2015-2016 Full Year Draft: Pre-Draft Chat

All league discussion for the currently in-play box office seasons.

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silversurfer19
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Re: 2015-2016 Full Year Draft: Pre-Draft Chat

Post by silversurfer19 »

How does everyone feel we will do for blockbusters this year? Usually there are a little over 30 movies that cross the $100m mark year on year, but with at least two potential monsters scheduled for the year, do we think there may be slightly less than usual or will they be in addition to the typical year? I can't help but feel that the huge numbers of a couple of movies will dampen the rest of the box office, yet at the same time my preliminary list has a total of 34 blockbusters with many just skirting. Be interesting to see the impact of the biggest movies on the lesser ones.

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numbersix
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Re: 2015-2016 Full Year Draft: Pre-Draft Chat

Post by numbersix »

silversurfer19 wrote:I've got a preliminary list but probably a good time to create a new email and get another free trial on IMDBpro.....
Honestly, I'm not sure if IMDB Pro does you any favours. Most of the TBA films are well documented in articles littering the net. The ones IMDB Pro have info on are usually films that never make much, and have inflated ranks for strange reasons. I went through the production list last week but only found one or two for my list.

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Chienfantome
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Re: 2015-2016 Full Year Draft: Pre-Draft Chat

Post by Chienfantome »

silversurfer19 wrote:my preliminary list has a total of 34 blockbusters with many just skirting
I've listed a bit more than 40 films I think have to potential to cross $100M, only a bit more than half of them being certainties. Hard to tell for now if there will be less than usual because of the gigantic films that are coming out this year. Such juggernaut films can also have the effect of creating the desire to see more films at the same time, and could also help films opening at the same time which will get audiences who will be left out of the sold out shows for the very big ones, a bit like what happened in 1997 with Titanic. We'll see...
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Ron Burgundy
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Re: 2015-2016 Full Year Draft: Pre-Draft Chat

Post by Ron Burgundy »

I was going to research all this stuff, but when most of the things end up out of your hands, im going to take the wing it approach again. It netted me Guardians of the Galaxy, just need to fine tune those mid range picks (inherent vice was a bad choice!)
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transformers2
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Re: 2015-2016 Full Year Draft: Pre-Draft Chat

Post by transformers2 »

I'd say there is somewhere between 30 and 45 potential 100+ mil earners on the schedule.
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numbersix
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Re: 2015-2016 Full Year Draft: Pre-Draft Chat

Post by numbersix »

Looking back to 2012, there were 31 films that crossed the 100m.

Which is about the number of films I have on my list to make that and above. Of course they will never match up...

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JohnErle
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Re: 2015-2016 Full Year Draft: Pre-Draft Chat

Post by JohnErle »

It's almost time for me to head out of town, but I should be able to pop in sporadically over the weekend. I'll be travelling back to Vancouver on Monday, so please send me a PM or a msg on Facebook if it's my turn to pick, and I should have no trouble making my 12 hour window, although I probably won't be picking as quickly as in previous years. My crib sheet is just too disorganized to send to anyone this year.

I won't wish anyone good luck because I want to win the whole damn thing this year, but I hope everybody has fun in the draft!

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Chienfantome
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Re: 2015-2016 Full Year Draft: Pre-Draft Chat

Post by Chienfantome »

JohnErle wrote:I hope everybody has fun in the draft!
We all will I'm sure. For once I can't wait for the weekend to be over ;)
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Shrykespeare
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Re: 2015-2016 Full Year Draft: Pre-Draft Chat

Post by Shrykespeare »

Jesus, me too, Chien.

I have a feeling I know which six picks will be picked ahead of me, but I have high hopes I'll get what I want with the #7 and #14 picks.
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W
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Re: 2015-2016 Full Year Draft: Pre-Draft Chat

Post by W »

This is one of my favorite times of the year, even though this year I did extremely awful this year. I was thinking it'd be nice to have another one starting in November, but I'm not completely sure. On one hand, would it ruin the "specialness?" On the other hand it makes the summer films more mysterious and the holiday/March-ish/Oscar bait ones a little more clear (though far from exact). If there's any interest I'll ask again closer to then.
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silversurfer19
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Re: 2015-2016 Full Year Draft: Pre-Draft Chat

Post by silversurfer19 »

Still very intrigued to find where I will be drafting come Monday. With W locked as 1st pick, my calculations at the end of Thursday with just the weekend to go leaves the next few picks' numbers as follows:

numbersix - $827.44
Leestu - $805.38
silversurfer - $790.07

I have Little Boy and The Water Diviner opening, but combined I don't think they will crack $3m, while I still have Paul Blart, Unfriended, Woman In Gold and Cinderella still bringing in money. Leestu is squeeking to the finishline with just Insurgent and Child 44, while six has Woman In Gold. I suspect I will probably finish my weekend with a combined total of about $27m, while Leestu will make $2m and six will make $3m.

Leestu should finish bottom of the three of us, therefore around $808m, I should hit $817m, while six will make $830m. Guess Star Wars is out of reach for me. Just. 3rd spot in the draft and the big conundrum it is.

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Re: 2015-2016 Full Year Draft: Pre-Draft Chat

Post by Shrykespeare »

My best guess, Surfer, is that you will pick third, behind W and leestu but ahead of Six.
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silversurfer19
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Re: 2015-2016 Full Year Draft: Pre-Draft Chat

Post by silversurfer19 »

Seems likely, so the choice of the final chapter in a hugely successful franchise that should guarantee me something in the region of $350m, or BvS, which despite it's limited time in release should be looking at something between F7s numbers and maybe even $400m depending on it's marketing. Tough decisions...

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empire13
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Re: 2015-2016 Full Year Draft: Pre-Draft Chat

Post by empire13 »

I think Surf will easily outdistance Leestu. But, still being behind Six means the tough decision at #3.

Any chance we can get this think rolling early? Please? Pretty please? Pretty please with an Oscar on top?

So, W, what are you planning on doing with the first pick? Is it really, really close? It is with me.
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empire13
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Re: 2015-2016 Full Year Draft: Pre-Draft Chat

Post by empire13 »

It looks to me like even if the weekend estimates on boxoffice.com are off by a couple of million either way, we're set. That's including the players crossing over. I'm just eager!!!
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