2015-16 Full-Year Slates (Division A)

All league discussion for the currently in-play box office seasons.

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Chienfantome
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Re: 2015-16 Full-Year Slates (Division A)

Post by Chienfantome »

Only two more weekends and the 2015/2016 draft season is over !
Fluctuat nec mergitur

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Brockster
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Re: 2015-16 Full-Year Slates (Division A)

Post by Brockster »

Sounds like division A is gonna be as competitive as ever this year. Especially since theres no Star Wars Episode 7 type movie that will pretty much outgross the entire slate of other people.
I still think Rouge One is going to outgross whatever movie comes in 2nd place by at least 200M. Giving the #1 picker a clear advantage.

Aquamann2001
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Re: 2015-16 Full-Year Slates (Division A)

Post by Aquamann2001 »

I dont think so. I think Captain America is getting great reviews and has much less competition. Plus Spider man.

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Brockster
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Re: 2015-16 Full-Year Slates (Division A)

Post by Brockster »

I have a hard time seeing Cap go too far over 400-450M (still a very impressive number BTW!)

Aquamann2001
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Re: 2015-16 Full-Year Slates (Division A)

Post by Aquamann2001 »

Yeah I see both somewhere around 500 mil.

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Brockster
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Re: 2015-16 Full-Year Slates (Division A)

Post by Brockster »

I'm pegging Rouge One at quite a bit higher than 500M. Star Wars almost made a BILLION dollars domestically...hard to see a spin off only making half that...there's still lots of buzz out there and the trailer got rave reviews.

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Re: 2015-16 Full-Year Slates (Division A)

Post by Aquamann2001 »

I'm not so sure. There was years of anticipation building up for Star Wars. The biggest competition it had was Sisters for about 2 months. This is a spin off with Assasin's Creed, Passengers, Sing, Patriots Day all coming out a week or so later. Plus Moana and Fantastic beasts coming out within a few weeks before hand. Obviously I still think its gonna be huge but there's only so much money to be made and I see all those movies making big bucks as well. All that being said I'll be happy getting either Rogue One or Civil War and while we are at it might as well not dance around it but the safe 3rd choice is Finding Dory.

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Brockster
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Re: 2015-16 Full-Year Slates (Division A)

Post by Brockster »

Yep, those are my top 3...then everything else is a decent clip behind. Although I think Suicide Squad is a real wildcard.

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Spectre
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Re: 2015-16 Full-Year Slates (Division A)

Post by Spectre »

Rogue One is still a wild card. It's a spinoff prequel that isn't nearly as tied in to people's "favorite" characters like Episode VII was... it'll still pull in the fans but I'm curious to see how the GA responds. I don't see it as an event movie like Ep VII either. It has the highest ceiling but probably the lowest floor of my Top 3.

Civil War seems relatively safe but how well it does depends on where it opens and how good its legs are. It's tracking for $175M right now but let's say it opens to that and has Age of Ultron's 2.4x multiplier... that only puts it at $420M which could end up being the worst take of the 3. Could go up or down depending on the legs or if its OW explodes.

Finding Dory is by far the safest. Most popular Pixar brand, released in summer and Ellen's star has exploded since the first. Nemo made an adjusted $480M, Toy Story 3 made $415M. I'd be surprised if it doesn't cross $400M. I just don't know how much upside animated movies have but if this is as good as Finding Nemo, we're about to find out.

You can even make an argument that there's a couple other films that will do more than these if you're willing to risk more downside. Should be a really interesting start to the draft.

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Walleye413
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Re: 2015-16 Full-Year Slates (Division A)

Post by Walleye413 »

Since I figure I don't have a shot at the top 3, I'd agree it's Rogue One, Civil War, and Finding Dory. I thought Star Wars was the clear pick last year, but this year I'm actually leaning towards Civil War. I'm guessing 500 mil and Rogue One and Dory getting 400 plus or minus. I'm stoked about Rogue One, but I just don't think it will match the numbers of Force Awakens, nor should it. Still, I'd be happy with it on my slate.

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Brockster
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Re: 2015-16 Full-Year Slates (Division A)

Post by Brockster »

So...when are we getting the party started?

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Re: 2015-16 Full-Year Slates (Division A)

Post by Shrykespeare »

Next Monday, Brockster. We still have one week to go. And the race between JohnErle and Tranny will likely go down to the very last day.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Brockster
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Re: 2015-16 Full-Year Slates (Division A)

Post by Brockster »

Sounds good. I've never raced a Tranny before, so I had no idea.

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numbersix
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Re: 2015-16 Full-Year Slates (Division A)

Post by numbersix »

I woulda thought they're not that fast, but who knows...

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Brockster
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Re: 2015-16 Full-Year Slates (Division A)

Post by Brockster »

Some of them are:

Image

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