2016-17 Full Year Draft Thread (Division A)

[Walleye413]

Nah dude, Go ballsy or go home I figure. I'm pretty sick of doing well in Division B, but not good enough - so this year I'm either going big or bust I figure. And picking movies I'm excited about too.

[silversurfer19]

Oh, and also, I have to keep my trend of backloading my draft slates, Right? Can't be disappointing you guys.

[silversurfer19]

I estimate $170M for that one. Course, I suck, so it'll probably make $300M.

HSX already has it at $140m for it's first month, and that's with the movie 10 months away. I suspect by the time it is released the estimates will be in the $250m region, and I think it can beat even that. Or at least I think it has the most upside of the movies I was currently considering.

Nah dude, Go ballsy or go home I figure. I'm pretty sick of doing well in Division B, but not good enough - so this year I'm either going big or bust I figure. And picking movies I'm excited about too.

Yay! Join my team! Go with Warcraft first round!

[Walleye413]

Warcraft? I'm not that Ballsy!

[Chienfantome]

Damn. There are a couple of films I thought might have been taken by my turn, one in particular, and I'm disappointed it wasn't because I don't want to pick it in the first round. Dammit.

[Chienfantome]

Fuck it. I won't take the one I don't want. And I won't take the one I can't see much higher than its predecessor. So I'll take the one that could either show extreme fatigue 20 years one, or be this year's Jurassic World.
Independence Day Resurgence for me, gentlemen.

[silversurfer19]

Bold pick, and I like it. Agree with you entirely, could crash and burn, very likely to meander around the early $200m mark, but could crack $400m even. At a big push, but certainly possible if the nostalgia factor kicks in. Excellent pick.

Now I'm left wondering what this other pick was you don't want, though it will almost certainly be gone by the time it reaches my next turn!

[Buscemi]

Lego Batman could play like a kid-friendly Deadpool: big opening and strong legs but the added bonus of one of The Lego Movie's most popular characters. Warner Bros. is even going for adult audiences by having Ralph Fiennes and much of Arrested Development's cast in there.

[undeadmonkey]

wow.... i do not know what to pick, there so many that could be huge and so many that could fail. I suppose i'll just go with something safe, I'll take the XMen

[silversurfer19]

I'm thinking this may have been the movie Chien was on about. It's not really a movie I wanted, it's a safe pick as you say UDM, but I don't see much room to break out beyond say $230m. I guess that's what got you second place last year while I fell in third, sometimes the safer picks are better. X-Men won't harm you, won't catpult you to the top. The upside of the bold picks can be so great, though they could easily leave you in the trapdoor.

[Chienfantome]

Yeah, X-Men is an obvious safe pick. It won't haarm you, but it won't take you far up.
I honestly had no intention at first to pick ID4 as #1, but I thought I would have either Suicide Squad or Batman Lego available once my turn woud come up but neither was in the end so I considered other options and ID4 was much lower than that on my list. I had safer options like X-Men higher, but the breakout potential of ID4 is higher, so I took my chance with it. I'm wary of a sequel to a 20 year-old success, but the first one was actually one of the biggest films of the 90's, everyone saw it, and it feels like it could more of the same thing as Jurassic World. No one thinks a sequel was necessary, but everyone will be curious to see it. The first one was so huge back then.

[numbersix]

Just popping in to see what the Big Boys are doing.

Interesting... LEGO Batman probably wouldn't have been a Round 1 pick, but then again given the popularity of the LEGO movie and the general popularity of Batman, I can see the logic.

When I thought I was going to draft 4th in the B league I was fretting over which to choose: Suicide Squad or Fantastic Beasts. I would have gone with Suicide Squad. Unlike Batman V Superman, there's a hugely positive response to the trailers, and it has the potential to perform as well as Guardians of the Galaxy. Fantastic Beasts also has potential, but feels a tad riskier and it would be a surprise to see it beat the average Harry Potter movie (around 300m).

ID2 is an interesting pick. If nostalgia is that high, it could surprise, but I think Chris Pratt had a huge part in the success of Jurassic World and I don't see that in ID4.

[Geezer]

Dr. Strange

[Buscemi]

I think Jurassic World was a hit more on 90's nostalgia than Pratt. Unlike a lot of other 90's franchises, Jurassic Park happened to still be a beloved franchise that appealed to new generations (and the first film's reissue was a moderate hit). Pratt just happens to be someone who's in the right place at the right time (his first real test will be his two late 2016 releases, where he's not involved with a brand).

[Chienfantome]

I think Pratt was obviously a plus to some spectators for JW, but I'm also pretty sure half of the people who went to see Jurassic World didn't know he was in it or who the guy even was.

That lack of a "hot star" like Pratt to headline ID4 I think is compensated by the fact most of the original actors are returning for the film. Having Goldblum and Pullman emphasize the nostalgia factor. The first film was so huge in the 90's that even if only half of the people who saw it back then come back for the sequel, with the inflated tickets it will be good for at least $250M.

And besides, who doesn't want to see a blockbuster with aliens attacking Earth in the middle of summer ? Blockbusters these days are all superhero-related, those who like "old school" blockbusters will flock to it.