ReelSociety Forums

Standings:

1. Six, $376,545,632 (Tar, Triangle, Panther) - Avatar
2. Buscemi, $374,459,971 (Tar, Leave, Panther) - Avatar
3. Tranny, $373,344,208 (Tar, Aftersun, Panther) - Avatar
T4. Spectre, $367,471,452 (Panther) - Avatar, Babylon
T4. Shryke, $367,471,452 (Panther) - Avatar, Babylon
T4. Chien, $367,471,452 (Panther) - Avatar, Babylon
T4. Screen, $367,471,452 (Panther) - Spoiler, Avatar
8. Ron B, $86,357,437 (Halloween, Strange, Fabelmans) - Avatar, Otto

Picking those 2 indie titles that opened in October before Babylon shifted to a wide release really stings

Babylon is tracking terribly at the moment though. A further reminder that studio executives should stop greenlighting things only they would care to see.

It's guaranteed to make more than the roughly $6 mil I got from TAR and Aftersun, so I still regret missing out on it

The Fabelmans was a more audience-friendly film about the industry and it only made $2 million on a holiday weekend. How is a film that's a half-hour longer, carrying an R rating, and is designed to be as polarizing as possible going to open better than that? Babylon won't get the awards bumps The Fabelmans will more than likely get and Paramount will more than likely cut their losses on marketing and not release it in more than 1,000 theatres at any point during its release, especially with Avatar, Puss in Boots, and a number of other films getting higher priority among chains.

At this point, the only people still willing to give it a chance besides industry people are the few Chazelle diehards that didn't get angry about First Man or simply pretended that one never happened. It probably won't even make $6 million in our game.

Buscemi2 wrote: ↑

November 29th, 2022, 9:36 pm

The Fabelmans was a more audience-friendly film about the industry and it only made $2 million on a holiday weekend. How is a film that's a half-hour longer, carrying an R rating, and is designed to be as polarizing as possible going to open better than that? Babylon won't get the awards bumps The Fabelmans will more than likely get and Paramount will more than likely cut their losses on marketing and not release it in more than 1,000 theatres at any point during its release, especially with Avatar, Puss in Boots, and a number of other films getting higher priority among chains.

At this point, the only people still willing to give it a chance besides industry people are the few Chazelle diehards that didn't get angry about First Man or simply pretended that one never happened. It probably won't even make $6 million in our game.

Umm, by playing in more than 638 theaters?

Really have no clue why such an innocuous take set you off on a multi-post rant about why Babylon is going to fail. This may shock you, but just because I think it can make over $6 million in 2 weekends of release doesn't mean I think it's going to be a hit.

Babylon's not going to open in 3,000 theatres and even if it did, those would be some extremely empty auditoriums.

Your prediction seems to suggest it's going to open better than most films that had more audience interest or were easier to sell. Let's use Devotion as an example. More marketing, a more appealing premise to possible viewers (jingoism is always going to beat films about filmmaking), a PG-13 rating, and 40 minute shorter. It had a three-day weekend of under $6 million. And it didn't have to face a potential juggernaut in Avatar: The Way of Water or a possibly leggy second banana in Puss in Boots: The Last Wish.

In short, Babylon is going to hit the mark that you think it will. It might not even get halfway if it does get the fewer than 1,000 theatres that I expect it to get.

FINAL RESULTS

Hey. I won one. Kind of.


T1. Spectre, $873,839,162 - Panther, Avatar, Babylon
T1. Shryke, $873,839,162 - Panther, Avatar, Babylon
T1. Chien, $873,839,162 - Panther, Avatar, Babylon
4. Six, $873,538,879 - Tar, Triangle, Panther, Avatar
5. Buscemi, $871,467,709 - Tar, Leave, Panther, Avatar
6. Tranny, $870,441,107 - Tar, Aftersun, Panther, Avatar
7. Screen, $865,076,809 - Panther, Spoiler, Avatar
8. Ron B, $548,749,961 - Halloween, Strange, Fabelmans, Otto, Avatar, Babylon

That was a close race