2015-16 Full Year Draft Thread (Division A)

[Chienfantome]

It's bedtime for the North Americans. Am I the only one not in North America in Division A ? Maybe Shaan too ?

[Spectre]

This American has woken up and is ready for some drafting! After some back and forth, I'm going to go with Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation.

I definitely wanted to get a piece of the summer in the first two rounds and I'm not entirely sold on the upside of the other movie I considered. After the move to save it from the Star Wars buzzsaw, it's in a fairly open part of what is a jam packed summer calendar (especially if F4 falls victim to superhero fatigue after Avengers/Ant-Man) and the teaser got a lot of positive buzz. I just have to hope it's more Ghost Protocol and less MI3.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Also, I noticed nobody mentioned it, but what's up with the new format on the front page? I kinda liked it separated by rounds rather than by player.

Another reason I like the round set-up better is that we know who's on the clock and how long they have pretty easily.

[Chienfantome]

I kinda liked the old way of presenting things on page 1 better, gotta agree with Banks (but hey, Shryke, you're still DA MAN, you know that, right ?)

[Spectre]

Agree on the presentation thing as well. I'm actually keeping track of it that way on a spreadsheet just so I can have that view.

[Chienfantome]

Spectre, I went back and forth about MI5. Maybe I'll regret picking Fantastic 4 over it, it was a safer option, I'm afraid of the superhero fatigue, especially with how disappointing Avengers 2 is. But I'll only believe the superhero fatigue once I'll witness it at the BO. As long as that does not happen, I'd rather take a chance with it.

[Spectre]

I think at the spot you're picking, you needed to gamble on upside so I totally get taking Fantastic Four. It definitely has upside and it looks like an improvement over the first. Both were in a clump of movies that I figured I was going to end up picking from in the 2nd, we just have to hope the gambles taken here pan out because if we miss on our 2nd rounders, there's even less hope of catching Star Wars/Avengers.

[Geezer]

Gonna be a whole lot of arguing over nothing when no one other than the top 2 picks has a realistic shot at this thing this year....

Dude, I feel like you say this every year, and every year you're proven wrong. Chien just won this year and he picked 5th last year.

Was there a 600 million dollar movie last year? Was there a 500? No. Has anyone ever won in a year with a 500 million dollar earner that DIDN'T have the 500 million dollar earner?

And I know I've said it before, but I can't remember the last time. I only say it when there's a very clear advantage between the top pick(s) and everything else. With Avengers and Star Wars, I see that. I see both of them getting to 550 million, and I don't see Hunger Games or BvS making more than 350. Let alone everything else, which will struggle to break 250. We'll see how it plays out, but I just think the difference is SO BIG that it can't be overcome, and everyone else is playing for the Bronze.

And anyone doubting the potential of Star Wars, here's the inflation numbers for each film:

Star Wars: 1.478 billion
Empire Strikes Back: 814 million
Return of the Jedi: 780 million
Phantom Menace: 749 million
Revenge of the Sith: 492 million
Attack of the Clones: 443 million

Considering the fact that everyone hated Episode I and most hated Episode II, the drop off can be attributed to that. The hype machine is rolling heavily already for this next one, and it is not associated with those, so fans will forgive and forget. Plus a lot of people liked Episode III, so that helped restore some faith. Fans are salivating over this. 500 million is the absolute floor. With a ceiling of Avatar and beyond.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Gonna be a whole lot of arguing over nothing when no one other than the top 2 picks has a realistic shot at this thing this year....

Dude, I feel like you say this every year, and every year you're proven wrong. Chien just won this year and he picked 5th last year.

Was there a 600 million dollar movie last year? Was there a 500? No. Has anyone ever won in a year with a 500 million dollar earner that DIDN'T have the 500 million dollar earner?

Well, yeah, but there's only been one $500M earner in the 5 years we've been doing the FY draft. That's not much of a sample size.

And for the evidence of Star Wars hitting $500M, I think most people agree with you there. It's Avengers 2 that I don't think will hit $500M.

[SuperShaan]

I'm gonna take Ted 2

[undeadmonkey]

I know we are all huge star wars fans and the trailers have been fantastic, but I don't think $500M is guaranteed for star wars. It's definitely a possibility but I'm sure the hype was huge for the phantom menace too.

[W]

Umm... Yes hype was huge for Phantom Menace... And in today's dollars, Phantom Menace made almost $750m... 1999 doesn't seem forever ago, but it's 16 years. It's the #17 biggest film in history adjusted, #2 since 1999.

[numbersix]

Nothing is guaranteed, but Star Wars definitely has the potential to be a 500m plus movie. Lots of things can upset that. Poor reviews, poor WOM, a major leak (not a cam), a 3-hour run time. But as it stands it could be huge.

Will it guarantee a winner of the draft? Not necessarily. If there's another surprise 300m film coming out in the next 11 months then there could be another upset winner, even if Star Wars makes 500m.

[numbersix]

Oh, and I'm with everyone on reverting to the old draft format. Makes picks easier to track

[W]

Batman/Superman wouldn't be a "surprise" $300m film. The almost universally panned Man of Steel's $291 + the Batman character (even though it's not Nolan) has to add considerable bank to the film. Jurassic Park wouldn't be a surprise $300 M for me either, or Inside Out, or Minions. That's about it, though I'd be surprised with anything else I think.