' previous head kept giving The Wachowskis blank checks to make expensive duds or Seventh Son, a film based on a vanity published novel that the studio deemed unreleasable. This is an established property that could completely surprise (and I imagine Warner Bros. wants a trailer for another fantasy film running with Fantastic Beasts).

As for Kong: Skull Island, that's had a much more difficult time getting released (we were supposed to see that one this summer, from another distributor no less) and has a completely unproven director with big budget movies (Jordan Vogt-Roberts' only other films were a comedy that had poor distribution and a concert film that went straight-to-Netflix) but you trust it more than King Arthur?

Deep Water I was afraid would be "too british", but who knows.

Wonder Woman, now that's an unexpected move. You certainly have arguments, Banks, but in the end there's still 99% chances WB won't move their big movie out of summer for March. It's the 16th round so I understand you want to try something bold though. But I don't think it will pay off

As for "Thank you for your service", the subject in itself made me doubt, but if American Sniper can get to $350M, I'm sure this former Spielberg project, with a big studio behind it, and the writer of American Sniper at the helm, this can be a player in the awards season and get some decent money, even if it certainly won't go very high.

transformers2 wrote:

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:Hm, hadn't heard of Thank You For Your Service. But could do well in Oscar season with a mainstream cast, though I wonder how much of it would focus of PTSD. That seems to be something most Americans would like to ignore...

It's from the writer of American Sniper, so given how he treated PTSD in that movie, it will probably a severely sugar coated look at the effect it has on soldiers.

Y'know, I still haven't even seen American Sniper. I thought it was an action movie ala Lone Survivor, no idea it touched on PTSD.

Basically American Sniper goes back and forth between Chris Kyle's time in Iraq and his life in the US when he comes back, notably dealing with PTSD.
Without Eastwood, Cooper, and that tense trailer, it's clear Thank you for your service can't do anywhere near those Sniper numbers. But I still like the profile of this film.

Wow, Banks, that has to be one of the boldest moves in any draft ever. In a way I hope it happens just to see something like that happen.

However, while your logic about WW and JL being close does make sense, it's more likely there will be pushes back instead of forward.

Still, fingers crossed. Wonder if anyone in Division B is going to take that same risk.

It didn't even cross my mind to do something like that. I think Banks did it because he actually fears so much that Kong is getting pushed to summer while he drafted it in round #2 that he tries something just in case. Which might just be the smartest move ever in the history of the draft. Chances are bigger though that things will remain as they are concerning those films. But it's fun.

Given that the average return for a 16th round pick is to have it dropped for a waiver pickup, it doesn't hurt to gamble on Wonder Woman. If it works, you're a genius and if not, who cares?

I'll take The Babysitter. I wasn't happy to see it go off the board in the B league because I was floating it for my 16th rounder. McG doesn't exactly make quality but between the premise and studio it should easily be worth it if it gets a release date. My best guess is what was said in the other thread - that it's the Untitled New Line Horror film in September.

I've considered doing the Wonder Woman thing in the past, but never pulled the trigger. I have the worst possible waiver wire position this year, so I definitely won't be getting anything of value off waivers, and that increases the risk. I got War Room in round 16 last year and it saved my bacon, so there are still valuable properties to be found if you get lucky.

I doubt it'll pay off for Banks, but it's worth the gamble.