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2018 Year-Long Draft Leagues - Post-Game Analysis

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2018 Year-Long Draft Leagues - Post-Game Analysis

Postby Shrykespeare » April 10th, 2018, 8:24 pm

I know the game isn't technically over, but it's never too early to try to pinpoint where it all went so horribly wrong (or right).

ROUNDS ONE-FOUR

Biggest Steals:

Division A:
Spectre - Black Panther (#10)
Chien - Jumanji (#22)
Six - It (#28)
Walleye - The Greatest Showman (#32)

Division B:
leestu - Black Panther (#13)
Ron B - Jumanji (#18)
JAS - The Greatest Showman (#26)
Buscemi - Wonder (#27)
transformers - It (#30)


Biggest busts:

Division A:
UDM - POTC: Dead Men Tell No Tales (#4)
Walleye - A Wrinkle in Time (#12)
Shaan - The Star (#15) - maybe the bust of the whole draft
Geezer - The LEGO Ninjago Movie (#20)
Shaan - Rough Night (#35)

Division B:
transformers - A Wrinkle in Time (#10)
weissac - The LEGO Ninjago Movie (#19)
Shryke - New Mutants (#32) - postponed, replaced by Lean on Pete :(
Buscemi - My Little Pony (#34)
weissac - The House (#39)



ROUNDS FIVE-EIGHT

Biggest Steals:

Division A:
Geezer - Peter Rabbit (#41)
Walleye - Wonder (#52)
Geezer - Girls Trip (#60)
UDM - Darkest Hour (#77)

Division B:
Buscemi - Murder on the Orient Express (#47)
Shryke - Annabelle: Creation (#49)
Buscemi - Girls Trip (#67)
transformers - Baby Driver (#71)


Biggest Busts:

Division A:
JohnErle - Suburbicon (#58)
JohnErle - The Snowman (#78)

Division B:
leestu - mother! (#53)
Brockster - Suburbicon (#60)



ROUNDS NINE-SIXTEEN

Biggest Steals:

Division A:
aquamann - Baby Driver (#87)
aquamann - Insidious: The Last Key (#107)
Spectre - Den of Thieves (#130)
Geezer - Strangers: Prey at Night (#160)

Division B:
Ron B - Insidious: The Last Key (#83)
Jas - 47 Meters Down (#126)
transformes - The Big Sick (#131)
leestu - Victoria and Abdul (#148)



BEST WAIVER WIRE/UNDRAFTED PICKUPS:

Division A:

Shaan - Avengers: Infinity War
Walleye - I Can Only Imagine
Six - Lady Bird
Spectre - The 15:17 to Paris
aquamann - I, Tonya
aquamann - I Feel Pretty (probably)


Division B:
Buscemi - Avengers: Infinity War
Banks - Acrimony
Shryke - Death Wish
Buscemi - The 15:17 to Paris
Jas - I, Tonya
transfomers - I Feel Pretty (probably)



Let the bitching and gloating begin.
Happy 40th birthday Josh Hartnett! (7/21/18)
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Re: 2018 Year-Long Draft Leagues - Post-Game Analysis

Postby Walleye413 » April 10th, 2018, 10:37 pm

So for steals, none of us saw Black Panther being the monster that it was. I feel like we all should have seen It and Baby Driver better than we did, though. I remember the buzz for Baby Driver after SXSW last year, and I still kept passing it in the draft. I wouldn't have taken it before round 4, but by 5 or 6 one of us should have picked it up. It going in the 3rd round makes sense, but looking back it had as big a pedigree as most of the movies we picked in the second round.

Speaking as the moron who picked A Wrinkle in Time, I'll say I totally talked myself into it. It had a Female director, it had Oprah and a diverse cast, it was Disney. But it didn't have the love of Beauty and the Beast, or even Cinderella. What we also didn't know was that it would be pretty dull. It probably should have been picked in the 3rd round, and I got snowed by the Disney label.

I know we should't necessarily speculate, but it really makes me wonder about Dumbo next year.

So two years ago we had La La Land, this year The Greatest Showman - both were steals. Now there's a lot of musicals coming out this next year. Will there be another steal or will we overreach now that we see a pattern?

And who would have guessed that between Trainwreck, Rough Night, and Girls Night that the latter was the Steal? Not me. I knew I should have picked it in Round 5 instead of Maze Runner, but I figured they had similar breakout potential. Boy was I wrong.
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Re: 2018 Year-Long Draft Leagues - Post-Game Analysis

Postby numbersix » April 11th, 2018, 4:23 am

Baby Driver killed me. No one was picking it and it was a throw-up between that and Wimpy Kid 4. Wright has never had a major hit in the US, so I wnet for the safe option.

And therein lay my problem. Safe options aren't that safe. In fact, they have a low ceiling but that floor can drop all the way down. I suceeded when I picked films that had the potential to have really high ceilings - It and Wonder Woman. Going to bear that in mind for my mid-level picks next year.

Anbd for the first time ever playing the game, I picked up a film from the waiver wire after I saw it. I suspected Lady Bird had potential to be a strong indie release after seeing it in TIFF, and it made me 48m!
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Re: 2018 Year-Long Draft Leagues - Post-Game Analysis

Postby W » April 11th, 2018, 8:46 am

I remember when getting a $300 M movie mid-first round was a great pick. This year Spidey was a "it wasn't Wonder Woman or Black Panther, but at least it didn't 'fail' like Coco's $200 M or D Me's $250 M." You won't find me anywhere on the best of or worst of lists. Normally I'll find a gem in the mid to late rounds. This year nothing. Hopefully I'll survive demotion.
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Re: 2018 Year-Long Draft Leagues - Post-Game Analysis

Postby transformers2 » April 11th, 2018, 9:18 am

I had a very erratic draft last year, but I'm livid at myself for passing on Black Panther and Girls Trip to take A Wrinkle in Time and King Arthur. I'm going to spend the next few weeks beating the phrase "don't pass on Marvel movies or blindly hope that titles you have labeled as sleeper hits fall into the later rounds" into my brain.
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Re: 2018 Year-Long Draft Leagues - Post-Game Analysis

Postby undeadmonkey » April 11th, 2018, 9:41 pm

I had this cockbrain idea that there wouldnt be any superhero films that would break out last year, due to the influx of the past few years. But society as a whole has short-term memory loss

my biggest regret is waiting too long for IT. at the time it had broken the record for most trailer views in one day, beating avengers or something and i should have snatched it up right then and there.
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Re: 2018 Year-Long Draft Leagues - Post-Game Analysis

Postby Walleye413 » April 12th, 2018, 10:49 am

On a related note - have we figured out when you start getting Avengers money if you draft it this year? Do you get it starting May 4th, or can you start getting it from the day you draft it (Say Monday the 30th when we start this thing.) That's probably a $100 million dollar difference so I wanted to ask.

Not that I'm thinking about drafting it or anything. . .
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Re: 2018 Year-Long Draft Leagues - Post-Game Analysis

Postby Spectre » April 12th, 2018, 11:48 am

Aside from completely screwing the mid-rounds up, I got punished by getting greedy.

- I had It and Jumanji flagged in my sheet as big breakouts. My Jumanji note literally says "this could explode" but because I had them ranked higher than I thought others would, I told myself I could wait and hope to get them in Round 3. Whoops.
- I had Baby Driver ranked ahead of Logan Lucky and it was between those two but I told myself Baby Driver was more likely to get back to me.
- Was there a worse set of back to back picks in the draft than my 5/6 picks of Downsizing/My Little Pony? So bad.

Long story short, I won't be this greedy again even with a lousy pick because it almost got me demoted.

But I took Black Panther. And it beat my optimistic projection by $300M. So it's all good. :lol:
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Re: 2018 Year-Long Draft Leagues - Post-Game Analysis

Postby numbersix » April 12th, 2018, 12:52 pm

So did anyone do well in the middle rounds???
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Re: 2018 Year-Long Draft Leagues - Post-Game Analysis

Postby Shrykespeare » April 12th, 2018, 2:24 pm

Walleye413 wrote:On a related note - have we figured out when you start getting Avengers money if you draft it this year? Do you get it starting May 4th, or can you start getting it from the day you draft it (Say Monday the 30th when we start this thing.) That's probably a $100 million dollar difference so I wanted to ask.

Not that I'm thinking about drafting it or anything. . .


Dollars will start accumulating on May 4.
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Re: 2018 Year-Long Draft Leagues - Post-Game Analysis

Postby BanksIsDaFuture » April 12th, 2018, 3:27 pm

Spectre wrote:- Was there a worse set of back to back picks in the draft than my 5/6 picks of Downsizing/My Little Pony? So bad.



If we're counting picks that got bumped out of the season, my round 8/9 picks of Action Point/Villa Capri only netted me $6M total. :evil:
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Re: 2018 Year-Long Draft Leagues - Post-Game Analysis

Postby Walleye413 » April 12th, 2018, 3:50 pm

For 7-9 I picked Action Point, Granite Mountain, and Flatliners. That's a lot of garbage right there.
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Re: 2018 Year-Long Draft Leagues - Post-Game Analysis

Postby Chienfantome » April 13th, 2018, 5:22 am

I was hoping to do better with my middle rounds titles, but I still got quite a few that made around $50M and that's always essential. In fact all my films from round 4 to 10 made between 35 and 55 millions, which means nothing broke out, and my rounds 4 and 5 were a bit disappointing, but I still got some solid money, more than $200M from my #6 - #10 films, which is good. Beyond #10 is where I didn't score, with Molly's Game being the only film doing some money, while the rest was just rubbish.
And of course the combination of Guardians of the Galaxy and Jumanji was huge. I was hoping better out of Ready Player One, but it's still making some solid business.
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Re: 2018 Year-Long Draft Leagues - Post-Game Analysis

Postby Aquamann2001 » April 13th, 2018, 10:23 am

I played tried to play it safe and ended up middle of the road. How is the draft order determined again?
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Re: 2018 Year-Long Draft Leagues - Post-Game Analysis

Postby Shrykespeare » April 13th, 2018, 2:32 pm

Aquamann2001 wrote:I played tried to play it safe and ended up middle of the road. How is the draft order determined again?


Top three from Division B move to A, Bottom 3 from A move to B.

Since JohnErle is leaving the game, he will be removed. Nicodemus is joining Division B and will pick 10th.

Draft order will be as follows, assuming things end the order I expect them to:


Division A:
1. Walleye
2. Shaan
3. Aquamann
4. Six
5. Chien
6. Ron B or Buscemi (whoever wins)
7. Geezer
8-9. JAS/Spectre (whoever finishes lower will pick first)
10. leestu

Division B:
1. UDM
2. weissac
3. Surfer
4. W
5. Shryke
6. Banks
7. Brockster
8. tranny
9. Ron B or Buscemi (whoever loses)
10. Nicodemus
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