The Official 2011-12 Full Year Draft Thread

[W]

Surfer takes Welcome to People. And that concludes the draft. Now to see who the Cheifs got yesterday in theirs...

[numbersix]

Okay, so for changes and new movies, here's my idea

Every week (or second week), on a Sunday there will be a day of changes.
Everyone has until midnight on the Saturday to email in their choice (or list of choice in priority, in case someone picks their film ahead of them) to Buscemi or W. They will post the changes during Sunday.
The order of choices is determined by the snake option we're currently under. So for the first week of changes the order would be Surfer, Chien, me, etc.
You don't have to change your slate, the order outlined above is just so we don't have a first-come-first-serve mentality where one active person can nab all the recently announced films.
I would say for fairness that you cannot drop a film that is on your slate or pick up a free film due to be released within 4 weeks, so that people aren't relying on future tracking stats.

Does anyone think this is a good/bad idea?

[Chienfantome]

I'd say it's pretty much a good idea, yeah.

[Shrykespeare]

I'd second that, but I would favor weekly changes over bimonthly ones, especially given the speed with which films are added and subtracted to the timetable.

[undeadmonkey]

just to clear it up, the first four rules, you are talking about new releases and the last one is about any old film that hasn't been picked but has a release date. If so than i completely agree

[W]

Normally, the order would go the other way. Since you guys got first picks in the entire draft, it would go backwards of that (to make up for not having $300 M surefire picks on the board) and when you use up your spot, you go to the end of the line. That's how they do it in fantasy sports, unless they use standings instead (but standings are a bitch to hand do when we get into the swing of things).

And I don't understand about the four week rule. This is a game where we're supposed to rely on how a film feels and during the last four weeks before release, you get more of a feel for what's going on.

Other than that, yeah.

[numbersix]

Yeah, I see your point about the order reversing, and I'd be happy to do that. Just to clarify the order: the order will change each week regardless of who picks and who doesn't (e.g. say I'm 4th last in the first week, but don't make a choice. That doesn't mean I hold over until the following week, but instead the order changes according to the snake rule, and so I'm fourth from the top).

As for the 4-week rule, my idea comes from the draft method having a sense of exclusivity. You make your choices now and that's that. Theoretically a player could keep dropping films that aren't tracking well until they finally hit upon one that does, and that feels at odds with the spirit of a draft game. To me the 4-week rule prevents tracking-fiends to a certain extent. Of course, if everyone else isn't happy with this I'm not going to be stubborn about it, it was just a thought.

[BarcaRulz]

I was hoping that for new movies we could implement a bidding system wherein all players that want a film that has just been released bid on it with one of their draft round picks. So, for example, say Movie X has just been announced and two people want it, one person bids his round 5 pick, and the other person bids a round 7 pick, then the first person would get the movie, and his round 5 pick already on his slate then gets put into the general pool and can be bid on by other players.

I think this is the fairest as it gives everyone a chance to rate a film based on what they think it will make with accordance to their picks.

I also believe that the 4 week rule should apply, in which you cannot pick a film that is due to be released in 4 weeks or less.

Thoughts?

[Buscemi]

We did the bidding thing two years ago when we had players drop out (I remember getting The Final Destination and Armored out of it). It's usually only used as a dispersal draft.

[BarcaRulz]

Would be the fairest thing though, cause people from the middle of the draft will never be able to have a first decision on a film.

[W]

To do a dispersal draft every week really isn't reasonable. It does take a while, is fairly convoluded, and helps people who actually screwed up in the draft rather than becomes completely fair. It's ok in certain situations, like if someone quits halfway through the draft, but not much more.

The best way would be to, say, randomize an order each week or do it this way:

-if two (or more) people want the same film the same week, you randomize a winner (there's different programs online, or a standard coin flip/dice roll should do it). Whoever asks for the film cannot be the randomizer for obvious reasons.

-whoever wins gets the film and a marker of some kind. The marker indicates that person can't win against someone that doesn't have one, so the same person doesn't win every week. If two people have a marker, randomly decide and that winner gets a second marker. That person can't win against someone with zero or one marker. And so on.

-the dropped films go into the system the next week.

[W]

Last Year's Draft best/worst/other stuff round by round:

1
Best: Toy Story 3 $414 M (#2 overall, Buscemi)
Worst: Voyage of the Dawn Treader $107 M (#8 overall, UDM)
Inception $292 M (#6 overall, W) - The last close to $300 M film to get picked

2
Best: Despicable Me $251 M (#12 overall, Banks)
Worst: The Sorcerer's Apprentice $63 M (#9 overall, UDM)

3
Best: Grown Ups $162 M (#18 Overall, Buscemi)
Worst: Prince of Persia $90 M (#19 overall, Barca)
I thought The Last Airbender $131 M (#23 overall, Shryke) was a bust, but it was one of the higher grossing films of the entire draft. Pretty good round overall.

4
Best: Karate Kid $176 M (#25, UDM)
Worst: Marmaduke $42 M (Buscemi)
Two big surprises this round in Karate Kid and Jackass 3D's $117 M (Tranny), but half of the picks were middling or downright bad.

5
Best: Tangled $199 M (Buscemi)
Worst: Mars Needs Moms $20 M (Banks)
The first films that needed replaced were in this round this year. Three films didn't release: Red Dawn, Zookeeper, Step Up 3D.

6
Best: Just Go With It $102 (Shryke)
Worst: Let Me In $12 M (Barca)

7
Best: Rio $93 M + (SS)
Worst: Your Highness $20 M (Buscemi)

8
Best: True Grit $171 M (Buscemi)
Worst: Jonah Hex $10 M (W)

9
Best: Takers $57 M (Tranny)
Worst: Next Three Days $21 M (Shryke)
The first round without a $100 M film. There were only 3 such rounds.

10
Best: Hop $103 M (W)
Worst: MacGruber $8 M (Tranny)

11
Best: Big Happy Family $34 + (Surfer)
Worst: Sanctum $23 (Buscemi)

12
Best: Easy A $58 M (UDM)
Worst: It's Kind of a Funny Story $6 M (W)

So, I guess we learn to take kids films that are cartoons and/or Alvinesque CGI, redos of '80's stuff, tried and true sequels, Sandler, and the occasional Oscar Bait.

[Chienfantome]

My french mind starts to lose ground over all those draft rules coming from everywhere...

Thanks W, that was an interesting recount of what happened in the last draft !! Interesting

[numbersix]

The problem with the bidding system is that it doesn't really work when we don't know the value of picks per round. It's possible a 10th round pick could be way stronger than a 5th round pick, so creating a bidding system that priortises rounds as if the highest is automatically the best doesn't make sense to me.

W's solution to randomise an order and then discount whoever won the previous pick actually works also, and I'd be up for that.

[silversurfer19]

I'm lost on all those different systems. Fill me in when you make a decision...

And how on earth did I come bottom this year when I didn't have a single worst pick of the round? AND I had two best picks! Man, it looks like I didn't have anything outstanding which must have just dragged me right down.