2013-14 Full Year Slates (Division B)

[Shrykespeare]

That's true, but I think I proved that more than anyone over the last few years. Three years ago, I came in last, and ended up with the #1 pick. I chose Dark Knight Rises over Avengers, and ended up coming in sixth. (If I'd picked Avengers, I might have won regardless of how the rest of my slate - which sucked - did). So this year, I started off with a great pick (Despicable Me 2 was the fourth-highest-grossing film of the year) but followed it up with bomb after bomb, and as a result I am going to finish in last again.

So this year I get the #1 pick in Division B. I'm already sure of what I'm going to pick, and I'm reasonably sure it'll be in the Top 3 of the year when all is said and done. The challenge for me is that I have to, have to, HAVE TO make better picks in rounds 2-16.

[Chienfantome]

So this year I get the #1 pick in Division B. I'm already sure of what I'm going to pick, and I'm reasonably sure it'll be in the Top 3 of the year when all is said and done. The challenge for me is that I have to, have to, HAVE TO make better picks in rounds 2-16.

That is essential. Last year was an enormity because Avengers made an enormous score at the BO, and you can't fight that. But in a regular year, when the biggest movie makes around $400M, the victory doesn't necessarily stand on your #1 pick. Because when we're 9 or 10 players, any one of us can pick a $200M+ film in first round. The most crucial part is to choose wisely those which on the paper don't scream $150 or 200M, but might just when they're released. And that goes for round 2, and 3, and 6, and 10... Even if when you're at round 10, you're less likely to dig up a $150M movie that's for sure. But picking films, in your last rounds, that can grab 30, 40 or 50 million is also important.

[Shrykespeare]

Aquamann jumps back up to third place.


As of 3/30/14:

1. SuperShaan, $1,295,743,033 (8 movies out: Gravity, Dallas Buyers Club, Thor: The Dark World, American Hustle, The Wolf of Wall Street, Lone Survivor, The Nut Job, Muppets Most Wanted; 7 finished)
2. silversurfer, $1,276,343,245 (9 movies out: Her, The LEGO Movie, RoboCop, 3 Days to Kill, Pompeii, Non-Stop, Mr. Peabody & Sherman, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Divergent; 7 finished)
3. aquamann, $1,210,806,462 (2 movies out: The Wind Rises, Noah; 12 finished)
4. JohnErle, $1,206,537,990 (5 movies out: 12 Years a Slave, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, Philomena, Ride Along, Need For Speed; 8 finished)
5. Walleye, $1,096,524,900 (3 movies out: Frozen, The Monuments Men, Vampire Academy; 11 finished)
6. numbersix, $1,014,434,131 (5 movies out: The Book Thief, August: Osage County, That Awkward Moment, About Last Night, Winter's Tale; 7 finished)
7. RathfulProphetic, $920,357,835 (2 movie out: The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, The Single Moms Club; 12 finished)
8. englishozzy, $850,812,849 (6 movies out: Saving Mr. Banks, Walking with Dinosaurs, Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, 300: Rise of an Empire, Bad Words, Sabotage; 9 finished)
9. SleepySkunk, $834,954,270 (3 movies out: Blue Jasmine, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, Veronica Mars; 9 finished)



The following film would now appear to be done:

Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (JohnErle)



April 4:
Captain America: Winter Soldier (SleepySkunk)
Under the Skin (SleepySkunk)
Dom Hemingway (SleepySkunk)



April 11:
Rio 2 (Walleye)
Draft Day (SuperShaan)
Oculus (numbersix)
St. Vincent (aquamann)



April 18:
Transcendence (numbersix)
A Haunted House 2 (aquamann)
Heaven is For Real (Walleye)
Bears (RathfulProphetic)



April 25:
The Other Woman (JohnErle)
The Quiet Ones (SleepySkunk)
Brick Mansions (numbersix)

[SuperShaan]

My total is wrong, it should be $1,391,966,108.

[numbersix]

My total is also wrong, it should be $2,000,000,000

[SuperShaan]

No more liquid lunches for you Six, it’s starting to affect you math skills!

[Shrykespeare]

Dammit, Shaan, I was lulling Surfer into a false sense of security, and you had to go an ruin it all...

[SuperShaan]

Woops my bad! I guess it’s left to aquamann to make silverurfer sweat...

[Shrykespeare]

As of 4/7/14:

1. SuperShaan, $1,401,864,262 (7 movies out: Gravity, Dallas Buyers Club, Thor: The Dark World, American Hustle, Lone Survivor, The Nut Job, Muppets Most Wanted; 8 finished)
2. silversurfer, $1,318,383,899 (9 movies out: Her, The LEGO Movie, RoboCop, 3 Days to Kill, Pompeii, Non-Stop, Mr. Peabody & Sherman, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Divergent; 7 finished)
3. aquamann, $1,239,586,162 (2 movies out: The Wind Rises, Noah; 12 finished)
4. JohnErle, $1,210,276,610 (4 movies out: 12 Years a Slave, Philomena, Ride Along, Need For Speed; 11 finished)
5. Walleye, $1,097,463,215 (3 movies out: Frozen, The Monuments Men, Vampire Academy; 11 finished)
6. numbersix, $1,014,562,930 (3 movies out: The Book Thief, August: Osage County, About Last Night; 10 finished)
7. SleepySkunk, $930,287,822 (5 movies out: The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, Veronica Mars, Captain America: The Winter Soldier, Under the Skin, Dom Hemingway; 10 finished)
8. RathfulProphetic, $921,118,788 (2 movies out: The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, The Single Moms Club; 12 finished)
8. englishozzy, $859,907,749 (5 movies out: Saving Mr. Banks, Walking with Dinosaurs, 300: Rise of an Empire, Bad Words, Sabotage; 10 finished)




The following films would now appear to be done:

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire (JohnErle)
The Wolf of Wall Street (SuperShaan)
Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit (englishozzy)
Blue Jasmine (SleepySkunk)
That Awkward Moment (numbersix)
Winter's Tale (numbersix)



April 11:
Rio 2 (Walleye)
Draft Day (SuperShaan)
Oculus (numbersix)



April 18:
Transcendence (numbersix)
A Haunted House 2 (aquamann)
Heaven is For Real (Walleye)
Bears (RathfulProphetic)



April 25:
The Other Woman (JohnErle)
The Quiet Ones (SleepySkunk)
Brick Mansions (numbersix)



Never:
St. Vincent (aquamann)

[JohnErle]

I'm pretty sure I'll wind up in 4th place, which is not bad, but I really regret not using the waiver wire more effectively. If I had pounced on Bad Grandpa or Best Man Holiday when I had the chance I'd probably be heading to Division A next year.

[Walleye413]

Agreed JE. And if I had flipped The Maze Runner for just about anything other than Vampire Academy I would have made this last month a little more interesting. As the Chicago Cubs always say - Wait til next year.

[Shrykespeare]

As of 4/14/14:

1. SuperShaan, $1,415,996,181 (6 movies out: Gravity, Dallas Buyers Club, Thor: The Dark World, The Nut Job, Muppets Most Wanted, Draft Day; 10 finished)
2. silversurfer, $1,341,311,385 (9 movies out: Her, The LEGO Movie, RoboCop, 3 Days to Kill, Pompeii, Non-Stop, Mr. Peabody & Sherman, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Divergent; 7 finished)
3. aquamann, $1,252,227,718 (2 movies out: The Wind Rises, Noah; 12 finished)
4. JohnErle, $1,211,914,259 (4 movies out: 12 Years a Slave, Philomena, Ride Along, Need For Speed; 11 finished)
5. Walleye, $1,137,581,008 (3 movies out: Frozen, The Monuments Men, Rio 2; 12 finished)
6. numbersix, $1,026,619,357 (3 movies out: August: Osage County, About Last Night, Oculus; 11 finished)
7. SleepySkunk, $994,620,772 (4 movies out: Veronica Mars, Captain America: The Winter Soldier, Under the Skin, Dom Hemingway; 11 finished)
8. RathfulProphetic, $921,357,382 (2 movies out: The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, The Single Moms Club; 12 finished)
8. englishozzy, $863,313,769 (5 movies out: Saving Mr. Banks, Walking with Dinosaurs, 300: Rise of an Empire, Bad Words, Sabotage; 10 finished)



The following films would now appear to be done:

American Hustle (SuperShaan)
Lone Survivor (SuperShaan)
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (SleepySkunk)
Walking with Dinosaurs (englishozzy)
The Book Thief (numbersix)
Vampire Academy (Walleye)




April 18:
Transcendence (numbersix)
A Haunted House 2 (aquamann)
Heaven is For Real (Walleye)
Bears (RathfulProphetic)



April 25:
The Other Woman (JohnErle)
The Quiet Ones (SleepySkunk)
Brick Mansions (numbersix)



Never:
St. Vincent (aquamann)

[Shrykespeare]

Having looked at this weekend's projected numbers, it would seem there are only two positions that are not set in stone, and that is the race between fourth and fifth place.

After this weekend, Walleye should have almost exactly $1.2B, about $12M behind JohnErle. JohnErle's last saving grace is the OW for The Other Woman, which could be upwards of $18-$20M.

This means that in order to pass JohnErle, Walleye only needs to coax about $35M out of Rio 2 and Heaven is For Real combined between Monday and the final Sunday.

Granted, the conclusion of this race isn't nearly as dramatic as the race going on in Division A... one of these two players will pick fifth in the upcoming draft, the other sixth. Not a top-headliner, but still worth mentioning.






Oh, and by the way, I drew the names of the four new players to Division B out of a hat, and here is how it came out:

7. Spectre
8. weissac
9. Ron Burgundy
10. Brockster

[Walleye413]

Yeah, I felt like it was actually getting close. Am I out of range of third? That would make it a little more interesting even still.

[Shrykespeare]

It would, but I think you are out of range, Walleye.

I have aquamann tentatively at $1.27B, and will likely finish at around $1.28B. I have you at almost exactly $1.20B. You'll only need about $30M out of Rio 2 and Heaven is for Real in the final seven days to pass JohnErle, and I think you'll do that easily, but I think $80M is just too far out of reach.