ReelSociety Forums

As of 4/8/12:

Banks
5/6 The Beaver (Summit) $970,816 (final)
6/10 Super 8 (Paramount) $126,975,169 (final)
6/24 Bad Teacher (Columbia) $100,292,856 (final)
8/5 The Change-Up (Universal) $37,035,845 (final)
9/30 50/50 (Summit) $35,014,192 (final)
12/16 Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked (Fox) $132,644,092
1/20 Red Tails (Fox) $49,759,624
1/27 Man On A Ledge (Summit) $18,600,911 (final)
2/10 The Vow (Screen Gems) $123,922,180
2/17 This Means War (Fox) $53,477,179
3/9 Friends With Kids (Lionsgate) $6,726,986
3/16 Casa De Mi Padre (Lionsgate) $5,496,417
3/23 The Hunger Games (Lionsgate) $302,450,722
4/6 American Reunion (Universal) $21,514,080
Total: $1,014,881,069

Barca
5/26 Kung Fu Panda 2 (in 3-D) (DreamWorks/Paramount) $165,249,063 (final)
7/8 Zookeeper (Columbia) $80,360,843 (final)
8/19 Conan The Barbarian (in 3-D) (Lionsgate) $21,295,021 (final)
8/19 One Day (Focus) $13,843,771 (final)
8/26 Colombiana (TriStar) $36,665,854 (final)
8/26 Don't Be Afraid of the Dark (FilmDistrict/TriStar) $24,042,490 (final)
9/16 Straw Dogs (Screen Gems) $10,324,441 (final)
10/7 Dirty Girl (Weinstein) $53,630 (final)
10/14 Footloose (Paramount) $51,802,742 (final)
10/21 The Three Musketeers (in 3-D) (Summit) $20,374,484 (final)
11/23 Arthur Christmas (in 3-D) (Columbia) $46,462,469 (final)
12/21 The Adventures of Tintin (in 3-D) (Paramount) $77,591,831 (final)
3/23 A Thousand Words (DreamWorks/Paramount) $17,422,303
3/30 Mirror Mirror (Relativity) $36,773,242
Total: $602,262,184

Buscemi
7/1 Larry Crowne (Universal) $35,608,245 (final)
7/8 Horrible Bosses (New Line) $117,528,646 (final)
7/22 Captain America: The First Avenger (in 3-D) (Paramount) $176,636,816 (final)
7/29 The Smurfs (in 3-D) (Columbia) $142,614,158 (final)
8/12 30 Minutes or Less (Columbia) $37,053,924 (final)
8/31 The Debt (Focus) $31,177,548 (final)
9/16 Drive (FilmDistrict/TriStar), $34,938,255 (final)
9/23 Dolphin Tale 3-D (Warner Bros.) $72,286,779 (final)
12/16 Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows (Warner Bros.) $186,848,418 (final)
12/28 Pariah (Focus) $769,522 (final)
1/13 Joyful Noise (Warner Bros.) $30,932,113 (final)
1/20 Underworld: Awakening (in 3-D) (Screen Gems) $62,321,039 (final)
2/24 Act of Valor (Relativity) $68,764,310
4/27 The Raven (Relativity)
Total: $997,602,207


Chienfantome
6/29 Transformers: Dark of the Moon (in 3-D) (Paramount) $352,390,543 (final)
7/29 Cowboys and Aliens (Universal) $100,240,551 (final)
9/23 Moneyball (Columbia) $75,605,492 (final)
11/4 Tower Heist (Universal) $78,046,570 (final)
11/11 Jack and Jill (Columbia) $74,158,157 (final)
11/23 The Artist (Weinstein) $43,848,900
12/9 The Sitter (Fox) $30,441,326 (final)
12/23 We Bought A Zoo (Fox) $75,406,975
12/25 The Darkest Hour (in 3-D) (Summit) $21,443,494 (final)
1/20 Haywire (Relativity) $18,942,396 (final)
1/27 One For The Money (Lionsgate) $26,404,753
3/9 Salmon Fishing in the Yemen (CBS) $4,656,430
3/23 The Raid (Sony) $1,249,902
3/30 Intruders (Millennium) $64,727
Total: $902,900,216

englishozzy
5/20 Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (in 3-D) (Disney) $241,071,802 (final)
7/29 Crazy, Stupid, Love (Warner Bros.) $84,351,197 (final)
8/19 Fright Night (in 3-D) (DreamWorks/Touchstone) $18,298,649 (final)
9/9 Contagion (Warner Bros.) $75,638,743 (final)
9/23 Killer Elite (Open Road) $25,124,966 (final)
9/30 Courageous (TriStar) $34,522,221 (final)
10/21 Johnny English Reborn (Universal) $8,305,970 (final)
12/16 Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol (Paramount) $209,364,921
12/16 Carnage (Sony) $2,542,198
1/13 Contraband (Universal) $66,528,000 (final)
2/17 Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance (in 3-D) (Columbia) $51,114,876
3/16 21 Jump Street (Columbia) $109,413,763
4/13 The Cabin in the Woods (MGM/Lionsgate)
4/27 Five Year Engagement (Universal)
Total: $926,277,306

numbersix
5/6 Something Borrowed (Warner Bros.) $39,046,489 (final)
8/10 The Help (DreamWorks/Touchstone) $169,708,112 (final)
8/12 Final Destination 5 (in 3-D) (New Line) $42,587,643 (final)
8/12 Glee: The 3-D Concert Movie (Fox) $11,862,398 (final)
11/16 The Descendants (Fox Searchlight) $82,523,809
11/18 The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part I (Summit) $281,287,133 (final)
11/18 Happy Feet 2 (in 3-D) (Warner Bros.) $64,006,466 (final)
11/23 The Muppets (Disney) $88,631,237 (final)
12/25 War Horse (DreamWorks/Touchstone) $79,837,513
1/6 The Devil Inside (Paramount) $53,261,944 (final)
3/30 Bully (Weinstein) $234,164
4/20 Lockout (FilmDistrict/Open Road)
4/27 The Pirates: Band of Misfits (in 3-D) (Columbia)
4/27 Safe (Lionsgate)
Total: $912,986,908

Shryke
5/6 Thor (in 3-D) (Paramount) $181,030,624 (final)
6/10 Judy Moody and the Not Bummer Summer (Relativity) $15,013,650 (final)
7/15 Winnie the Pooh (Disney) $26,692,846 (final)
8/19 Spy Kids: All The Time in the World (in 3-D) (Dimension) $38,536,376 (final)
9/30 Dream House (Universal) $21,283,440 (final)
10/7 The Ides of March (Columbia) $40,962,534 (final)
10/14 The Big Year (Fox) $7,165,399 (final)
11/23 Hugo (in 3-D) (Paramount) $73,820,094
11/23 My Week With Marilyn (Weinstein) $14,600,347 (final)
12/9 New Year's Eve (New Line) $54,544,638 (final)
2/17 The Secret World of Arrietty (Disney) $18,574,609
2/24 Gone (Summit) $11,653,123
3/9 Silent House (Open Road) $12,555,230
3/30 Goon (Magnolia) $4,088,686
Total: $520,522,596

Silversurfer
6/17 Green Lantern (in 3-D) (Warner Bros.) $116,601,172 (final)
7/15 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (in 3-D) (Warner Bros.) $381,011,219 (final)
9/23 Abduction (Lionsgate) $28,064,226 (final)
10/28 Anonymous (Columbia) $4,463,292 (final)
12/9 Young Adult (Paramount) $16,311,571 (final)
12/25 Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (Warner Bros.) $31,847,881 (final)
12/30 The Iron Lady (Weinstein) $29,647,857
1/27 The Grey (Open Road) $51,533,608
2/10 Safe House (Universal) $124,746,50
2/24 Good Deeds (Lionsgate) $34,664,632
3/2 Being Flynn (Focus) $526,322
3/9 John Carter (in 3-D) (Disney) $67,983,652
3/16 Seeking Justice (Anchor Bay) $411,746 (final?)
4/20 Think Like A Man (Screen Gems)
Total: $887,813,328

transformers
5/6 Jumping The Broom (TriStar) $37,295,394 (final)
5/13 Priest (in 3-D) (Screen Gems) $29,136,626 (final)
6/3 X-Men: First Class (Fox) $146,408,305 (final)
6/17 Mr. Popper's Penguins (Fox) $68,218,041 (final)
7/1 Monte Carlo (Fox) $23,184,930 (final)
9/2 Apollo 18 (Dimension) $17,687,709 (final)
9/9 Warrior (Lionsgate) $13,657,115 (final)
9/30 What's Your Number? (Fox) $14,011,084 (final)
10/7 Real Steel (DreamWorks/Touchstone) $85,468,508 (final)
10/28 Puss in Boots (in 3-D) (DreamWorks/Paramount) $149,260,504 (final)
10/28 The Rum Diary (FilmDistrict/TriStar) $13,109,815 (final)
11/4 A Very Harold and Kumar 3-D Christmas (New Line) $35,061,031 (final)
2/3 Big Miracle (Universal) $20,157,300 (final)
2/24 Wanderlust (Universal) $17,288,155 (final)
Total: $669,944,517

undeadmonkey
5/27 The Tree of Life (Fox Searchlight) $13,303,319 (final)
6/24 Cars 2 (in 3-D) (Disney) $191,450,875 (final)
7/22 Friends With Benefits (Screen Gems) $55,802,754 (final)
10/28 In Time (Fox) $37,520,095 (final)
11/9 J. Edgar (Warner Bros.) $37,306,030 (final)
11/11 Immortals (in 3-D) (Relativity) $83,504,017 (final)
11/23 A Dangerous Method (Sony) $5,689,936
12/9 Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (Focus) $24,149,393 (final)
1/20 Coriolanus (Weinstein) $634,272
2/3 The Woman in Black (CBS) $54,107,365
2/10 Journey 2: The Mysterious Island (in 3-D) (New Line) $99,387,951
3/2 The Lorax (in 3-D) (Universal) $198,204,375
4/20 The Lucky One (Warner Bros.)
4/20 Chimpanzee (Disney)
Total: $801,060,382

W
5/13 Bridesmaids (Universal) $169,106,725 (final)
5/26 The Hangover Part II (Warner Bros.) $254,464,305 (final)
8/5 Rise of the Planet of the Apes (Fox) $176,698,086 (final)
8/26 Our Idiot Brother (Weinstein) $24,816,118 (final)
9/2 Shark Night 3-D (Relativity) $18,877,153 (final)
9/16 I Don't Know How She Does It (Weinstein) $9,662,284 (final)
10/14 The Thing (Universal) $16,907,450 (final)
10/21 Paranormal Activity 3 (Paramount) $104,028,807 (final)
12/21 The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo (Columbia) $102,515,793 (final)
2/3 Chronicle (Fox) $63,951,668
3/2 Project X (Warner Bros.) $54,061,268
3/16 Jeff, Who Lives at Home (Paramount) $3,400,120
3/23 Wrath of the Titans (in 3-D) (Warner Bros.) $58,614,212
4/13 The Three Stooges (Fox)
Total: $1,057,103,989


As of 4/8/12

hmmm, i don't think any slate so far looks like a clear cut front runner.

I think Surfer's slate is the strongest so far.

I don't know, there's a lot of potential in several slates. Hard to say. Surfer's ain't bad, yes. I like the potential of Banks' too.

I seem to remember Boussh saying something similar last year, six. We all know how that panned out... I'd say Chien's is fairly strong too at the moment, but there is not much between all of us, as we all have one or two movies which may not pan out.

Yes, it seems like a thin line for now...

Barcas slate is looking pretty healthy at the moment

On the other end of the scale, I think W's and UDM's are the riskiest. Dragon Tattoo could underperform (not like Boosch is predicting, but I think it may peak at 75mil), Rise of the Apes could be a disaster, and Friends with Benefit could be a stinker. Then again, they could also surprise.

I think Shryke's slate is also quite risky. We'll see how that turns out.

So how would you rank the slates from best to worst?

Hell, six, I think you're being a little kind. I think every single one of my films can under perform, . The Hangover got most of it's cash with repeat viewings. If it's awful, it could pan out between $100 and 150 M. Dragon Tattoo could be anywhere between $50 and $250 million (now it's tracking $160 M/4 weeks). Apes could be the start of a major reboot franchise or could tank like Burton's version. If people are tired of the Paranormal series, PA3 could make as big a drop as the second one did (about $20 M). Bridesmaids could do a MacGruber or be a mini-Hangover. And I have never heard anyone say "Man, Clash of the Titans is great. I hope they make a sequel."

That said, it's going to be very hard to pick now. After PA3, I feel the field is thinning, though I have a couple I really like up my sleeve.

$160 million on The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo? Against Sherlock Holmes, Alvin and the Chipmunks, Mission Impossible and Tintin?

http://www.hsx.com/security/view/TGRLW

HSX is the only tracking that far out that I know of. That's what it says there. Not saying that I trust it, but I personally think it'll be the start of a major franchise.

Sherlock Holmes will take its audience (it also has Noomi Rapace, the original Lisabeth, in a major role).

And now I will explain my picks so far:

Larry Crowne - Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts (both modern screen legends) paired in a comedy that ties in with real life (older adults returning to college or entering college to better themselves or improve their job outlook). Combined with a Independence Day weekend release and Tom Hanks returning to his comedic roots, this could be a big hit and a potential Oscar contender.

Horrible Bosses - I know what I said about Jason Sudeikis being box office poison but I feel that Jason Bateman, Jamie Foxx, Kevin Spacey and an against-type Jennifer Aniston (though box office poison, her performance is said to be Tom Cruise in Tropic Thunder good and a possible comeback) will more than compensate for that. Also, the film has been testing very well and the director's last film grossed over $100 million. Expect Warner Bros. to attach the trailer to The Hangover Part II so to get a similar reception to when they attached The Town to Inception.

Captain America - I was expecting this film to flop too but patriotic films tend to do well and the film is basically required viewing before The Avengers next May (hence the subtitle The First Avenger). It could be like The Hulk but it could also be like Iron Man.

The Smurfs - yes, the film looks awful and I was burned on last year's Marmaduke. But seeing that children eat up this type of movie (a recent example being Hop, despite being a carbon copy of Alvin and the Chipmunks) and even some adults have shown interest (due to nostalgia factor), I do expect a good gross.

30 Minutes or Less - the star and director of Zombieland are reteaming for this. Also seeing that Jesse Eisenberg is everyone's favorite nerdy actor right now, Sony will want to keep the gravy train running.

Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows - it's a sequel to a well-received and high grossing movie that won Robert Downey Jr. a Golden Globe and relaunched Guy Ritchie's career. And they also have Moriarty and Mycroft in this one while also adding Noomi Rapace to the cast. Do I need to keep going?