2014-15 Division A Waiver Wire

[W]

Like I said, I don't see the point either way. In a very shallow league where you're only picking, say, fifty films total there could be stuff sitting there that could seriously break out... But in a 160 film league where people routinely don't fill out their entire rosters because they're hoping for American Pie 4 all over again rather than picking up something that might make $20 M, but will probably be closer to $10 M?

And if you're dropping a film close to release it's not because it dropped from something looking like an $80 M film and now it looks like $50 M. It's because it looked like it had a shot at $25 M and now it'll probably cap out at less than $10 M.

Not having it would specifically help people late in the year actually fill in their couple of empty spots as well.

[JohnErle]

At this point, I don't think ANYONE likes the 28 day/4 week rule for adds or drops.

I'm sure we'll all vote to drop it for next year.

I sure as hell won't, and it sounds like Six won't either.

This is supposed to be a game of long-term prognostication, not a game of last-minute changes. If a player can't tell that a movie is going to flop or over-perform 28 days in advance, that's their problem.

Without a 28-day rule, all these religious movies from no-name distributors that come out of nowhere will go to the person who happens to be online when the news breaks, not the person who was smart enough to see them coming.

[Buscemi]

God's Not Dead and Meet the Mormons were anomalies in that the marketing was non-traditional (the former was promoted through Christian bookstores and churches, the latter was promoted by the Mormon church). Otherwise, most of them have outright flopped and the boom that we had earlier this year is dead now.

[empire13]

I think we should amend that rule. I understand not wanting to allow someone to drop a film that is going to tank right before its release, but I'm not sure I understand the need to prevent someone from picking a film up that is available to everyone equally. Doesn't make sense to me.

Because just as you would drop a film that is getting bad buzz, should you be allowed to pick up a film that is getting good buzz or advanced tracking?

The difference to me is that anyone has the ability to pick up a film with "good" buzz. So everyone has an equal opportunity to add it up to its release date. No one is gaining an unfair advantage.

However, like I said earlier, I do understand not allowing someone to drop a dog two days before release in order to pick up something better down the road.

[empire13]

This is supposed to be a game of long-term prognostication, not a game of last-minute changes. If a player can't tell that a movie is going to flop or over-perform 28 days in advance, that's their problem.

Is it, really? If that's the case, we shouldn't allow any changes. The 16 films you draft are the 16 films you're stuck with. I don't think that's what everyone had in mind, or it would be the Top 20 game. So, some flexibility is in order. And, I think my argument about picking up a film, regardless of the time, is valid.

And, it's not so much a matter of evaluating a film's performance as much as it is filling your slate with at least some hope of box office success when you've lost one, two or more films on your slate like I did. Plus, with all the jockeying of release dates this time of year, some latitude could be allowed.

I hope this didn't sound harsh. I didn't mean it to.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Since Sony has quietly pushed Kitchen Sink to September, I'm dropping that and picking up Rock The Kasbah

[JohnErle]

This is supposed to be a game of long-term prognostication, not a game of last-minute changes. If a player can't tell that a movie is going to flop or over-perform 28 days in advance, that's their problem.

Is it, really? If that's the case, we shouldn't allow any changes. The 16 films you draft are the 16 films you're stuck with. I don't think that's what everyone had in mind, or it would be the Top 20 game. So, some flexibility is in order. And, I think my argument about picking up a film, regardless of the time, is valid.

And, it's not so much a matter of evaluating a film's performance as much as it is filling your slate with at least some hope of box office success when you've lost one, two or more films on your slate like I did. Plus, with all the jockeying of release dates this time of year, some latitude could be allowed.

I hope this didn't sound harsh. I didn't mean it to.

Making a decision 28 days in advance is still pretty long-term, but 48 hours in advance is not. 28 days ahead of time you don't have access to reliable tracking, accurate theatre counts, or reviews, all of which makes long-term games more fun and challenging, IMHO.

I already lost my fifth round pick, and two years ago I lost my third round pick (Gravity) which was slated for November and should have been safe but wound up getting bumped back by a full year, so I've been burned by date changes more than most, but I still think the 28 day rule is a good one.

And no, you didn't sound harsh at all. Certainly not when compared to an asshole like me.

The difference to me is that anyone has the ability to pick up a film with "good" buzz. So everyone has an equal opportunity to add it up to its release date. No one is gaining an unfair advantage.

Not really. Like I said above, the person who lives online has an advantage over the person with a job and a life. That's one thing I don't like about HSX. Every time news breaks or a new trailer drops, there's already 100 guys who live and breathe HSX who've beaten you to the punch and made the appropriate trades.

If the majority truly hates the 28 day rule there's nothing I can do to change your minds, but I would propose a compromise for next year: any film being added during that 28-day window should have to clear waivers.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Cybernatural added to the wire.

[silversurfer19]

Running out of possible movies to use my wire position on, so will take my chance on this one which looks like it may be quite promising for the horror crowd. Hopefully be the next Purge/PA, or at least generate $40m in its three weekends. I will drop Suffragette for Cybernatural.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Running out of possible movies to use my wire position on, so will take my chance on this one which looks like it may be quite promising for the horror crowd. Hopefully be the next Purge/PA, or at least generate $40m in its three weekends. I will drop Suffragette for Cybernatural.

[Aquamann2001]

Drop rosewater and pick up spare parts

[silversurfer19]

Pretty certain we are within the 28 day limit for dropping Rosewater.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Yeah, sorry Aqua, Rosewater opens in two weeks so you're locked into it.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Ex-Machina gets a new distributor in A24 and a new date on 4/10/15.

[Buscemi]

Hmm, I didn't realize that had gotten a distributor. I figured it would end up at Magnolia and dumped into a couple theatres (since UK-based action films rarely sell unless it's James Bond).