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I think 16 rounds worked well. The previous year there was too much barrel scraping, but last year there was just enough to get by in terms of wide releases, guesses about unreleased wide films, and limited releases with awards potential.

Yeah 16 rounds was pretty much spot on this year, so since we're the same number this year, let's go with 16 again.

Not sure how it worked in Division A having an extra participant, but in Division B I think 16 worked great. I aimed to have every one of my movies make at least $30m when drafting, and though a couple came up short, I think every one of my picks had at least the potential to make that amount had they been marketed/released better. Had I been looking for movies that would at best make $10m-$15m, that would have been scraping the barrel a little, so 16 movies allowed enough movies to keep things interesting, while making sure every movie was valuable.

And I'm good with the draft order. As has been proved this year, while immediately having one of the top 5 picks may seem advantageous, in the end, with some good drafting and the benefit of two higher ranking movies in the first couple of rounds, the gap can be kept small. It'll be good to test my skills against the big boys!

That's the rub... While I am happy to be picking #1, the key to my success may be what films I end up picking with my #20 and #21 pick. By that time, my choices will likely be down to films that may or may not have $100-$150M potential.

Draft order looks fine to me Shryke.

Shrykespeare wrote:That's the rub... While I am happy to be picking #1, the key to my success may be what films I end up picking with my #20 and #21 pick. By that time, my choices will likely be down to films that may or may not have $100-$150M potential.

Yeah, going by a yearly average, you should be expecting the 20th pick to bring in something in the region of $130m, if you draft well that is, and with a little luck you could find that movie that does better. Of course some movies surprise and break out, but I always try and aim to ensure that whatever pick I have is looking to achieve the box office gross of the movie that placed in that position the year previously. So if I have the 30th pick I'd be looking for something in the $100m range etc.

Wow, hold the phone, there might be some drama left in the waning days of this season...

Based on the weekend projections for Transcendence and Heaven is For Real, I realize that we may be coming up on a near three-way dead heat for the #6-#8 spots in Division A.

This is a very important race, because whoever finishes first in that three-way race will pick #2 in the upcoming draft (in Div. A), whoever finishes second will pick #1 (also in Division A), and whoever finishes third will pick third... in Division B.

Here's how it stands, as of the most recent figures I have, including the early weekend projections:

W is at $995M, and will likely earn only a few more million with 300: Rise of an Empire and Muppets Most Wanted. He never got around to replacing his three postponed movies... this is a move that might snag him the #1 pick next year... but then again, if it was even remotely intentional, it may have been too wily for his own good, as it might end up getting him demoted.

Buscemi is at $985M after Transcendence's first three days, which is estimated to be at $18.5M. If it ends up opening even softer than that and then doesn't do well in its second week, Boosh's slate could end up just shy of $1B as well.

Undeadmonkey is at $962 when you factor in Heaven is For Real's five day OW of $25M. Apart from that, he's got a little bit left from Noah, as well as the first three days of The Other Woman. If Heaven holds well and TOW opens at the $18M that's being predicted, UDM could save himself from being demoted after all.

All three will finish right at or just over $1B.... this is exciting!

nerve-wracking, i tell you....

Ha ! Interesting...

Well, Transcendence's miserable opening have all but assured that Buscemi's slate will not reach $1B. It most certainly will not earn the $18M he needs to pass W. And since Heaven Is For Real will likely hold strong, it seems clear that Boosh will be the one demoted to Division B, not UDM.

UDM has a good shot at passing W which, ironically, would keep W at 7th place, and therefore the #1 pick in the upcoming draft. All that's changed from a few days ago is that UDM would pick second, not Boosh.

I woke up this morning and the first thing i check is box office numbers, and they are even better this morning than last night. so glad to be staying in division A, as long as The Other Woman doesnt bomb

I probably should have replaced those films. I figured I'd be middle of the pack anyway and the three movies I could get would be negligible. Now I see that a little bit could have gone a long way.

As of 4/21/14:

1. transformers, $1,274,930,390 - (2 movies out: 12 Years a Slave, Frozen; 14 finished)
2. Banks, $1,233,650,757 - (6 movies out: The Monuments Men, About Last Night, Need For Speed, Bad Words, Captain America: The Winter Soldier, Oculus; 9 finished)
3. Chienfantome, $1,130,453,241 - (8 movies out: August: Osage County, The LEGO Movie, 3 Days to Kill, The Wind Rises, The Single Moms Club, Divergent, Sabotage, Draft Day; 7 finished)
4. Geezer, $1,106,723,587 - (1 movie out: RoboCop; 15 finished)
5. empire, $1,041,602,345 - (6 movies out: The Nut Job, Non-Stop, Mr. Peabody & Sherman, Under the Skin, Rio 2, Joe; 9 finished)
6. W, $996,593,478 - (2 movies out: 300: Rise of an Empire, Muppets Most Wanted; 11 finished)
7. Buscemi, $978,008,716 - (3 movies out: Dallas Buyers Club, Philomena, Transcendence; 13 finished)
8. undeadmonkey, $968,382,037 - (7 movies out: Gravity, Veronica Mars, Nymphomaniac Vol. 1, Noah, Dom Hemingway, Only Lovers Left Alive, Heaven is For Real; 7 finished)
9. leestu, $900,825,605 - (3 movies out: Pompeii, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Bears; 13 finished)
9. Shrykespeare, $871,364,702 - (3 movies out: Son of God, Island of Lemurs: Madagascar, A Haunted House 2; 13 finished)


The following films would now appear to be done:

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (leestu)
Thor: The Dark World (Chienfantome)
Ride Along (Chienfantome)
Saving Mr. Banks (Buscemi)
Her (empire)



April 25:
The Other Woman (undeadmonkey)
The Quiet Ones (Chienfantome)
Brick Mansions (Banks)

Alright guys, I'm catching my flight in a few hours, and won't be around for the draft, at least most likely. There's still a slight chance I'll be online here and there, maybe at the right to draft myself.
But in case I couldn't, I have sent Six and Leestu a whishlist put in order, so they can draft for me. I've asked them to give me a 30 minutes window, when it's my turn to draft, in case I'll be online, but when those 30 minutes will be gone, they'll draft for me.

Have an awesome trip, Chien! (Where are you going again??)